Results

Track Record

Updated Sep 19, 2026 1:49 PM ET ← today's card

Track Record

Every pick we post, graded the next day against the box score. Tap a date for the full breakdown.

All picks139-86

Hit rate62%

Parlay4-13

Units won-7.69

Days17

Date	Day W-L	Hit%	Card	Running
Sep 18	9-5	64%	WIN	139-86
Sep 17	8-6	57%	LOSS	130-81
Sep 16	7-8	47%	LOSS	122-75
Sep 15	9-5	64%	LOSS	115-67
Sep 14	11-3	79%	WIN	106-62
Sep 13	9-5	64%	LOSS	95-59
Sep 12	8-5	62%	LOSS	86-54
Sep 11	11-3	79%	WIN	78-49
Sep 10	8-5	62%	LOSS	67-46
Sep 9	7-7	50%	LOSS	59-41
Sep 8	8-2	80%	LOSS	52-34
Sep 7	8-4	67%	LOSS	44-32
Sep 6	11-3	79%	LOSS	36-28
Sep 5	6-8	43%	LOSS	25-25
Sep 4	5-7	42%	LOSS	19-17
Sep 3	6-6	50%	LOSS	14-10
Sep 2	8-4	67%	WIN	8-4

BAT

Batter Model

Every batter in a posted lineup who came to the plate, scored on whether our published 1+ Hit and 1+ RBI chances matched the box score. The number after the arrow is what actually happened — closer is better. Brier is the average squared miss (0 is perfect, lower is better). The three strongest 1+ Hit calls each day also count in the record up top, alongside the pitcher picks.

Batters graded1,817

1+ Hit said → actual65 → 59%

1+ RBI said → actual33 → 29%

Hit Brier0.242

RBI Brier0.205

Date	Batters	1+ Hit said → actual	1+ RBI said → actual
Sep 18	144	65% → 67%	33% → 32%
Sep 17	114	66% → 56%	32% → 33%
Sep 16	143	65% → 62%	33% → 31%
Sep 15	144	65% → 56%	33% → 26%
Sep 14	90	65% → 58%	33% → 19%
Sep 13	256	65% → 60%	33% → 29%
Sep 12	133	65% → 62%	33% → 35%
Sep 11	241	65% → 57%	32% → 27%
Sep 10	54	65% → 46%	32% → 19%
Sep 9	18	65% → 56%	33% → 39%
Sep 7	18	66% → 61%	34% → 28%
Sep 6	205	65% → 57%	33% → 30%
Sep 5	257	65% → 59%	32% → 31%

BOX

Grading Detail

Full breakdown of every card, newest first. We Said is the number we projected, Actual is what the box score shows, and Our Odds is the win chance we published before the game.

Friday, Sep 18, 2026 9-5 (64%) parlay WIN · $100 → $238.05

K MAE 1.62 · RMSE 2.05 · model said 66% · hit 64%

did not start: Andrew Painter

batter model: 144 graded · 1+ hit 65% → 67% · 1+ RBI 33% → 32%

Player	Opp	Market	Pick	Line	Our Odds	We Said	Actual	Result
Ian Seymour	Boston Red Sox	HITS	OVER	3.5	64%	4.42	7	WIN
Zac Thornton	Philadelphia Phillies	K	OVER	3.5	65%	4.6	4	WIN
Peter Lambert	Atlanta Braves	OUTS	UNDER (more)	17.5	61%	–	16	WIN
Gerrit Cole	Arizona Diamondbacks	OUTS	OVER (more)	15.5	61%	–	18	WIN
Ranger Suarez	Tampa Bay Rays	ER	UNDER (more)	2.5	67%	–	1	WIN
Bryan Woo	Colorado Rockies	K	OVER (more)	4.5	62%	–	4	LOSS
Connor Prielipp	Los Angeles Angels	OUTS	OVER	14.5	65%	15.4	21	WIN
Peter Lambert	Atlanta Braves	OUTS	OVER	15.5	63%	16.3	16	WIN
Ranger Suarez	Tampa Bay Rays	OUTS	OVER	15.5	59%	16.3	17	WIN
Randy Dobnak	Pittsburgh Pirates	ER	UNDER	2.5	68%	2.01	4	LOSS
Clay Holmes	Cincinnati Reds	ER	UNDER	2.5	67%	2.04	6	LOSS
Jackson Chourio	Baltimore Orioles	BATTER	1+ HIT	0.5	72%	–	2	WIN
Steven Kwan	Athletics	BATTER	1+ HIT	0.5	72%	–	0	LOSS
Alec Burleson	Washington Nationals	BATTER	1+ HIT	0.5	71%	–	0	LOSS

