Today's Card

Sep 6 Prop Picks

Sun · Sep 6, 2026 15-game slate · 30 starters Strikeouts · outs · earned runs · batters

These are our numbers, not a sportsbook's. Every price on this page is a fair price — what the bet is worth with no house cut built in. A real book keeps a margin, so it will pay less than what you see here. Shop your own book's line before betting.

O+U

Tonight's Two

Our two biggest edges over the sportsbook's own price — one over, one under, from whichever market (strikeouts, outs, earned runs or hits) it shows up in. The line and the Mkt Edge are measured against a real book (bovada) wherever one has posted; where none has, we fall back to the nearest half-point line.

Tonight's Two fair odds +164 · 2.64×

Over
            Strikeouts
            Andrew Alvarez
            vs Los Angeles Dodgers
Our Proj4.2 Ks
Line3.5 Ks
Edge+0.7
Win %61%
Fair Odds-159
own 21.8% K rate × Los Angeles Dodgers 20.8% vs LHP → adjusted 20.0%

Under
            Hits
            Tyler Phillips
            vs Chicago Cubs
Our Proj4.06 hits
Line4.5 hits
Edge-0.4
Win %62%
Fair Odds-161
own 21.83% hit rate × Chicago Cubs 21.61% → adjusted 20.88% × 19.5 BF

$100 bet · fair odds

$263.79

if both picks hit

+$163.79 profit

Fair-odds payout, not a sportsbook payout. Each pick is priced at the chance we give it (-159 Alvarez × -161 Phillips → +164 together, decimal 2.64). A real book takes its cut and will pay less than this.

PROPS EDGE · 2026-09-06 · our projection

Strikeouts

All 30 probable starters, most projected strikeouts first. Proj K is how many we expect him to get tonight; the Pick column is the side we'd take against the nearest half-point line, with our win chance beside it.

How we get the number

K% is how often the pitcher strikes a batter out over his own starts. Opp K% is how often that lineup strikes out against this hand. Adj K% blends the two — a strikeout pitcher facing a contact lineup lands between them, not at either extreme. Multiply that by BF/St (batters he faces in a typical start) and you get Proj K. Win chance comes from how far past the line the projection sits, scored against 2,130 completed 2026 starts, so it reflects how often we've actually been right by that margin — not a textbook curve.

we like the OVERwe like the UNDERtoo close to callbright = strong pick, faded = slight edge+6% = our edge over the book's pricetap a row to star it

