Today's Card

Sep 9 Prop Picks

Wed · Sep 9, 2026 15-game slate · 29 starters Strikeouts · outs · earned runs · batters

These are our numbers, not a sportsbook's. Every price on this page is a fair price — what the bet is worth with no house cut built in. A real book keeps a margin, so it will pay less than what you see here. Shop your own book's line before betting.

O+U

Tonight's Two

Our two biggest edges over the sportsbook's own price — one over, one under, from whichever market (strikeouts, outs, earned runs or hits) it shows up in. The line and the Mkt Edge are measured against a real book (pinnacle+bovada) wherever one has posted; where none has, we fall back to the nearest half-point line.

Tonight's Two fair odds +134 · 2.34×

Under
            Strikeouts
            Logan Henderson
            vs Chicago Cubs
Our Proj5.8 Ks
PINNACLE6.5 Ks
Mkt Edge+7%
Win %64%
Fair Odds-181
own 27.5% K rate × Chicago Cubs 21.5% vs RHP → adjusted 27.1%

Under
            Hits
            Hunter Brown
            vs Philadelphia Phillies
Our Proj4.73 hits
PINNACLE5.5 hits
Mkt Edge+6%
Win %66%
Fair Odds-196
own 20.09% hit rate × Philadelphia Phillies 21.66% → adjusted 20.48% × 23.1 BF

$100 bet · fair odds

$234.34

if both picks hit

+$134.34 profit

Fair-odds payout, not a sportsbook payout. Each pick is priced at the chance we give it (-181 Henderson × -196 Brown → +134 together, decimal 2.34). A real book takes its cut and will pay less than this.

PROPS EDGE · 2026-09-09 · our projection

Strikeouts

All 29 probable starters, most projected strikeouts first. Proj K is how many we expect him to get tonight; the Pick column is the side we'd take against the nearest half-point line, with our win chance beside it.

How we get the number

K% is how often the pitcher strikes a batter out over his own starts. Opp K% is how often that lineup strikes out against this hand. Adj K% blends the two — a strikeout pitcher facing a contact lineup lands between them, not at either extreme. Multiply that by BF/St (batters he faces in a typical start) and you get Proj K. Win chance comes from how far past the line the projection sits, scored against 2,130 completed 2026 starts, so it reflects how often we've actually been right by that margin — not a textbook curve.

we like the OVERwe like the UNDERtoo close to callbright = strong pick, faded = slight edge+6% = our edge over the book's pricetap a row to star it

