Tonight's Card

Sep 15 Prop Picks

Tue · Sep 15, 2026 15-game slate · 29 starters Strikeouts · outs · earned runs · batters

Live record · since Sep 2 · 16 slates

130-81Picks graded

62%Hit rate

-9.1uUnits · $100/card

3-13Parlay record

Fair prices, not sportsbook prices. No house cut is built in, so your book will pay a little less — shop your own line before betting.

O+U

Tonight's Two

Our two biggest edges over the sportsbook's own price — one over, one under, from whichever market (strikeouts, outs, earned runs or hits) it shows up in. The line and the Mkt Edge are measured against a real book (pinnacle+bovada) wherever one has posted; where none has, we fall back to the nearest half-point line.

Tonight's Two fair odds +143 · 2.43×

Under Outs Logan Gilbert vs Los Angeles Angels

Our Proj16.6 outs

PINNACLE18.5 outs

Mkt Edge+7%

Win %65%

Fair Odds-182

Under Hits Max Fried vs Minnesota Twins

Our Proj3.84 hits

PINNACLE4.5 hits

Mkt Edge+7%

Win %64%

Fair Odds-176

$100 bet · fair odds

$243.05

if both picks hit

+$143.05 profit

Fair-odds payout, not a sportsbook payout. Each pick is priced at the chance we give it (-182 Gilbert × -176 Fried → +143 together, decimal 2.43). A real book takes its cut and will pay less than this.

PROPS EDGE · 2026-09-15 · our projection

On the Record

These 14 calls are the record. Everything else on this page is projection and context — useful for finding your own angle, but not scored. Tomorrow morning each row below is graded against the box score and the running track record moves by exactly these results, win or lose. Nothing is added afterwards and nothing quietly drops out.

Player	Source	Market	Pick	Line	Win %
Logan Gilbert	Tonight's Two	OUTS	Under	18.5	65%
Max Fried	Tonight's Two	HITS	Under	4.5	64%
Sean Manaea	Extra play	K	Under	6.5	62%
Martín Pérez	Extra play	ER	Under	2.5	67%
Andre Pallante	Extra play	HITS	Under	5.5	61%
Michael Wacha	Extra play	OUTS	Over	17.5	60%
Janson Junk	Outs lean	OUTS	Over	13.5	64%
Hunter Brown	Outs lean	OUTS	Over	15.5	63%
Walker Buehler	Outs lean	OUTS	Over	13.5	62%
Michael Soroka	ER lean	ER	Under	2.5	68%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	ER lean	ER	Under	2.5	67%
Yandy Díaz	Batter	HIT	1+ Hit		75%
Freddie Freeman	Batter	HIT	1+ Hit		73%
Drake Baldwin	Batter	HIT	1+ Hit		73%

OVERUNDERtoo closehighest-confidence pick+6% edge over the booktap a row to star it

Strikeouts

All 29 probable starters, most projected strikeouts first — Proj K is tonight's number, Pick is the side against the nearest half-point line.