Thursday, Sep 17, 2026 8-6 (57%) parlay LOSS · $100 → $0.00

K MAE 2.06 · RMSE 2.42 · model said 67% · hit 57%

batter model: 114 graded · 1+ hit 66% → 56% · 1+ RBI 32% → 33%

Player	Opp	Market	Pick	Line	Our Odds	We Said	Actual	Result
Justin Wrobleski	Cincinnati Reds	K	OVER	3.5	65%	5.4	3	LOSS
Michael King	Colorado Rockies	HITS	UNDER	6.5	64%	5.42	7	LOSS
Nolan McLean	Philadelphia Phillies	HITS	UNDER (more)	5.5	63%	–	7	LOSS
Kyle Harrison	Pittsburgh Pirates	K	OVER (more)	4.5	63%	–	2	LOSS
Walbert Ureña	Minnesota Twins	ER	UNDER (more)	2.5	68%	–	0	WIN
Brady Singer	Los Angeles Dodgers	OUTS	OVER (more)	14.5	60%	–	10	LOSS
Aaron Nola	New York Mets	OUTS	OVER	15.5	66%	16.5	21	WIN
Erick Fedde	Detroit Tigers	OUTS	OVER	12.5	64%	13.4	14	WIN
Sonny Gray	Texas Rangers	OUTS	OVER	16.5	62%	17.4	19	WIN
Kyle Harrison	Pittsburgh Pirates	ER	UNDER	2.5	68%	2.01	4	LOSS
Nolan McLean	Philadelphia Phillies	ER	UNDER	2.5	66%	2.09	1	WIN
Fernando Tatis Jr.	Colorado Rockies	BATTER	1+ HIT	0.5	76%	–	1	WIN
Jeremy Peña	Kansas City Royals	BATTER	1+ HIT	0.5	75%	–	2	WIN
Yordan Alvarez	Kansas City Royals	BATTER	1+ HIT	0.5	75%	–	2	WIN

Wednesday, Sep 16, 2026 7-8 (47%) parlay LOSS · $100 → $0.00

K MAE 1.85 · RMSE 2.27 · model said 66% · hit 47%

did not start: Robert Stock

batter model: 143 graded · 1+ hit 65% → 62% · 1+ RBI 33% → 31%

Player	Opp	Market	Pick	Line	Our Odds	We Said	Actual	Result
Jared Jones	Milwaukee Brewers	OUTS	UNDER	15.5	62%	14.4	15	WIN
Matthew Liberatore	San Francisco Giants	OUTS	UNDER	16.5	60%	15.3	18	LOSS
Max Scherzer	Detroit Tigers	ER	OVER (more)	1.5	66%	–	1	LOSS
Merrill Kelly	Miami Marlins	K	UNDER (more)	4.5	63%	–	9	LOSS
Ryan Gusto	Arizona Diamondbacks	HITS	UNDER (more)	5.5	63%	–	8	LOSS
Keider Montero	Toronto Blue Jays	HITS	UNDER (more)	5.5	62%	–	6	LOSS
Jake Bennett	Texas Rangers	OUTS	OVER	15.5	65%	16.5	14	LOSS
Anthony Kay	Cleveland Guardians	OUTS	OVER	13.5	65%	14.4	12	LOSS
Carlos Rodón	Minnesota Twins	OUTS	OVER	13.5	64%	14.4	18	WIN
Nick Martinez	Athletics	ER	UNDER	2.5	68%	2.02	2	WIN
Ryan Gusto	Arizona Diamondbacks	ER	UNDER	2.5	66%	2.08	2	WIN
Merrill Kelly	Miami Marlins	ER	UNDER	3.5	64%	3.04	3	WIN
Alec Burleson	San Francisco Giants	BATTER	1+ HIT	0.5	71%	–	1	WIN
Bryce Eldridge	St. Louis Cardinals	BATTER	1+ HIT	0.5	71%	–	0	LOSS
Jonah Cox	St. Louis Cardinals	BATTER	1+ HIT	0.5	71%	–	3	WIN

