Tonight's Card

Sep 17 Prop Picks

Thu · Sep 17, 2026 9-game slate · 17 starters Strikeouts · outs · earned runs · batters

Live record · since Sep 2 · 16 slates

130-81Picks graded

62%Hit rate

-9.1uUnits · $100/card

3-13Parlay record

Fair prices, not sportsbook prices. No house cut is built in, so your book will pay a little less — shop your own line before betting.

O+U

Tonight's Two

Our two biggest edges over the sportsbook's own price — one over, one under, from whichever market (strikeouts, outs, earned runs or hits) it shows up in. The line and the Mkt Edge are measured against a real book (pinnacle+bovada) wherever one has posted; where none has, we fall back to the nearest half-point line.

Tonight's Two fair odds +142 · 2.42×

Over Strikeouts Justin Wrobleski vs Cincinnati Reds

Our Proj5.4 Ks

PINNACLE3.5 Ks

Mkt Edge+7%

Win %65%

Fair Odds-184

Under Hits Michael King vs Colorado Rockies

Our Proj5.42 hits

PINNACLE6.5 hits

Mkt Edge+7%

Win %64%

Fair Odds-177

$100 bet · fair odds

$241.61

if both picks hit

+$141.61 profit

Fair-odds payout, not a sportsbook payout. Each pick is priced at the chance we give it (-184 Wrobleski × -177 King → +142 together, decimal 2.42). A real book takes its cut and will pay less than this.

PROPS EDGE · 2026-09-17 · our projection

On the Record

These 14 calls are the record. Everything else on this page is projection and context — useful for finding your own angle, but not scored. Tomorrow morning each row below is graded against the box score and the running track record moves by exactly these results, win or lose. Nothing is added afterwards and nothing quietly drops out.

Player	Source	Market	Pick	Line	Win %
Justin Wrobleski	Tonight's Two	K	Over	3.5	65%
Michael King	Tonight's Two	HITS	Under	6.5	64%
Nolan McLean	Extra play	HITS	Under	5.5	63%
Kyle Harrison	Extra play	K	Over	4.5	63%
Walbert Ureña	Extra play	ER	Under	2.5	68%
Brady Singer	Extra play	OUTS	Over	14.5	60%
Aaron Nola	Outs lean	OUTS	Over	15.5	66%
Erick Fedde	Outs lean	OUTS	Over	12.5	64%
Sonny Gray	Outs lean	OUTS	Over	16.5	62%
Kyle Harrison	ER lean	ER	Under	2.5	68%
Nolan McLean	ER lean	ER	Under	2.5	66%
Fernando Tatis Jr.	Batter	HIT	1+ Hit		76%
Jeremy Peña	Batter	HIT	1+ Hit		75%
Yordan Alvarez	Batter	HIT	1+ Hit		75%

OVERUNDERtoo closehighest-confidence pick+6% edge over the booktap a row to star it

Strikeouts

All 17 probable starters, most projected strikeouts first — Proj K is tonight's number, Pick is the side against the nearest half-point line.

PitcherSP	Opp	St	K%	Opp K%	Proj KK	Pick	Confidence
Taj Bradley	Los Angeles AngelsLAA	29	27.6%	25.0%	7.5	OVER 6.5· 62% +7%	high
Nolan McLean	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	29	24.5%	21.9%	6.1	OVER 5.5· 53% +7%	high
Kyle Harrison	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	23	25.8%	25.0%	6.0	OVER 4.5· 63% +7%	high
Drew Rasmussen	AthleticsATH	28	24.5%	21.7%	5.5	UNDER 5.5· 51% +7%	high
Aaron Nola	New York MetsNYM	30	23.3%	21.9%	5.5	UNDER 5.5· 54% -6%	high
Sonny Gray	Texas RangersTEX	27	22.3%	22.3%	5.5	UNDER 5.5· 54% +2%	high
Justin Wrobleski	Cincinnati RedsCIN	21	21.3%	24.3%	5.4	OVER 3.5· 65% +7%	high
Walbert Ureña	Minnesota TwinsMIN	25	22.9%	20.7%	5.0	OVER 4.5· 56%	high
Michael King	Colorado RockiesCOL	30	20.6%	21.9%	4.8	OVER 4.5· 52% +7%	high
Framber Valdez	Chicago White SoxCWS	29	16.8%	24.3%	4.5	UNDER 4.5· 54% +2%	high
Brady Singer	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	29	18.5%	20.8%	4.2	UNDER 4.5· 59% -0%	high
Seth Lugo	Houston AstrosHOU	30	17.9%	21.9%	4.2	UNDER 4.5· 59% +2%	high
Tanner Gordon	San Diego PadresSD	10	18.0%	21.5%	3.9	OVER 3.5· 53% +3%	med
Erick Fedde	Detroit TigersDET	14	19.1%	22.5%	3.9	OVER 3.5· 51% +7%	med
Jeffrey Springs	Tampa Bay RaysTB	27	17.9%	18.7%	3.3	UNDER 3.5· 57% +1%	high
Wilber Dotel ⚠	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	1	21.1%	21.8%	2.1	—	low
Tyler Alexander ⚠	Boston Red SoxBOS	4	23.2%	21.7%	1.0	—	low