PitcherSP	Opp	St	K%	Opp K%	Adj K%	BF/St	Proj KK	Pick	Confidence
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Cincinnati RedsCIN	25	26.4%	25.0%	29.9%	25.4	7.5	UNDER 7.5· 54% +1%	high
Cristopher Sánchez	Houston AstrosHOU	29	26.8%	21.5%	25.5%	25.9	6.5	UNDER 6.5· 54%	high
Kevin Gausman	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	29	24.9%	21.8%	24.8%	23.6	5.8	OVER 5.5· 50% +2%	high
Logan Henderson	Chicago CubsCHC	15	27.5%	21.5%	27.1%	20.7	5.8	UNDER 6.5· 64% +7%	high
Hunter Brown	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	16	24.8%	22.0%	24.9%	22.8	5.7	OVER 4.5· 63% +7%	high
Foster Griffin	Baltimore OriolesBAL	28	21.0%	25.4%	23.6%	23.5	5.5	UNDER 5.5· 54% +2%	high
Jake Bennett	Los Angeles AngelsLAA	17	22.2%	24.4%	23.5%	23.2	5.4	UNDER 5.5· 56% +2%	high
Zebby Matthews	Detroit TigersDET	20	20.2%	22.7%	21.2%	24.4	5.2	OVER 4.5· 50% +7%	high
Will Warren	Colorado RockiesCOL	26	22.3%	22.0%	22.4%	22.4	5.0	UNDER 5.5· 60% +2%	high
Griffin Jax	Atlanta BravesATL	19	25.4%	22.1%	25.6%	18.5	5.0	OVER 4.5· 53% +5%	high
Shane Baz	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	28	21.1%	21.0%	20.3%	24.8	4.9	OVER 4.5· 52% +5%	high
Jackson Kent ⚠	San Diego PadresSD	5	20.3%	22.4%	20.4%	22.4	4.6	—	low
Blade Tidwell ⚠	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	6	21.1%	21.6%	21.2%	21.5	4.5	—	low
Kade Anderson ⚠	Texas RangersTEX	3	20.2%	23.4%	21.4%	21.0	4.5	—	low
Davis Martin	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	25	19.8%	23.2%	21.1%	22.1	4.4	UNDER 4.5· 54% +7%	high
Robert Stock ⚠	Miami MarlinsMIA	6	20.6%	21.4%	20.4%	20.8	4.3	—	low
Walker Buehler	Washington NationalsWSH	28	20.7%	21.0%	20.3%	20.6	4.2	OVER 3.5· 61% -1%	high
Tomoyuki Sugano	New York YankeesNYY	25	15.3%	24.3%	17.2%	22.6	3.9	OVER 3.5· 56% +5%	high
Cody Bradford ⚠	Seattle MarinersSEA	6	15.3%	24.2%	16.8%	22.3	3.8	—	low
Ryan Johnson	Boston Red SoxBOS	15	18.7%	21.5%	17.9%	20.9	3.8	OVER 3.5· 51% +4%	high
Rhett Lowder	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	22	17.6%	20.9%	16.8%	22.3	3.8	OVER 3.5· 51% +0%	high
Andre Pallante	San Francisco GiantsSF	25	16.7%	20.7%	16.0%	23.4	3.7	UNDER 3.5· 51% -3%	high
Janson Junk	New York MetsNYM	21	16.4%	22.1%	16.8%	21.4	3.5	UNDER 3.5· 54% +2%	high
Keider Montero	Minnesota TwinsMIN	23	15.9%	20.7%	15.1%	22.6	3.4	UNDER 3.5· 56% -4%	high
Zac Gallen	Kansas City RoyalsKC	19	14.7%	20.5%	13.7%	23.2	3.3	OVER 2.5· 50% +7%	high
Lake Bachar ⚠	Chicago White SoxCWS	8	24.5%	23.4%	26.2%	9.1	2.4	—	low
Daniel Lynch IV ⚠	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	6	16.7%	19.2%	14.0%	15.2	2.2	—	low
Brady Basso ⚠	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	4	21.0%	20.6%	19.3%	9.2	1.8	—	low
Braydon Fisher ⚠	AthleticsATH	8	22.5%	21.6%	22.5%	4.6	1.1	—	low

Hits Allowed

Hits we expect each starter to give up. Same idea as strikeouts, flipped — Proj H is the number, the Pick is the side against the nearest half-point line.

How we get the number

Hit% is how often a batter gets a hit off this pitcher over his own starts. Opp Hit% is how often that lineup gets a hit against this hand. Adj Hit% blends the two, then nudges for the ballpark — hit and run environments move together. Multiply by BF/St (batters faced in a typical start) and you get Proj H. Win chance is scored the same way as the other markets, against completed 2026 starts.

we like the OVERwe like the UNDERtoo close to callbright = strong pick, faded = slight edge+6% = our edge over the book's pricetap a row to star it