Tuesday, Sep 15, 2026 9-5 (64%) parlay LOSS · $100 → $0.00

K MAE 1.69 · RMSE 2.12 · model said 66% · hit 64%

batter model: 144 graded · 1+ hit 65% → 56% · 1+ RBI 33% → 26%

Player	Opp	Market	Pick	Line	Our Odds	We Said	Actual	Result
Logan Gilbert	Los Angeles Angels	OUTS	UNDER	18.5	65%	16.6	18	WIN
Max Fried	Minnesota Twins	HITS	UNDER	4.5	64%	3.84	6	LOSS
Sean Manaea	Baltimore Orioles	K	UNDER (more)	6.5	62%	–	6	WIN
Martín Pérez	Chicago Cubs	ER	UNDER (more)	2.5	67%	–	2	WIN
Andre Pallante	San Francisco Giants	HITS	UNDER (more)	5.5	61%	–	8	LOSS
Michael Wacha	Houston Astros	OUTS	OVER (more)	17.5	60%	–	18	WIN
Janson Junk	Arizona Diamondbacks	OUTS	OVER	13.5	64%	14.4	9	LOSS
Hunter Brown	Kansas City Royals	OUTS	OVER	15.5	63%	16.4	15	LOSS
Walker Buehler	Colorado Rockies	OUTS	OVER	13.5	62%	14.4	14	WIN
Michael Soroka	Miami Marlins	ER	UNDER	2.5	68%	2.03	1	WIN
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Cincinnati Reds	ER	UNDER	2.5	67%	2.07	0	WIN
Yandy Díaz	Athletics	BATTER	1+ HIT	0.5	75%	–	0	LOSS
Freddie Freeman	Cincinnati Reds	BATTER	1+ HIT	0.5	73%	–	3	WIN
Drake Baldwin	Chicago Cubs	BATTER	1+ HIT	0.5	73%	–	2	WIN

Monday, Sep 14, 2026 11-3 (79%) parlay WIN · $100 → $252.45

K MAE 1.41 · RMSE 1.74 · model said 64% · hit 79%

batter model: 90 graded · 1+ hit 65% → 58% · 1+ RBI 33% → 19%

Player	Opp	Market	Pick	Line	Our Odds	We Said	Actual	Result
Troy Melton	Toronto Blue Jays	ER	UNDER	2.5	66%	2.11	2	WIN
Will Warren	Minnesota Twins	HITS	UNDER	5.5	60%	5.08	5	WIN
Casey Mize	Colorado Rockies	HITS	UNDER (more)	5.5	60%	–	8	LOSS
Tomoyuki Sugano	San Diego Padres	K	UNDER (more)	3.5	58%	–	2	WIN
José Soriano	Detroit Tigers	HITS	UNDER (more)	5.5	60%	–	5	WIN
Brandon Young	New York Mets	HITS	UNDER (more)	5.5	59%	–	5	WIN
David Peterson	Atlanta Braves	OUTS	OVER	14.5	64%	15.4	18	WIN
Tarik Skubal	Cincinnati Reds	OUTS	OVER	16.5	64%	17.3	21	WIN
Will Warren	Minnesota Twins	OUTS	OVER	14.5	61%	15.3	17	WIN
Reid Detmers	Seattle Mariners	ER	UNDER	2.5	64%	2.21	3	LOSS
Tomoyuki Sugano	San Diego Padres	ER	UNDER	3.5	63%	3.13	6	LOSS
Jake McCarthy	San Diego Padres	BATTER	1+ HIT	0.5	71%	–	2	WIN
Elly De La Cruz	Los Angeles Dodgers	BATTER	1+ HIT	0.5	71%	–	1	WIN
Alec Burleson	San Francisco Giants	BATTER	1+ HIT	0.5	70%	–	2	WIN

