Tonight's Card

Sep 6 Prop Picks

Sun · Sep 6, 2026 15-game slate · 30 starters Strikeouts · outs · earned runs · batters

Live record · since Sep 2 · 16 slates

130-81Picks graded

62%Hit rate

-9.1uUnits · $100/card

3-13Parlay record

Fair prices, not sportsbook prices. No house cut is built in, so your book will pay a little less — shop your own line before betting.

O+U

Tonight's Two

Our two biggest edges over the sportsbook's own price — one over, one under, from whichever market (strikeouts, outs, earned runs or hits) it shows up in. The line and the Mkt Edge are measured against a real book (bovada) wherever one has posted; where none has, we fall back to the nearest half-point line.

Tonight's Two fair odds +164 · 2.64×

Over Strikeouts Andrew Alvarez vs Los Angeles Dodgers

Our Proj4.2 Ks

Line3.5 Ks

Edge+0.7

Win %61%

Fair Odds-159

Under Hits Tyler Phillips vs Chicago Cubs

Our Proj4.06 hits

Line4.5 hits

Edge-0.4

Win %62%

Fair Odds-161

$100 bet · fair odds

$263.79

if both picks hit

+$163.79 profit

Fair-odds payout, not a sportsbook payout. Each pick is priced at the chance we give it (-159 Alvarez × -161 Phillips → +164 together, decimal 2.64). A real book takes its cut and will pay less than this.

PROPS EDGE · 2026-09-06 · our projection

On the Record

These 14 calls are the record. Everything else on this page is projection and context — useful for finding your own angle, but not scored. Tomorrow morning each row below is graded against the box score and the running track record moves by exactly these results, win or lose. Nothing is added afterwards and nothing quietly drops out.

Player	Source	Market	Pick	Line	Win %
Andrew Alvarez	Tonight's Two	K	Over	3.5	61%
Tyler Phillips	Tonight's Two	HITS	Under	4.5	62%
MacKenzie Gore	Extra play	HITS	Under	5.5	61%
Kyle Leahy	Extra play	OUTS	Under	14.5	56%
Walbert Ureña	Extra play	ER	Under	2.5	68%
Tyler Mahle	Extra play	HITS	Under	5.5	59%
Michael King	Outs lean	OUTS	Over	16.5	65%
Tyler Mahle	Outs lean	OUTS	Over	15.5	64%
Randy Dobnak	Outs lean	OUTS	Over	15.5	63%
Christian Scott	ER lean	ER	Under	2.5	67%
Andrew Alvarez	ER lean	ER	Under	2.5	66%
Alec Burleson	Batter	HIT	1+ Hit		72%
Drake Baldwin	Batter	HIT	1+ Hit		72%
Michael Harris II	Batter	HIT	1+ Hit		72%

OVERUNDERtoo closehighest-confidence pick+6% edge over the booktap a row to star it

Strikeouts

All 30 probable starters, most projected strikeouts first — Proj K is tonight's number, Pick is the side against the nearest half-point line.