PitcherSP	Opp	St	Hit%	Opp Hit%	Adj Hit%	BF/St	Proj HH	Pick	Confidence
Zac Gallen	Kansas City RoyalsKC	19	24.84%	21.83%	25.01%	23.2	5.97	OVER 5.5· 55%	med
Cristopher Sánchez	Houston AstrosHOU	29	22.68%	21.48%	23.03%	25.9	5.92	OVER 5.5· 54%	med
Shane Baz	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	28	22.62%	21.59%	22.99%	24.8	5.59	UNDER 5.5· 52% -5%	med
Kevin Gausman	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	29	22.78%	22.19%	23.32%	23.6	5.48	OVER 4.5· 63% +6%	med
Rhett Lowder	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	22	23.33%	22.13%	23.82%	22.3	5.46	UNDER 5.5· 54% +4%	med
Tomoyuki Sugano	New York YankeesNYY	25	24.29%	20.96%	23.75%	22.6	5.4	UNDER 5.5· 53% +7%	med
Will Warren	Colorado RockiesCOL	26	23.08%	22.08%	23.74%	22.4	5.33	UNDER 5.5· 56% -2%	med
Zebby Matthews	Detroit TigersDET	20	22.51%	21.57%	21.73%	24.4	5.3	UNDER 5.5· 56%	med
Jake Bennett	Los Angeles AngelsLAA	17	21.43%	21.47%	22.17%	23.2	5.14	UNDER 5.5· 59% +2%	med
Foster Griffin	Baltimore OriolesBAL	28	21.6%	21.48%	21.93%	23.5	5.08	UNDER 5.5· 59% +7%	med
Davis Martin	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	25	22.94%	22.2%	23.73%	22.1	4.96	OVER 4.5· 55% +2%	med
Cody Bradford ⚠	Seattle MarinersSEA	6	23.84%	21.09%	21.91%	22.3	4.92	—	low
Andre Pallante	San Francisco GiantsSF	25	22.02%	22.12%	21.12%	23.4	4.91	OVER 4.5· 54% -0%	med
Hunter Brown	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	16	20.09%	21.66%	20.48%	22.8	4.73	UNDER 5.5· 66% +6%	med
Keider Montero	Minnesota TwinsMIN	23	20.97%	21.91%	20.56%	22.6	4.63	UNDER 4.5· 51%	med
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Cincinnati RedsCIN	25	19.02%	20.88%	18.31%	25.4	4.62	UNDER 4.5· 51% +0%	med
Robert Stock ⚠	Miami MarlinsMIA	6	22.6%	21.99%	22.02%	20.8	4.62	—	low
Janson Junk	New York MetsNYM	21	23.02%	21.55%	21.98%	21.4	4.62	UNDER 4.5· 51% +4%	med
Ryan Johnson	Boston Red SoxBOS	15	20.99%	21.72%	21.88%	20.9	4.61	UNDER 5.5· 63% +7%	med
Jackson Kent ⚠	San Diego PadresSD	5	21.16%	21.56%	20.08%	22.4	4.5	—	low
Griffin Jax	Atlanta BravesATL	19	21.9%	22.07%	22.53%	18.5	4.39	UNDER 4.5· 56% +0%	med
Kade Anderson ⚠	Texas RangersTEX	3	21.88%	21.82%	20.79%	21.0	4.37	—	low
Walker Buehler	Washington NationalsWSH	28	22.4%	21.53%	21.14%	20.6	4.35	UNDER 4.5· 56% +3%	med
Blade Tidwell ⚠	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	6	21.11%	21.69%	19.86%	21.5	4.26	—	low
Logan Henderson	Chicago CubsCHC	15	19.54%	21.57%	19.45%	20.7	4.19	UNDER 4.5· 59% +5%	med
Daniel Lynch IV ⚠	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	6	22.06%	22.0%	22.48%	15.2	3.48	—	low
Brady Basso ⚠	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	4	22.5%	21.41%	23.44%	9.2	2.17	—	low
Lake Bachar ⚠	Chicago White SoxCWS	8	20.02%	21.26%	19.83%	9.1	1.81	—	low
Braydon Fisher ⚠	AthleticsATH	8	20.53%	21.64%	21.52%	4.6	1.01	—	low

OUT

Outs Recorded

How deep into the game we expect each starter to go, in outs (3 outs = 1 inning). Blank where his outings are too up-and-down to price.

How we get the number

IP/St is innings per start this year, and Base is that turned into outs with recent form weighted heavier. Matchup is the opponent nudge — how much traffic that lineup puts on and how many pitches it makes him throw. It is deliberately a small adjustment: team on-base splits this season are mostly random, so we lean on the pitcher's own workload rather than invent a matchup edge the data doesn't support.

we like the OVERwe like the UNDERtoo close to callbright = strong pick, faded = slight edge+6% = our edge over the book's pricetap a row to star it