Sunday, Sep 13, 2026 9-5 (64%) parlay LOSS · $100 → $0.00

K MAE 1.28 · RMSE 1.59 · model said 66% · hit 64%

batter model: 256 graded · 1+ hit 65% → 60% · 1+ RBI 33% → 29%

Player	Opp	Market	Pick	Line	Our Odds	We Said	Actual	Result
Trevor Rogers	Toronto Blue Jays	OUTS	UNDER	18.5	64%	17.1	18	WIN
Michael McGreevy	Chicago White Sox	OUTS	UNDER	17.5	62%	16.5	18	LOSS
Gabriel Hughes	Detroit Tigers	K	OVER (more)	3.5	63%	–	2	LOSS
Christian Scott	New York Yankees	ER	UNDER (more)	2.5	65%	–	2	WIN
Payton Tolle	Kansas City Royals	ER	UNDER (more)	2.5	64%	–	0	WIN
Freddy Peralta	Houston Astros	ER	OVER (more)	1.5	64%	–	0	LOSS
Freddy Peralta	Houston Astros	OUTS	OVER	15.5	65%	16.5	15	LOSS
Michael McGreevy	Chicago White Sox	OUTS	OVER	15.5	64%	16.5	18	WIN
Hayden Wesneski	Tampa Bay Rays	OUTS	OVER	15.5	61%	16.3	9	LOSS
Grayson Rodriguez	Washington Nationals	ER	UNDER	3.5	65%	3.03	2	WIN
Andrew Painter	Atlanta Braves	ER	UNDER	3.5	64%	3.04	1	WIN
Michael Harris II	Philadelphia Phillies	BATTER	1+ HIT	0.5	73%	–	3	WIN
Yandy Díaz	Houston Astros	BATTER	1+ HIT	0.5	72%	–	2	WIN
Alec Burleson	Chicago White Sox	BATTER	1+ HIT	0.5	72%	–	1	WIN

Saturday, Sep 12, 2026 8-5 (62%) parlay LOSS · $100 → $0.00

K MAE 1.79 · RMSE 2.17 · model said 65% · hit 62%

batter model: 133 graded · 1+ hit 65% → 62% · 1+ RBI 33% → 35%

Player	Opp	Market	Pick	Line	Our Odds	We Said	Actual	Result
Michael King	San Francisco Giants	ER	UNDER	2.5	65%	2.05	3	LOSS
Andrew Alvarez	Los Angeles Angels	OUTS	OVER	14.5	60%	15.1	21	WIN
Tanner Gordon	Detroit Tigers	HITS	UNDER (more)	6.5	64%	–	10	LOSS
Brandon Pfaadt	Texas Rangers	OUTS	OVER (more)	17.5	59%	–	20	WIN
Connor Prielipp	Cleveland Guardians	K	OVER (more)	3.5	66%	–	1	LOSS
Zac Thornton	New York Yankees	K	OVER (more)	3.5	66%	–	4	WIN
Michael King	San Francisco Giants	OUTS	OVER	16.5	64%	17.3	21	WIN
Walbert Ureña	Washington Nationals	OUTS	OVER	15.5	59%	16.2	18	WIN
Andrew Alvarez	Los Angeles Angels	ER	UNDER	2.5	67%	2.03	0	WIN
Tyler Glasnow	Miami Marlins	ER	UNDER	2.5	67%	2.05	4	LOSS
Kevin McGonigle	Colorado Rockies	BATTER	1+ HIT	0.5	72%	–	2	WIN
Hao-Yu Lee	Colorado Rockies	BATTER	1+ HIT	0.5	71%	–	3	WIN
Freddie Freeman	Miami Marlins	BATTER	1+ HIT	0.5	71%	–	0	LOSS