PitcherSP	Opp	St	K%	Opp K%	Proj KK	Pick	Confidence
Gavin Williams	Detroit TigersDET	28	32.4%	22.5%	7.6	UNDER 7.5· 53%	high
Payton Tolle	Baltimore OriolesBAL	23	27.9%	25.0%	7.1	OVER 6.5· 55%	high
Ian Seymour	Texas RangersTEX	12	31.0%	23.4%	6.9	OVER 6.5· 51%	med
Paul Skenes	Los Angeles AngelsLAA	28	26.6%	24.8%	6.6	UNDER 6.5· 52%	high
Kyle Harrison	Cincinnati RedsCIN	22	27.7%	24.4%	6.1	OVER 5.5· 53%	high
Gerrit Cole	San Diego PadresSD	18	25.1%	21.7%	6.1	OVER 5.5· 55%	high
Aaron Nola	Atlanta BravesATL	28	25.5%	22.2%	5.9	OVER 5.5· 54%	high
Gage Jump	Seattle MarinersSEA	18	23.5%	24.0%	5.9	OVER 5.5· 51%	high
Michael King	New York YankeesNYY	28	21.5%	24.3%	5.8	OVER 5.5· 52%	high
Bryan Woo	AthleticsATH	26	24.3%	21.6%	5.6	UNDER 5.5· 52%	high
Tyler Mahle	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	23	23.8%	22.0%	5.5	UNDER 5.5· 54%	high
Walbert Ureña	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	23	23.2%	23.3%	5.4	UNDER 5.5· 56%	high
Justin Wrobleski	Washington NationalsWSH	20	20.8%	23.8%	5.4	UNDER 5.5· 55%	high
Christian Scott	San Francisco GiantsSF	20	25.7%	20.7%	5.3	UNDER 5.5· 57%	high
Peter Lambert	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	24	22.3%	20.2%	4.9	OVER 4.5· 53%	high
MacKenzie Gore	Tampa Bay RaysTB	29	25.0%	19.2%	4.9	OVER 4.5· 53%	high
Kyle Bradish	Boston Red SoxBOS	27	20.7%	21.5%	4.8	OVER 4.5· 50%	high
Eduardo Rodriguez	Houston AstrosHOU	28	19.6%	21.4%	4.6	UNDER 4.5· 52%	high
Kyle Leahy	Colorado RockiesCOL	26	23.2%	21.7%	4.5	UNDER 4.5· 54%	high
Brady Singer	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	27	18.3%	21.7%	4.4	UNDER 4.5· 56%	high
Clay Holmes	Miami MarlinsMIA	14	19.3%	21.3%	4.4	UNDER 4.5· 55%	med
Spencer Arrighetti	Kansas City RoyalsKC	18	21.3%	20.6%	4.3	UNDER 4.5· 57%	high
Andrew Alvarez	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	13	21.8%	20.8%	4.2	OVER 3.5· 61%	med
Bailey Ober	Chicago White SoxCWS	21	17.0%	23.3%	4.1	OVER 3.5· 56%	high
Jackson Jobe ⚠	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	5	19.8%	21.1%	4.0	—	low
Randy Dobnak	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	9	19.4%	19.3%	4.0	OVER 3.5· 56%	low
Tyler Phillips	Chicago CubsCHC	16	20.3%	21.5%	3.9	OVER 3.5· 54%	high
Tanner Gordon	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	8	17.3%	21.7%	3.8	OVER 3.5· 51%	low
Bryan Hudson ⚠	Minnesota TwinsMIN	7	22.2%	22.1%	0.9	—	low
Cesar Perdomo ⚠	New York MetsNYM	0	—%	—%	—	—	low

Hits Allowed

Hits we expect each starter to give up — Proj H is the number, the Pick is the side against the nearest half-point line.