Hits Allowed

Hits we expect each starter to give up — Proj H is the number, the Pick is the side against the nearest half-point line.

PitcherSP	Opp	St	Hit%	Opp Hit%	Proj HH	Pick	Confidence
Tanner Gordon	San Diego PadresSD	10	26.4%	21.46%	6.6	UNDER 6.5· 51% -3%	med
Brady Singer	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	29	24.25%	22.17%	6.17	OVER 5.5· 52% +7%	med
Seth Lugo	Houston AstrosHOU	30	24.95%	21.62%	5.82	OVER 5.5· 52% +3%	med
Framber Valdez	Chicago White SoxCWS	29	22.58%	21.65%	5.61	UNDER 5.5· 51% -0%	med
Justin Wrobleski	Cincinnati RedsCIN	21	22.13%	21.81%	5.46	OVER 3.5· 57% +7%	med
Michael King	Colorado RockiesCOL	30	19.74%	22.14%	5.42	UNDER 6.5· 64% +7%	med
Aaron Nola	New York MetsNYM	30	23.44%	21.73%	5.27	UNDER 5.5· 57% +3%	med
Sonny Gray	Texas RangersTEX	27	22.06%	21.43%	5.27	OVER 4.5· 61% +3%	med
Jeffrey Springs	Tampa Bay RaysTB	27	23.27%	21.93%	5.06	UNDER 5.5· 56% +7%	med
Taj Bradley	Los Angeles AngelsLAA	29	19.92%	21.32%	4.7	OVER 4.5· 51% +1%	med
Kyle Harrison	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	23	22.54%	21.86%	4.69	OVER 4.5· 50%	med
Nolan McLean	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	29	19.54%	21.71%	4.56	UNDER 5.5· 63% +7%	med
Walbert Ureña	Minnesota TwinsMIN	25	18.74%	21.98%	4.41	UNDER 4.5· 55%	med
Drew Rasmussen	AthleticsATH	28	19.96%	21.7%	4.39	UNDER 4.5· 55% +3%	med
Erick Fedde	Detroit TigersDET	14	21.49%	21.65%	4.24	UNDER 4.5· 56% +7%	med
Wilber Dotel ⚠	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	1	22.48%	22.38%	2.26	—	low
Tyler Alexander ⚠	Boston Red SoxBOS	4	21.12%	21.87%	0.96	—	low

OUT

Outs Recorded

How deep into the game we expect each starter to go, in outs (3 outs = 1 inning). Blank where his outings are too up-and-down to price.

