Today's Card

Sep 5 Prop Picks

Sat · Sep 5, 2026 15-game slate · 30 starters Strikeouts · outs · earned runs · batters

These are our numbers, not a sportsbook's. Every price on this page is a fair price — what the bet is worth with no house cut built in. A real book keeps a margin, so it will pay less than what you see here. Shop your own book's line before betting.

O+U

Tonight's Two

Our two biggest edges over the sportsbook's own price — one over, one under, from whichever market (strikeouts, outs, earned runs or hits) it shows up in. The line and the Mkt Edge are measured against a real book (bovada) wherever one has posted; where none has, we fall back to the nearest half-point line.

Tonight's Two fair odds +190 · 2.9×

Under
            Hits
            Tyler Glasnow
            vs Washington Nationals
Our Proj4.1 hits
Line4.5 hits
Edge-0.4
Win %61%
Fair Odds-156
own 19.83% hit rate × Washington Nationals 21.62% → adjusted 19.77% × 20.8 BF

Under
            Outs
            Javier Assad
            vs Miami Marlins
Our Proj13.9 outs
Line14.5 outs
Edge-0.6
Win %57%
Fair Odds-131
5.2 IP/start → 15.4 outs, matchup ×1.002, road -1.5 → 13.9

$100 bet · fair odds

$289.82

if both picks hit

+$189.82 profit

Fair-odds payout, not a sportsbook payout. Each pick is priced at the chance we give it (-156 Glasnow × -131 Assad → +190 together, decimal 2.9). A real book takes its cut and will pay less than this.

PROPS EDGE · 2026-09-05 · our projection

Strikeouts

All 30 probable starters, most projected strikeouts first. Proj K is how many we expect him to get tonight; the Pick column is the side we'd take against the nearest half-point line, with our win chance beside it.

How we get the number

K% is how often the pitcher strikes a batter out over his own starts. Opp K% is how often that lineup strikes out against this hand. Adj K% blends the two — a strikeout pitcher facing a contact lineup lands between them, not at either extreme. Multiply that by BF/St (batters he faces in a typical start) and you get Proj K. Win chance comes from how far past the line the projection sits, scored against 2,130 completed 2026 starts, so it reflects how often we've actually been right by that margin — not a textbook curve.

we like the OVERwe like the UNDERtoo close to callbright = strong pick, faded = slight edge+6% = our edge over the book's pricetap a row to star it