PitcherSP	Opp	St	Hit%	Opp Hit%	Proj HH	Pick	Confidence
Brady Singer	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	27	23.0%	22.24%	5.94	OVER 5.5· 54%	med
Tanner Gordon	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	8	22.8%	21.68%	5.79	OVER 5.5· 52%	low
Aaron Nola	Atlanta BravesATL	28	22.7%	22.09%	5.4	UNDER 5.5· 55%	med
Justin Wrobleski	Washington NationalsWSH	20	21.55%	21.97%	5.37	UNDER 5.5· 55%	med
Kyle Bradish	Boston Red SoxBOS	27	22.19%	21.74%	5.36	UNDER 5.5· 55%	med
Eduardo Rodriguez	Houston AstrosHOU	28	21.59%	21.52%	5.29	UNDER 5.5· 57%	med
Randy Dobnak	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	9	21.94%	22.35%	5.25	UNDER 5.5· 57%	low
Tyler Mahle	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	23	22.06%	21.69%	5.15	UNDER 5.5· 59%	med
Kyle Leahy	Colorado RockiesCOL	26	22.47%	22.07%	5.12	UNDER 5.5· 59%	med
MacKenzie Gore	Tampa Bay RaysTB	29	21.4%	21.73%	5.01	UNDER 5.5· 61%	med
Payton Tolle	Baltimore OriolesBAL	23	21.14%	21.51%	4.95	OVER 4.5· 55%	med
Bailey Ober	Chicago White SoxCWS	21	22.04%	21.25%	4.92	OVER 4.5· 55%	med
Gerrit Cole	San Diego PadresSD	18	21.73%	21.23%	4.85	OVER 4.5· 53%	med
Ian Seymour	Texas RangersTEX	12	21.88%	21.86%	4.79	OVER 4.5· 52%	med
Peter Lambert	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	24	20.86%	21.06%	4.76	OVER 4.5· 52%	med
Clay Holmes	Miami MarlinsMIA	14	20.93%	21.99%	4.68	OVER 4.5· 50%	med
Bryan Woo	AthleticsATH	26	21.66%	21.75%	4.67	UNDER 4.5· 50%	med
Gavin Williams	Detroit TigersDET	28	20.86%	21.64%	4.65	UNDER 4.5· 50%	med
Kyle Harrison	Cincinnati RedsCIN	22	21.76%	21.55%	4.65	UNDER 4.5· 50%	med
Gage Jump	Seattle MarinersSEA	18	21.94%	20.94%	4.59	UNDER 4.5· 52%	med
Michael King	New York YankeesNYY	28	20.68%	21.0%	4.56	UNDER 4.5· 52%	med
Paul Skenes	Los Angeles AngelsLAA	28	21.38%	21.36%	4.52	UNDER 4.5· 53%	med
Spencer Arrighetti	Kansas City RoyalsKC	18	20.68%	21.86%	4.47	UNDER 4.5· 54%	med
Andrew Alvarez	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	13	21.19%	21.73%	4.47	UNDER 4.5· 54%	med
Christian Scott	San Francisco GiantsSF	20	21.06%	22.15%	4.43	UNDER 4.5· 55%	med
Jackson Jobe ⚠	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	5	21.81%	21.55%	4.42	—	low
Walbert Ureña	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	23	20.15%	22.16%	4.37	UNDER 4.5· 56%	med
Tyler Phillips	Chicago CubsCHC	16	21.83%	21.61%	4.06	UNDER 4.5· 62%	med
Bryan Hudson ⚠	Minnesota TwinsMIN	7	21.48%	21.5%	0.91	—	low
Cesar Perdomo ⚠	New York MetsNYM	0	—%	—%	—	—	low

OUT

Outs Recorded

How deep into the game we expect each starter to go, in outs (3 outs = 1 inning). Blank where his outings are too up-and-down to price.

PitcherSP	Opp	St	IP/St	Proj OutsOuts	Pick	Confidence
Eduardo Rodriguez	Houston AstrosHOU	28	5.96	17.5	OVER 17.5· 52%	high
Michael King	New York YankeesNYY	28	5.79	17.4	OVER 17.5· 51%	high
Gerrit Cole	San Diego PadresSD	18	5.78	17.0	UNDER 17.5· 55%	high
Bryan Woo	AthleticsATH	26	5.7	16.9	UNDER 17.5· 55%	high
Kyle Bradish	Boston Red SoxBOS	27	5.48	16.7	OVER 16.5· 54%	high
Clay Holmes	Miami MarlinsMIA	14	5.84	16.7	OVER 16.5· 55%	med
Payton Tolle	Baltimore OriolesBAL	23	5.7	16.6	OVER 16.5· 54%	high
Tyler Mahle	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	23	5.43	16.4	OVER 16.5· 51%	high
Randy Dobnak	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	9	5.33	16.4	OVER 16.5· 51%	low
Gavin Williams	Detroit TigersDET	28	5.82	16.3	OVER 16.5· 50%	high
Justin Wrobleski	Washington NationalsWSH	20	6.12	16.2	UNDER 16.5· 51%	high
MacKenzie Gore	Tampa Bay RaysTB	29	5.33	16.1	UNDER 16.5· 52%	high
Aaron Nola	Atlanta BravesATL	28	5.29	16.0	UNDER 16.5· 56%	high
Tanner Gordon	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	8	5.04	16.0	UNDER 16.5· 54%	low
Paul Skenes	Los Angeles AngelsLAA	28	5.35	15.7	OVER 15.5· 54%	high
Peter Lambert	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	24	5.53	15.7	OVER 15.5· 55%	high
Brady Singer	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	27	5.25	15.6	OVER 15.5· 53%	high
Bailey Ober	Chicago White SoxCWS	21	5.4	15.3	UNDER 15.5· 50%	high
Gage Jump	Seattle MarinersSEA	18	5.15	15.2	UNDER 15.5· 52%	high
Ian Seymour	Texas RangersTEX	12	4.83	15.0	UNDER 15.5· 53%	med
Andrew Alvarez	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	13	4.92	14.8	OVER 14.5· 56%	med
Walbert Ureña	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	23	5.29	14.6	OVER 14.5· 54%	high
Tyler Phillips	Chicago CubsCHC	16	4.61	14.2	UNDER 14.5· 51%	high
Christian Scott	San Francisco GiantsSF	20	4.74	14.1	UNDER 14.5· 53%	high
Kyle Leahy	Colorado RockiesCOL	26	4.97	13.9	UNDER 14.5· 56%	high
Jackson Jobe ⚠	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	5	4.66	13.8	—	low
Kyle Harrison	Cincinnati RedsCIN	22	4.86	13.7	OVER 13.5· 54%	high
Spencer Arrighetti	Kansas City RoyalsKC	18	5.11	13.4	OVER 13.5· 51%	high
Bryan Hudson ⚠	Minnesota TwinsMIN	7	1.14	—	—	low
Cesar Perdomo ⚠	New York MetsNYM	0	—	—	—	low