PitcherSP	Opp	St	IP/St	Base	Matchup	Proj OutsOuts	Pick	Confidence
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Cincinnati RedsCIN	25	6.6	19.5	×1.008 -0.9	18.7	OVER 18.5· 51% +7%	high
Cristopher Sánchez	Houston AstrosHOU	29	6.25	18.8	×1.004 -0.2	18.7	OVER 18.5· 54%	high
Zebby Matthews	Detroit TigersDET	20	5.85	17.9	×1.003 -0.5	17.4	OVER 15.5· 60% +7%	high
Jake Bennett	Los Angeles AngelsLAA	17	5.86	17.4	×1.002 -0.2	17.2	OVER 16.5· 55% +7%	high
Shane Baz	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	28	5.83	17.1	×0.996 -0.0	17.0	OVER 16.5· 58% +5%	high
Logan Henderson	Chicago CubsCHC	15	5.55	17.7	×0.979 -0.5	16.8	UNDER 17.5· 51% +7%	high
Andre Pallante	San Francisco GiantsSF	25	5.64	17.0	×1.008 -0.4	16.7	OVER 15.5· 50% +7%	high
Keider Montero	Minnesota TwinsMIN	23	5.6	16.6	×1.002	16.6	UNDER 17.5· 61% +7%	high
Foster Griffin	Baltimore OriolesBAL	28	5.73	16.9	×0.992 -0.6	16.2	UNDER 16.5· 53% +3%	high
Hunter Brown	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	16	5.44	16.5	×1.008 -0.6	16.0	OVER 15.5· 58% +4%	high
Kevin Gausman	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	29	5.6	16.8	×0.971 -0.6	15.7	UNDER 17.5· 60% +7%	high
Walker Buehler	Washington NationalsWSH	28	4.87	15.3	×1.009 +0.3	15.7	OVER 15.5· 43% +7%	high
Janson Junk	New York MetsNYM	21	5.1	15.3	×1.003 +0.3	15.6	OVER 14.5· 55% +7%	high
Blade Tidwell ⚠	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	6	5.12	15.4	×1.007 -0.1	15.3	—	low
Ryan Johnson	Boston Red SoxBOS	15	4.89	15.2	×1.010 -0.1	15.3	OVER 14.5· 61% +7%	high
Kade Anderson ⚠	Texas RangersTEX	3	5.0	15.0	×0.992 +0.3	15.2	—	low
Cody Bradford ⚠	Seattle MarinersSEA	6	5.05	15.3	×1.001 -0.1	15.2	—	low
Zac Gallen	Kansas City RoyalsKC	19	5.16	15.9	×1.008 -1.1	15.0	OVER 11.5· 65% +7%	high
Will Warren	Colorado RockiesCOL	26	5.13	15.3	×1.010 -0.6	14.9	UNDER 16.5· 53% +7%	high
Rhett Lowder	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	22	4.95	15.3	×0.976 -0.0	14.9	UNDER 15.5· 54% -5%	high
Tomoyuki Sugano	New York YankeesNYY	25	5.27	15.4	×0.994 -0.5	14.8	UNDER 15.5· 58% +1%	high
Jackson Kent ⚠	San Diego PadresSD	5	4.86	14.6	×0.999 +0.1	14.7	—	low
Davis Martin	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	25	5.23	14.5	×0.982 -0.1	14.2	UNDER 15.5· 56% +7%	high
Griffin Jax	Atlanta BravesATL	19	4.49	13.8	×0.996 -0.2	13.6	UNDER 14.5· 58% +6%	high
Robert Stock ⚠	Miami MarlinsMIA	6	4.33	12.9	×1.001 -0.2	—	—	low
Lake Bachar ⚠	Chicago White SoxCWS	8	2.34	6.9	×1.002 +0.4	—	—	low
Daniel Lynch IV ⚠	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	6	3.45	10.7	×0.990 +1.2	—	—	low
Brady Basso ⚠	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	4	2.0	6.0	×1.009 +1.4	—	—	low
Braydon Fisher ⚠	AthleticsATH	8	1.12	3.4	×1.004 +0.3	—	—	low

Earned Runs

Runs we expect each starter to give up. Priced against a whole-run line (1.5 / 2.5 / 3.5). This is the noisiest of the three markets, so confidence never goes above med.

How we get the number

ER Rate is earned runs per batter faced across his starts, pulled toward the league average when he hasn't thrown much — a small sample shouldn't get treated like a full season. Opp× scales it by how well that lineup scores against this hand, Park× by the ballpark. Multiply through by batters faced and you get Proj ER. We price it as a count that can blow up — one bad inning is most of a bad night — rather than assuming runs trickle in evenly.

we like the OVERwe like the UNDERtoo close to callbright = strong pick, faded = slight edge+6% = our edge over the book's pricetap a row to star it

