Today's Card

Sep 4 Prop Picks

Fri · Sep 4, 2026 16-game slate · 32 starters Strikeouts · outs · earned runs · batters

These are our numbers, not a sportsbook's. Every price on this page is a fair price — what the bet is worth with no house cut built in. A real book keeps a margin, so it will pay less than what you see here. Shop your own book's line before betting.

O+U

Tonight's Two

Our two biggest edges over the sportsbook's own price — one over, one under, from whichever market (strikeouts, outs, earned runs or hits) it shows up in. The line and the Mkt Edge are measured against a real book (bovada) wherever one has posted; where none has, we fall back to the nearest half-point line.

Tonight's Two fair odds +189 · 2.89×

Over
            Strikeouts
            Max Fried
            vs San Diego Padres
Our Proj5.1 Ks
Line4.5 Ks
Edge+0.6
Win %58%
Fair Odds-139

Under
            Strikeouts
            Janson Junk
            vs Chicago Cubs
Our Proj3.2 Ks
Line3.5 Ks
Edge-0.3
Win %60%
Fair Odds-147

$100 bet · fair odds

$288.78

if both picks hit

+$188.78 profit

Fair-odds payout, not a sportsbook payout. Each pick is priced at the chance we give it (-139 Fried × -147 Junk → +189 together, decimal 2.89). A real book takes its cut and will pay less than this.

PROPS EDGE · 2026-09-04 · our projection

Strikeouts

All 32 probable starters, most projected strikeouts first. Proj K is how many we expect him to get tonight; the Pick column is the side we'd take against the nearest half-point line, with our win chance beside it.

How we get the number

K% is how often the pitcher strikes a batter out over his own starts. Opp K% is how often that lineup strikes out against this hand. Adj K% blends the two — a strikeout pitcher facing a contact lineup lands between them, not at either extreme. Multiply that by BF/St (batters he faces in a typical start) and you get Proj K. Win chance comes from how far past the line the projection sits, scored against 2,130 completed 2026 starts, so it reflects how often we've actually been right by that margin — not a textbook curve.

we like the OVERwe like the UNDERtoo close to callbright = strong pick, faded = slight edge+6% = our edge over the book's pricetap a row to star it

