Tonight's Card

Sep 9 Prop Picks

Wed · Sep 9, 2026 15-game slate · 30 starters Strikeouts · outs · earned runs · batters

Live record · since Sep 2 · 16 slates

130-81Picks graded

62%Hit rate

-9.1uUnits · $100/card

3-13Parlay record

Fair prices, not sportsbook prices. No house cut is built in, so your book will pay a little less — shop your own line before betting.

O+U

Tonight's Two

Our two biggest edges over the sportsbook's own price — one over, one under, from whichever market (strikeouts, outs, earned runs or hits) it shows up in. The line and the Mkt Edge are measured against a real book (pinnacle+bovada) wherever one has posted; where none has, we fall back to the nearest half-point line.

Tonight's Two fair odds +152 · 2.52×

Under Outs Kevin Gausman vs Milwaukee Brewers

Our Proj15.9 outs

PINNACLE17.5 outs

Mkt Edge+7%

Win %60%

Fair Odds-150

Under Hits Hunter Brown vs Philadelphia Phillies

Our Proj4.74 hits

PINNACLE5.5 hits

Mkt Edge+5%

Win %66%

Fair Odds-194

$100 bet · fair odds

$252.29

if both picks hit

+$152.29 profit

Fair-odds payout, not a sportsbook payout. Each pick is priced at the chance we give it (-150 Gausman × -194 Brown → +152 together, decimal 2.52). A real book takes its cut and will pay less than this.

PROPS EDGE · 2026-09-09 · our projection

On the Record

These 14 calls are the record. Everything else on this page is projection and context — useful for finding your own angle, but not scored. Tomorrow morning each row below is graded against the box score and the running track record moves by exactly these results, win or lose. Nothing is added afterwards and nothing quietly drops out.

Player	Source	Market	Pick	Line	Win %
Kevin Gausman	Tonight's Two	OUTS	Under	17.5	60%
Hunter Brown	Tonight's Two	HITS	Under	5.5	66%
Walker Buehler	Extra play	K	Over	3.5	65%
Logan Henderson	Extra play	K	Under	6.5	65%
Ryan Johnson	Extra play	HITS	Under	5.5	63%
Cristopher Sánchez	Extra play	ER	Under	2.5	66%
Jake Bennett	Outs lean	OUTS	Over	16.5	63%
Foster Griffin	Outs lean	OUTS	Over	15.5	63%
Janson Junk	Outs lean	OUTS	Over	14.5	62%
Logan Henderson	ER lean	ER	Under	2.5	68%
Janson Junk	ER lean	ER	Under	2.5	66%
Kevin McGonigle	Batter	HIT	1+ Hit		70%
Hao-Yu Lee	Batter	HIT	1+ Hit		69%
Colt Keith	Batter	HIT	1+ Hit		68%

OVERUNDERtoo closehighest-confidence pick+6% edge over the booktap a row to star it

Strikeouts

All 30 probable starters, most projected strikeouts first — Proj K is tonight's number, Pick is the side against the nearest half-point line.

