Today's Card

Sep 8 Prop Picks

Tue · Sep 8, 2026 15-game slate · 29 starters Strikeouts · outs · earned runs · batters

These are our numbers, not a sportsbook's. Every price on this page is a fair price — what the bet is worth with no house cut built in. A real book keeps a margin, so it will pay less than what you see here. Shop your own book's line before betting.

O+U

Tonight's Two

Our two biggest edges over the sportsbook's own price — one over, one under, from whichever market (strikeouts, outs, earned runs or hits) it shows up in. The line and the Mkt Edge are measured against a real book (pinnacle+bovada) wherever one has posted; where none has, we fall back to the nearest half-point line.

Tonight's Two fair odds +152 · 2.52×

Under
            Strikeouts
            Jacob Misiorowski
            vs Chicago Cubs
Our Proj7.7 Ks
PINNACLE8.5 Ks
Mkt Edge+7%
Win %63%
Fair Odds-173
own 34.7% K rate × Chicago Cubs 21.4% vs RHP → adjusted 34.1%

Under
            Strikeouts
            Tanner Bibee
            vs Baltimore Orioles
Our Proj4.9 Ks
PINNACLE5.5 Ks
Mkt Edge+5%
Win %63%
Fair Odds-168
own 19.1% K rate × Baltimore Orioles 23.5% vs RHP → adjusted 20.6%

$100 bet · fair odds

$251.76

if both picks hit

+$151.76 profit

Fair-odds payout, not a sportsbook payout. Each pick is priced at the chance we give it (-173 Misiorowski × -168 Bibee → +152 together, decimal 2.52). A real book takes its cut and will pay less than this.

PROPS EDGE · 2026-09-08 · our projection

Strikeouts

All 29 probable starters, most projected strikeouts first. Proj K is how many we expect him to get tonight; the Pick column is the side we'd take against the nearest half-point line, with our win chance beside it.

How we get the number

K% is how often the pitcher strikes a batter out over his own starts. Opp K% is how often that lineup strikes out against this hand. Adj K% blends the two — a strikeout pitcher facing a contact lineup lands between them, not at either extreme. Multiply that by BF/St (batters he faces in a typical start) and you get Proj K. Win chance comes from how far past the line the projection sits, scored against 2,130 completed 2026 starts, so it reflects how often we've actually been right by that margin — not a textbook curve.

we like the OVERwe like the UNDERtoo close to callbright = strong pick, faded = slight edge+6% = our edge over the book's pricetap a row to star it