Earned Runs

Runs we expect each starter to give up. Priced against a whole-run line (1.5 / 2.5 / 3.5). This is the noisiest of the three markets, so confidence never goes above med.

PitcherSP	Opp	St	Proj ERER	Pick	Confidence
Brady Singer	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	27	2.85	UNDER 2.5· 50%	med
Aaron Nola	Atlanta BravesATL	28	2.65	UNDER 2.5· 54%	med
Tanner Gordon	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	8	2.63	UNDER 2.5· 55%	low
Justin Wrobleski	Washington NationalsWSH	20	2.49	UNDER 2.5· 58%	med
Kyle Bradish	Boston Red SoxBOS	27	2.45	UNDER 2.5· 58%	med
Tyler Mahle	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	23	2.44	UNDER 2.5· 59%	med
MacKenzie Gore	Tampa Bay RaysTB	29	2.42	UNDER 2.5· 59%	med
Bailey Ober	Chicago White SoxCWS	21	2.42	UNDER 2.5· 59%	med
Ian Seymour	Texas RangersTEX	12	2.34	UNDER 2.5· 61%	med
Bryan Woo	AthleticsATH	26	2.32	UNDER 2.5· 61%	med
Gavin Williams	Detroit TigersDET	28	2.29	UNDER 2.5· 62%	med
Gage Jump	Seattle MarinersSEA	18	2.29	UNDER 2.5· 62%	med
Spencer Arrighetti	Kansas City RoyalsKC	18	2.29	UNDER 2.5· 62%	med
Payton Tolle	Baltimore OriolesBAL	23	2.25	UNDER 2.5· 63%	med
Peter Lambert	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	24	2.23	UNDER 2.5· 63%	med
Gerrit Cole	San Diego PadresSD	18	2.17	UNDER 2.5· 64%	med
Randy Dobnak	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	9	2.17	UNDER 2.5· 64%	low
Kyle Leahy	Colorado RockiesCOL	26	2.16	UNDER 2.5· 65%	med
Paul Skenes	Los Angeles AngelsLAA	28	2.13	UNDER 2.5· 65%	med
Eduardo Rodriguez	Houston AstrosHOU	28	2.12	UNDER 2.5· 66%	med
Kyle Harrison	Cincinnati RedsCIN	22	2.11	UNDER 2.5· 66%	med
Michael King	New York YankeesNYY	28	2.11	UNDER 2.5· 66%	med
Andrew Alvarez	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	13	2.08	UNDER 2.5· 66%	med
Christian Scott	San Francisco GiantsSF	20	2.06	UNDER 2.5· 67%	med
Jackson Jobe ⚠	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	5	2.04	—	low
Walbert Ureña	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	23	2.01	UNDER 2.5· 68%	med
Tyler Phillips	Chicago CubsCHC	16	2.00	OVER 1.5· 53%	med
Clay Holmes	Miami MarlinsMIA	14	1.98	OVER 1.5· 53%	med
Bryan Hudson ⚠	Minnesota TwinsMIN	7	0.43	—	low
Cesar Perdomo ⚠	New York MetsNYM	0	—	—	low

BAT

Batter Props

206 batters across 12 posted lineups, best chances first. 1+ Hit and 1+ RBI are the odds he gets at least one tonight. The three marked PICK are our strongest 1+ Hit calls and are graded into the track record. Lineups post 3–4 hours before first pitch, so late games may still be missing.