PitcherSP	Opp	St	K%	Opp K%	Adj K%	BF/St	Proj KK	Pick	Confidence
Chris Sale	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	24	30.7%	22.3%	30.4%	24.0	7.4	UNDER 7.5· 55%	high
Cristopher Sánchez	Atlanta BravesATL	28	27.3%	21.3%	25.9%	25.9	6.6	UNDER 6.5· 52%	high
Blake Snell ⚠	Washington NationalsWSH	5	29.3%	23.6%	30.5%	21.8	6.6	—	low
Logan Gilbert	AthleticsATH	27	25.0%	21.5%	25.1%	23.6	5.9	OVER 5.5· 54%	high
Nolan McLean	San Francisco GiantsSF	27	24.7%	20.7%	23.7%	23.9	5.7	UNDER 5.5· 51%	high
Shota Imanaga	Miami MarlinsMIA	27	24.6%	23.1%	25.4%	22.8	5.7	UNDER 5.5· 51%	high
Jared Jones ⚠	Los Angeles AngelsLAA	16	25.2%	24.6%	28.3%	19.5	5.6	—	low
Shane Drohan	Cincinnati RedsCIN	16	23.1%	24.2%	24.5%	22.4	5.5	UNDER 5.5· 54%	high
Zebby Matthews	Chicago White SoxCWS	19	20.0%	23.3%	21.3%	24.6	5.3	UNDER 5.5· 57%	high
Shane Baz	Boston Red SoxBOS	27	21.5%	21.4%	21.1%	24.8	5.2	OVER 4.5· 57%	high
Foster Griffin	Detroit TigersDET	27	22.0%	23.0%	22.5%	23.3	5.1	OVER 4.5· 56%	high
Max Fried	San Diego PadresSD	16	24.6%	22.3%	24.8%	21.7	5.1	OVER 4.5· 58%	high
Ranger Suarez	Baltimore OriolesBAL	24	20.9%	25.2%	23.3%	21.5	5.0	OVER 4.5· 53%	high
Kade Morris ⚠	Seattle MarinersSEA	1	21.1%	22.7%	22.4%	22.0	4.9	—	low
Walker Buehler	New York YankeesNYY	27	19.7%	24.2%	22.3%	20.7	4.6	UNDER 4.5· 52%	high
Jackson Kent ⚠	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	4	20.7%	20.8%	19.0%	22.0	4.2	—	low
Logan Allen ⚠	Detroit TigersDET	1	21.4%	23.0%	21.8%	19.0	4.1	—	low
Andre Pallante	Colorado RockiesCOL	24	18.0%	21.8%	17.4%	23.5	4.1	OVER 3.5· 58%	high
Rhett Lowder	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	21	17.9%	21.7%	17.6%	22.2	4.0	OVER 3.5· 56%	high
Jameson Taillon ⚠	Kansas City RoyalsKC	17	21.1%	20.8%	20.1%	21.3	4.0	—	low
Nick Martinez	Texas RangersTEX	26	16.2%	22.1%	16.4%	23.8	3.9	OVER 3.5· 55%	high
Merrill Kelly	Houston AstrosHOU	25	16.2%	21.9%	16.2%	24.6	3.9	OVER 3.5· 55%	high
Ryan Johnson	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	14	17.3%	23.3%	18.5%	20.7	3.8	OVER 3.5· 51%	med
Erick Fedde	Minnesota TwinsMIN	13	19.3%	20.8%	18.3%	20.2	3.6	UNDER 3.5· 52%	med
Ryan Feltner	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	20	16.0%	21.6%	15.4%	21.8	3.5	UNDER 3.5· 54%	high
Cristian Javier ⚠	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	8	19.2%	20.2%	17.7%	18.5	3.4	—	low
Keider Montero	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	22	15.3%	21.1%	14.7%	22.6	3.3	UNDER 3.5· 57%	high
Janson Junk	Chicago CubsCHC	20	15.6%	21.5%	15.5%	21.6	3.2	UNDER 3.5· 60%	high
Matt Wilkinson ⚠	New York MetsNYM	3	18.3%	23.2%	18.9%	15.7	3.0	—	low
Daniel Lynch IV ⚠	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	5	19.3%	21.1%	18.0%	13.4	2.4	—	low
Andrew Sears ⚠	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	0	—%	—%	—%	—	—	—	low
Trevor Williams ⚠	Tampa Bay RaysTB	0	—%	—%	—%	—	—	—	low

Hits Allowed

Hits we expect each starter to give up. Same idea as strikeouts, flipped — Proj H is the number, the Pick is the side against the nearest half-point line.

How we get the number

Hit% is how often a batter gets a hit off this pitcher over his own starts. Opp Hit% is how often that lineup gets a hit against this hand. Adj Hit% blends the two, then nudges for the ballpark — hit and run environments move together. Multiply by BF/St (batters faced in a typical start) and you get Proj H. Win chance is scored the same way as the other markets, against completed 2026 starts.

we like the OVERwe like the UNDERtoo close to callbright = strong pick, faded = slight edge+6% = our edge over the book's pricetap a row to star it