PitcherSP	Opp	St	K%	Opp K%	Adj K%	BF/St	Proj KK	Pick	Confidence
Gavin Williams	Detroit TigersDET	28	32.4%	22.5%	33.2%	23.5	7.6	UNDER 7.5· 53%	high
Payton Tolle	Baltimore OriolesBAL	23	27.9%	25.0%	30.6%	23.0	7.1	OVER 6.5· 55%	high
Ian Seymour	Texas RangersTEX	12	31.0%	23.4%	32.0%	20.2	6.9	OVER 6.5· 51%	med
Paul Skenes	Los Angeles AngelsLAA	28	26.6%	24.8%	29.9%	22.1	6.6	UNDER 6.5· 52%	high
Kyle Harrison	Cincinnati RedsCIN	22	27.7%	24.4%	29.4%	20.3	6.1	OVER 5.5· 53%	high
Gerrit Cole	San Diego PadresSD	18	25.1%	21.7%	25.5%	23.7	6.1	OVER 5.5· 55%	high
Aaron Nola	Atlanta BravesATL	28	25.5%	22.2%	25.9%	22.8	5.9	OVER 5.5· 54%	high
Gage Jump	Seattle MarinersSEA	18	23.5%	24.0%	25.5%	22.6	5.9	OVER 5.5· 51%	high
Michael King	New York YankeesNYY	28	21.5%	24.3%	24.3%	23.6	5.8	OVER 5.5· 52%	high
Bryan Woo	AthleticsATH	26	24.3%	21.6%	24.4%	23.3	5.6	UNDER 5.5· 52%	high
Tyler Mahle	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	23	23.8%	22.0%	24.0%	22.7	5.5	UNDER 5.5· 54%	high
Walbert Ureña	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	23	23.2%	23.3%	24.7%	22.2	5.4	UNDER 5.5· 56%	high
Justin Wrobleski	Washington NationalsWSH	20	20.8%	23.8%	21.9%	24.9	5.4	UNDER 5.5· 55%	high
Christian Scott	San Francisco GiantsSF	20	25.7%	20.7%	24.7%	20.6	5.3	UNDER 5.5· 57%	high
Peter Lambert	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	24	22.3%	20.2%	20.6%	23.6	4.9	OVER 4.5· 53%	high
MacKenzie Gore	Tampa Bay RaysTB	29	25.0%	19.2%	21.4%	22.9	4.9	OVER 4.5· 53%	high
Kyle Bradish	Boston Red SoxBOS	27	20.7%	21.5%	20.3%	23.4	4.8	OVER 4.5· 50%	high
Eduardo Rodriguez	Houston AstrosHOU	28	19.6%	21.4%	18.6%	24.5	4.6	UNDER 4.5· 52%	high
Kyle Leahy	Colorado RockiesCOL	26	23.2%	21.7%	22.4%	21.0	4.5	UNDER 4.5· 54%	high
Brady Singer	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	27	18.3%	21.7%	18.0%	23.4	4.4	UNDER 4.5· 56%	high
Clay Holmes	Miami MarlinsMIA	14	19.3%	21.3%	19.0%	23.3	4.4	UNDER 4.5· 55%	med
Spencer Arrighetti	Kansas City RoyalsKC	18	21.3%	20.6%	20.1%	22.6	4.3	UNDER 4.5· 57%	high
Andrew Alvarez	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	13	21.8%	20.8%	20.0%	20.8	4.2	OVER 3.5· 61%	med
Bailey Ober	Chicago White SoxCWS	21	17.0%	23.3%	18.2%	22.7	4.1	OVER 3.5· 56%	high
Jackson Jobe ⚠	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	5	19.8%	21.1%	19.1%	20.8	4.0	—	low
Randy Dobnak	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	9	19.4%	19.3%	17.1%	22.9	4.0	OVER 3.5· 56%	low
Tyler Phillips	Chicago CubsCHC	16	20.3%	21.5%	20.2%	19.3	3.9	OVER 3.5· 54%	high
Tanner Gordon	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	8	17.3%	21.7%	16.6%	22.4	3.8	OVER 3.5· 51%	low
Bryan Hudson ⚠	Minnesota TwinsMIN	7	22.2%	22.1%	21.7%	4.1	0.9	—	low
Cesar Perdomo ⚠	New York MetsNYM	0	—%	—%	—%	—	—	—	low

Hits Allowed

Hits we expect each starter to give up. Same idea as strikeouts, flipped — Proj H is the number, the Pick is the side against the nearest half-point line.

How we get the number

Hit% is how often a batter gets a hit off this pitcher over his own starts. Opp Hit% is how often that lineup gets a hit against this hand. Adj Hit% blends the two, then nudges for the ballpark — hit and run environments move together. Multiply by BF/St (batters faced in a typical start) and you get Proj H. Win chance is scored the same way as the other markets, against completed 2026 starts.

we like the OVERwe like the UNDERtoo close to callbright = strong pick, faded = slight edge+6% = our edge over the book's pricetap a row to star it

