Tonight's Card

Sep 8 Prop Picks

Tue · Sep 8, 2026 15-game slate · 30 starters Strikeouts · outs · earned runs · batters

Live record · since Sep 2 · 16 slates

130-81Picks graded

62%Hit rate

-9.1uUnits · $100/card

3-13Parlay record

Fair prices, not sportsbook prices. No house cut is built in, so your book will pay a little less — shop your own line before betting.

O+U

Tonight's Two

Our two biggest edges over the sportsbook's own price — one over, one under, from whichever market (strikeouts, outs, earned runs or hits) it shows up in. The line and the Mkt Edge are measured against a real book (bovada) wherever one has posted; where none has, we fall back to the nearest half-point line.

Tonight's Two fair odds +136 · 2.36×

Under Earned runs Casey Mize vs Washington Nationals

Our Proj2.01 ER

Line2.5 ER

Edge-0.5

Win %68%

Fair Odds-212

Under Hits Jacob Misiorowski vs Chicago Cubs

Our Proj4.02 hits

Line4.5 hits

Edge-0.5

Win %62%

Fair Odds-167

$100 bet · fair odds

$235.50

if both picks hit

+$135.50 profit

Fair-odds payout, not a sportsbook payout. Each pick is priced at the chance we give it (-212 Mize × -167 Misiorowski → +136 together, decimal 2.36). A real book takes its cut and will pay less than this.

PROPS EDGE · 2026-09-08 · our projection

On the Record

These 10 calls are the record. Everything else on this page is projection and context — useful for finding your own angle, but not scored. Tomorrow morning each row below is graded against the box score and the running track record moves by exactly these results, win or lose. Nothing is added afterwards and nothing quietly drops out.

Player	Source	Market	Pick	Line	Win %
Casey Mize	Tonight's Two	ER	Under	2.5	68%
Jacob Misiorowski	Tonight's Two	HITS	Under	4.5	62%
Drew Anderson	Extra play	K	Over	3.5	59%
Bubba Chandler	Extra play	OUTS	Under	15.5	57%
Tarik Skubal	Extra play	ER	Under	2.5	66%
Cam Schlittler	Extra play	K	Over	6.5	58%
Patrick Sandoval	Outs lean	OUTS	Over	14.5	65%
Tarik Skubal	Outs lean	OUTS	Over	16.5	65%
Jacob Misiorowski	Outs lean	OUTS	Over	15.5	64%
Gabriel Hughes	ER lean	ER	Under	3.5	65%

OVERUNDERtoo closehighest-confidence pick+6% edge over the booktap a row to star it

Strikeouts

All 30 probable starters, most projected strikeouts first — Proj K is tonight's number, Pick is the side against the nearest half-point line.