PitcherSP	Opp	St	K%	Opp K%	Proj KK	Pick	Confidence
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Cincinnati RedsCIN	25	26.3%	25.0%	7.5	OVER 7.5· 50% +1%	high
Cristopher Sánchez	Houston AstrosHOU	29	26.7%	21.5%	6.5	OVER 6.5· 50%	high
Kevin Gausman	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	29	24.9%	21.8%	5.8	OVER 5.5· 55% +7%	high
Logan Henderson	Chicago CubsCHC	15	27.5%	21.5%	5.8	UNDER 6.5· 65% +4%	high
Hunter Brown	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	16	24.7%	22.0%	5.7	OVER 4.5· 63% +7%	high
Foster Griffin	Baltimore OriolesBAL	28	21.0%	25.4%	5.5	OVER 5.5· 50% +2%	high
Jake Bennett	Los Angeles AngelsLAA	17	22.2%	24.4%	5.4	UNDER 5.5· 52% -2%	high
Zebby Matthews	Detroit TigersDET	20	20.2%	22.7%	5.2	UNDER 5.5· 56%	high
Will Warren	Colorado RockiesCOL	26	22.3%	22.0%	5.0	UNDER 5.5· 58% +0%	high
Griffin Jax	Atlanta BravesATL	19	25.4%	22.1%	5.0	OVER 4.5· 55% +7%	high
Shane Baz	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	28	21.1%	21.0%	4.9	OVER 4.5· 51% +7%	high
Jackson Kent ⚠	San Diego PadresSD	5	20.3%	22.4%	4.6	—	low
Blade Tidwell ⚠	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	6	21.1%	21.6%	4.5	—	low
Kade Anderson ⚠	Texas RangersTEX	3	20.3%	23.4%	4.5	—	low
Davis Martin	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	25	19.9%	23.2%	4.4	UNDER 4.5· 52% +1%	high
Robert Stock ⚠	Miami MarlinsMIA	6	20.6%	21.4%	4.3	—	low
Walker Buehler	Washington NationalsWSH	28	20.7%	21.0%	4.2	OVER 3.5· 65% +3%	high
Tomoyuki Sugano	New York YankeesNYY	25	15.4%	24.3%	3.9	OVER 3.5· 59% +7%	high
Reynaldo López	Tampa Bay RaysTB	11	22.6%	19.2%	3.9	OVER 3.5· 57%	med
Cody Bradford ⚠	Seattle MarinersSEA	6	15.4%	24.2%	3.8	—	low
Ryan Johnson	Boston Red SoxBOS	15	18.7%	21.5%	3.8	OVER 3.5· 54% +7%	high
Rhett Lowder	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	22	17.6%	20.9%	3.8	OVER 3.5· 56% +6%	high
Andre Pallante	San Francisco GiantsSF	25	16.7%	20.7%	3.7	OVER 3.5· 54%	high
Janson Junk	New York MetsNYM	21	16.5%	22.1%	3.5	OVER 3.5· 50% +2%	high
Keider Montero	Minnesota TwinsMIN	23	15.9%	20.7%	3.4	UNDER 3.5· 52%	high
Zac Gallen	Kansas City RoyalsKC	19	14.7%	20.5%	3.3	OVER 2.5· 50% +7%	high
Lake Bachar ⚠	Chicago White SoxCWS	8	24.5%	23.4%	2.4	—	low
Daniel Lynch IV ⚠	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	6	16.7%	19.2%	2.2	—	low
Brady Basso ⚠	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	4	21.1%	20.6%	1.8	—	low
Braydon Fisher ⚠	AthleticsATH	8	22.5%	21.6%	1.0	—	low

Hits Allowed

Hits we expect each starter to give up — Proj H is the number, the Pick is the side against the nearest half-point line.