PitcherSP	Opp	St	K%	Opp K%	Proj KK	Pick	Confidence
Jacob Misiorowski	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	27	34.6%	23.0%	8.2	UNDER 8.5· 58% +1%	high
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Cincinnati RedsCIN	26	27.7%	25.2%	7.9	OVER 7.5· 52% +3%	high
Logan Gilbert	Los Angeles AngelsLAA	29	27.5%	25.0%	7.3	OVER 6.5· 57% +7%	high
Cristopher Sánchez	Washington NationalsWSH	30	25.5%	23.8%	7.0	OVER 6.5· 53%	high
Kevin Gausman	Atlanta BravesATL	30	24.9%	21.7%	5.8	OVER 5.5· 50% +2%	high
Sean Manaea	Baltimore OriolesBAL	16	19.9%	25.6%	5.6	UNDER 6.5· 62% +7%	high
Hunter Brown	Kansas City RoyalsKC	17	25.9%	20.5%	5.6	UNDER 5.5· 52% +5%	high
Patrick Sandoval	Texas RangersTEX	11	22.9%	23.5%	5.5	UNDER 5.5· 54%	med
Shane Baz	New York MetsNYM	29	21.3%	22.0%	5.4	OVER 4.5· 60% +7%	high
Michael Wacha	Houston AstrosHOU	29	21.1%	22.0%	5.3	OVER 4.5· 59% +7%	high
Foster Griffin	Chicago White SoxCWS	29	21.3%	24.1%	5.2	OVER 4.5· 58% -0%	high
Max Fried	Minnesota TwinsMIN	18	25.1%	22.5%	5.1	OVER 4.5· 58% +1%	high
Griffin Jax	AthleticsATH	20	24.8%	21.5%	4.6	UNDER 4.5· 48% +7%	high
Bailey Ober	New York YankeesNYY	22	18.3%	24.2%	4.6	UNDER 4.5· 52% -7%	high
Michael Soroka	Miami MarlinsMIA	18	22.5%	21.4%	4.6	UNDER 4.5· 53% -3%	high
Jack Perkins ⚠	Tampa Bay RaysTB	14	22.9%	19.0%	4.3	—	low
Kyle Freeland	San Diego PadresSD	23	18.4%	22.0%	4.2	OVER 2.5· 59% +7%	high
Blade Tidwell ⚠	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	7	19.4%	21.5%	4.1	—	low
Walker Buehler	Colorado RockiesCOL	29	21.2%	22.0%	4.1	OVER 3.5· 54% +7%	high
Ryan Johnson	Seattle MarinersSEA	16	18.4%	22.6%	4.1	UNDER 4.5· 60% +3%	high
Jackson Kent ⚠	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	6	18.8%	22.2%	4.0	—	low
Drew Anderson	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	9	22.4%	19.3%	3.9	OVER 3.5· 53% -5%	low
Rhett Lowder	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	23	17.5%	20.8%	3.7	UNDER 3.5· 51% +2%	high
Davis Martin	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	26	18.4%	20.9%	3.6	OVER 2.5· 62% +7%	high
Martín Pérez	Chicago CubsCHC	24	17.2%	21.6%	3.6	UNDER 3.5· 52%	high
Andre Pallante	San Francisco GiantsSF	26	17.0%	20.8%	3.6	UNDER 3.5· 52% +3%	high
Janson Junk	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	22	15.4%	20.2%	2.9	OVER 2.5· 55% +5%	high
Lake Bachar ⚠	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	9	26.2%	21.8%	2.3	—	low
Braydon Fisher ⚠	Detroit TigersDET	9	22.9%	22.6%	1.0	—	low

Hits Allowed

Hits we expect each starter to give up — Proj H is the number, the Pick is the side against the nearest half-point line.