Friday, Sep 11, 2026 11-3 (79%) parlay WIN · $100 → $253.17

K MAE 1.78 · RMSE 2.15 · model said 65% · hit 79%

batter model: 241 graded · 1+ hit 65% → 57% · 1+ RBI 32% → 27%

Player	Opp	Market	Pick	Line	Our Odds	We Said	Actual	Result
Anthony Kay	St. Louis Cardinals	OUTS	UNDER	15.5	62%	14.6	12	WIN
Yusei Kikuchi	Washington Nationals	HITS	UNDER	5.5	63%	4.9	3	WIN
Chris Bassitt	Toronto Blue Jays	OUTS	UNDER (more)	17.5	62%	–	15	WIN
Parker Messick	Minnesota Twins	ER	UNDER (more)	2.5	66%	–	1	WIN
George Kirby	Athletics	HITS	OVER (more)	5.5	61%	–	9	WIN
Sonny Gray	Kansas City Royals	ER	UNDER (more)	2.5	64%	–	3	LOSS
Taj Bradley	Cleveland Guardians	OUTS	OVER	15.5	64%	16.5	18	WIN
Aaron Nola	Atlanta Braves	OUTS	OVER	15.5	63%	16.3	19	WIN
Carlos Rodón	New York Mets	OUTS	OVER	13.5	61%	14.2	19	WIN
Nolan McLean	New York Yankees	ER	UNDER	2.5	65%	2.12	5	LOSS
Jeffrey Springs	Seattle Mariners	ER	UNDER	3.5	63%	3.09	2	WIN
Jeff McNeil	Seattle Mariners	BATTER	1+ HIT	0.5	73%	–	2	WIN
Brett Bateman	Baltimore Orioles	BATTER	1+ HIT	0.5	73%	–	3	WIN
Yandy Díaz	Houston Astros	BATTER	1+ HIT	0.5	73%	–	0	LOSS

Thursday, Sep 10, 2026 8-5 (62%) parlay LOSS · $100 → $0.00

K MAE 2.51 · RMSE 2.95 · model said 64% · hit 62%

batter model: 54 graded · 1+ hit 65% → 46% · 1+ RBI 32% → 19%

Player	Opp	Market	Pick	Line	Our Odds	We Said	Actual	Result
Jared Jones	Chicago White Sox	OUTS	UNDER	15.5	63%	13.6	21	LOSS
Ryan Feltner	New York Yankees	K	UNDER	4.5	60%	4.1	2	WIN
Nick Martinez	Atlanta Braves	ER	UNDER (more)	2.5	65%	–	0	WIN
Zack Wheeler	Houston Astros	ER	UNDER (more)	2.5	65%	–	1	WIN
Jacob deGrom	Seattle Mariners	HITS	OVER (more)	3.5	60%	–	1	LOSS
Max Fried	Colorado Rockies	K	UNDER (more)	5.5	54%	–	7	LOSS
Nick Martinez	Atlanta Braves	OUTS	OVER	16.5	62%	17.4	19	WIN
Zack Wheeler	Houston Astros	OUTS	OVER	15.5	61%	16.4	21	WIN
Max Fried	Colorado Rockies	OUTS	OVER	15.5	60%	16.4	10	LOSS
Jacob deGrom	Seattle Mariners	ER	UNDER	2.5	67%	2.08	0	WIN
Luis Arraez	Houston Astros	BATTER	1+ HIT	0.5	73%	–	1	WIN
Drake Baldwin	Tampa Bay Rays	BATTER	1+ HIT	0.5	73%	–	1	WIN
Michael Harris II	Tampa Bay Rays	BATTER	1+ HIT	0.5	72%	–	0	LOSS

