Tonight's Card

Sep 13 Prop Picks

Sun · Sep 13, 2026 15-game slate · 28 starters Strikeouts · outs · earned runs · batters

Live record · since Sep 2 · 16 slates

130-81Picks graded

62%Hit rate

-9.1uUnits · $100/card

3-13Parlay record

Fair prices, not sportsbook prices. No house cut is built in, so your book will pay a little less — shop your own line before betting.

O+U

Tonight's Two

Our two biggest edges over the sportsbook's own price — one over, one under, from whichever market (strikeouts, outs, earned runs or hits) it shows up in. The line and the Mkt Edge are measured against a real book (pinnacle+bovada) wherever one has posted; where none has, we fall back to the nearest half-point line.

Tonight's Two fair odds +152 · 2.52×

Under Outs Trevor Rogers vs Toronto Blue Jays

Our Proj17.1 outs

PINNACLE18.5 outs

Mkt Edge+3%

Win %64%

Fair Odds-180

Under Outs Michael McGreevy vs Chicago White Sox

Our Proj16.5 outs

PINNACLE17.5 outs

Mkt Edge+7%

Win %62%

Fair Odds-161

$100 bet · fair odds

$251.70

if both picks hit

+$151.70 profit

Fair-odds payout, not a sportsbook payout. Each pick is priced at the chance we give it (-180 Rogers × -161 McGreevy → +152 together, decimal 2.52). A real book takes its cut and will pay less than this.

PROPS EDGE · 2026-09-13 · our projection

On the Record

These 14 calls are the record. Everything else on this page is projection and context — useful for finding your own angle, but not scored. Tomorrow morning each row below is graded against the box score and the running track record moves by exactly these results, win or lose. Nothing is added afterwards and nothing quietly drops out.

Player	Source	Market	Pick	Line	Win %
Trevor Rogers	Tonight's Two	OUTS	Under	18.5	64%
Michael McGreevy	Tonight's Two	OUTS	Under	17.5	62%
Gabriel Hughes	Extra play	K	Over	3.5	63%
Christian Scott	Extra play	ER	Under	2.5	65%
Payton Tolle	Extra play	ER	Under	2.5	64%
Freddy Peralta	Extra play	ER	Over	1.5	64%
Freddy Peralta	Outs lean	OUTS	Over	15.5	65%
Michael McGreevy	Outs lean	OUTS	Over	15.5	64%
Hayden Wesneski	Outs lean	OUTS	Over	15.5	61%
Grayson Rodriguez	ER lean	ER	Under	3.5	65%
Andrew Painter	ER lean	ER	Under	3.5	64%
Michael Harris II	Batter	HIT	1+ Hit		73%
Yandy Díaz	Batter	HIT	1+ Hit		72%
Alec Burleson	Batter	HIT	1+ Hit		72%

OVERUNDERtoo closehighest-confidence pick+6% edge over the booktap a row to star it

Strikeouts

All 28 probable starters, most projected strikeouts first — Proj K is tonight's number, Pick is the side against the nearest half-point line.