PitcherSP	Opp	St	K%	Opp K%	Adj K%	BF/St	Proj KK	Pick	Confidence
Taj Bradley	Chicago White SoxCWS	27	27.4%	23.3%	29.0%	24.2	7.0	OVER 6.5· 53%	high
Braxton Ashcraft	Los Angeles AngelsLAA	27	23.9%	24.8%	27.1%	23.9	6.5	UNDER 6.5· 54%	high
Zack Wheeler	Atlanta BravesATL	23	27.1%	22.2%	27.5%	22.8	6.4	UNDER 6.5· 55%	high
Cade Cavalli	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	29	29.3%	20.9%	28.2%	22.1	6.3	OVER 5.5· 56%	high
Parker Messick	Detroit TigersDET	27	25.4%	23.0%	25.9%	23.6	6.2	OVER 5.5· 58%	high
Tyler Glasnow	Washington NationalsWSH	9	29.7%	20.9%	28.5%	21.3	5.9	OVER 5.5· 52%	low
Matthew Liberatore	Colorado RockiesCOL	27	25.1%	24.3%	26.1%	21.8	5.8	OVER 5.5· 50%	high
Sonny Gray	Baltimore OriolesBAL	25	22.3%	23.4%	23.9%	23.4	5.7	UNDER 5.5· 51%	high
Drew Rasmussen	Texas RangersTEX	26	25.0%	22.1%	25.3%	22.1	5.6	UNDER 5.5· 53%	high
Jacob deGrom	Tampa Bay RaysTB	26	29.7%	19.2%	26.4%	21.6	5.5	UNDER 5.5· 54%	high
Yusei Kikuchi	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	9	22.6%	25.4%	25.5%	21.3	5.4	UNDER 5.5· 55%	low
Anthony Molina ⚠	New York MetsNYM	1	23.0%	22.3%	23.7%	21.0	5.0	—	low
Carlos Rodón	San Diego PadresSD	12	24.3%	22.5%	24.7%	20.6	5.0	OVER 4.5· 56%	med
Robbie Ray	New York YankeesNYY	26	19.5%	24.2%	21.4%	23.0	4.9	OVER 4.5· 54%	high
Dustin May	Cincinnati RedsCIN	26	21.5%	24.9%	24.2%	21.0	4.8	UNDER 4.5· 50%	high
George Kirby	AthleticsATH	26	19.2%	21.6%	19.3%	24.6	4.7	UNDER 4.5· 51%	high
Zac Thornton	San Francisco GiantsSF	11	19.5%	23.3%	20.3%	22.3	4.5	UNDER 4.5· 54%	med
Anthony Kay	Minnesota TwinsMIN	26	19.8%	22.1%	19.4%	22.2	4.4	UNDER 4.5· 56%	high
Framber Valdez	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	27	17.2%	22.2%	16.8%	24.6	4.2	OVER 3.5· 57%	high
Mason Adams ⚠	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	2	23.1%	21.7%	22.2%	19.0	4.2	—	low
Andrew Abbott	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	28	18.0%	21.6%	17.0%	23.2	4.0	OVER 3.5· 56%	high
Brandon Pfaadt	Houston AstrosHOU	15	16.6%	21.9%	16.6%	23.8	4.0	OVER 3.5· 54%	high
Jeffrey Springs	Seattle MarinersSEA	25	17.4%	24.0%	18.9%	21.9	4.0	OVER 3.5· 55%	high
Javier Assad	Miami MarlinsMIA	10	18.9%	21.3%	18.6%	20.7	3.8	OVER 3.5· 51%	med
Max Scherzer	Kansas City RoyalsKC	13	19.9%	20.6%	18.7%	19.1	3.7	UNDER 3.5· 51%	med
Seth Lugo	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	28	18.0%	19.3%	15.8%	23.6	3.7	UNDER 3.5· 50%	high
Ryan Gusto ⚠	Chicago CubsCHC	14	19.1%	21.5%	18.9%	18.6	3.6	—	low
Martín Pérez	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	22	17.7%	22.3%	17.4%	21.2	3.6	UNDER 3.5· 52%	high
Chris Bassitt	Boston Red SoxBOS	14	16.0%	21.5%	15.7%	22.8	3.6	UNDER 3.5· 52%	med
Ethan Pecko ⚠	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	3	18.9%	20.2%	17.4%	19.3	3.4	—	low

Hits Allowed

Hits we expect each starter to give up. Same idea as strikeouts, flipped — Proj H is the number, the Pick is the side against the nearest half-point line.

How we get the number

Hit% is how often a batter gets a hit off this pitcher over his own starts. Opp Hit% is how often that lineup gets a hit against this hand. Adj Hit% blends the two, then nudges for the ballpark — hit and run environments move together. Multiply by BF/St (batters faced in a typical start) and you get Proj H. Win chance is scored the same way as the other markets, against completed 2026 starts.

we like the OVERwe like the UNDERtoo close to callbright = strong pick, faded = slight edge+6% = our edge over the book's pricetap a row to star it