PitcherSP	Opp	St	Hit%	Opp Hit%	Proj HH	Pick	Confidence
Zac Gallen	Kansas City RoyalsKC	19	24.75%	21.82%	5.95	OVER 5.5· 54%	med
Cristopher Sánchez	Houston AstrosHOU	29	22.66%	21.47%	5.91	OVER 5.5· 54%	med
Shane Baz	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	28	22.6%	21.59%	5.59	UNDER 5.5· 52% -5%	med
Kevin Gausman	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	29	22.75%	22.19%	5.48	OVER 4.5· 63% +6%	med
Rhett Lowder	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	22	23.29%	22.13%	5.45	UNDER 5.5· 54% +4%	med
Tomoyuki Sugano	New York YankeesNYY	25	24.23%	20.96%	5.39	UNDER 5.5· 53% +7%	med
Will Warren	Colorado RockiesCOL	26	23.05%	22.07%	5.32	UNDER 5.5· 56% -2%	med
Zebby Matthews	Detroit TigersDET	20	22.49%	21.56%	5.29	UNDER 5.5· 57%	med
Jake Bennett	Los Angeles AngelsLAA	17	21.43%	21.47%	5.14	UNDER 5.5· 59% +2%	med
Foster Griffin	Baltimore OriolesBAL	28	21.6%	21.48%	5.08	UNDER 5.5· 59% +7%	med
Davis Martin	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	25	22.91%	22.19%	4.95	OVER 4.5· 55% +1%	med
Andre Pallante	San Francisco GiantsSF	25	22.01%	22.12%	4.91	OVER 4.5· 54%	med
Cody Bradford ⚠	Seattle MarinersSEA	6	23.74%	21.08%	4.9	—	low
Hunter Brown	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	16	20.14%	21.66%	4.74	UNDER 5.5· 66% +5%	med
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Cincinnati RedsCIN	25	19.08%	20.88%	4.64	UNDER 4.5· 51% -0%	med
Keider Montero	Minnesota TwinsMIN	23	20.98%	21.88%	4.63	UNDER 4.5· 51%	med
Robert Stock ⚠	Miami MarlinsMIA	6	22.56%	21.99%	4.62	—	low
Ryan Johnson	Boston Red SoxBOS	15	21.01%	21.72%	4.62	UNDER 5.5· 63% +7%	med
Janson Junk	New York MetsNYM	21	22.98%	21.55%	4.61	UNDER 4.5· 51% +6%	med
Reynaldo López	Tampa Bay RaysTB	11	21.99%	22.51%	4.57	UNDER 4.5· 52%	med
Jackson Kent ⚠	San Diego PadresSD	5	21.17%	21.56%	4.5	—	low
Griffin Jax	Atlanta BravesATL	19	21.89%	22.07%	4.39	UNDER 4.5· 56% +0%	med
Kade Anderson ⚠	Texas RangersTEX	3	21.87%	21.82%	4.36	—	low
Walker Buehler	Washington NationalsWSH	28	22.39%	21.52%	4.35	UNDER 4.5· 56% +3%	med
Blade Tidwell ⚠	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	6	21.13%	21.68%	4.27	—	low
Logan Henderson	Chicago CubsCHC	15	19.6%	21.57%	4.2	UNDER 4.5· 59% +5%	med
Daniel Lynch IV ⚠	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	6	22.04%	22.0%	3.48	—	low
Brady Basso ⚠	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	4	22.45%	21.38%	2.16	—	low
Lake Bachar ⚠	Chicago White SoxCWS	8	20.09%	21.26%	1.82	—	low
Braydon Fisher ⚠	AthleticsATH	8	20.58%	21.63%	1.01	—	low

OUT

Outs Recorded

How deep into the game we expect each starter to go, in outs (3 outs = 1 inning). Blank where his outings are too up-and-down to price.

PitcherSP	Opp	St	IP/St	Proj OutsOuts	Pick	Confidence
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Cincinnati RedsCIN	25	6.6	19.7	OVER 18.5· 51% +7%	high
Cristopher Sánchez	Houston AstrosHOU	29	6.25	18.9	OVER 18.5· 55%	high
Zebby Matthews	Detroit TigersDET	20	5.85	17.5	OVER 17.5· 50%	high
Jake Bennett	Los Angeles AngelsLAA	17	5.86	17.4	OVER 16.5· 56% +7%	high
Logan Henderson	Chicago CubsCHC	15	5.55	17.3	UNDER 17.5· 51% +7%	high
Shane Baz	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	28	5.83	17.0	OVER 16.5· 56% +3%	high
Andre Pallante	San Francisco GiantsSF	25	5.64	16.8	OVER 16.5· 54%	high
Keider Montero	Minnesota TwinsMIN	23	5.6	16.6	OVER 16.5· 52%	high
Foster Griffin	Baltimore OriolesBAL	28	5.73	16.4	UNDER 16.5· 51% +2%	high
Hunter Brown	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	16	5.44	16.2	UNDER 16.5· 54%	high
Kevin Gausman	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	29	5.6	15.9	UNDER 17.5· 60% +7%	high
Zac Gallen	Kansas City RoyalsKC	19	5.16	15.7	OVER 15.5· 53%	high
Will Warren	Colorado RockiesCOL	26	5.13	15.5	UNDER 16.5· 54% +7%	high
Blade Tidwell ⚠	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	6	5.12	15.5	—	low
Walker Buehler	Washington NationalsWSH	28	4.87	15.4	UNDER 15.5· 51%	high
Janson Junk	New York MetsNYM	21	5.1	15.3	UNDER 15.5· 53%	high
Ryan Johnson	Boston Red SoxBOS	15	4.89	15.0	UNDER 15.5· 57%	high
Kade Anderson ⚠	Texas RangersTEX	3	5.0	14.9	—	low
Tomoyuki Sugano	New York YankeesNYY	25	5.27	14.9	OVER 14.5· 56%	high
Cody Bradford ⚠	Seattle MarinersSEA	6	5.05	14.9	—	low
Rhett Lowder	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	22	4.95	14.5	OVER 14.5· 50%	high
Davis Martin	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	25	5.23	14.3	UNDER 14.5· 52%	high
Jackson Kent ⚠	San Diego PadresSD	5	4.86	14.2	—	low
Reynaldo López	Tampa Bay RaysTB	11	4.52	14.0	UNDER 14.5· 55%	med
Griffin Jax	Atlanta BravesATL	19	4.49	13.3	UNDER 13.5· 52%	high
Robert Stock ⚠	Miami MarlinsMIA	6	4.33	—	—	low
Lake Bachar ⚠	Chicago White SoxCWS	8	2.34	—	—	low
Daniel Lynch IV ⚠	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	6	3.45	—	—	low
Brady Basso ⚠	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	4	2.0	—	—	low
Braydon Fisher ⚠	AthleticsATH	8	1.12	—	—	low