PitcherSP	Opp	St	Hit%	Opp Hit%	Adj Hit%	BF/St	Proj HH	Pick	Confidence
Brady Singer	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	27	23.0%	22.24%	24.53%	23.4	5.94	OVER 5.5· 54%	med
Tanner Gordon	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	8	22.8%	21.68%	25.53%	22.4	5.79	OVER 5.5· 52%	low
Aaron Nola	Atlanta BravesATL	28	22.7%	22.09%	23.59%	22.8	5.4	UNDER 5.5· 55%	med
Justin Wrobleski	Washington NationalsWSH	20	21.55%	21.97%	21.92%	24.9	5.37	UNDER 5.5· 55%	med
Kyle Bradish	Boston Red SoxBOS	27	22.19%	21.74%	22.7%	23.4	5.36	UNDER 5.5· 55%	med
Eduardo Rodriguez	Houston AstrosHOU	28	21.59%	21.52%	21.51%	24.5	5.29	UNDER 5.5· 57%	med
Randy Dobnak	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	9	21.94%	22.35%	22.61%	22.9	5.25	UNDER 5.5· 57%	low
Tyler Mahle	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	23	22.06%	21.69%	22.51%	22.7	5.15	UNDER 5.5· 59%	med
Kyle Leahy	Colorado RockiesCOL	26	22.47%	22.07%	25.6%	21.0	5.12	UNDER 5.5· 59%	med
MacKenzie Gore	Tampa Bay RaysTB	29	21.4%	21.73%	21.75%	22.9	5.01	UNDER 5.5· 61%	med
Payton Tolle	Baltimore OriolesBAL	23	21.14%	21.51%	21.47%	23.0	4.95	OVER 4.5· 55%	med
Bailey Ober	Chicago White SoxCWS	21	22.04%	21.25%	21.82%	22.7	4.92	OVER 4.5· 55%	med
Gerrit Cole	San Diego PadresSD	18	21.73%	21.23%	20.21%	23.7	4.85	OVER 4.5· 53%	med
Ian Seymour	Texas RangersTEX	12	21.88%	21.86%	22.36%	20.2	4.79	OVER 4.5· 52%	med
Peter Lambert	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	24	20.86%	21.06%	20.25%	23.6	4.76	OVER 4.5· 52%	med
Clay Holmes	Miami MarlinsMIA	14	20.93%	21.99%	20.38%	23.3	4.68	OVER 4.5· 50%	med
Bryan Woo	AthleticsATH	26	21.66%	21.75%	20.42%	23.3	4.67	UNDER 4.5· 50%	med
Gavin Williams	Detroit TigersDET	28	20.86%	21.64%	20.4%	23.5	4.65	UNDER 4.5· 50%	med
Kyle Harrison	Cincinnati RedsCIN	22	21.76%	21.55%	22.58%	20.3	4.65	UNDER 4.5· 50%	med
Gage Jump	Seattle MarinersSEA	18	21.94%	20.94%	20.0%	22.6	4.59	UNDER 4.5· 52%	med
Michael King	New York YankeesNYY	28	20.68%	21.0%	19.02%	23.6	4.56	UNDER 4.5· 52%	med
Paul Skenes	Los Angeles AngelsLAA	28	21.38%	21.36%	20.64%	22.1	4.52	UNDER 4.5· 53%	med
Spencer Arrighetti	Kansas City RoyalsKC	18	20.68%	21.86%	20.85%	22.6	4.47	UNDER 4.5· 54%	med
Andrew Alvarez	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	13	21.19%	21.73%	21.32%	20.8	4.47	UNDER 4.5· 54%	med
Christian Scott	San Francisco GiantsSF	20	21.06%	22.15%	20.66%	20.6	4.43	UNDER 4.5· 55%	med
Jackson Jobe ⚠	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	5	21.81%	21.55%	21.23%	20.8	4.42	—	low
Walbert Ureña	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	23	20.15%	22.16%	20.19%	22.2	4.37	UNDER 4.5· 56%	med
Tyler Phillips	Chicago CubsCHC	16	21.83%	21.61%	20.88%	19.3	4.06	UNDER 4.5· 62%	med
Bryan Hudson ⚠	Minnesota TwinsMIN	7	21.48%	21.5%	21.6%	4.1	0.91	—	low
Cesar Perdomo ⚠	New York MetsNYM	0	—%	—%	—%	—	—	—	low

OUT

Outs Recorded

How deep into the game we expect each starter to go, in outs (3 outs = 1 inning). Blank where his outings are too up-and-down to price.

How we get the number

IP/St is innings per start this year, and Base is that turned into outs with recent form weighted heavier. Matchup is the opponent nudge — how much traffic that lineup puts on and how many pitches it makes him throw. It is deliberately a small adjustment: team on-base splits this season are mostly random, so we lean on the pitcher's own workload rather than invent a matchup edge the data doesn't support.

we like the OVERwe like the UNDERtoo close to callbright = strong pick, faded = slight edge+6% = our edge over the book's pricetap a row to star it