PitcherSP	Opp	St	Hit%	Opp Hit%	Adj Hit%	BF/St	Proj HH	Pick	Confidence
Chris Sale	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	24	—%	—%	—%	24.0	—	—	low
Cristopher Sánchez	Atlanta BravesATL	28	—%	—%	—%	25.9	—	—	low
Blake Snell ⚠	Washington NationalsWSH	5	—%	—%	—%	21.8	—	—	low
Logan Gilbert	AthleticsATH	27	—%	—%	—%	23.6	—	—	low
Nolan McLean	San Francisco GiantsSF	27	—%	—%	—%	23.9	—	—	low
Shota Imanaga	Miami MarlinsMIA	27	—%	—%	—%	22.8	—	—	low
Jared Jones ⚠	Los Angeles AngelsLAA	16	—%	—%	—%	19.5	—	—	low
Shane Drohan	Cincinnati RedsCIN	16	—%	—%	—%	22.4	—	—	low
Zebby Matthews	Chicago White SoxCWS	19	—%	—%	—%	24.6	—	—	low
Shane Baz	Boston Red SoxBOS	27	—%	—%	—%	24.8	—	—	low
Foster Griffin	Detroit TigersDET	27	—%	—%	—%	23.3	—	—	low
Max Fried	San Diego PadresSD	16	—%	—%	—%	21.7	—	—	low
Ranger Suarez	Baltimore OriolesBAL	24	—%	—%	—%	21.5	—	—	low
Kade Morris ⚠	Seattle MarinersSEA	1	—%	—%	—%	22.0	—	—	low
Walker Buehler	New York YankeesNYY	27	—%	—%	—%	20.7	—	—	low
Jackson Kent ⚠	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	4	—%	—%	—%	22.0	—	—	low
Logan Allen ⚠	Detroit TigersDET	1	—%	—%	—%	19.0	—	—	low
Andre Pallante	Colorado RockiesCOL	24	—%	—%	—%	23.5	—	—	low
Rhett Lowder	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	21	—%	—%	—%	22.2	—	—	low
Jameson Taillon ⚠	Kansas City RoyalsKC	17	—%	—%	—%	21.3	—	—	low
Nick Martinez	Texas RangersTEX	26	—%	—%	—%	23.8	—	—	low
Merrill Kelly	Houston AstrosHOU	25	—%	—%	—%	24.6	—	—	low
Ryan Johnson	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	14	—%	—%	—%	20.7	—	—	low
Erick Fedde	Minnesota TwinsMIN	13	—%	—%	—%	20.2	—	—	low
Ryan Feltner	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	20	—%	—%	—%	21.8	—	—	low
Cristian Javier ⚠	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	8	—%	—%	—%	18.5	—	—	low
Keider Montero	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	22	—%	—%	—%	22.6	—	—	low
Janson Junk	Chicago CubsCHC	20	—%	—%	—%	21.6	—	—	low
Matt Wilkinson ⚠	New York MetsNYM	3	—%	—%	—%	15.7	—	—	low
Daniel Lynch IV ⚠	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	5	—%	—%	—%	13.4	—	—	low
Andrew Sears ⚠	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	0	—%	—%	—%	—	—	—	low
Trevor Williams ⚠	Tampa Bay RaysTB	0	—%	—%	—%	—	—	—	low

OUT

Outs Recorded

How deep into the game we expect each starter to go, in outs (3 outs = 1 inning). Blank where his outings are too up-and-down to price.

How we get the number

IP/St is innings per start this year, and Base is that turned into outs with recent form weighted heavier. Matchup is the opponent nudge — how much traffic that lineup puts on and how many pitches it makes him throw. It is deliberately a small adjustment: team on-base splits this season are mostly random, so we lean on the pitcher's own workload rather than invent a matchup edge the data doesn't support.

we like the OVERwe like the UNDERtoo close to callbright = strong pick, faded = slight edge+6% = our edge over the book's pricetap a row to star it