PitcherSP	Opp	St	ER Rate	Opp×	Park×	Proj ERER	Pick	Confidence
Zac Gallen	Kansas City RoyalsKC	19	13.63%	×1.001	×1.00	3.26	UNDER 3.5· 61%	med
Rhett Lowder	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	22	12.77%	×1.035	×1.00	3.03	UNDER 3.5· 65% +7%	med
Tomoyuki Sugano	New York YankeesNYY	25	12.46%	×0.988	×1.01	2.83	UNDER 3.5· 65% +7%	med
Zebby Matthews	Detroit TigersDET	20	11.80%	×0.995	×0.97	2.77	UNDER 2.5· 53%	med
Kevin Gausman	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	29	11.28%	×1.036	×1.00	2.75	UNDER 2.5· 53% +4%	med
Will Warren	Colorado RockiesCOL	26	10.76%	×1.032	×1.01	2.52	UNDER 2.5· 58% +2%	med
Shane Baz	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	28	10.34%	×0.979	×1.02	2.51	UNDER 2.5· 58% +4%	med
Ryan Johnson	Boston Red SoxBOS	15	11.24%	×0.995	×1.04	2.45	UNDER 2.5· 52% +7%	med
Jackson Kent ⚠	San Diego PadresSD	5	11.38%	×0.986	×0.95	2.39	—	low
Jake Bennett	Los Angeles AngelsLAA	17	9.91%	×0.987	×1.04	2.36	UNDER 2.5· 61% +3%	med
Davis Martin	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	25	10.77%	×1.040	×1.01	2.36	OVER 1.5· 60% +3%	med
Robert Stock ⚠	Miami MarlinsMIA	6	11.50%	×1.019	×0.96	2.36	—	low
Kade Anderson ⚠	Texas RangersTEX	3	11.26%	×1.029	×0.94	2.29	—	low
Walker Buehler	Washington NationalsWSH	28	11.52%	×1.013	×0.95	2.28	UNDER 2.5· 62%	med
Keider Montero	Minnesota TwinsMIN	23	10.24%	×1.017	×0.97	2.28	UNDER 2.5· 62%	med
Blade Tidwell ⚠	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	6	11.40%	×0.977	×0.94	2.25	—	low
Hunter Brown	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	16	9.61%	×0.986	×1.02	2.23	UNDER 2.5· 60% +7%	med
Foster Griffin	Baltimore OriolesBAL	28	9.39%	×1.000	×1.02	2.22	UNDER 2.5· 57% +7%	med
Cody Bradford ⚠	Seattle MarinersSEA	6	10.80%	×0.958	×0.94	2.19	—	low
Andre Pallante	San Francisco GiantsSF	25	9.83%	×1.004	×0.94	2.16	OVER 1.5· 56% -2%	med
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Cincinnati RedsCIN	25	8.66%	×0.972	×1.00	2.13	OVER 1.5· 55% +1%	med
Janson Junk	New York MetsNYM	21	10.65%	×0.982	×0.96	2.11	UNDER 2.5· 65% +7%	med
Cristopher Sánchez	Houston AstrosHOU	29	7.98%	×0.995	×1.02	2.08	UNDER 2.5· 67%	med
Logan Henderson	Chicago CubsCHC	15	9.00%	×1.036	×1.00	2.01	OVER 1.5· 52% -6%	med
Daniel Lynch IV ⚠	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	6	12.25%	×1.029	×1.00	1.95	—	low
Griffin Jax	Atlanta BravesATL	19	9.80%	×1.005	×1.01	1.94	OVER 1.5· 51% -6%	med
Brady Basso ⚠	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	4	10.95%	×0.973	×1.05	1.03	—	low
Lake Bachar ⚠	Chicago White SoxCWS	8	9.62%	×1.000	×1.01	0.89	—	low
Braydon Fisher ⚠	AthleticsATH	8	9.76%	×1.000	×1.05	0.48	—	low

BAT

Batter Props

18 batters across 1 posted lineups, best chances first. 1+ Hit and 1+ RBI are the odds he gets at least one tonight. Lineups post 3–4 hours before first pitch, so late games may still be missing.