PitcherSP	Opp	St	IP/St	Base	Matchup	Proj OutsOuts	Pick	Confidence
Eduardo Rodriguez	Houston AstrosHOU	28	5.96	18.1	×1.004 -0.6	17.5	OVER 17.5· 52%	high
Michael King	New York YankeesNYY	28	5.79	17.9	×0.995 -0.3	17.4	OVER 17.5· 51%	high
Gerrit Cole	San Diego PadresSD	18	5.78	17.6	×0.999 -0.5	17.0	UNDER 17.5· 55%	high
Bryan Woo	AthleticsATH	26	5.7	17.0	×1.001 -0.1	16.9	UNDER 17.5· 55%	high
Kyle Bradish	Boston Red SoxBOS	27	5.48	16.4	×1.011 +0.1	16.7	OVER 16.5· 54%	high
Clay Holmes	Miami MarlinsMIA	14	5.84	17.5	×1.002 -0.8	16.7	OVER 16.5· 55%	med
Payton Tolle	Baltimore OriolesBAL	23	5.7	17.4	×0.993 -0.7	16.6	OVER 16.5· 54%	high
Tyler Mahle	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	23	5.43	16.9	×1.007 -0.6	16.4	OVER 16.5· 51%	high
Randy Dobnak	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	9	5.33	16.0	×1.016 +0.1	16.4	OVER 16.5· 51%	low
Gavin Williams	Detroit TigersDET	28	5.82	16.5	×1.002 -0.3	16.3	OVER 16.5· 50%	high
Justin Wrobleski	Washington NationalsWSH	20	6.12	17.5	×1.000 -1.4	16.2	UNDER 16.5· 51%	high
MacKenzie Gore	Tampa Bay RaysTB	29	5.33	15.9	×1.016 +0.0	16.1	UNDER 16.5· 52%	high
Aaron Nola	Atlanta BravesATL	28	5.29	16.1	×0.995 -0.0	16.0	UNDER 16.5· 56%	high
Tanner Gordon	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	8	5.04	15.5	×1.008 +0.4	16.0	UNDER 16.5· 54%	low
Paul Skenes	Los Angeles AngelsLAA	28	5.35	15.7	×1.003 -0.1	15.7	OVER 15.5· 54%	high
Peter Lambert	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	24	5.53	15.9	×1.005 -0.3	15.7	OVER 15.5· 55%	high
Brady Singer	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	27	5.25	16.1	×0.970 +0.1	15.6	OVER 15.5· 53%	high
Bailey Ober	Chicago White SoxCWS	21	5.4	16.1	×1.002 -0.8	15.3	UNDER 15.5· 50%	high
Gage Jump	Seattle MarinersSEA	18	5.15	15.5	×1.000 -0.3	15.2	UNDER 15.5· 52%	high
Ian Seymour	Texas RangersTEX	12	4.83	15.4	×0.994 -0.3	15.0	UNDER 15.5· 53%	med
Andrew Alvarez	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	13	4.92	15.1	×1.000 -0.4	14.8	OVER 14.5· 56%	med
Walbert Ureña	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	23	5.29	15.4	×0.981 -0.6	14.6	OVER 14.5· 54%	high
Tyler Phillips	Chicago CubsCHC	16	4.61	14.0	×0.976 +0.5	14.2	UNDER 14.5· 51%	high
Christian Scott	San Francisco GiantsSF	20	4.74	14.5	×1.008 -0.5	14.1	UNDER 14.5· 53%	high
Kyle Leahy	Colorado RockiesCOL	26	4.97	14.4	×1.010 -0.6	13.9	UNDER 14.5· 56%	high
Jackson Jobe ⚠	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	5	4.66	14.0	×0.997 -0.1	13.8	—	low
Kyle Harrison	Cincinnati RedsCIN	22	4.86	14.4	×0.985 -0.5	13.7	OVER 13.5· 54%	high
Spencer Arrighetti	Kansas City RoyalsKC	18	5.11	14.3	×1.009 -1.0	13.4	OVER 13.5· 51%	high
Bryan Hudson ⚠	Minnesota TwinsMIN	7	1.14	3.5	×1.002 +0.3	—	—	low
Cesar Perdomo ⚠	New York MetsNYM	0	—	—	—	—	—	low

Earned Runs

Runs we expect each starter to give up. Priced against a whole-run line (1.5 / 2.5 / 3.5). This is the noisiest of the three markets, so confidence never goes above med.

How we get the number

ER Rate is earned runs per batter faced across his starts, pulled toward the league average when he hasn't thrown much — a small sample shouldn't get treated like a full season. Opp× scales it by how well that lineup scores against this hand, Park× by the ballpark. Multiply through by batters faced and you get Proj ER. We price it as a count that can blow up — one bad inning is most of a bad night — rather than assuming runs trickle in evenly.

we like the OVERwe like the UNDERtoo close to callbright = strong pick, faded = slight edge+6% = our edge over the book's pricetap a row to star it