PitcherSP	Opp	St	K%	Opp K%	Adj K%	BF/St	Proj KK	Pick	Confidence
Jacob Misiorowski	Chicago CubsCHC	26	34.7%	21.4%	34.1%	22.8	7.7	UNDER 8.5· 63% +7%	high
Tarik Skubal	Cincinnati RedsCIN	22	29.6%	24.3%	31.6%	23.7	7.6	UNDER 8.5· 59% +7%	high
Cam Schlittler	Colorado RockiesCOL	29	30.5%	21.8%	30.5%	23.3	7.2	UNDER 7.5· 54% +7%	high
Reid Detmers	Boston Red SoxBOS	28	27.2%	21.5%	25.4%	23.2	6.0	OVER 5.5· 53% +0%	high
Sean Burke	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	24	24.4%	23.3%	26.0%	22.6	5.8	UNDER 6.5· 60% +7%	high
Sean Manaea	Miami MarlinsMIA	15	20.9%	23.1%	21.6%	24.7	5.5	UNDER 5.5· 54% -4%	high
Dean Kremer	Detroit TigersDET	13	23.4%	22.7%	24.5%	21.5	5.3	OVER 4.5· 55% +7%	med
Patrick Sandoval	Los Angeles AngelsLAA	10	22.0%	24.4%	23.2%	22.7	5.3	UNDER 5.5· 52% +7%	med
Cal Quantrill	Seattle MarinersSEA	12	22.3%	22.6%	23.5%	20.9	5.1	OVER 4.5· 56%	med
José Soriano	AthleticsATH	28	21.6%	21.7%	21.6%	23.4	5.1	OVER 4.5· 55%	high
Quinn Mathews ⚠	San Francisco GiantsSF	5	21.8%	23.3%	22.9%	22.4	5.1	—	low
Freddy Peralta	Atlanta BravesATL	28	21.7%	22.2%	22.0%	23.0	5.0	OVER 4.5· 55% +4%	high
Michael Wacha	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	28	21.2%	20.3%	19.6%	25.4	5.0	OVER 4.5· 48% +7%	high
Tanner Bibee	Baltimore OriolesBAL	29	19.1%	23.5%	20.6%	23.6	4.9	UNDER 5.5· 63% +5%	high
Hayden Wesneski ⚠	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	7	21.6%	22.0%	21.7%	22.6	4.9	—	low
Bubba Chandler	Chicago White SoxCWS	26	20.5%	23.3%	21.9%	22.0	4.8	OVER 4.5· 51% +5%	high
Jack Perkins ⚠	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	13	24.4%	19.3%	21.8%	21.5	4.7	—	low
Landen Roupp	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	27	20.6%	21.7%	20.8%	22.7	4.7	UNDER 4.5· 48% +7%	high
Andrew Painter	Houston AstrosHOU	19	20.9%	21.9%	20.9%	21.7	4.6	UNDER 4.5· 52% +6%	high
David Peterson	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	19	20.6%	21.6%	19.7%	23.2	4.6	UNDER 4.5· 52% -5%	high
Sandy Alcantara	New York MetsNYM	30	16.2%	22.2%	16.7%	26.9	4.5	UNDER 4.5· 54% +3%	high
Brandon Young	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	24	18.7%	21.1%	18.0%	24.3	4.4	OVER 3.5· 60% +7%	high
Gabriel Hughes	New York YankeesNYY	10	18.0%	24.3%	20.1%	22.0	4.4	UNDER 4.5· 56% -3%	med
Drew Anderson	Minnesota TwinsMIN	8	22.9%	20.7%	21.9%	18.4	4.2	UNDER 4.5· 53% +7%	low
Casey Mize	Washington NationalsWSH	22	19.9%	20.9%	19.4%	21.1	4.0	UNDER 4.5· 58% +7%	high
Nick Lodolo	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	17	18.7%	20.8%	17.1%	22.5	3.8	OVER 3.5· 52% -9%	high
AJ Smith-Shawver ⚠	Tampa Bay RaysTB	4	19.4%	19.1%	16.9%	21.0	3.5	—	low
Corbin Burnes ⚠	Kansas City RoyalsKC	0	—%	—%	—%	—	—	—	low
Riley Cornelio ⚠	San Diego PadresSD	0	—%	—%	—%	—	—	—	low

Hits Allowed

Hits we expect each starter to give up. Same idea as strikeouts, flipped — Proj H is the number, the Pick is the side against the nearest half-point line.

How we get the number

Hit% is how often a batter gets a hit off this pitcher over his own starts. Opp Hit% is how often that lineup gets a hit against this hand. Adj Hit% blends the two, then nudges for the ballpark — hit and run environments move together. Multiply by BF/St (batters faced in a typical start) and you get Proj H. Win chance is scored the same way as the other markets, against completed 2026 starts.

we like the OVERwe like the UNDERtoo close to callbright = strong pick, faded = slight edge+6% = our edge over the book's pricetap a row to star it