PitcherSP	Opp	St	Hit%	Opp Hit%	Adj Hit%	BF/St	Proj HH	Pick	Confidence
Matthew Liberatore	Colorado RockiesCOL	27	23.7%	21.85%	26.85%	21.8	5.92	OVER 5.5· 54%	med
Seth Lugo	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	28	23.88%	22.35%	24.59%	23.6	5.75	OVER 5.5· 51%	med
Chris Bassitt	Boston Red SoxBOS	14	23.75%	21.74%	24.29%	22.8	5.58	UNDER 5.5· 52%	med
George Kirby	AthleticsATH	26	24.32%	21.75%	22.93%	24.6	5.56	UNDER 5.5· 52%	med
Framber Valdez	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	27	22.48%	21.18%	21.6%	24.6	5.42	UNDER 5.5· 54%	med
Andrew Abbott	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	28	21.92%	21.54%	22.73%	23.2	5.34	UNDER 5.5· 56%	med
Sonny Gray	Baltimore OriolesBAL	25	22.12%	21.11%	21.97%	23.4	5.25	UNDER 5.5· 57%	med
Brandon Pfaadt	Houston AstrosHOU	15	21.53%	21.57%	21.41%	23.8	5.13	UNDER 5.5· 59%	med
Anthony Kay	Minnesota TwinsMIN	26	21.97%	21.5%	22.09%	22.2	4.99	OVER 4.5· 56%	med
Braxton Ashcraft	Los Angeles AngelsLAA	27	21.53%	21.36%	20.78%	23.9	4.96	OVER 4.5· 55%	med
Zack Wheeler	Atlanta BravesATL	23	20.5%	22.09%	21.31%	22.8	4.95	OVER 4.5· 55%	med
Taj Bradley	Chicago White SoxCWS	27	20.61%	21.25%	20.4%	24.2	4.94	OVER 4.5· 55%	med
Cade Cavalli	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	29	21.53%	22.16%	22.01%	22.1	4.91	OVER 4.5· 54%	med
Zac Thornton	San Francisco GiantsSF	11	22.12%	21.63%	21.26%	22.3	4.73	OVER 4.5· 51%	med
Parker Messick	Detroit TigersDET	27	20.19%	21.35%	19.56%	23.6	4.65	UNDER 4.5· 50%	med
Yusei Kikuchi	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	9	22.49%	21.59%	22.03%	21.3	4.65	UNDER 4.5· 50%	low
Jacob deGrom	Tampa Bay RaysTB	26	21.35%	22.55%	22.43%	21.6	4.64	UNDER 4.5· 51%	med
Mason Adams ⚠	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	2	21.64%	21.68%	24.24%	19.0	4.61	—	low
Drew Rasmussen	Texas RangersTEX	26	20.3%	21.38%	20.21%	22.1	4.49	UNDER 4.5· 53%	med
Robbie Ray	New York YankeesNYY	26	20.69%	21.66%	19.71%	23.0	4.48	UNDER 4.5· 54%	med
Dustin May	Cincinnati RedsCIN	26	22.27%	20.9%	22.33%	21.0	4.47	UNDER 4.5· 54%	med
Jeffrey Springs	Seattle MarinersSEA	25	23.03%	20.94%	21.0%	21.9	4.46	UNDER 4.5· 54%	med
Martín Pérez	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	22	20.72%	21.57%	21.11%	21.2	4.42	UNDER 4.5· 55%	med
Anthony Molina ⚠	New York MetsNYM	1	21.94%	21.45%	20.83%	21.0	4.37	—	low
Javier Assad	Miami MarlinsMIA	10	21.97%	21.99%	21.39%	20.7	4.37	UNDER 4.5· 56%	med
Max Scherzer	Kansas City RoyalsKC	13	21.59%	21.86%	21.76%	19.1	4.32	UNDER 4.5· 57%	med
Tyler Glasnow	Washington NationalsWSH	9	19.83%	21.62%	19.77%	21.3	4.1	UNDER 4.5· 61%	low
Ryan Gusto ⚠	Chicago CubsCHC	14	22.36%	21.61%	21.38%	18.6	4.07	—	low
Ethan Pecko ⚠	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	3	21.42%	21.06%	20.8%	19.3	4.02	—	low
Carlos Rodón	San Diego PadresSD	12	19.78%	21.56%	18.76%	20.6	3.78	OVER 3.5· 52%	med

OUT

Outs Recorded

How deep into the game we expect each starter to go, in outs (3 outs = 1 inning). Blank where his outings are too up-and-down to price.

How we get the number

IP/St is innings per start this year, and Base is that turned into outs with recent form weighted heavier. Matchup is the opponent nudge — how much traffic that lineup puts on and how many pitches it makes him throw. It is deliberately a small adjustment: team on-base splits this season are mostly random, so we lean on the pitcher's own workload rather than invent a matchup edge the data doesn't support.

we like the OVERwe like the UNDERtoo close to callbright = strong pick, faded = slight edge+6% = our edge over the book's pricetap a row to star it