PitcherSP	Opp	St	K%	Opp K%	Proj KK	Pick	Confidence
Dylan Cease	Baltimore OriolesBAL	27	33.1%	23.5%	8.3	UNDER 8.5· 57% +3%	high
Cam Schlittler	New York MetsNYM	30	30.5%	22.0%	7.3	UNDER 7.5· 57% -1%	high
Chase Burns	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	27	29.3%	21.7%	6.3	UNDER 6.5· 57%	high
Payton Tolle	Kansas City RoyalsKC	24	28.5%	21.9%	6.2	UNDER 6.5· 58% +2%	high
Christian Scott	New York YankeesNYY	21	26.4%	24.1%	6.1	OVER 5.5· 58% +3%	high
Emmet Sheehan	Miami MarlinsMIA	21	27.3%	21.3%	5.6	UNDER 5.5· 52% -1%	high
Jake Irvin	Los Angeles AngelsLAA	19	21.6%	24.9%	5.5	OVER 4.5· 60% +7%	high
Eury Pérez	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	26	24.2%	20.8%	5.2	UNDER 5.5· 58% +5%	high
Jacob Lopez	Seattle MarinersSEA	21	22.1%	23.8%	5.2	OVER 4.5· 56% +1%	high
Trevor Rogers	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	27	23.5%	20.7%	5.1	OVER 4.5· 56% +4%	high
Robert Gasser	Cincinnati RedsCIN	17	21.7%	24.1%	5.1	OVER 4.5· 60% +5%	high
Matthew Boyd	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	19	19.0%	25.1%	5.1	UNDER 5.5· 55% +7%	high
Bryce Miller	AthleticsATH	18	23.2%	21.6%	5.1	OVER 4.5· 55% +7%	high
Noah Cameron	Boston Red SoxBOS	27	21.7%	21.8%	4.9	UNDER 5.5· 61% +4%	high
Eduardo Rodriguez	Texas RangersTEX	29	19.4%	23.4%	4.9	OVER 4.5· 54% +0%	high
Logan Webb	San Diego PadresSD	26	20.5%	21.5%	4.9	OVER 4.5· 53% -4%	high
Freddy Peralta	Houston AstrosHOU	29	20.8%	22.0%	4.8	OVER 4.5· 51% -8%	high
Andrew Painter	Atlanta BravesATL	20	20.7%	21.7%	4.7	UNDER 4.5· 51% -3%	high
Bubba Chandler	Chicago CubsCHC	27	21.6%	21.4%	4.6	UNDER 4.5· 52% -4%	high
Jackson Jobe ⚠	Colorado RockiesCOL	6	21.0%	22.1%	4.5	—	low
Gabriel Hughes	Detroit TigersDET	11	19.3%	22.6%	4.4	OVER 3.5· 63% +7%	med
Grayson Rodriguez	Washington NationalsWSH	17	20.8%	21.0%	4.4	UNDER 4.5· 55% +7%	high
Cal Quantrill	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	13	21.6%	20.2%	4.4	UNDER 4.5· 55% -8%	med
Nick Pivetta ⚠	San Francisco GiantsSF	5	27.4%	20.7%	4.4	—	low
Michael McGreevy	Chicago White SoxCWS	28	17.3%	23.5%	4.3	OVER 3.5· 62% +4%	high
Hayden Wesneski	Tampa Bay RaysTB	8	21.1%	19.1%	4.1	OVER 3.5· 53% +7%	low
Tanner Bibee	Minnesota TwinsMIN	30	18.5%	20.6%	4.1	OVER 3.5· 56% -2%	high
Grant Holmes	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	27	18.5%	22.1%	3.8	OVER 3.5· 51% +4%	high

Hits Allowed

Hits we expect each starter to give up — Proj H is the number, the Pick is the side against the nearest half-point line.