PitcherSP	Opp	St	IP/St	Base	Matchup	Proj OutsOuts	Pick	Confidence
Cristopher Sánchez	Atlanta BravesATL	28	6.26	18.7	×1.015 -0.4	18.6	OVER 18.5· 54%	high
Zebby Matthews	Chicago White SoxCWS	19	5.89	18.0	×1.001 -0.5	17.5	OVER 17.5· 52%	high
Nick Martinez	Texas RangersTEX	26	5.91	17.9	×1.007 -0.5	17.5	OVER 17.5· 52%	high
Shane Baz	Boston Red SoxBOS	27	5.81	17.4	×1.011 -0.2	17.4	OVER 17.5· 51%	high
Nolan McLean	San Francisco GiantsSF	27	5.77	17.5	×1.008 -0.4	17.2	UNDER 17.5· 52%	high
Chris Sale	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	24	6.0	18.5	×0.994 -1.3	17.1	UNDER 17.5· 53%	high
Logan Gilbert	AthleticsATH	27	5.94	17.5	×1.002 -0.3	17.1	UNDER 17.5· 54%	high
Merrill Kelly	Houston AstrosHOU	25	5.67	16.8	×1.002 -0.3	16.5	OVER 16.5· 52%	high
Keider Montero	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	22	5.67	17.1	×0.996 -0.6	16.4	OVER 16.5· 51%	high
Foster Griffin	Detroit TigersDET	27	5.71	16.5	×0.994 -0.4	16.0	UNDER 16.5· 55%	high
Andre Pallante	Colorado RockiesCOL	24	5.67	17.4	×1.011 -1.6	16.0	UNDER 16.5· 55%	high
Blake Snell ⚠	Washington NationalsWSH	5	5.2	15.6	×1.000 -0.3	15.3	—	low
Shota Imanaga	Miami MarlinsMIA	27	5.57	15.8	×1.002 -0.5	15.3	UNDER 15.5· 50%	high
Shane Drohan	Cincinnati RedsCIN	16	5.23	15.7	×0.986 -0.2	15.3	UNDER 15.5· 50%	high
Max Fried	San Diego PadresSD	16	5.62	16.0	×0.999 -0.7	15.3	OVER 15.5· 50%	high
Rhett Lowder	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	21	5.0	15.7	×0.972 +0.1	15.3	OVER 15.5· 50%	high
Walker Buehler	New York YankeesNYY	27	4.86	15.1	×0.993 +0.2	15.1	UNDER 15.5· 53%	high
Ryan Feltner	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	20	4.88	15.1	×1.009 -0.4	14.9	UNDER 15.5· 55%	high
Janson Junk	Chicago CubsCHC	20	5.1	14.9	×0.979 +0.3	14.9	UNDER 15.5· 56%	high
Ranger Suarez	Baltimore OriolesBAL	24	5.15	15.1	×0.992 -0.2	14.7	OVER 14.5· 54%	high
Erick Fedde	Minnesota TwinsMIN	13	4.82	14.3	×1.002 +0.1	14.4	OVER 14.5· 51%	med
Jackson Kent ⚠	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	4	4.83	14.5	×1.000 -0.2	14.3	—	low
Ryan Johnson	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	14	4.81	14.8	×0.981 -0.3	14.3	UNDER 14.5· 50%	med
Jared Jones ⚠	Los Angeles AngelsLAA	16	4.54	13.3	×1.002 +0.1	—	—	low
Kade Morris ⚠	Seattle MarinersSEA	1	4.0	12.0	×1.002 +0.5	—	—	low
Logan Allen ⚠	Detroit TigersDET	1	3.3	9.9	×0.994 +0.8	—	—	low
Jameson Taillon ⚠	Kansas City RoyalsKC	17	4.94	13.5	×1.008 -1.2	—	—	low
Cristian Javier ⚠	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	8	3.91	12.2	×1.005 -0.0	—	—	low
Matt Wilkinson ⚠	New York MetsNYM	3	3.9	11.7	×0.999 +0.1	—	—	low
Daniel Lynch IV ⚠	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	5	3.14	9.4	×1.007 +1.1	—	—	low
Andrew Sears ⚠	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	0	—	—	—	—	—	low
Trevor Williams ⚠	Tampa Bay RaysTB	0	—	—	—	—	—	low

Earned Runs

Runs we expect each starter to give up. Priced against a whole-run line (1.5 / 2.5 / 3.5). This is the noisiest of the three markets, so confidence never goes above med.

How we get the number

ER Rate is earned runs per batter faced across his starts, pulled toward the league average when he hasn't thrown much — a small sample shouldn't get treated like a full season. Opp× scales it by how well that lineup scores against this hand, Park× by the ballpark. Multiply through by batters faced and you get Proj ER. We price it as a count that can blow up — one bad inning is most of a bad night — rather than assuming runs trickle in evenly.

we like the OVERwe like the UNDERtoo close to callbright = strong pick, faded = slight edge+6% = our edge over the book's pricetap a row to star it