PitcherSP	Opp	St	IP/St	Base	Matchup	Proj OutsOuts	Pick	Confidence
Braxton Ashcraft	Los Angeles AngelsLAA	27	5.94	18.4	×1.003 -0.3	18.2	UNDER 18.5· 51%	high
Brandon Pfaadt	Houston AstrosHOU	15	5.98	18.4	×1.002 -0.6	17.8	OVER 17.5· 56%	high
Parker Messick	Detroit TigersDET	27	5.96	18.2	×0.993 -0.5	17.5	OVER 17.5· 52%	high
George Kirby	AthleticsATH	26	5.87	17.0	×1.001 +0.1	17.1	UNDER 17.5· 53%	high
Framber Valdez	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	27	5.58	17.2	×0.997 -0.4	16.8	UNDER 17.5· 55%	high
Zac Thornton	San Francisco GiantsSF	11	5.57	16.6	×1.009 -0.1	16.6	OVER 16.5· 54%	med
Taj Bradley	Chicago White SoxCWS	27	5.71	17.0	×1.002 -0.6	16.5	OVER 16.5· 52%	high
Tyler Glasnow	Washington NationalsWSH	9	5.74	16.9	×1.007 -0.6	16.4	OVER 16.5· 51%	low
Seth Lugo	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	28	5.5	16.1	×1.016 +0.0	16.4	OVER 16.5· 51%	high
Drew Rasmussen	Texas RangersTEX	26	5.63	17.0	×1.008 -0.9	16.3	OVER 16.5· 50%	high
Sonny Gray	Baltimore OriolesBAL	25	5.75	17.5	×0.992 -1.1	16.2	UNDER 16.5· 52%	high
Robbie Ray	New York YankeesNYY	26	5.49	16.3	×0.997 -0.1	16.1	UNDER 16.5· 53%	high
Zack Wheeler	Atlanta BravesATL	23	5.67	16.5	×0.995 -0.4	15.9	UNDER 16.5· 54%	high
Chris Bassitt	Boston Red SoxBOS	14	4.95	15.1	×1.011 +0.4	15.7	OVER 15.5· 54%	med
Anthony Kay	Minnesota TwinsMIN	26	4.99	15.3	×1.002 +0.2	15.5	OVER 15.5· 52%	high
Andrew Abbott	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	28	5.3	15.9	×0.986 -0.1	15.5	OVER 15.5· 52%	high
Cade Cavalli	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	29	5.27	16.5	×0.976 -0.7	15.4	OVER 15.5· 51%	high
Jacob deGrom	Tampa Bay RaysTB	26	5.28	15.4	×1.000 -0.1	15.3	OVER 15.5· 50%	high
Matthew Liberatore	Colorado RockiesCOL	27	4.99	15.2	×1.009 -0.2	15.1	UNDER 15.5· 53%	high
Anthony Molina ⚠	New York MetsNYM	1	5.0	15.0	×1.006 -0.1	15.0	—	low
Yusei Kikuchi	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	9	4.78	14.5	×0.999 -0.1	14.4	OVER 14.5· 51%	low
Martín Pérez	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	22	5.08	14.9	×0.994 -0.5	14.4	OVER 14.5· 51%	high
Mason Adams ⚠	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	2	4.5	13.5	×1.008 +0.5	14.1	—	low
Max Scherzer	Kansas City RoyalsKC	13	4.38	13.9	×1.009 -0.1	14.0	UNDER 14.5· 53%	med
Dustin May	Cincinnati RedsCIN	26	4.95	13.9	×1.010 -0.2	13.9	UNDER 14.5· 53%	high
Javier Assad	Miami MarlinsMIA	10	5.2	15.4	×1.002 -1.5	13.9	UNDER 14.5· 57%	med
Jeffrey Springs	Seattle MarinersSEA	25	4.92	14.0	×1.000 -0.2	13.8	UNDER 14.5· 56%	high
Carlos Rodón	San Diego PadresSD	12	4.92	14.5	×0.999 -0.7	13.7	OVER 13.5· 55%	med
Ryan Gusto ⚠	Chicago CubsCHC	14	4.16	12.8	×0.976 +0.8	—	—	low
Ethan Pecko ⚠	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	3	4.33	13.0	×1.005 +0.3	—	—	low

Earned Runs

Runs we expect each starter to give up. Priced against a whole-run line (1.5 / 2.5 / 3.5). This is the noisiest of the three markets, so confidence never goes above med.

How we get the number

ER Rate is earned runs per batter faced across his starts, pulled toward the league average when he hasn't thrown much — a small sample shouldn't get treated like a full season. Opp× scales it by how well that lineup scores against this hand, Park× by the ballpark. Multiply through by batters faced and you get Proj ER. We price it as a count that can blow up — one bad inning is most of a bad night — rather than assuming runs trickle in evenly.

we like the OVERwe like the UNDERtoo close to callbright = strong pick, faded = slight edge+6% = our edge over the book's pricetap a row to star it