PitcherSP	Opp	St	Hit%	Opp Hit%	Proj HH	Pick	Confidence
Noah Cameron	Boston Red SoxBOS	27	21.67%	21.76%	5.39	UNDER 5.5· 55%	med
Eduardo Rodriguez	Texas RangersTEX	29	21.53%	21.89%	5.35	UNDER 5.5· 55% +0%	med
Trevor Rogers	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	27	22.15%	21.42%	5.28	UNDER 5.5· 52% +7%	med
Matthew Boyd	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	19	21.78%	21.68%	5.25	OVER 4.5· 60% +7%	med
Andrew Painter	Atlanta BravesATL	20	22.34%	22.13%	5.24	UNDER 5.5· 57% +4%	med
Payton Tolle	Kansas City RoyalsKC	24	21.25%	21.69%	5.1	UNDER 5.5· 60%	med
Tanner Bibee	Minnesota TwinsMIN	30	21.67%	21.97%	5.1	UNDER 5.5· 60% +5%	med
Bryce Miller	AthleticsATH	18	21.55%	21.65%	4.96	UNDER 5.5· 62% +7%	med
Michael McGreevy	Chicago White SoxCWS	28	22.32%	21.19%	4.95	UNDER 5.5· 60% +7%	med
Jacob Lopez	Seattle MarinersSEA	21	21.56%	21.16%	4.92	UNDER 5.5· 63% +5%	med
Grayson Rodriguez	Washington NationalsWSH	17	22.27%	21.54%	4.9	UNDER 5.5· 63% +7%	med
Cam Schlittler	New York MetsNYM	30	20.36%	21.71%	4.87	OVER 3.5· 63% +7%	med
Freddy Peralta	Houston AstrosHOU	29	22.08%	21.62%	4.87	OVER 4.5· 54% +6%	med
Robert Gasser	Cincinnati RedsCIN	17	21.72%	21.7%	4.78	OVER 3.5· 62% +7%	med
Hayden Wesneski	Tampa Bay RaysTB	8	21.36%	22.57%	4.75	UNDER 5.5· 64% +7%	low
Logan Webb	San Diego PadresSD	26	21.67%	21.28%	4.73	UNDER 5.5· 58% +7%	med
Chase Burns	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	27	21.12%	22.39%	4.71	OVER 4.5· 51%	med
Jake Irvin	Los Angeles AngelsLAA	19	21.7%	21.28%	4.71	UNDER 5.5· 65% +7%	med
Bubba Chandler	Chicago CubsCHC	27	21.21%	21.63%	4.62	UNDER 4.5· 51%	med
Cal Quantrill	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	13	21.45%	21.11%	4.62	UNDER 5.5· 58% +7%	med
Dylan Cease	Baltimore OriolesBAL	27	19.93%	21.09%	4.61	OVER 3.5· 64% +7%	med
Gabriel Hughes	Detroit TigersDET	11	21.94%	21.62%	4.59	UNDER 5.5· 62% +7%	med
Eury Pérez	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	26	21.0%	22.18%	4.58	UNDER 4.5· 52% -4%	med
Jackson Jobe ⚠	Colorado RockiesCOL	6	21.76%	22.07%	4.53	—	low
Grant Holmes	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	27	21.49%	21.68%	4.45	UNDER 4.5· 53% +7%	med
Emmet Sheehan	Miami MarlinsMIA	21	21.81%	22.12%	4.41	UNDER 4.5· 55% -1%	med
Christian Scott	New York YankeesNYY	21	21.22%	21.05%	4.38	UNDER 4.5· 56% -2%	med
Nick Pivetta ⚠	San Francisco GiantsSF	5	21.46%	22.21%	3.43	—	low

OUT

Outs Recorded

How deep into the game we expect each starter to go, in outs (3 outs = 1 inning). Blank where his outings are too up-and-down to price.

PitcherSP	Opp	St	IP/St	Proj OutsOuts	Pick	Confidence
Cam Schlittler	New York MetsNYM	30	5.96	17.9	OVER 17.5· 56% +2%	high
Payton Tolle	Kansas City RoyalsKC	24	5.71	17.2	UNDER 17.5· 52% +5%	high
Matthew Boyd	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	19	5.75	17.2	UNDER 17.5· 47% +7%	high
Eduardo Rodriguez	Texas RangersTEX	29	5.97	17.2	UNDER 17.5· 51% +6%	high
Dylan Cease	Baltimore OriolesBAL	27	5.97	17.1	UNDER 17.5· 45% +7%	high
Trevor Rogers	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	27	5.62	17.1	UNDER 18.5· 64% +3%	high
Noah Cameron	Boston Red SoxBOS	27	5.68	16.7	UNDER 17.5· 56% +6%	high
Cal Quantrill	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	13	5.33	16.6	UNDER 17.5· 57% -3%	med
Freddy Peralta	Houston AstrosHOU	29	5.28	16.5	OVER 16.5· 52% +4%	high
Michael McGreevy	Chicago White SoxCWS	28	5.5	16.5	UNDER 17.5· 62% +7%	high
Logan Webb	San Diego PadresSD	26	5.99	16.3	UNDER 17.5· 48% +7%	high
Hayden Wesneski	Tampa Bay RaysTB	8	5.71	16.3	UNDER 16.5· 50%	low
Tanner Bibee	Minnesota TwinsMIN	30	5.69	16.3	OVER 16.5· 50% -1%	high
Andrew Painter	Atlanta BravesATL	20	5.01	15.8	UNDER 16.5· 55% +4%	high
Jacob Lopez	Seattle MarinersSEA	21	4.87	15.6	UNDER 16.5· 57% +6%	high
Bryce Miller	AthleticsATH	18	5.41	15.2	UNDER 15.5· 52% +3%	high
Grant Holmes	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	27	4.95	15.0	UNDER 15.5· 54%	high
Jake Irvin	Los Angeles AngelsLAA	19	4.81	14.9	UNDER 15.5· 56%	high
Grayson Rodriguez	Washington NationalsWSH	17	4.81	14.9	UNDER 15.5· 55%	high
Eury Pérez	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	26	5.36	14.8	OVER 14.5· 55%	high
Chase Burns	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	27	5.49	14.7	OVER 14.5· 55%	high
Bubba Chandler	Chicago CubsCHC	27	5.06	14.7	UNDER 16.5· 59% +7%	high
Robert Gasser	Cincinnati RedsCIN	17	5.06	14.6	OVER 14.5· 54%	high
Gabriel Hughes	Detroit TigersDET	11	4.94	14.6	OVER 14.5· 54%	med
Jackson Jobe ⚠	Colorado RockiesCOL	6	4.72	14.3	—	low
Emmet Sheehan	Miami MarlinsMIA	21	4.81	14.0	UNDER 14.5· 54%	high
Christian Scott	New York YankeesNYY	21	4.73	13.8	OVER 13.5· 55%	high
Nick Pivetta ⚠	San Francisco GiantsSF	5	4.2	—	—	low