PitcherSP	Opp	St	ER Rate	Opp×	Park×	Proj ERER	Pick	Confidence
Brady Singer	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	27	10.94%	×1.035	×1.04	2.85	UNDER 2.5· 50%	med
Aaron Nola	Atlanta BravesATL	28	11.26%	×1.007	×1.02	2.65	UNDER 2.5· 54%	med
Tanner Gordon	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	8	10.59%	×0.977	×1.12	2.63	UNDER 2.5· 55%	low
Justin Wrobleski	Washington NationalsWSH	20	9.82%	×1.036	×1.00	2.49	UNDER 2.5· 58%	med
Kyle Bradish	Boston Red SoxBOS	27	10.23%	×0.993	×1.02	2.45	UNDER 2.5· 58%	med
Tyler Mahle	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	23	10.58%	×0.988	×1.02	2.44	UNDER 2.5· 59%	med
MacKenzie Gore	Tampa Bay RaysTB	29	10.57%	×0.986	×1.01	2.42	UNDER 2.5· 59%	med
Bailey Ober	Chicago White SoxCWS	21	10.63%	×0.998	×1.01	2.42	UNDER 2.5· 59%	med
Ian Seymour	Texas RangersTEX	12	10.53%	×1.026	×1.01	2.34	UNDER 2.5· 61%	med
Bryan Woo	AthleticsATH	26	10.72%	×1.007	×0.94	2.32	UNDER 2.5· 61%	med
Gavin Williams	Detroit TigersDET	28	10.27%	×0.998	×0.98	2.29	UNDER 2.5· 62%	med
Gage Jump	Seattle MarinersSEA	18	11.09%	×0.958	×0.94	2.29	UNDER 2.5· 62%	med
Spencer Arrighetti	Kansas City RoyalsKC	18	10.67%	×1.000	×1.00	2.29	UNDER 2.5· 62%	med
Payton Tolle	Baltimore OriolesBAL	23	9.59%	×1.001	×1.02	2.25	UNDER 2.5· 63%	med
Peter Lambert	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	24	9.85%	×0.961	×1.00	2.23	UNDER 2.5· 63%	med
Gerrit Cole	San Diego PadresSD	18	9.67%	×0.985	×0.95	2.17	UNDER 2.5· 64%	med
Randy Dobnak	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	9	9.49%	×0.984	×1.00	2.17	UNDER 2.5· 64%	low
Kyle Leahy	Colorado RockiesCOL	26	9.33%	×1.032	×1.12	2.16	UNDER 2.5· 65%	med
Paul Skenes	Los Angeles AngelsLAA	28	10.34%	×0.963	×0.98	2.13	UNDER 2.5· 65%	med
Eduardo Rodriguez	Houston AstrosHOU	28	8.63%	×0.996	×1.00	2.12	UNDER 2.5· 66%	med
Kyle Harrison	Cincinnati RedsCIN	22	9.75%	×1.014	×1.04	2.11	UNDER 2.5· 66%	med
Michael King	New York YankeesNYY	28	9.33%	×0.991	×0.95	2.11	UNDER 2.5· 66%	med
Andrew Alvarez	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	13	9.76%	×1.016	×1.00	2.08	UNDER 2.5· 66%	med
Christian Scott	San Francisco GiantsSF	20	9.95%	×1.008	×0.96	2.06	UNDER 2.5· 67%	med
Jackson Jobe ⚠	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	5	10.25%	×0.974	×0.98	2.04	—	low
Walbert Ureña	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	23	9.11%	×1.038	×0.98	2.01	UNDER 2.5· 68%	med
Tyler Phillips	Chicago CubsCHC	16	10.34%	×1.038	×0.96	2.00	OVER 1.5· 53%	med
Clay Holmes	Miami MarlinsMIA	14	8.82%	×1.017	×0.96	1.98	OVER 1.5· 53%	med
Bryan Hudson ⚠	Minnesota TwinsMIN	7	10.09%	×0.995	×1.01	0.43	—	low
Cesar Perdomo ⚠	New York MetsNYM	0	—	—	—	—	—	low

BAT

Batter Props

206 batters across 12 posted lineups, best chances first. 1+ Hit and 1+ RBI are the odds he gets at least one tonight. Lineups post 3–4 hours before first pitch, so late games may still be missing.

How we get the number

Hit% is how often this batter gets a hit against pitchers of this hand. Adj folds in how many hits tonight's starter actually gives up. PA is how many times he should come to the plate, from his spot in the order — and we split those trips between the starter and the bullpen using how deep we expect the starter to go, because the reliever he faces in the 8th is a different problem than the starter he faces in the 1st. RBI is priced to allow for bunching: a three-run homer is one plate appearance, not three.

we like the OVERwe like the UNDERtoo close to callbright = strong pick, faded = slight edge+6% = our edge over the book's pricetap a row to star it