Earned Runs

Runs we expect each starter to give up. Priced against a whole-run line (1.5 / 2.5 / 3.5). This is the noisiest of the three markets, so confidence never goes above med.

PitcherSP	Opp	St	Proj ERER	Pick	Confidence
Zac Gallen	Kansas City RoyalsKC	19	3.25	UNDER 3.5· 61%	med
Rhett Lowder	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	22	3.02	UNDER 3.5· 65% +7%	med
Tomoyuki Sugano	New York YankeesNYY	25	2.82	UNDER 3.5· 65% +7%	med
Zebby Matthews	Detroit TigersDET	20	2.77	UNDER 2.5· 53%	med
Kevin Gausman	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	29	2.75	UNDER 2.5· 53% +4%	med
Will Warren	Colorado RockiesCOL	26	2.52	UNDER 2.5· 58% +2%	med
Shane Baz	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	28	2.51	UNDER 2.5· 58% +4%	med
Ryan Johnson	Boston Red SoxBOS	15	2.45	UNDER 2.5· 52% +7%	med
Jackson Kent ⚠	San Diego PadresSD	5	2.38	—	low
Jake Bennett	Los Angeles AngelsLAA	17	2.36	UNDER 2.5· 61% +3%	med
Davis Martin	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	25	2.36	OVER 1.5· 60% +3%	med
Robert Stock ⚠	Miami MarlinsMIA	6	2.36	—	low
Kade Anderson ⚠	Texas RangersTEX	3	2.28	—	low
Walker Buehler	Washington NationalsWSH	28	2.28	UNDER 2.5· 62%	med
Keider Montero	Minnesota TwinsMIN	23	2.27	UNDER 2.5· 63%	med
Hunter Brown	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	16	2.24	UNDER 2.5· 60% +7%	med
Blade Tidwell ⚠	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	6	2.24	—	low
Foster Griffin	Baltimore OriolesBAL	28	2.22	UNDER 2.5· 57% +7%	med
Cody Bradford ⚠	Seattle MarinersSEA	6	2.18	—	low
Andre Pallante	San Francisco GiantsSF	25	2.16	UNDER 2.5· 65%	med
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Cincinnati RedsCIN	25	2.13	OVER 1.5· 55% +1%	med
Reynaldo López	Tampa Bay RaysTB	11	2.13	UNDER 2.5· 66%	med
Janson Junk	New York MetsNYM	21	2.11	UNDER 2.5· 65% +7%	med
Cristopher Sánchez	Houston AstrosHOU	29	2.09	UNDER 2.5· 66%	med
Logan Henderson	Chicago CubsCHC	15	2.02	OVER 1.5· 53% -5%	med
Griffin Jax	Atlanta BravesATL	19	1.94	OVER 1.5· 51% -6%	med
Daniel Lynch IV ⚠	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	6	1.94	—	low
Brady Basso ⚠	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	4	1.03	—	low
Lake Bachar ⚠	Chicago White SoxCWS	8	0.89	—	low
Braydon Fisher ⚠	AthleticsATH	8	0.48	—	low

BAT

Batter Props

18 batters across 1 posted lineups, best chances first. 1+ Hit and 1+ RBI are the odds he gets at least one tonight. The three marked PICK are our strongest 1+ Hit calls and are graded into the track record. Lineups post 3–4 hours before first pitch, so late games may still be missing.