PitcherSP	Opp	St	Hit%	Opp Hit%	Adj Hit%	BF/St	Proj HH	Pick	Confidence
Sandy Alcantara	New York MetsNYM	30	22.12%	21.54%	21.11%	26.9	5.68	OVER 5.5· 50% +4%	med
Brandon Young	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	24	22.18%	21.56%	22.52%	24.3	5.5	UNDER 5.5· 53% -5%	med
David Peterson	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	19	23.36%	21.52%	23.3%	23.2	5.48	UNDER 5.5· 53% -2%	med
Patrick Sandoval	Los Angeles AngelsLAA	10	23.06%	21.37%	23.76%	22.7	5.46	OVER 4.5· 54% +7%	med
Sean Manaea	Miami MarlinsMIA	15	22.5%	21.34%	21.36%	24.7	5.39	UNDER 5.5· 55% +2%	med
Jack Perkins ⚠	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	13	22.99%	22.32%	24.85%	21.5	5.39	—	low
Michael Wacha	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	28	21.4%	21.12%	20.86%	25.4	5.3	UNDER 5.5· 55% +7%	med
Freddy Peralta	Atlanta BravesATL	28	22.42%	22.09%	23.07%	23.0	5.26	OVER 4.5· 55% +7%	med
José Soriano	AthleticsATH	28	20.84%	21.66%	21.87%	23.4	5.19	UNDER 5.5· 58%	med
Tanner Bibee	Baltimore OriolesBAL	29	21.48%	21.13%	21.37%	23.6	5.13	UNDER 5.5· 59% +6%	med
Andrew Painter	Houston AstrosHOU	19	22.58%	21.58%	22.94%	21.7	5.1	OVER 4.5· 58% +1%	med
Tarik Skubal	Cincinnati RedsCIN	22	21.16%	21.6%	21.18%	23.7	5.07	OVER 4.5· 51% +7%	med
Reid Detmers	Boston Red SoxBOS	28	20.51%	21.78%	21.53%	23.2	5.07	OVER 4.5· 57% +0%	med
Nick Lodolo	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	17	22.84%	21.68%	22.95%	22.5	5.05	UNDER 5.5· 58% +7%	med
AJ Smith-Shawver ⚠	Tampa Bay RaysTB	4	21.97%	22.47%	23.01%	21.0	4.83	—	low
Sean Burke	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	24	20.76%	22.1%	21.39%	22.6	4.8	OVER 4.5· 52% +3%	med
Gabriel Hughes	New York YankeesNYY	10	22.26%	20.99%	21.78%	22.0	4.79	OVER 4.5· 52% +2%	med
Hayden Wesneski ⚠	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	7	20.74%	21.64%	21.13%	22.6	4.73	—	low
Cam Schlittler	Colorado RockiesCOL	29	19.35%	22.09%	19.94%	23.3	4.72	OVER 4.5· 49% +7%	med
Quinn Mathews ⚠	San Francisco GiantsSF	5	22.03%	21.6%	20.73%	22.4	4.64	—	low
Dean Kremer	Detroit TigersDET	13	21.96%	21.58%	21.22%	21.5	4.57	UNDER 4.5· 49% +7%	med
Bubba Chandler	Chicago White SoxCWS	26	20.76%	21.28%	20.58%	22.0	4.47	UNDER 4.5· 54% -1%	med
Landen Roupp	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	27	20.43%	21.73%	19.25%	22.7	4.39	UNDER 4.5· 55% +5%	med
Cal Quantrill	Seattle MarinersSEA	12	21.1%	21.38%	19.57%	20.9	4.24	UNDER 4.5· 58%	med
Casey Mize	Washington NationalsWSH	22	21.51%	21.54%	20.31%	21.1	4.23	UNDER 4.5· 58% +5%	med
Jacob Misiorowski	Chicago CubsCHC	26	17.67%	21.58%	17.6%	22.8	3.99	OVER 3.5· 53% +7%	med
Drew Anderson	Minnesota TwinsMIN	8	20.94%	21.92%	20.54%	18.4	3.92	UNDER 4.5· 58% +7%	low
Corbin Burnes ⚠	Kansas City RoyalsKC	0	—%	—%	—%	—	—	—	low
Riley Cornelio ⚠	San Diego PadresSD	0	—%	—%	—%	—	—	—	low

OUT

Outs Recorded

How deep into the game we expect each starter to go, in outs (3 outs = 1 inning). Blank where his outings are too up-and-down to price.

How we get the number

IP/St is innings per start this year, and Base is that turned into outs with recent form weighted heavier. Matchup is the opponent nudge — how much traffic that lineup puts on and how many pitches it makes him throw. It is deliberately a small adjustment: team on-base splits this season are mostly random, so we lean on the pitcher's own workload rather than invent a matchup edge the data doesn't support.

we like the OVERwe like the UNDERtoo close to callbright = strong pick, faded = slight edge+6% = our edge over the book's pricetap a row to star it