Batter	Team	#	Opp SP	vs	Hit%	Adj	PA	1+ HitHit	1+ RBIRBI
Alec Burleson	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	3	Tanner Gordon	RHP	24.7%	25.2%	4.45	72%	40%
Drake Baldwin	Atlanta BravesATL	1	Aaron Nola	RHP	23.7%	24.1%	4.65	72%	39%
Michael Harris II	Atlanta BravesATL	4	Aaron Nola	RHP	25.0%	25.4%	4.35	72%	38%
Jake McCarthy	Colorado RockiesCOL	1	Kyle Leahy	RHP	23.7%	23.8%	4.65	72%	37%
Luis Arraez	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	4	Tyler Mahle	RHP	25.2%	24.9%	4.35	71%	31%
Troy Johnston	Colorado RockiesCOL	2	Kyle Leahy	RHP	24.0%	24.1%	4.55	71%	33%
Elly De La Cruz	Cincinnati RedsCIN	2	Kyle Harrison	LHP	24.1%	23.5%	4.55	71%	39%
Nathan Lukes	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	2	Randy Dobnak	RHP	24.0%	23.6%	4.55	71%	34%
Jackson Chourio	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	3	Brady Singer	RHP	23.6%	24.2%	4.45	70%	36%
Steven Kwan	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	1	Jackson Jobe	RHP	23.3%	22.8%	4.65	70%	26%
Fernando Tatis Jr.	San Diego PadresSD	1	Gerrit Cole	RHP	23.4%	22.8%	4.65	70%	35%
Jordan Walker	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	4	Tanner Gordon	RHP	24.1%	24.6%	4.35	70%	41%
Bryan Torres	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	1	Tanner Gordon	RHP	22.7%	23.1%	4.65	70%	36%
Nick Gonzales	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	4	Walbert Ureña	RHP	25.4%	23.0%	4.35	70%	34%
Sal Frelick	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	1	Brady Singer	RHP	22.3%	23.0%	4.65	70%	35%
Rafael Devers	San Francisco GiantsSF	2	Christian Scott	RHP	23.9%	22.5%	4.55	70%	42%
Brett Bateman	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	1	Randy Dobnak	RHP	23.0%	22.6%	4.65	70%	31%
Ezequiel Duran	Texas RangersTEX	1	Ian Seymour	LHP	23.0%	22.5%	4.65	70%	38%
TJ Rumfield	Colorado RockiesCOL	4	Kyle Leahy	RHP	23.9%	24.1%	4.35	70%	33%
Yandy Díaz	Tampa Bay RaysTB	1	MacKenzie Gore	LHP	23.2%	22.2%	4.65	70%	38%
Wade Meckler	Los Angeles AngelsLAA	3	Paul Skenes	RHP	24.0%	23.0%	4.45	70%	33%
Brandon Nimmo	Texas RangersTEX	4	Ian Seymour	LHP	24.1%	23.7%	4.35	69%	36%
Mickey Gasper	Boston Red SoxBOS	2	Kyle Bradish	RHP	23.0%	22.9%	4.55	69%	36%
Dane Myers	Cincinnati RedsCIN	1	Kyle Harrison	LHP	22.8%	22.2%	4.65	69%	34%

Extra Plays

The best outs and earned-run numbers on the board, same engine as the strikeout model. These sit outside the two-pick card above — they are newer markets for us, and we keep the opponent adjustment small on purpose, because this season's team splits are still mostly random.

Michael King OVER 16.5 outs

vs New York Yankees · 17.9 base × 0.995 matchup → 17.4

65%fair odds -184

Tyler Mahle OVER 15.5 outs

vs Philadelphia Phillies · 16.9 base × 1.007 matchup → 16.4

64%fair odds -179

Randy Dobnak OVER 15.5 outs

vs Toronto Blue Jays · 16.0 base × 1.016 matchup → 16.4

63%fair odds -173

Walbert Ureña UNDER 2.5 ER

vs Pittsburgh Pirates · we project 2.01 earned runs

68%fair odds -212

Christian Scott UNDER 2.5 ER

vs San Francisco Giants · we project 2.06 earned runs

67%fair odds -201

Andrew Alvarez UNDER 2.5 ER

vs Los Angeles Dodgers · we project 2.08 earned runs

66%fair odds -197

W-L

Track Record

Every pick we post gets graded the next day against the box score — wins, losses and all — see every one →

All picks 45-39 (54%) · parlay 1-6 · -5.13 units at $100 a card

9/8 7-59/7 7-59/6 9-39/5 3-99/4 5-79/3 6-69/2 8-4

Newest first. Past results do not predict future outcomes.

Every past card (8)

Our own projections · odds shown are fair value with no house cut — not sportsbook prices
Analysis only · not gambling advice · 21+
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