PitcherSP	Opp	St	IP/St	Proj OutsOuts	Pick	Confidence
Michael King	Colorado RockiesCOL	30	5.83	17.8	OVER 17.5· 56% +5%	high
Sonny Gray	Texas RangersTEX	27	5.8	17.4	OVER 17.5· 51% -5%	high
Nolan McLean	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	29	5.75	17.2	UNDER 17.5· 52% -1%	high
Drew Rasmussen	AthleticsATH	28	5.73	17.2	UNDER 17.5· 46% +7%	high
Framber Valdez	Chicago White SoxCWS	29	5.64	17.0	UNDER 17.5· 53% +0%	high
Taj Bradley	Los Angeles AngelsLAA	29	5.7	16.7	UNDER 17.5· 50% +7%	high
Walbert Ureña	Minnesota TwinsMIN	25	5.43	16.7	OVER 16.5· 54%	high
Aaron Nola	New York MetsNYM	30	5.38	16.5	OVER 16.5· 52% +1%	high
Tanner Gordon	San Diego PadresSD	10	4.9	15.7	OVER 15.5· 48% +7%	med
Seth Lugo	Houston AstrosHOU	30	5.47	15.6	UNDER 16.5· 58% +7%	high
Jeffrey Springs	Tampa Bay RaysTB	27	5.0	15.4	OVER 14.5· 61% +0%	high
Brady Singer	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	29	5.2	15.3	OVER 14.5· 60% +3%	high
Justin Wrobleski	Cincinnati RedsCIN	21	5.97	14.8	OVER 11.5· 57% +7%	high
Erick Fedde	Detroit TigersDET	14	4.84	13.4	UNDER 14.5· 51% +7%	med
Kyle Harrison	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	23	4.81	12.8	UNDER 14.5· 59% +7%	high
Wilber Dotel ⚠	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	1	2.0	—	—	low
Tyler Alexander ⚠	Boston Red SoxBOS	4	1.25	—	—	low

Earned Runs

Runs we expect each starter to give up. Priced against a whole-run line (1.5 / 2.5 / 3.5). This is the noisiest of the three markets, so confidence never goes above med.

PitcherSP	Opp	St	Proj ERER	Pick	Confidence
Brady Singer	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	29	3.23	OVER 2.5· 57% +0%	med
Tanner Gordon	San Diego PadresSD	10	3.09	UNDER 3.5· 64% +6%	med
Jeffrey Springs	Tampa Bay RaysTB	27	2.90	OVER 2.5· 51% -6%	med
Seth Lugo	Houston AstrosHOU	30	2.86	UNDER 2.5· 50% +4%	med
Framber Valdez	Chicago White SoxCWS	29	2.61	UNDER 2.5· 55% +5%	med
Aaron Nola	New York MetsNYM	30	2.60	UNDER 2.5· 55% +7%	med
Justin Wrobleski	Cincinnati RedsCIN	21	2.52	OVER 1.5· 57% +7%	med
Michael King	Colorado RockiesCOL	30	2.46	UNDER 2.5· 53% +7%	med
Taj Bradley	Los Angeles AngelsLAA	29	2.34	UNDER 2.5· 61% +3%	med
Nolan McLean	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	29	2.09	UNDER 2.5· 65% +7%	med
Erick Fedde	Detroit TigersDET	14	2.09	UNDER 2.5· 62% +7%	med
Walbert Ureña	Minnesota TwinsMIN	25	2.02	UNDER 2.5· 68%	med
Kyle Harrison	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	23	2.01	UNDER 2.5· 68%	med
Sonny Gray	Texas RangersTEX	27	1.97	UNDER 2.5· 64% +7%	med
Drew Rasmussen	AthleticsATH	28	1.90	OVER 1.5· 51% +2%	med
Wilber Dotel ⚠	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	1	1.14	—	low
Tyler Alexander ⚠	Boston Red SoxBOS	4	0.46	—	low

BAT

Batter Props

117 batters across 8 posted lineups, best chances first. 1+ Hit and 1+ RBI are the odds he gets at least one tonight. The three marked PICK are our strongest 1+ Hit calls and are graded into the track record. Lineups post 3–4 hours before first pitch, so late games may still be missing.