PitcherSP	Opp	St	IP/St	Base	Matchup	Proj OutsOuts	Pick	Confidence
Sandy Alcantara	New York MetsNYM	30	6.52	19.5	×1.004 -0.3	19.2	OVER 18.5· 45% +7%	high
Michael Wacha	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	28	6.31	19.1	×1.004 -0.3	18.9	OVER 17.5· 59% +7%	high
Cam Schlittler	Colorado RockiesCOL	29	5.92	18.2	×1.010 -0.6	17.8	UNDER 18.5· 56% -5%	high
Tarik Skubal	Cincinnati RedsCIN	22	6.01	18.0	×0.983 -0.3	17.3	UNDER 17.5· 43% +7%	high
Brandon Young	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	24	5.71	17.3	×0.996 +0.1	17.3	UNDER 17.5· 50% -2%	high
Reid Detmers	Boston Red SoxBOS	28	5.79	18.1	×0.993 -0.8	17.1	UNDER 17.5· 53% +2%	high
Sean Manaea	Miami MarlinsMIA	15	5.69	17.5	×1.002 -0.7	16.8	UNDER 17.5· 53% +7%	high
Jacob Misiorowski	Chicago CubsCHC	26	5.96	17.6	×0.980 -0.7	16.5	UNDER 17.5· 52% +7%	high
Tanner Bibee	Baltimore OriolesBAL	29	5.73	17.1	×0.991 -0.5	16.5	UNDER 17.5· 58% +7%	high
José Soriano	AthleticsATH	28	5.57	16.8	×1.003 -0.4	16.4	OVER 16.5· 51%	high
Hayden Wesneski ⚠	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	7	5.67	16.9	×1.008 -0.6	16.4	—	low
Cal Quantrill	Seattle MarinersSEA	12	5.27	16.7	×1.002 -0.4	16.3	OVER 16.5· 50%	med
Andrew Painter	Houston AstrosHOU	19	5.02	16.0	×1.002 +0.1	16.1	OVER 15.5· 58% +4%	high
Landen Roupp	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	27	5.36	16.0	×1.006 -0.2	15.9	OVER 15.5· 44% +7%	high
Freddy Peralta	Atlanta BravesATL	28	5.25	16.4	×0.995 -0.6	15.6	OVER 15.5· 50% +7%	high
Patrick Sandoval	Los Angeles AngelsLAA	10	4.9	14.8	×1.003 +0.5	15.4	OVER 15.5· 51% +0%	med
Sean Burke	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	24	5.4	16.0	×0.983 -0.4	15.3	UNDER 17.5· 60% +7%	high
Casey Mize	Washington NationalsWSH	22	5.17	15.1	×1.008 -0.1	15.2	UNDER 16.5· 61% +7%	high
Dean Kremer	Detroit TigersDET	13	5.13	15.4	×1.002 -0.4	15.0	UNDER 15.5· 55% +1%	med
Bubba Chandler	Chicago White SoxCWS	26	5.03	15.2	×1.001 -0.3	14.9	OVER 14.5· 58% +1%	high
David Peterson	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	19	5.0	14.9	×0.987 +0.0	14.8	UNDER 15.5· 58% +2%	high
Quinn Mathews ⚠	San Francisco GiantsSF	5	4.94	14.8	×1.011 -0.2	14.7	—	low
Nick Lodolo	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	17	5.0	14.5	×0.998 -0.4	14.1	UNDER 15.5· 60% +7%	high
Gabriel Hughes	New York YankeesNYY	10	4.93	14.4	×0.995 -0.3	14.0	UNDER 14.5· 52% +7%	med
Drew Anderson	Minnesota TwinsMIN	8	4.41	13.6	×1.002 +0.4	14.0	UNDER 15.5· 62% +7%	low
Jack Perkins ⚠	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	13	4.52	13.3	×1.016 +0.8	—	—	low
AJ Smith-Shawver ⚠	Tampa Bay RaysTB	4	4.42	13.3	×1.000 +0.5	—	—	low
Corbin Burnes ⚠	Kansas City RoyalsKC	0	—	—	—	—	—	low
Riley Cornelio ⚠	San Diego PadresSD	0	—	—	—	—	—	low

Earned Runs

Runs we expect each starter to give up. Priced against a whole-run line (1.5 / 2.5 / 3.5). This is the noisiest of the three markets, so confidence never goes above med.

How we get the number

ER Rate is earned runs per batter faced across his starts, pulled toward the league average when he hasn't thrown much — a small sample shouldn't get treated like a full season. Opp× scales it by how well that lineup scores against this hand, Park× by the ballpark. Multiply through by batters faced and you get Proj ER. We price it as a count that can blow up — one bad inning is most of a bad night — rather than assuming runs trickle in evenly.

we like the OVERwe like the UNDERtoo close to callbright = strong pick, faded = slight edge+6% = our edge over the book's pricetap a row to star it