Earned Runs

Runs we expect each starter to give up. Priced against a whole-run line (1.5 / 2.5 / 3.5). This is the noisiest of the three markets, so confidence never goes above med.

PitcherSP	Opp	St	Proj ERER	Pick	Confidence
Andrew Painter	Atlanta BravesATL	20	3.04	OVER 2.5· 54% +2%	med
Grayson Rodriguez	Washington NationalsWSH	17	3.03	OVER 2.5· 53% +2%	med
Gabriel Hughes	Detroit TigersDET	11	2.73	UNDER 2.5· 53% +4%	med
Noah Cameron	Boston Red SoxBOS	27	2.71	UNDER 2.5· 53%	med
Jake Irvin	Los Angeles AngelsLAA	19	2.67	UNDER 2.5· 54% -0%	med
Tanner Bibee	Minnesota TwinsMIN	30	2.64	UNDER 2.5· 54% +0%	med
Freddy Peralta	Houston AstrosHOU	29	2.61	OVER 1.5· 64% +7%	med
Bryce Miller	AthleticsATH	18	2.56	UNDER 2.5· 56% +3%	med
Trevor Rogers	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	27	2.55	UNDER 2.5· 56% +5%	med
Matthew Boyd	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	19	2.54	OVER 1.5· 57% +7%	med
Jacob Lopez	Seattle MarinersSEA	21	2.53	UNDER 2.5· 54% +7%	med
Robert Gasser	Cincinnati RedsCIN	17	2.53	OVER 1.5· 57% +7%	med
Emmet Sheehan	Miami MarlinsMIA	21	2.48	OVER 1.5· 64% +6%	med
Bubba Chandler	Chicago CubsCHC	27	2.45	UNDER 2.5· 58%	med
Logan Webb	San Diego PadresSD	26	2.39	UNDER 2.5· 60% +3%	med
Michael McGreevy	Chicago White SoxCWS	28	2.38	UNDER 2.5· 58% +7%	med
Eury Pérez	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	26	2.32	UNDER 2.5· 61% +6%	med
Jackson Jobe ⚠	Colorado RockiesCOL	6	2.25	—	low
Hayden Wesneski	Tampa Bay RaysTB	8	2.20	UNDER 2.5· 62% +7%	low
Payton Tolle	Kansas City RoyalsKC	24	2.18	UNDER 2.5· 64%	med
Christian Scott	New York YankeesNYY	21	2.11	UNDER 2.5· 65% +7%	med
Eduardo Rodriguez	Texas RangersTEX	29	1.96	UNDER 2.5· 62% +7%	med
Grant Holmes	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	27	1.96	UNDER 2.5· 62% +7%	med
Chase Burns	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	27	1.87	OVER 1.5· 50%	med
Cal Quantrill	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	13	1.81	UNDER 2.5· 54% +7%	med
Dylan Cease	Baltimore OriolesBAL	27	1.80	UNDER 1.5· 49% +7%	med
Cam Schlittler	New York MetsNYM	30	1.63	UNDER 1.5· 55% +7%	med
Nick Pivetta ⚠	San Francisco GiantsSF	5	1.60	—	low

BAT

Batter Props

269 batters across 15 posted lineups, best chances first. 1+ Hit and 1+ RBI are the odds he gets at least one tonight. The three marked PICK are our strongest 1+ Hit calls and are graded into the track record. Lineups post 3–4 hours before first pitch, so late games may still be missing.