Batter	Team	#	Opp SP	vs	Hit%	1+ HitHit	1+ RBIRBI
PICK Fernando Tatis Jr.	San Diego PadresSD	1	Tanner Gordon	RHP	24.1%	76%	35%
PICK Jeremy Peña	Houston AstrosHOU	1	Seth Lugo	RHP	24.3%	75%	35%
PICK Yordan Alvarez	Houston AstrosHOU	2	Seth Lugo	RHP	24.5%	75%	38%
Ty France	San Diego PadresSD	4	Tanner Gordon	RHP	24.4%	74%	36%
Dustin Harris	San Diego PadresSD	2	Tanner Gordon	RHP	23.2%	74%	34%
Chase Meidroth	Chicago White SoxCWS	1	Framber Valdez	LHP	24.7%	73%	34%
Elly De La Cruz	Cincinnati RedsCIN	2	Justin Wrobleski	LHP	25.2%	73%	38%
Yandy Díaz	Tampa Bay RaysTB	1	Jeffrey Springs	LHP	23.6%	72%	37%
Randal Grichuk	Chicago White SoxCWS	4	Framber Valdez	LHP	25.4%	72%	34%
Konnor Griffin	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	1	Kyle Harrison	LHP	23.9%	72%	35%
Yainer Diaz	Houston AstrosHOU	5	Seth Lugo	RHP	24.3%	72%	33%
Oneil Cruz	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	2	Kyle Harrison	LHP	24.3%	72%	36%
Tommy Edman	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	1	Brady Singer	RHP	22.7%	72%	33%
Jac Caglianone	Kansas City RoyalsKC	3	Miguel Ullola	RHP	24.6%	71%	36%
Enrique Hernández	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	2	Brady Singer	RHP	23.0%	71%	35%
Brice Turang	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	1	Wilber Dotel	RHP	23.5%	71%	40%
Bobby Witt Jr.	Kansas City RoyalsKC	2	Miguel Ullola	RHP	23.7%	71%	32%
Jackson Chourio	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	3	Wilber Dotel	RHP	24.1%	71%	36%
Ezequiel Duran	Texas RangersTEX	1	Sonny Gray	RHP	23.3%	70%	38%
Josh Jung	Texas RangersTEX	3	Sonny Gray	RHP	24.0%	70%	32%
Bryan Reynolds	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	3	Kyle Harrison	LHP	23.7%	70%	36%
Jackson Merrill	San Diego PadresSD	5	Tanner Gordon	RHP	22.3%	70%	33%
Luis Arraez	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	4	Nolan McLean	RHP	26.0%	70%	31%
Jake McCarthy	Colorado RockiesCOL	1	Michael King	RHP	24.5%	70%	36%

★

Milestone Watch

Players closing in on a season or career mark. Anyone playing tonight is flagged first; lineups post a few hours before first pitch.

Reached since the last card: Elly De La Cruz 150 hits · Trea Turner 20 SB · Nick Martinez 15 wins · Randy Arozarena 150 hits · Cedric Mullins 20 SB · Jake McCarthy 30 SB · Drew Rasmussen 15 wins