PitcherSP	Opp	St	ER Rate	Opp×	Park×	Proj ERER	Pick	Confidence
Jack Perkins ⚠	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	13	15.13%	×0.983	×1.05	3.39	—	low
David Peterson	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	19	13.08%	×0.994	×1.00	3.06	OVER 2.5· 54% +6%	med
Gabriel Hughes	New York YankeesNYY	10	13.80%	×0.989	×1.01	3.03	OVER 2.5· 53% -1%	med
Andrew Painter	Houston AstrosHOU	19	13.17%	×1.001	×1.02	2.99	OVER 2.5· 52% +7%	med
Freddy Peralta	Atlanta BravesATL	28	12.14%	×1.008	×1.01	2.82	UNDER 2.5· 51% -7%	med
Dean Kremer	Detroit TigersDET	13	13.51%	×0.996	×0.97	2.81	UNDER 2.5· 51% -1%	med
AJ Smith-Shawver ⚠	Tampa Bay RaysTB	4	12.48%	×1.027	×1.01	2.72	—	low
Sean Manaea	Miami MarlinsMIA	15	11.22%	×0.990	×0.96	2.69	UNDER 2.5· 54% +3%	med
Nick Lodolo	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	17	11.87%	×1.017	×1.00	2.66	UNDER 2.5· 50% +7%	med
Tanner Bibee	Baltimore OriolesBAL	29	10.84%	×0.990	×1.02	2.63	UNDER 2.5· 53% +7%	med
Patrick Sandoval	Los Angeles AngelsLAA	10	10.46%	×0.982	×1.04	2.46	OVER 1.5· 63% +7%	med
Sandy Alcantara	New York MetsNYM	30	9.66%	×0.979	×0.96	2.44	UNDER 2.5· 59% +3%	med
Reid Detmers	Boston Red SoxBOS	28	9.68%	×1.025	×1.04	2.43	UNDER 2.5· 59% -0%	med
José Soriano	AthleticsATH	28	9.52%	×1.002	×1.05	2.38	UNDER 2.5· 60%	med
Bubba Chandler	Chicago White SoxCWS	26	10.86%	×1.002	×1.01	2.38	UNDER 2.5· 60% +5%	med
Michael Wacha	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	28	9.46%	×0.961	×1.00	2.31	UNDER 2.5· 54% +7%	med
Landen Roupp	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	27	10.79%	×0.979	×0.94	2.27	OVER 1.5· 59% +1%	med
Brandon Young	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	24	9.22%	×0.976	×1.02	2.24	UNDER 2.5· 62% +7%	med
Sean Burke	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	24	9.46%	×1.035	×1.01	2.22	UNDER 2.5· 63% +5%	med
Quinn Mathews ⚠	San Francisco GiantsSF	5	10.47%	×0.979	×0.94	2.16	—	low
Hayden Wesneski ⚠	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	7	9.59%	×0.985	×1.02	2.16	—	low
Tarik Skubal	Cincinnati RedsCIN	22	8.59%	×1.019	×1.00	2.10	OVER 1.5· 55% +4%	med
Casey Mize	Washington NationalsWSH	22	10.01%	×1.014	×0.95	2.01	OVER 1.5· 53% -6%	med
Cam Schlittler	Colorado RockiesCOL	29	6.63%	×1.035	×1.01	1.64	UNDER 1.5· 56% +2%	med
Cal Quantrill	Seattle MarinersSEA	12	7.91%	×0.993	×0.94	1.60	UNDER 1.5· 57%	med
Jacob Misiorowski	Chicago CubsCHC	26	6.72%	×1.037	×1.00	1.58	UNDER 1.5· 58% -1%	med
Drew Anderson	Minnesota TwinsMIN	8	8.31%	×1.018	×0.97	1.57	UNDER 1.5· 52% +7%	low
Corbin Burnes ⚠	Kansas City RoyalsKC	0	—	—	—	—	—	low
Riley Cornelio ⚠	San Diego PadresSD	0	—	—	—	—	—	low

Extra Plays

The best outs and earned-run numbers on the board, same engine as the strikeout model. These sit outside the two-pick card above — they are newer markets for us, and we keep the opponent adjustment small on purpose, because this season's team splits are still mostly random.

Patrick Sandoval OVER 14.5 outs

vs Los Angeles Angels · 14.8 base × 1.003 matchup → 15.4

65%fair odds -188

Jacob Misiorowski OVER 15.5 outs

vs Chicago Cubs · 17.6 base × 0.98 matchup → 16.5

64%fair odds -178

Tarik Skubal OVER 16.5 outs

vs Cincinnati Reds · 18.0 base × 0.983 matchup → 17.3

64%fair odds -177

Casey Mize UNDER 2.5 ER

vs Washington Nationals · we project 2.01 earned runs

68%fair odds -212

Tarik Skubal UNDER 2.5 ER

vs Cincinnati Reds · we project 2.10 earned runs

66%fair odds -194

Gabriel Hughes UNDER 3.5 ER

vs New York Yankees · we project 3.03 earned runs

65%fair odds -182

W-L

Track Record

Every pick we post gets graded the next day against the box score — wins, losses and all — see every one →

All picks 45-39 (54%) · parlay 1-6 · -5.13 units at $100 a card

9/8 7-59/7 7-59/6 9-39/5 3-99/4 5-79/3 6-69/2 8-4

Newest first. Past results do not predict future outcomes.

Every past card (8)

Our own projections · odds shown are fair value with no house cut — not sportsbook prices
Analysis only · not gambling advice · 21+
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