PitcherSP	Opp	St	ER Rate	Opp×	Park×	Proj ERER	Pick	Confidence
Matthew Liberatore	Colorado RockiesCOL	27	12.67%	×0.995	×1.12	3.11	UNDER 3.5· 63%	med
Seth Lugo	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	28	12.22%	×0.984	×1.00	2.81	UNDER 2.5· 51%	med
Andrew Abbott	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	28	11.11%	×0.996	×1.04	2.70	UNDER 2.5· 53%	med
Chris Bassitt	Boston Red SoxBOS	14	11.55%	×0.993	×1.02	2.69	UNDER 2.5· 54%	med
Jeffrey Springs	Seattle MarinersSEA	25	14.02%	×0.958	×0.94	2.68	UNDER 2.5· 54%	med
Framber Valdez	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	27	10.83%	×0.979	×0.98	2.61	UNDER 2.5· 55%	med
Max Scherzer	Kansas City RoyalsKC	13	12.90%	×1.000	×1.00	2.56	UNDER 2.5· 56%	med
George Kirby	AthleticsATH	26	10.89%	×1.007	×0.94	2.50	UNDER 2.5· 57%	med
Taj Bradley	Chicago White SoxCWS	27	10.20%	×0.998	×1.01	2.49	UNDER 2.5· 58%	med
Yusei Kikuchi	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	9	11.90%	×0.985	×0.98	2.43	UNDER 2.5· 59%	low
Anthony Kay	Minnesota TwinsMIN	26	10.63%	×0.995	×1.01	2.41	UNDER 2.5· 59%	med
Dustin May	Cincinnati RedsCIN	26	11.63%	×0.972	×1.04	2.35	UNDER 2.5· 61%	med
Jacob deGrom	Tampa Bay RaysTB	26	10.73%	×1.029	×1.01	2.30	UNDER 2.5· 62%	med
Zack Wheeler	Atlanta BravesATL	23	9.61%	×1.007	×1.02	2.29	UNDER 2.5· 62%	med
Braxton Ashcraft	Los Angeles AngelsLAA	27	10.08%	×0.963	×0.98	2.27	UNDER 2.5· 62%	med
Brandon Pfaadt	Houston AstrosHOU	15	9.15%	×1.000	×1.00	2.19	UNDER 2.5· 64%	med
Mason Adams ⚠	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	2	10.13%	×0.977	×1.12	2.11	—	low
Anthony Molina ⚠	New York MetsNYM	1	10.70%	×0.973	×0.96	2.10	—	low
Ethan Pecko ⚠	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	3	11.30%	×0.961	×1.00	2.10	—	low
Cade Cavalli	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	29	8.94%	×1.037	×1.00	2.07	UNDER 2.5· 67%	med
Sonny Gray	Baltimore OriolesBAL	25	8.58%	×0.989	×1.02	2.07	UNDER 2.5· 67%	med
Tyler Glasnow	Washington NationalsWSH	9	9.59%	×1.018	×1.00	2.02	UNDER 2.5· 68%	low
Robbie Ray	New York YankeesNYY	26	9.25%	×1.008	×0.95	2.01	UNDER 2.5· 68%	med
Drew Rasmussen	Texas RangersTEX	26	9.05%	×0.976	×1.01	1.98	OVER 1.5· 53%	med
Javier Assad	Miami MarlinsMIA	10	9.91%	×1.017	×0.96	1.98	OVER 1.5· 53%	med
Zac Thornton	San Francisco GiantsSF	11	9.38%	×0.980	×0.96	1.96	OVER 1.5· 52%	med
Martín Pérez	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	22	9.14%	×1.001	×1.02	1.95	OVER 1.5· 52%	med
Ryan Gusto ⚠	Chicago CubsCHC	14	10.02%	×1.038	×0.96	1.90	—	low
Parker Messick	Detroit TigersDET	27	8.00%	×0.991	×0.98	1.85	UNDER 1.5· 50%	med
Carlos Rodón	San Diego PadresSD	12	9.54%	×0.985	×0.95	1.80	UNDER 1.5· 52%	med

BAT

Batter Props

270 batters across 15 posted lineups, best chances first. 1+ Hit and 1+ RBI are the odds he gets at least one tonight. Lineups post 3–4 hours before first pitch, so late games may still be missing.

How we get the number

Hit% is how often this batter gets a hit against pitchers of this hand. Adj folds in how many hits tonight's starter actually gives up. PA is how many times he should come to the plate, from his spot in the order — and we split those trips between the starter and the bullpen using how deep we expect the starter to go, because the reliever he faces in the 8th is a different problem than the starter he faces in the 1st. RBI is priced to allow for bunching: a three-run homer is one plate appearance, not three.

we like the OVERwe like the UNDERtoo close to callbright = strong pick, faded = slight edge+6% = our edge over the book's pricetap a row to star it