PitcherSP	Opp	St	Hit%	Opp Hit%	Proj HH	Pick	Confidence
Kyle Freeland	San Diego PadresSD	23	25.7%	21.66%	7.03	OVER 5.5· 50% +7%	med
Cristopher Sánchez	Washington NationalsWSH	30	23.23%	21.91%	6.14	UNDER 6.5· 58%	med
Patrick Sandoval	Texas RangersTEX	11	24.6%	21.86%	5.81	OVER 5.5· 49% +7%	med
Rhett Lowder	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	23	23.99%	22.18%	5.75	OVER 5.5· 51% +2%	med
Kevin Gausman	Atlanta BravesATL	30	23.24%	22.16%	5.64	UNDER 5.5· 51% -4%	med
Sean Manaea	Baltimore OriolesBAL	16	22.95%	21.54%	5.43	OVER 4.5· 58% +7%	med
Shane Baz	New York MetsNYM	29	22.78%	21.65%	5.41	UNDER 5.5· 55% -2%	med
Michael Wacha	Houston AstrosHOU	29	21.13%	21.57%	5.29	UNDER 5.5· 55% +7%	med
Jack Perkins ⚠	Tampa Bay RaysTB	14	24.01%	22.65%	5.18	—	low
Walker Buehler	Colorado RockiesCOL	29	22.58%	22.09%	5.05	OVER 4.5· 56% -2%	med
Andre Pallante	San Francisco GiantsSF	26	22.21%	22.22%	5.03	UNDER 5.5· 61%	med
Foster Griffin	Chicago White SoxCWS	29	21.97%	21.48%	4.87	OVER 4.5· 53% -3%	med
Janson Junk	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	22	23.79%	21.13%	4.84	OVER 4.5· 52% -4%	med
Bailey Ober	New York YankeesNYY	22	22.36%	21.0%	4.79	OVER 4.5· 52% -1%	med
Jackson Kent ⚠	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	6	22.15%	21.59%	4.79	—	low
Logan Gilbert	Los Angeles AngelsLAA	29	20.45%	21.23%	4.74	OVER 4.5· 51% +1%	med
Michael Soroka	Miami MarlinsMIA	18	21.9%	22.16%	4.67	UNDER 4.5· 51% -4%	med
Hunter Brown	Kansas City RoyalsKC	17	20.19%	21.88%	4.66	UNDER 4.5· 51% +1%	med
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Cincinnati RedsCIN	26	18.46%	20.81%	4.63	UNDER 4.5· 51% +6%	med
Martín Pérez	Chicago CubsCHC	24	20.54%	21.82%	4.62	UNDER 4.5· 51%	med
Davis Martin	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	26	23.13%	21.61%	4.61	UNDER 4.5· 50% +7%	med
Ryan Johnson	Seattle MarinersSEA	16	20.85%	21.45%	4.49	UNDER 4.5· 50% +7%	med
Blade Tidwell ⚠	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	7	21.09%	21.71%	4.41	—	low
Drew Anderson	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	9	20.67%	22.51%	4.23	UNDER 4.5· 52% +7%	low
Griffin Jax	AthleticsATH	20	21.69%	21.65%	3.98	OVER 3.5· 55% -1%	med
Max Fried	Minnesota TwinsMIN	18	19.18%	21.42%	3.84	UNDER 4.5· 64% +7%	med
Jacob Misiorowski	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	27	16.49%	22.17%	3.76	OVER 3.5· 51% +4%	med
Lake Bachar ⚠	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	9	19.49%	22.39%	1.77	—	low
Braydon Fisher ⚠	Detroit TigersDET	9	19.82%	21.61%	0.88	—	low

OUT

Outs Recorded

How deep into the game we expect each starter to go, in outs (3 outs = 1 inning). Blank where his outings are too up-and-down to price.