PitcherSP	Opp	St	ER Rate	Opp×	Park×	Proj ERER	Pick	Confidence
Ryan Feltner	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	20	13.92%	×0.973	×1.12	3.48	UNDER 3.5· 57%	med
Rhett Lowder	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	21	12.75%	×1.033	×1.04	3.14	UNDER 3.5· 63%	med
Merrill Kelly	Houston AstrosHOU	25	12.49%	×1.002	×1.00	3.04	UNDER 3.5· 65%	med
Zebby Matthews	Chicago White SoxCWS	19	11.78%	×0.998	×1.01	2.94	OVER 2.5· 51%	med
Kade Morris ⚠	Seattle MarinersSEA	1	14.28%	×0.992	×0.94	2.93	—	low
Andre Pallante	Colorado RockiesCOL	24	9.78%	×1.031	×1.12	2.66	UNDER 2.5· 55%	med
Jameson Taillon ⚠	Kansas City RoyalsKC	17	13.40%	×1.000	×1.00	2.66	—	low
Cristian Javier ⚠	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	8	14.61%	×0.962	×1.00	2.66	—	low
Shane Drohan	Cincinnati RedsCIN	16	11.15%	×1.009	×1.04	2.64	UNDER 2.5· 55%	med
Shane Baz	Boston Red SoxBOS	27	10.47%	×0.996	×1.02	2.60	UNDER 2.5· 56%	med
Jackson Kent ⚠	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	4	11.64%	×1.016	×1.00	2.60	—	low
Ryan Johnson	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	14	11.75%	×1.039	×0.98	2.49	UNDER 2.5· 58%	med
Walker Buehler	New York YankeesNYY	27	11.80%	×0.994	×0.95	2.31	UNDER 2.5· 62%	med
Shota Imanaga	Miami MarlinsMIA	27	10.80%	×0.991	×0.96	2.30	UNDER 2.5· 62%	med
Erick Fedde	Minnesota TwinsMIN	13	11.07%	×1.018	×1.01	2.26	UNDER 2.5· 63%	med
Jared Jones ⚠	Los Angeles AngelsLAA	16	11.84%	×0.964	×0.98	2.23	—	low
Janson Junk	Chicago CubsCHC	20	10.78%	×1.034	×0.96	2.23	UNDER 2.5· 64%	med
Ranger Suarez	Baltimore OriolesBAL	24	9.88%	×1.003	×1.02	2.17	UNDER 2.5· 65%	med
Logan Gilbert	AthleticsATH	27	9.75%	×1.003	×0.94	2.16	UNDER 2.5· 65%	med
Nick Martinez	Texas RangersTEX	26	8.71%	×0.980	×1.01	2.06	UNDER 2.5· 67%	med
Keider Montero	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	22	9.54%	×0.974	×0.98	2.06	UNDER 2.5· 67%	med
Nolan McLean	San Francisco GiantsSF	27	8.67%	×1.006	×0.96	2.01	UNDER 2.5· 68%	med
Foster Griffin	Detroit TigersDET	27	9.08%	×0.988	×0.98	2.00	OVER 1.5· 52%	med
Blake Snell ⚠	Washington NationalsWSH	5	8.82%	×1.036	×1.00	1.99	—	low
Logan Allen ⚠	Detroit TigersDET	1	10.51%	×0.988	×0.98	1.93	—	low
Cristopher Sánchez	Atlanta BravesATL	28	7.41%	×0.996	×1.02	1.92	OVER 1.5· 50%	med
Max Fried	San Diego PadresSD	16	8.82%	×0.989	×0.95	1.71	UNDER 1.5· 55%	med
Chris Sale	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	24	6.74%	×0.999	×1.02	1.67	UNDER 1.5· 56%	med
Matt Wilkinson ⚠	New York MetsNYM	3	11.03%	×0.991	×0.96	1.64	—	low
Daniel Lynch IV ⚠	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	5	12.29%	×0.970	×1.00	1.60	—	low
Andrew Sears ⚠	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	0	—	—	—	—	—	low
Trevor Williams ⚠	Tampa Bay RaysTB	0	—	—	—	—	—	low

Extra Plays

The best outs and earned-run numbers on the board, same engine as the strikeout model. These sit outside the two-pick card above — they are newer markets for us, and we keep the opponent adjustment small on purpose, because this season's team splits are still mostly random.

Keider Montero OVER 15.5 outs

vs Cleveland Guardians · 17.1 base × 0.996 matchup → 16.4

65%fair odds -186

Erick Fedde OVER 13.5 outs

vs Minnesota Twins · 14.3 base × 1.002 matchup → 14.4

64%fair odds -178

Merrill Kelly OVER 15.5 outs

vs Houston Astros · 16.8 base × 1.002 matchup → 16.5

64%fair odds -176

Nolan McLean UNDER 2.5 ER

vs San Francisco Giants · we project 2.01 earned runs

68%fair odds -213

Nick Martinez UNDER 2.5 ER

vs Texas Rangers · we project 2.06 earned runs

67%fair odds -203

Keider Montero UNDER 2.5 ER

vs Cleveland Guardians · we project 2.06 earned runs

67%fair odds -203

W-L

Track Record

Every pick we post gets graded the next day against the box score — wins, losses and all — see every one →

All picks 45-39 (54%) · parlay 1-6 · -5.13 units at $100 a card

9/8 7-59/7 7-59/6 9-39/5 3-99/4 5-79/3 6-69/2 8-4

Newest first. Past results do not predict future outcomes.

Every past card (8)

Our own projections · odds shown are fair value with no house cut — not sportsbook prices
Analysis only · not gambling advice · 21+
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