PitcherSP	Opp	St	K%	Opp K%	Proj KK	Pick	Confidence
Jacob Misiorowski	Chicago CubsCHC	26	34.6%	21.5%	7.7	UNDER 7.5· 51%	high
Tarik Skubal	Cincinnati RedsCIN	22	29.6%	24.3%	7.6	UNDER 7.5· 52%	high
Cam Schlittler	Colorado RockiesCOL	29	30.5%	22.0%	7.2	OVER 6.5· 58%	high
Reid Detmers	Boston Red SoxBOS	28	27.2%	21.8%	6.0	OVER 5.5· 53%	high
Sean Burke	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	24	24.4%	23.2%	5.8	UNDER 5.5· 50%	high
Sean Manaea	Miami MarlinsMIA	15	20.9%	23.1%	5.5	UNDER 5.5· 54%	high
Dean Kremer	Detroit TigersDET	13	23.4%	22.7%	5.3	UNDER 5.5· 57%	med
Patrick Sandoval	Los Angeles AngelsLAA	10	22.0%	24.4%	5.3	UNDER 5.5· 57%	med
Bryce Miller	Texas RangersTEX	17	22.5%	22.2%	5.2	OVER 4.5· 56%	high
Cal Quantrill	Seattle MarinersSEA	12	22.3%	22.6%	5.1	OVER 4.5· 56%	med
José Soriano	AthleticsATH	28	21.6%	21.6%	5.1	OVER 4.5· 55%	high
Quinn Mathews ⚠	San Francisco GiantsSF	5	21.8%	23.2%	5.1	—	low
Freddy Peralta	Atlanta BravesATL	28	21.7%	22.1%	5.0	OVER 4.5· 55%	high
Michael Wacha	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	28	21.2%	20.2%	5.0	OVER 4.5· 55%	high
Tanner Bibee	Baltimore OriolesBAL	29	19.1%	23.4%	4.9	OVER 4.5· 53%	high
Hayden Wesneski ⚠	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	7	21.6%	22.0%	4.8	—	low
Bubba Chandler	Chicago White SoxCWS	26	20.5%	23.4%	4.8	OVER 4.5· 51%	high
Andrew Painter	Houston AstrosHOU	19	20.9%	21.9%	4.7	UNDER 4.5· 51%	high
Jack Perkins ⚠	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	13	24.4%	19.3%	4.7	—	low
Landen Roupp	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	27	20.6%	21.6%	4.7	UNDER 4.5· 50%	high
David Peterson	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	19	20.7%	21.6%	4.6	UNDER 4.5· 52%	high
Sandy Alcantara	New York MetsNYM	30	16.2%	22.1%	4.5	UNDER 4.5· 54%	high
Brandon Young	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	24	18.7%	21.0%	4.4	UNDER 4.5· 56%	high
Gabriel Hughes	New York YankeesNYY	10	18.0%	24.3%	4.4	UNDER 4.5· 55%	med
Drew Anderson	Minnesota TwinsMIN	8	22.9%	20.7%	4.2	OVER 3.5· 59%	low
Casey Mize	Washington NationalsWSH	22	19.9%	21.0%	4.1	OVER 3.5· 55%	high
Nick Lodolo	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	17	18.7%	20.9%	3.8	OVER 3.5· 52%	high
AJ Smith-Shawver ⚠	Tampa Bay RaysTB	4	19.4%	19.2%	3.6	—	low
Corbin Burnes ⚠	Kansas City RoyalsKC	1	—%	—%	—	—	low
Riley Cornelio ⚠	San Diego PadresSD	1	—%	—%	—	—	low

Hits Allowed

Hits we expect each starter to give up — Proj H is the number, the Pick is the side against the nearest half-point line.

PitcherSP	Opp	St	Hit%	Opp Hit%	Proj HH	Pick	Confidence
Sandy Alcantara	New York MetsNYM	30	22.1%	21.55%	5.68	OVER 5.5· 50%	med
Brandon Young	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	24	22.17%	21.59%	5.51	UNDER 5.5· 53%	med
David Peterson	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	19	23.29%	21.56%	5.47	UNDER 5.5· 53%	med
Patrick Sandoval	Los Angeles AngelsLAA	10	22.99%	21.47%	5.46	UNDER 5.5· 54%	med
Sean Manaea	Miami MarlinsMIA	15	22.46%	21.39%	5.4	UNDER 5.5· 55%	med
Jack Perkins ⚠	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	13	22.93%	22.37%	5.39	—	low
Michael Wacha	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	28	21.41%	21.08%	5.29	UNDER 5.5· 57%	med
Freddy Peralta	Atlanta BravesATL	28	22.39%	22.07%	5.25	UNDER 5.5· 57%	med
José Soriano	AthleticsATH	28	20.87%	21.64%	5.19	UNDER 5.5· 58%	med
Tanner Bibee	Baltimore OriolesBAL	29	21.49%	21.1%	5.13	UNDER 5.5· 59%	med
Andrew Painter	Houston AstrosHOU	19	22.55%	21.62%	5.1	UNDER 5.5· 60%	med
Tarik Skubal	Cincinnati RedsCIN	22	21.17%	21.57%	5.07	UNDER 5.5· 60%	med
Reid Detmers	Boston Red SoxBOS	28	20.55%	21.7%	5.06	UNDER 5.5· 61%	med
Nick Lodolo	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	17	22.79%	21.67%	5.04	UNDER 5.5· 61%	med
AJ Smith-Shawver ⚠	Tampa Bay RaysTB	4	21.95%	22.51%	4.84	—	low
Sean Burke	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	24	20.79%	22.2%	4.83	OVER 4.5· 53%	med
Gabriel Hughes	New York YankeesNYY	10	22.23%	20.96%	4.78	OVER 4.5· 52%	med
Hayden Wesneski ⚠	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	7	20.8%	21.66%	4.75	—	low
Cam Schlittler	Colorado RockiesCOL	29	19.42%	22.08%	4.73	OVER 4.5· 51%	med
Quinn Mathews ⚠	San Francisco GiantsSF	5	22.01%	21.59%	4.64	—	low
Dean Kremer	Detroit TigersDET	13	21.95%	21.57%	4.57	UNDER 4.5· 52%	med
Bubba Chandler	Chicago White SoxCWS	26	20.79%	21.26%	4.47	UNDER 4.5· 54%	med
Bryce Miller	Texas RangersTEX	17	21.34%	21.4%	4.43	UNDER 4.5· 55%	med
Landen Roupp	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	27	20.47%	21.69%	4.39	UNDER 4.5· 55%	med
Cal Quantrill	Seattle MarinersSEA	12	21.13%	21.38%	4.24	UNDER 4.5· 58%	med
Casey Mize	Washington NationalsWSH	22	21.52%	21.53%	4.23	UNDER 4.5· 58%	med
Jacob Misiorowski	Chicago CubsCHC	26	17.81%	21.57%	4.02	UNDER 4.5· 62%	med
Drew Anderson	Minnesota TwinsMIN	8	20.98%	21.91%	3.93	OVER 3.5· 55%	low
Corbin Burnes ⚠	Kansas City RoyalsKC	1	—%	—%	—	—	low
Riley Cornelio ⚠	San Diego PadresSD	1	—%	—%	—	—	low