Player	Team	Milestone	Has	NeedsNeed
TONIGHT Bryan Reynolds	PITPIT	150 hits	149	1
TONIGHT Jackson Merrill	SDSD	150 hits	149	1
TONIGHT Yandy Díaz	TBTB	175 hits	173	2
TONIGHT Brice Turang	MILMIL	20 HR	19	1
TONIGHT Brice Turang	MILMIL	20 SB	19	1
TONIGHT Jeremy Peña	HOUHOU	20 HR	19	1
TONIGHT Miguel Vargas	CWSCWS	20 SB	19	1
TONIGHT Oneil Cruz	PITPIT	20 HR	19	1
TONIGHT Salvador Perez	KCKC	20 HR	19	1
TONIGHT Trea Turner	PHIPHI	20 HR	19	1
TONIGHT Yordan Alvarez	HOUHOU	40 HR	39	1
TONIGHT Brandon Nimmo	TEXTEX	150 hits	147	3
TONIGHT Miguel Vargas	CWSCWS	100 runs	98	2
TONIGHT Yordan Alvarez	HOUHOU	100 RBI	98	2
TONIGHT Chase Meidroth	CWSCWS	150 hits	146	4
TONIGHT Manny Machado	SDSD	400th career home run	397	3
TONIGHT Brice Turang	MILMIL	150 hits	145	5
TONIGHT Bryce Harper	PHIPHI	150 hits	145	5
TONIGHT Fernando Tatis Jr.	SDSD	175 hits	170	5
TONIGHT Trea Turner	PHIPHI	150 hits	145	5
TONIGHT Bobby Witt Jr.	KCKC	20 HR	18	2
TONIGHT Bryce Harper	PHIPHI	30 HR	28	2
TONIGHT Corey Seager	TEXTEX	20 HR	18	2
TONIGHT Elly De La Cruz	CINCIN	30 HR	28	2
TONIGHT Liam Hicks	TBTB	20 HR	18	2
TONIGHT Manny Machado	SDSD	30 HR	28	2
TONIGHT Matt McLain	CINCIN	20 SB	18	2
TONIGHT Max Muncy	LADLAD	30 HR	28	2
TONIGHT Zack Gelof	ATHATH	20 HR	18	2
TONIGHT Bobby Witt Jr.	KCKC	150 hits	144	6
TONIGHT Brandon Lowe	PITPIT	150 hits	144	6
TONIGHT Chandler Simpson	TBTB	175 hits	169	6
TONIGHT Brice Turang	MILMIL	100 runs	96	4
TONIGHT Junior Caminero	TBTB	100 RBI	96	4
TONIGHT Trea Turner	PHIPHI	100 runs	96	4
TONIGHT Yordan Alvarez	HOUHOU	100 runs	96	4
TONIGHT Taj Bradley	MINMIN	200 K	190	10 proj 7.5 K
TONIGHT Brandon Marsh	PHIPHI	20 HR	17	3
TONIGHT Bryan Reynolds	PITPIT	20 HR	17	3
TONIGHT Ezequiel Duran	TEXTEX	20 HR	17	3
TONIGHT Jackson Chourio	MILMIL	20 SB	17	3
TONIGHT Kyle Schwarber	PHIPHI	100 RBI	95	5
TONIGHT Lawrence Butler	ATHATH	20 HR	17	3
TONIGHT Luisangel Acuña	CWSCWS	20 SB	17	3
TONIGHT Oneil Cruz	PITPIT	30 SB	27	3
TONIGHT Wyatt Langford	TEXTEX	20 HR	17	3
Zack Wheeler	PHIPHI	2,000th career strikeout	1,997	3
Eugenio Suárez	CINCIN	350th career home run	349	1
Kenley Jansen	DETDET	500th career save	496	4
Francisco Lindor	NYMNYM	300th career home run	299	1
Blake Snell	LADLAD	1,500th career strikeout	1,492	8
Carlos Rodón	NYYNYY	1,500th career strikeout	1,492	8
CJ Abrams	WSHWSH	30-30 season	30 HR / 29 SB	1 SB
José Ramírez	CLECLE	300th career home run	296	4
Jesús Luzardo	PHIPHI	1,000th career strikeout	996	4
Steven Matz	TBTB	1,000th career strikeout	996	4
Pete Crow-Armstrong	CHCCHC	40-40 season	44 HR / 37 SB	3 SB
Kris Bubic	LADLAD	500th career strikeout	497	3
Christian Walker	HOUHOU	200th career home run	199	1
Rhys Hoskins	CLECLE	200th career home run	199	1
Willson Contreras	BOSBOS	200th career home run	199	1
Carlos Estévez	KCKC	500th career strikeout	494	6
Carlos Rodón	NYYNYY	100th career win	99	1
JP Sears	SDSD	500th career strikeout	491	9
Mookie Betts	LADLAD	200th career stolen base	198	2
Gregory Soto	PITPIT	500th career strikeout	484	16

Extra Plays

The best outs and earned-run numbers on the board, same engine as the strikeout model. These sit outside the two-pick card above — they are newer markets for us, and we keep the opponent adjustment small on purpose, because this season's team splits are still mostly random.

Aaron Nola OVER 15.5 outs

vs New York Mets · 16.9 base × 1.003 matchup → 16.5

66%fair odds -192

Erick Fedde OVER 12.5 outs

vs Detroit Tigers · 14.3 base × 0.999 matchup → 13.4

64%fair odds -180

Sonny Gray OVER 16.5 outs

vs Texas Rangers · 17.8 base × 1.009 matchup → 17.4

62%fair odds -165

Kyle Harrison UNDER 2.5 ER

vs Pittsburgh Pirates · we project 2.01 earned runs

68%fair odds -212

Walbert Ureña UNDER 2.5 ER

vs Minnesota Twins · we project 2.02 earned runs

68%fair odds -210

Nolan McLean UNDER 2.5 ER

vs Philadelphia Phillies · we project 2.09 earned runs

66%fair odds -196

W-L

Track Record

Every pick we post gets graded the next day against the box score — wins, losses and all — see every one →

All picks 130-81 (62%) · parlay 3-13 · -9.07 units at $100 a card

9/17 8-69/16 7-89/15 9-59/14 11-39/13 9-59/12 8-59/11 11-39/10 8-5

Newest first. Past results do not predict future outcomes.

Every past card (16)

Our own projections · odds shown are fair value with no house cut — not sportsbook prices
Analysis only · not gambling advice · 21+
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