How we get the number

Hit% is how often this batter gets a hit against pitchers of this hand. Adj folds in how many hits tonight's starter actually gives up. PA is how many times he should come to the plate, from his spot in the order — and we split those trips between the starter and the bullpen using how deep we expect the starter to go, because the reliever he faces in the 8th is a different problem than the starter he faces in the 1st. RBI is priced to allow for bunching: a three-run homer is one plate appearance, not three.

we like the OVERwe like the UNDERtoo close to callbright = strong pick, faded = slight edge+6% = our edge over the book's pricetap a row to star it

Batter	Team	#	Opp SP	vs	Hit%	Adj	PA	1+ HitHit	1+ RBIRBI
Kevin McGonigle	Detroit TigersDET	1	Zebby Matthews	RHP	22.7%	22.6%	4.65	70%	36%
Hao-Yu Lee	Detroit TigersDET	2	Zebby Matthews	RHP	22.6%	22.6%	4.55	69%	35%
Colt Keith	Detroit TigersDET	3	Zebby Matthews	RHP	22.7%	22.6%	4.45	68%	34%
Luke Keaschall	Minnesota TwinsMIN	1	Keider Montero	RHP	22.6%	21.0%	4.65	68%	35%
Riley Greene	Detroit TigersDET	4	Zebby Matthews	RHP	22.7%	22.6%	4.35	67%	34%
Brooks Lee	Minnesota TwinsMIN	2	Keider Montero	RHP	22.7%	21.1%	4.55	67%	36%
Dillon Dingler	Detroit TigersDET	5	Zebby Matthews	RHP	22.6%	22.5%	4.25	66%	34%
Kody Clemens	Minnesota TwinsMIN	3	Keider Montero	RHP	22.5%	20.9%	4.45	66%	35%
Brett Callahan	Detroit TigersDET	6	Zebby Matthews	RHP	22.6%	22.5%	4.15	65%	33%
Josh Bell	Minnesota TwinsMIN	4	Keider Montero	RHP	22.5%	20.9%	4.35	65%	34%
Kaelen Culpepper	Minnesota TwinsMIN	5	Keider Montero	RHP	22.6%	21.0%	4.25	64%	33%
Max Clark	Detroit TigersDET	7	Zebby Matthews	RHP	22.6%	22.5%	4.05	64%	32%
Trevor Larnach	Minnesota TwinsMIN	6	Keider Montero	RHP	22.7%	21.1%	4.15	64%	33%
Ben Malgeri	Detroit TigersDET	8	Zebby Matthews	RHP	22.6%	22.5%	3.95	64%	32%
John Peck	Detroit TigersDET	9	Zebby Matthews	RHP	22.6%	22.5%	3.85	63%	31%
Royce Lewis	Minnesota TwinsMIN	7	Keider Montero	RHP	22.5%	20.9%	4.05	63%	32%
Victor Caratini	Minnesota TwinsMIN	8	Keider Montero	RHP	22.5%	20.9%	3.95	62%	31%
Walker Jenkins	Minnesota TwinsMIN	9	Keider Montero	RHP	22.6%	20.9%	3.85	61%	31%

Extra Plays

The best outs and earned-run numbers on the board, same engine as the strikeout model. These sit outside the two-pick card above — they are newer markets for us, and we keep the opponent adjustment small on purpose, because this season's team splits are still mostly random.

Ryan Johnson OVER 14.5 outs

vs Boston Red Sox · 15.2 base × 1.01 matchup → 15.3

62%fair odds -164

Zebby Matthews OVER 16.5 outs

vs Detroit Tigers · 17.9 base × 1.003 matchup → 17.4

62%fair odds -161

Jake Bennett OVER 16.5 outs

vs Los Angeles Angels · 17.4 base × 1.002 matchup → 17.2

61%fair odds -159

Logan Henderson UNDER 2.5 ER

vs Chicago Cubs · we project 2.01 earned runs

68%fair odds -213

Cristopher Sánchez UNDER 2.5 ER

vs Houston Astros · we project 2.08 earned runs

67%fair odds -200

Janson Junk UNDER 2.5 ER

vs New York Mets · we project 2.11 earned runs

66%fair odds -194

W-L

Track Record

Every pick we post gets graded the next day against the box score — wins, losses and all — see every one →

All picks 45-39 (54%) · parlay 1-6 · -5.13 units at $100 a card

9/8 7-59/7 7-59/6 9-39/5 3-99/4 5-79/3 6-69/2 8-4

Newest first. Past results do not predict future outcomes.

Every past card (8)

Our own projections · odds shown are fair value with no house cut — not sportsbook prices
Analysis only · not gambling advice · 21+
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