OUT

Outs Recorded

How deep into the game we expect each starter to go, in outs (3 outs = 1 inning). Blank where his outings are too up-and-down to price.

PitcherSP	Opp	St	IP/St	Proj OutsOuts	Pick	Confidence
Sandy Alcantara	New York MetsNYM	30	6.52	19.2	UNDER 19.5· 52%	high
Michael Wacha	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	28	6.31	18.9	UNDER 19.5· 56%	high
Cam Schlittler	Colorado RockiesCOL	29	5.92	17.8	UNDER 18.5· 56%	high
Tarik Skubal	Cincinnati RedsCIN	22	6.01	17.4	OVER 17.5· 51%	high
Brandon Young	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	24	5.71	17.3	UNDER 17.5· 50%	high
Reid Detmers	Boston Red SoxBOS	28	5.79	17.1	UNDER 17.5· 53%	high
Sean Manaea	Miami MarlinsMIA	15	5.69	16.8	OVER 16.5· 56%	high
Jacob Misiorowski	Chicago CubsCHC	26	5.96	16.5	OVER 16.5· 52%	high
Tanner Bibee	Baltimore OriolesBAL	29	5.73	16.5	OVER 16.5· 52%	high
José Soriano	AthleticsATH	28	5.57	16.4	OVER 16.5· 51%	high
Hayden Wesneski ⚠	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	7	5.67	16.4	—	low
Cal Quantrill	Seattle MarinersSEA	12	5.27	16.3	OVER 16.5· 50%	med
Andrew Painter	Houston AstrosHOU	19	5.02	16.1	UNDER 16.5· 53%	high
Bryce Miller	Texas RangersTEX	17	5.51	16.0	UNDER 16.5· 55%	high
Landen Roupp	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	27	5.36	15.9	UNDER 16.5· 55%	high
Freddy Peralta	Atlanta BravesATL	28	5.25	15.7	OVER 15.5· 55%	high
Patrick Sandoval	Los Angeles AngelsLAA	10	4.9	15.4	OVER 15.5· 51%	med
Sean Burke	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	24	5.4	15.3	UNDER 15.5· 50%	high
Casey Mize	Washington NationalsWSH	22	5.17	15.2	UNDER 15.5· 51%	high
Dean Kremer	Detroit TigersDET	13	5.13	15.0	UNDER 15.5· 55%	med
Bubba Chandler	Chicago White SoxCWS	26	5.03	14.9	UNDER 15.5· 57%	high
David Peterson	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	19	5.0	14.8	OVER 14.5· 56%	high
Quinn Mathews ⚠	San Francisco GiantsSF	5	4.94	14.7	—	low
Nick Lodolo	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	17	5.0	14.1	UNDER 14.5· 54%	high
Gabriel Hughes	New York YankeesNYY	10	4.93	14.0	UNDER 14.5· 56%	med
Drew Anderson	Minnesota TwinsMIN	8	4.41	14.0	UNDER 14.5· 55%	low
Jack Perkins ⚠	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	13	4.52	—	—	low
AJ Smith-Shawver ⚠	Tampa Bay RaysTB	4	4.42	—	—	low
Corbin Burnes ⚠	Kansas City RoyalsKC	1	—	—	—	low
Riley Cornelio ⚠	San Diego PadresSD	1	—	—	—	low

Earned Runs

Runs we expect each starter to give up. Priced against a whole-run line (1.5 / 2.5 / 3.5). This is the noisiest of the three markets, so confidence never goes above med.