Batter	Team	#	Opp SP	vs	Hit%	1+ HitHit	1+ RBIRBI
PICK Kevin McGonigle	Detroit TigersDET	1	Zebby Matthews	RHP	22.7%	70%	36%
PICK Hao-Yu Lee	Detroit TigersDET	2	Zebby Matthews	RHP	22.6%	69%	35%
PICK Colt Keith	Detroit TigersDET	3	Zebby Matthews	RHP	22.7%	68%	34%
Luke Keaschall	Minnesota TwinsMIN	1	Keider Montero	RHP	22.6%	68%	35%
Riley Greene	Detroit TigersDET	4	Zebby Matthews	RHP	22.7%	67%	34%
Brooks Lee	Minnesota TwinsMIN	2	Keider Montero	RHP	22.7%	67%	36%
Dillon Dingler	Detroit TigersDET	5	Zebby Matthews	RHP	22.6%	66%	34%
Kody Clemens	Minnesota TwinsMIN	3	Keider Montero	RHP	22.5%	66%	35%
Brett Callahan	Detroit TigersDET	6	Zebby Matthews	RHP	22.6%	65%	33%
Josh Bell	Minnesota TwinsMIN	4	Keider Montero	RHP	22.5%	65%	34%
Kaelen Culpepper	Minnesota TwinsMIN	5	Keider Montero	RHP	22.6%	64%	33%
Max Clark	Detroit TigersDET	7	Zebby Matthews	RHP	22.6%	64%	32%
Trevor Larnach	Minnesota TwinsMIN	6	Keider Montero	RHP	22.7%	64%	33%
Ben Malgeri	Detroit TigersDET	8	Zebby Matthews	RHP	22.6%	64%	32%
John Peck	Detroit TigersDET	9	Zebby Matthews	RHP	22.6%	63%	31%
Royce Lewis	Minnesota TwinsMIN	7	Keider Montero	RHP	22.5%	63%	32%
Victor Caratini	Minnesota TwinsMIN	8	Keider Montero	RHP	22.5%	62%	31%
Walker Jenkins	Minnesota TwinsMIN	9	Keider Montero	RHP	22.6%	61%	31%

Extra Plays

The best outs and earned-run numbers on the board, same engine as the strikeout model. These sit outside the two-pick card above — they are newer markets for us, and we keep the opponent adjustment small on purpose, because this season's team splits are still mostly random.

Jake Bennett OVER 16.5 outs

vs Los Angeles Angels · 17.4 base × 1.002 matchup → 17.4

63%fair odds -168

Foster Griffin OVER 15.5 outs

vs Baltimore Orioles · 16.9 base × 0.992 matchup → 16.4

63%fair odds -167

Janson Junk OVER 14.5 outs

vs New York Mets · 15.3 base × 1.003 matchup → 15.3

62%fair odds -160

Logan Henderson UNDER 2.5 ER

vs Chicago Cubs · we project 2.02 earned runs

68%fair odds -211

Cristopher Sánchez UNDER 2.5 ER

vs Houston Astros · we project 2.09 earned runs

66%fair odds -198

Janson Junk UNDER 2.5 ER

vs New York Mets · we project 2.11 earned runs

66%fair odds -194

W-L

Track Record

Every pick we post gets graded the next day against the box score — wins, losses and all — see every one →

All picks 130-81 (62%) · parlay 3-13 · -9.07 units at $100 a card

9/17 8-69/16 7-89/15 9-59/14 11-39/13 9-59/12 8-59/11 11-39/10 8-5

Newest first. Past results do not predict future outcomes.

Every past card (16)

Our own projections · odds shown are fair value with no house cut — not sportsbook prices
Analysis only · not gambling advice · 21+
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