Wednesday, Sep 9, 2026 7-7 (50%) parlay LOSS · $100 → $0.00

K MAE 1.74 · RMSE 2.15 · model said 65% · hit 50%

batter model: 18 graded · 1+ hit 65% → 56% · 1+ RBI 33% → 39%

Player	Opp	Market	Pick	Line	Our Odds	We Said	Actual	Result
Kevin Gausman	Milwaukee Brewers	OUTS	UNDER	17.5	60%	15.9	12	WIN
Hunter Brown	Philadelphia Phillies	HITS	UNDER	5.5	66%	4.74	7	LOSS
Walker Buehler	Washington Nationals	K	OVER (more)	3.5	65%	–	4	WIN
Logan Henderson	Chicago Cubs	K	UNDER (more)	6.5	65%	–	6	WIN
Ryan Johnson	Boston Red Sox	HITS	UNDER (more)	5.5	63%	–	5	WIN
Cristopher Sánchez	Houston Astros	ER	UNDER (more)	2.5	66%	–	6	LOSS
Jake Bennett	Los Angeles Angels	OUTS	OVER	16.5	63%	17.4	16	LOSS
Foster Griffin	Baltimore Orioles	OUTS	OVER	15.5	63%	16.4	7	LOSS
Janson Junk	New York Mets	OUTS	OVER	14.5	62%	15.3	9	LOSS
Logan Henderson	Chicago Cubs	ER	UNDER	2.5	68%	2.02	0	WIN
Janson Junk	New York Mets	ER	UNDER	2.5	66%	2.11	8	LOSS
Kevin McGonigle	Minnesota Twins	BATTER	1+ HIT	0.5	70%	–	1	WIN
Hao-Yu Lee	Minnesota Twins	BATTER	1+ HIT	0.5	69%	–	0	LOSS
Colt Keith	Minnesota Twins	BATTER	1+ HIT	0.5	68%	–	1	WIN

Tuesday, Sep 8, 2026 8-2 (80%) parlay LOSS · $100 → $0.00

K MAE 2.15 · RMSE 2.37 · model said 63% · hit 80%

Player	Opp	Market	Pick	Line	Our Odds	We Said	Actual	Result
Casey Mize	Washington Nationals	ER	UNDER	2.5	68%	2.01	3	LOSS
Jacob Misiorowski	Chicago Cubs	HITS	UNDER	4.5	62%	4.02	4	WIN
Drew Anderson	Minnesota Twins	K	OVER (more)	3.5	59%	–	4	WIN
Bubba Chandler	Chicago White Sox	OUTS	UNDER (more)	15.5	57%	–	18	LOSS
Tarik Skubal	Cincinnati Reds	ER	UNDER (more)	2.5	66%	–	2	WIN
Cam Schlittler	Colorado Rockies	K	OVER (more)	6.5	58%	–	10	WIN
Patrick Sandoval	Los Angeles Angels	OUTS	OVER	14.5	65%	15.4	18	WIN
Tarik Skubal	Cincinnati Reds	OUTS	OVER	16.5	65%	17.4	22	WIN
Jacob Misiorowski	Chicago Cubs	OUTS	OVER	15.5	64%	16.5	19	WIN
Gabriel Hughes	New York Yankees	ER	UNDER	3.5	65%	3.02	1	WIN

Monday, Sep 7, 2026 8-4 (67%) parlay LOSS · $100 → $0.00

K MAE 2.07 · RMSE 2.43 · model said 65% · hit 67%

batter model: 18 graded · 1+ hit 66% → 61% · 1+ RBI 34% → 28%

Player	Opp	Market	Pick	Line	Our Odds	We Said	Actual	Result
Grayson Rodriguez	Boston Red Sox	HITS	UNDER	5.5	59%	5.16	6	LOSS
Jesús Luzardo	Atlanta Braves	K	OVER	6.5	58%	7.3	12	WIN
Grant Holmes	Philadelphia Phillies	ER	UNDER (more)	2.5	68%	–	0	WIN
Matthew Boyd	Milwaukee Brewers	K	OVER (more)	3.5	57%	–	7	WIN
Eury Pérez	New York Mets	ER	UNDER (more)	2.5	66%	–	5	LOSS
Joey Cantillo	Baltimore Orioles	ER	UNDER (more)	2.5	66%	–	4	LOSS
Matthew Boyd	Milwaukee Brewers	OUTS	OVER	15.5	64%	16.5	21	WIN
Troy Melton	Minnesota Twins	OUTS	OVER	16.5	64%	17.4	17	WIN
Jesús Luzardo	Atlanta Braves	OUTS	OVER	17.5	63%	18.4	27	WIN
Otto Lopez	New York Mets	BATTER	1+ HIT	0.5	71%	–	1	WIN
Ketel Marte	Kansas City Royals	BATTER	1+ HIT	0.5	70%	–	1	WIN
Kyle Stowers	New York Mets	BATTER	1+ HIT	0.5	70%	–	0	LOSS