Batter	Team	#	Opp SP	vs	Hit%	Adj	PA	1+ HitHit	1+ RBIRBI
Jeff McNeil	AthleticsATH	2	George Kirby	RHP	23.5%	25.7%	4.55	73%	36%
Jake McCarthy	Colorado RockiesCOL	1	Matthew Liberatore	LHP	23.3%	24.9%	4.65	72%	38%
Henry Bolte	AthleticsATH	1	George Kirby	RHP	22.6%	24.7%	4.65	72%	30%
Yandy Díaz	Tampa Bay RaysTB	1	Jacob deGrom	RHP	24.4%	23.5%	4.65	72%	35%
Brett Bateman	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	1	Seth Lugo	RHP	22.8%	24.5%	4.65	72%	32%
Mickey Gasper	Boston Red SoxBOS	2	Chris Bassitt	RHP	22.8%	24.4%	4.55	71%	35%
Freddie Freeman	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	2	Cade Cavalli	RHP	24.1%	23.4%	4.55	71%	36%
Blaze Alexander	Baltimore OriolesBAL	2	Sonny Gray	RHP	23.7%	23.6%	4.55	71%	34%
George Springer	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	2	Seth Lugo	RHP	22.6%	24.3%	4.55	71%	33%
Alec Burleson	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	3	Mason Adams	RHP	24.4%	23.8%	4.45	71%	38%
Randy Arozarena	Seattle MarinersSEA	1	Jeffrey Springs	LHP	22.7%	23.5%	4.65	70%	33%
Yordan Alvarez	Houston AstrosHOU	2	Brandon Pfaadt	RHP	24.0%	23.3%	4.55	70%	38%
Nathan Lukes	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	5	Seth Lugo	RHP	23.7%	25.5%	4.25	70%	32%
Jackson Chourio	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	1	Andrew Abbott	LHP	23.1%	22.8%	4.65	70%	34%
Jeremy Peña	Houston AstrosHOU	1	Brandon Pfaadt	RHP	23.4%	22.7%	4.65	70%	35%
Zack Gelof	AthleticsATH	3	George Kirby	RHP	22.3%	24.4%	4.45	70%	34%
Konnor Griffin	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	1	Yusei Kikuchi	LHP	22.6%	22.9%	4.65	70%	34%
Pete Crow-Armstrong	Chicago CubsCHC	1	Ryan Gusto	RHP	22.6%	22.8%	4.65	70%	37%
Angel Martínez	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	2	Framber Valdez	LHP	22.9%	23.2%	4.55	70%	35%
Roman Anthony	Boston Red SoxBOS	1	Chris Bassitt	RHP	21.8%	23.3%	4.65	70%	32%
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	3	Seth Lugo	RHP	22.5%	24.2%	4.45	70%	32%
Otto Lopez	Miami MarlinsMIA	4	Javier Assad	RHP	24.1%	23.9%	4.35	70%	30%
Tommy Edman	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	1	Cade Cavalli	RHP	23.0%	22.3%	4.65	70%	35%
Bobby Witt Jr.	Kansas City RoyalsKC	2	Max Scherzer	RHP	23.4%	22.7%	4.55	70%	32%

Extra Plays

The best outs and earned-run numbers on the board, same engine as the strikeout model. These sit outside the two-pick card above — they are newer markets for us, and we keep the opponent adjustment small on purpose, because this season's team splits are still mostly random.

Martín Pérez OVER 13.5 outs

vs Philadelphia Phillies · 14.9 base × 0.994 matchup → 14.4

64%fair odds -178

Taj Bradley OVER 15.5 outs

vs Chicago White Sox · 17.0 base × 1.002 matchup → 16.5

64%fair odds -178

Seth Lugo OVER 15.5 outs

vs Toronto Blue Jays · 16.1 base × 1.016 matchup → 16.4

63%fair odds -171

Robbie Ray UNDER 2.5 ER

vs New York Yankees · we project 2.01 earned runs

68%fair odds -212

Tyler Glasnow UNDER 2.5 ER

vs Washington Nationals · we project 2.02 earned runs

68%fair odds -210

Cade Cavalli UNDER 2.5 ER

vs Los Angeles Dodgers · we project 2.07 earned runs

67%fair odds -200

W-L

Track Record

Every pick we post gets graded the next day against the box score — wins, losses and all — see every one →

All picks 45-39 (54%) · parlay 1-6 · -5.13 units at $100 a card

9/8 7-59/7 7-59/6 9-39/5 3-99/4 5-79/3 6-69/2 8-4

Newest first. Past results do not predict future outcomes.

Every past card (8)

Our own projections · odds shown are fair value with no house cut — not sportsbook prices
Analysis only · not gambling advice · 21+
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