Batter	Team	#	Opp SP	vs	Hit%	1+ HitHit	1+ RBIRBI
PICK Michael Harris II	Atlanta BravesATL	1	Andrew Painter	RHP	24.8%	73%	40%
PICK Yandy Díaz	Tampa Bay RaysTB	1	Hayden Wesneski	RHP	24.6%	72%	35%
PICK Alec Burleson	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	3	David Sandlin	RHP	24.8%	72%	39%
Elly De La Cruz	Cincinnati RedsCIN	2	Robert Gasser	LHP	24.3%	71%	39%
Steven Kwan	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	1	Joe Ryan	RHP	23.5%	71%	26%
Otto Lopez	Miami MarlinsMIA	3	Emmet Sheehan	RHP	24.6%	71%	31%
Luis Arraez	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	4	Grant Holmes	RHP	25.1%	71%	31%
Jung Hoo Lee	San Francisco GiantsSF	2	Nick Pivetta	RHP	24.2%	71%	33%
Fernando Tatis Jr.	San Diego PadresSD	1	Logan Webb	RHP	23.6%	71%	35%
Justin Foscue	Texas RangersTEX	1	Eduardo Rodriguez	LHP	23.7%	71%	39%
Sam Antonacci	Chicago White SoxCWS	1	Michael McGreevy	RHP	23.0%	70%	32%
Wade Meckler	Los Angeles AngelsLAA	3	Riley Cornelio	RHP	23.9%	70%	33%
Freddie Freeman	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	2	Eury Pérez	RHP	24.2%	70%	36%
Luis García Jr.	New York YankeesNYY	4	Christian Scott	RHP	24.9%	70%	41%
Konnor Griffin	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	1	Matthew Boyd	LHP	23.2%	70%	35%
Jeff McNeil	AthleticsATH	2	Bryce Miller	RHP	23.6%	70%	37%
Oneil Cruz	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	2	Matthew Boyd	LHP	23.5%	70%	36%
Jackson Chourio	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	2	Chase Burns	RHP	23.8%	70%	37%
Gabriel Moreno	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	3	Cal Quantrill	RHP	24.1%	70%	35%
Chandler Simpson	Tampa Bay RaysTB	5	Hayden Wesneski	RHP	25.1%	70%	26%
Dane Myers	Cincinnati RedsCIN	1	Robert Gasser	LHP	22.9%	70%	34%
Jonathan Aranda	Tampa Bay RaysTB	2	Hayden Wesneski	RHP	23.6%	70%	40%
Drake Baldwin	Atlanta BravesATL	4	Andrew Painter	RHP	23.9%	70%	38%
Brooks Lee	Minnesota TwinsMIN	2	Tanner Bibee	RHP	23.4%	70%	40%

Extra Plays

The best outs and earned-run numbers on the board, same engine as the strikeout model. These sit outside the two-pick card above — they are newer markets for us, and we keep the opponent adjustment small on purpose, because this season's team splits are still mostly random.

Freddy Peralta OVER 15.5 outs

vs Houston Astros · 16.4 base × 1.003 matchup → 16.5

65%fair odds -182

Michael McGreevy OVER 15.5 outs

vs Chicago White Sox · 16.6 base × 1.003 matchup → 16.5

64%fair odds -180

Hayden Wesneski OVER 15.5 outs

vs Tampa Bay Rays · 16.9 base × 0.999 matchup → 16.3

61%fair odds -158

Christian Scott UNDER 2.5 ER

vs New York Yankees · we project 2.11 earned runs

66%fair odds -191

Grayson Rodriguez UNDER 3.5 ER

vs Washington Nationals · we project 3.03 earned runs

65%fair odds -182

Andrew Painter UNDER 3.5 ER

vs Atlanta Braves · we project 3.04 earned runs

64%fair odds -181

W-L

Track Record

Every pick we post gets graded the next day against the box score — wins, losses and all — see every one →

All picks 130-81 (62%) · parlay 3-13 · -9.07 units at $100 a card

9/17 8-69/16 7-89/15 9-59/14 11-39/13 9-59/12 8-59/11 11-39/10 8-5

Newest first. Past results do not predict future outcomes.

Every past card (16)

Our own projections · odds shown are fair value with no house cut — not sportsbook prices
Analysis only · not gambling advice · 21+
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