Sunday, Sep 6, 2026 11-3 (79%) parlay LOSS · $100 → $0.00

K MAE 2.11 · RMSE 2.49 · model said 65% · hit 79%

batter model: 205 graded · 1+ hit 65% → 57% · 1+ RBI 33% → 30%

Player	Opp	Market	Pick	Line	Our Odds	We Said	Actual	Result
Andrew Alvarez	Los Angeles Dodgers	K	OVER	3.5	61%	4.2	5	WIN
Tyler Phillips	Chicago Cubs	HITS	UNDER	4.5	62%	4.06	5	LOSS
MacKenzie Gore	Tampa Bay Rays	HITS	UNDER (more)	5.5	61%	–	8	LOSS
Kyle Leahy	Colorado Rockies	OUTS	UNDER (more)	14.5	56%	–	8	WIN
Walbert Ureña	Pittsburgh Pirates	ER	UNDER (more)	2.5	68%	–	1	WIN
Tyler Mahle	Philadelphia Phillies	HITS	UNDER (more)	5.5	59%	–	4	WIN
Michael King	New York Yankees	OUTS	OVER	16.5	65%	17.4	18	WIN
Tyler Mahle	Philadelphia Phillies	OUTS	OVER	15.5	64%	16.4	18	WIN
Randy Dobnak	Toronto Blue Jays	OUTS	OVER	15.5	63%	16.4	18	WIN
Christian Scott	San Francisco Giants	ER	UNDER	2.5	67%	2.06	2	WIN
Andrew Alvarez	Los Angeles Dodgers	ER	UNDER	2.5	66%	2.08	3	LOSS
Alec Burleson	Colorado Rockies	BATTER	1+ HIT	0.5	72%	–	3	WIN
Drake Baldwin	Philadelphia Phillies	BATTER	1+ HIT	0.5	72%	–	2	WIN
Michael Harris II	Philadelphia Phillies	BATTER	1+ HIT	0.5	72%	–	1	WIN

Saturday, Sep 5, 2026 6-8 (43%) parlay LOSS · $100 → $0.00

K MAE 1.73 · RMSE 2.11 · model said 65% · hit 43%

batter model: 257 graded · 1+ hit 65% → 59% · 1+ RBI 32% → 31%

Player	Opp	Market	Pick	Line	Our Odds	We Said	Actual	Result
Tyler Glasnow	Washington Nationals	HITS	UNDER	4.5	61%	4.1	6	LOSS
Javier Assad	Miami Marlins	OUTS	UNDER	14.5	57%	13.9	14	WIN
Parker Messick	Detroit Tigers	K	OVER (more)	5.5	58%	–	12	WIN
Brandon Pfaadt	Houston Astros	HITS	UNDER (more)	5.5	59%	–	7	LOSS
Robbie Ray	New York Yankees	ER	UNDER (more)	2.5	68%	–	5	LOSS
Framber Valdez	Cleveland Guardians	K	OVER (more)	3.5	57%	–	3	LOSS
Martín Pérez	Philadelphia Phillies	OUTS	OVER	13.5	64%	14.4	11	LOSS
Taj Bradley	Chicago White Sox	OUTS	OVER	15.5	64%	16.5	15	LOSS
Seth Lugo	Toronto Blue Jays	OUTS	OVER	15.5	63%	16.4	15	LOSS
Tyler Glasnow	Washington Nationals	ER	UNDER	2.5	68%	2.02	4	LOSS
Cade Cavalli	Los Angeles Dodgers	ER	UNDER	2.5	67%	2.07	2	WIN
Jeff McNeil	Seattle Mariners	BATTER	1+ HIT	0.5	73%	–	1	WIN
Jake McCarthy	St. Louis Cardinals	BATTER	1+ HIT	0.5	72%	–	1	WIN
Henry Bolte	Seattle Mariners	BATTER	1+ HIT	0.5	72%	–	1	WIN