PitcherSP	Opp	St	Proj ERER	Pick	Confidence
Jack Perkins ⚠	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	13	3.37	—	low
David Peterson	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	19	3.06	UNDER 3.5· 64%	med
Gabriel Hughes	New York YankeesNYY	10	3.02	UNDER 3.5· 65%	med
Andrew Painter	Houston AstrosHOU	19	2.99	OVER 2.5· 52%	med
Freddy Peralta	Atlanta BravesATL	28	2.81	UNDER 2.5· 51%	med
Dean Kremer	Detroit TigersDET	13	2.80	UNDER 2.5· 51%	med
AJ Smith-Shawver ⚠	Tampa Bay RaysTB	4	2.72	—	low
Sean Manaea	Miami MarlinsMIA	15	2.69	UNDER 2.5· 54%	med
Nick Lodolo	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	17	2.66	UNDER 2.5· 54%	med
Tanner Bibee	Baltimore OriolesBAL	29	2.63	UNDER 2.5· 55%	med
Patrick Sandoval	Los Angeles AngelsLAA	10	2.47	UNDER 2.5· 58%	med
Sandy Alcantara	New York MetsNYM	30	2.45	UNDER 2.5· 59%	med
Reid Detmers	Boston Red SoxBOS	28	2.42	UNDER 2.5· 59%	med
José Soriano	AthleticsATH	28	2.38	UNDER 2.5· 60%	med
Bubba Chandler	Chicago White SoxCWS	26	2.38	UNDER 2.5· 60%	med
Michael Wacha	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	28	2.31	UNDER 2.5· 62%	med
Landen Roupp	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	27	2.26	UNDER 2.5· 63%	med
Brandon Young	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	24	2.25	UNDER 2.5· 63%	med
Bryce Miller	Texas RangersTEX	17	2.24	UNDER 2.5· 63%	med
Sean Burke	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	24	2.23	UNDER 2.5· 63%	med
Hayden Wesneski ⚠	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	7	2.17	—	low
Quinn Mathews ⚠	San Francisco GiantsSF	5	2.16	—	low
Tarik Skubal	Cincinnati RedsCIN	22	2.10	UNDER 2.5· 66%	med
Casey Mize	Washington NationalsWSH	22	2.01	UNDER 2.5· 68%	med
Cam Schlittler	Colorado RockiesCOL	29	1.65	UNDER 1.5· 56%	med
Cal Quantrill	Seattle MarinersSEA	12	1.61	UNDER 1.5· 57%	med
Jacob Misiorowski	Chicago CubsCHC	26	1.59	UNDER 1.5· 57%	med
Drew Anderson	Minnesota TwinsMIN	8	1.58	UNDER 1.5· 58%	low
Corbin Burnes ⚠	Kansas City RoyalsKC	1	—	—	low
Riley Cornelio ⚠	San Diego PadresSD	1	—	—	low

Extra Plays

The best outs and earned-run numbers on the board, same engine as the strikeout model. These sit outside the two-pick card above — they are newer markets for us, and we keep the opponent adjustment small on purpose, because this season's team splits are still mostly random.

Patrick Sandoval OVER 14.5 outs

vs Los Angeles Angels · 14.8 base × 1.002 matchup → 15.4

65%fair odds -188

Tarik Skubal OVER 16.5 outs

vs Cincinnati Reds · 18.0 base × 0.985 matchup → 17.4

65%fair odds -186

Jacob Misiorowski OVER 15.5 outs

vs Chicago Cubs · 17.6 base × 0.98 matchup → 16.5

64%fair odds -178

Casey Mize UNDER 2.5 ER

vs Washington Nationals · we project 2.01 earned runs

68%fair odds -212

Tarik Skubal UNDER 2.5 ER

vs Cincinnati Reds · we project 2.10 earned runs

66%fair odds -194

Gabriel Hughes UNDER 3.5 ER

vs New York Yankees · we project 3.02 earned runs

65%fair odds -184

W-L

Track Record

Every pick we post gets graded the next day against the box score — wins, losses and all — see every one →

All picks 130-81 (62%) · parlay 3-13 · -9.07 units at $100 a card

9/17 8-69/16 7-89/15 9-59/14 11-39/13 9-59/12 8-59/11 11-39/10 8-5

Newest first. Past results do not predict future outcomes.

Every past card (16)

Our own projections · odds shown are fair value with no house cut — not sportsbook prices
Analysis only · not gambling advice · 21+
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