Batter	Team	#	Opp SP	vs	Hit%	1+ HitHit	1+ RBIRBI
PICK Alec Burleson	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	3	Tanner Gordon	RHP	24.7%	72%	40%
PICK Drake Baldwin	Atlanta BravesATL	1	Aaron Nola	RHP	23.7%	72%	39%
PICK Michael Harris II	Atlanta BravesATL	4	Aaron Nola	RHP	25.0%	72%	38%
Jake McCarthy	Colorado RockiesCOL	1	Kyle Leahy	RHP	23.7%	72%	37%
Luis Arraez	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	4	Tyler Mahle	RHP	25.2%	71%	31%
Troy Johnston	Colorado RockiesCOL	2	Kyle Leahy	RHP	24.0%	71%	33%
Elly De La Cruz	Cincinnati RedsCIN	2	Kyle Harrison	LHP	24.1%	71%	39%
Nathan Lukes	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	2	Randy Dobnak	RHP	24.0%	71%	34%
Jackson Chourio	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	3	Brady Singer	RHP	23.6%	70%	36%
Steven Kwan	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	1	Jackson Jobe	RHP	23.3%	70%	26%
Fernando Tatis Jr.	San Diego PadresSD	1	Gerrit Cole	RHP	23.4%	70%	35%
Jordan Walker	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	4	Tanner Gordon	RHP	24.1%	70%	41%
Bryan Torres	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	1	Tanner Gordon	RHP	22.7%	70%	36%
Nick Gonzales	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	4	Walbert Ureña	RHP	25.4%	70%	34%
Sal Frelick	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	1	Brady Singer	RHP	22.3%	70%	35%
Rafael Devers	San Francisco GiantsSF	2	Christian Scott	RHP	23.9%	70%	42%
Brett Bateman	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	1	Randy Dobnak	RHP	23.0%	70%	31%
Ezequiel Duran	Texas RangersTEX	1	Ian Seymour	LHP	23.0%	70%	38%
TJ Rumfield	Colorado RockiesCOL	4	Kyle Leahy	RHP	23.9%	70%	33%
Yandy Díaz	Tampa Bay RaysTB	1	MacKenzie Gore	LHP	23.2%	70%	38%
Wade Meckler	Los Angeles AngelsLAA	3	Paul Skenes	RHP	24.0%	70%	33%
Brandon Nimmo	Texas RangersTEX	4	Ian Seymour	LHP	24.1%	69%	36%
Mickey Gasper	Boston Red SoxBOS	2	Kyle Bradish	RHP	23.0%	69%	36%
Dane Myers	Cincinnati RedsCIN	1	Kyle Harrison	LHP	22.8%	69%	34%

Extra Plays

The best outs and earned-run numbers on the board, same engine as the strikeout model. These sit outside the two-pick card above — they are newer markets for us, and we keep the opponent adjustment small on purpose, because this season's team splits are still mostly random.

Michael King OVER 16.5 outs

vs New York Yankees · 17.9 base × 0.995 matchup → 17.4

65%fair odds -184

Tyler Mahle OVER 15.5 outs

vs Philadelphia Phillies · 16.9 base × 1.007 matchup → 16.4

64%fair odds -179

Randy Dobnak OVER 15.5 outs

vs Toronto Blue Jays · 16.0 base × 1.016 matchup → 16.4

63%fair odds -173

Walbert Ureña UNDER 2.5 ER

vs Pittsburgh Pirates · we project 2.01 earned runs

68%fair odds -212

Christian Scott UNDER 2.5 ER

vs San Francisco Giants · we project 2.06 earned runs

67%fair odds -201

Andrew Alvarez UNDER 2.5 ER

vs Los Angeles Dodgers · we project 2.08 earned runs

66%fair odds -197

W-L

Track Record

Every pick we post gets graded the next day against the box score — wins, losses and all — see every one →

All picks 130-81 (62%) · parlay 3-13 · -9.07 units at $100 a card

9/17 8-69/16 7-89/15 9-59/14 11-39/13 9-59/12 8-59/11 11-39/10 8-5

Newest first. Past results do not predict future outcomes.

Every past card (16)

Our own projections · odds shown are fair value with no house cut — not sportsbook prices
Analysis only · not gambling advice · 21+
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