Friday, Sep 4, 2026 5-7 (42%) parlay LOSS · $100 → $0.00

K MAE 1.45 · RMSE 1.73 · model said 62% · hit 42%

Player	Opp	Market	Pick	Line	Our Odds	We Said	Actual	Result
Max Fried	San Diego Padres	K	OVER	4.5	58%	5.1	4	LOSS
Janson Junk	Chicago Cubs	K	UNDER	3.5	60%	3.2	4	LOSS
Andre Pallante	Colorado Rockies	K	OVER (more)	3.5	58%	–	1	LOSS
Shane Baz	Boston Red Sox	K	OVER (more)	4.5	57%	–	6	WIN
Zebby Matthews	Chicago White Sox	K	UNDER (more)	5.5	57%	–	4	WIN
Keider Montero	Cleveland Guardians	K	UNDER (more)	3.5	57%	–	4	LOSS
Keider Montero	Cleveland Guardians	OUTS	OVER	15.5	65%	16.4	12	LOSS
Erick Fedde	Minnesota Twins	OUTS	OVER	13.5	64%	14.4	15	WIN
Merrill Kelly	Houston Astros	OUTS	OVER	15.5	64%	16.5	18	WIN
Nolan McLean	San Francisco Giants	ER	UNDER	2.5	68%	2.01	2	WIN
Nick Martinez	Texas Rangers	ER	UNDER	2.5	67%	2.06	3	LOSS
Keider Montero	Cleveland Guardians	ER	UNDER	2.5	67%	2.06	6	LOSS

Thursday, Sep 3, 2026 6-6 (50%) parlay LOSS · $100 → $0.00

K MAE 1.68 · RMSE 1.93 · model said 60% · hit 50%

Player	Opp	Market	Pick	Line	Our Odds	We Said	Actual	Result
Cal Quantrill	Tampa Bay Rays	K	OVER	3.5	58%	4.2	5	WIN
Jack Perkins	Seattle Mariners	K	UNDER	5.5	57%	5.3	7	LOSS
Tarik Skubal	St. Louis Cardinals	K	OVER (more)	5.5	56%	–	6	WIN
Brandon Young	Boston Red Sox	K	UNDER (more)	4.5	56%	–	7	LOSS
José Soriano	Cleveland Guardians	K	OVER (more)	4.5	56%	–	2	LOSS
Luis Castillo	Houston Astros	K	UNDER (more)	4.5	56%	–	3	WIN
Jack Perkins	Seattle Mariners	OUTS	OVER	13.5	65%	14.4	9	LOSS
José Soriano	Cleveland Guardians	OUTS	OVER	15.5	62%	16.4	14	LOSS
Hunter Brown	Chicago White Sox	OUTS	OVER	15.5	62%	16.3	18	WIN
Tarik Skubal	St. Louis Cardinals	ER	UNDER	2.5	66%	2.1	2	WIN
José Soriano	Cleveland Guardians	ER	UNDER	2.5	66%	2.11	3	LOSS
Hunter Brown	Chicago White Sox	ER	UNDER	2.5	65%	2.13	2	WIN

Wednesday, Sep 2, 2026 8-4 (67%) parlay WIN · $100 → $186.98

K MAE 1.97 · RMSE 2.42 · model said 65% · hit 67%

Player	Opp	Market	Pick	Line	Our Odds	We Said	Actual	Result
David Peterson	Milwaukee Brewers	K	OVER	3.5	70%	4.8	4	WIN
Landen Roupp	Pittsburgh Pirates	K	UNDER	6.5	77%	5.1	4	WIN
Casey Mize	Cincinnati Reds	K	OVER (more)	3.5	62%	–	4	WIN
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	St. Louis Cardinals	K	OVER (more)	5.5	61%	–	8	WIN
Bubba Chandler	San Francisco Giants	K	OVER (more)	3.5	60%	–	4	WIN
Griffin Jax	New York Mets	K	OVER (more)	4.5	60%	–	1	LOSS
Bubba Chandler	San Francisco Giants	OUTS	OVER	14.5	64%	15.4	15	WIN
Joey Cantillo	Toronto Blue Jays	OUTS	OVER	13.5	62%	14.5	16	WIN
Tomoyuki Sugano	Baltimore Orioles	OUTS	OVER	14.5	62%	15.2	18	WIN
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	St. Louis Cardinals	ER	UNDER	2.5	67%	2.04	4	LOSS
Casey Mize	Cincinnati Reds	ER	UNDER	2.5	67%	2.04	4	LOSS
Eury Pérez	Kansas City Royals	ER	UNDER	2.5	67%	2.06	6	LOSS

Graded against MLB box scores · fair odds with no house cut · past results do not predict future outcomes
Analysis only · not gambling advice · 21+
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