PitcherSP	Opp	St	IP/St	Proj OutsOuts	Pick	Confidence
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Cincinnati RedsCIN	26	6.62	18.8	OVER 18.5· 47% +7%	high
Cristopher Sánchez	Washington NationalsWSH	30	6.24	18.1	UNDER 18.5· 53%	high
Michael Wacha	Houston AstrosHOU	29	6.3	18.1	OVER 17.5· 60% +1%	high
Shane Baz	New York MetsNYM	29	5.83	17.0	OVER 16.5· 58% +7%	high
Logan Gilbert	Los Angeles AngelsLAA	29	5.93	16.6	UNDER 18.5· 65% +7%	high
Sean Manaea	Baltimore OriolesBAL	16	5.64	16.6	OVER 16.5· 54% +2%	high
Andre Pallante	San Francisco GiantsSF	26	5.62	16.6	OVER 16.5· 54% +4%	high
Hunter Brown	Kansas City RoyalsKC	17	5.41	16.4	UNDER 17.5· 56% +7%	high
Kevin Gausman	Atlanta BravesATL	30	5.54	16.3	UNDER 17.5· 56% +7%	high
Jacob Misiorowski	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	27	5.97	16.1	UNDER 17.5· 57% +7%	high
Kyle Freeland	San Diego PadresSD	23	5.4	16.0	UNDER 16.5· 53%	high
Foster Griffin	Chicago White SoxCWS	29	5.61	15.9	OVER 15.5· 50% +7%	high
Ryan Johnson	Seattle MarinersSEA	16	4.96	15.8	OVER 15.5· 56%	high
Max Fried	Minnesota TwinsMIN	18	5.5	15.4	UNDER 16.5· 58% +7%	high
Bailey Ober	New York YankeesNYY	22	5.35	15.1	UNDER 15.5· 53%	high
Patrick Sandoval	Texas RangersTEX	11	5.0	14.9	UNDER 16.5· 58% +7%	med
Martín Pérez	Chicago CubsCHC	24	5.1	14.9	UNDER 15.5· 56%	high
Rhett Lowder	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	23	4.88	14.7	OVER 14.5· 54%	high
Blade Tidwell ⚠	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	7	4.96	14.4	—	low
Walker Buehler	Colorado RockiesCOL	29	4.78	14.4	OVER 14.5· 51%	high
Janson Junk	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	22	5.0	14.4	OVER 14.5· 51%	high
Griffin Jax	AthleticsATH	20	4.51	14.3	OVER 14.5· 50%	high
Jackson Kent ⚠	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	6	4.55	14.3	—	low
Drew Anderson	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	9	4.52	14.1	UNDER 14.5· 54%	low
Michael Soroka	Miami MarlinsMIA	18	5.29	13.9	UNDER 14.5· 53% +7%	high
Davis Martin	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	26	5.22	13.9	UNDER 14.5· 54%	high
Jack Perkins ⚠	Tampa Bay RaysTB	14	4.55	—	—	low
Lake Bachar ⚠	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	9	2.26	—	—	low
Braydon Fisher ⚠	Detroit TigersDET	9	1.11	—	—	low

Earned Runs

Runs we expect each starter to give up. Priced against a whole-run line (1.5 / 2.5 / 3.5). This is the noisiest of the three markets, so confidence never goes above med.

PitcherSP	Opp	St	Proj ERER	Pick	Confidence
Kyle Freeland	San Diego PadresSD	23	3.94	OVER 2.5· 60% +7%	med
Rhett Lowder	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	23	3.36	OVER 2.5· 58% +2%	med
Jack Perkins ⚠	Tampa Bay RaysTB	14	3.26	—	low
Kevin Gausman	Atlanta BravesATL	30	2.80	UNDER 2.5· 52% -3%	med
Sean Manaea	Baltimore OriolesBAL	16	2.75	OVER 1.5· 63% +7%	med
Jackson Kent ⚠	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	6	2.72	—	low
Walker Buehler	Colorado RockiesCOL	29	2.65	UNDER 2.5· 55% +2%	med
Patrick Sandoval	Texas RangersTEX	11	2.59	UNDER 2.5· 56% +2%	med
Shane Baz	New York MetsNYM	29	2.47	UNDER 2.5· 59% +4%	med
Blade Tidwell ⚠	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	7	2.46	—	low
Ryan Johnson	Seattle MarinersSEA	16	2.46	UNDER 2.5· 59% +7%	med
Bailey Ober	New York YankeesNYY	22	2.42	UNDER 2.5· 57% +7%	med
Logan Gilbert	Los Angeles AngelsLAA	29	2.35	OVER 1.5· 59% +4%	med
Michael Wacha	Houston AstrosHOU	29	2.32	UNDER 2.5· 55% +7%	med
Janson Junk	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	22	2.32	UNDER 2.5· 62% +6%	med
Foster Griffin	Chicago White SoxCWS	29	2.25	UNDER 2.5· 63% +5%	med
Hunter Brown	Kansas City RoyalsKC	17	2.21	OVER 1.5· 56% -0%	med
Cristopher Sánchez	Washington NationalsWSH	30	2.16	UNDER 2.5· 65%	med
Andre Pallante	San Francisco GiantsSF	26	2.12	UNDER 2.5· 66%	med
Davis Martin	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	26	2.08	UNDER 2.5· 61% +7%	med
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Cincinnati RedsCIN	26	2.07	OVER 1.5· 53% -5%	med
Martín Pérez	Chicago CubsCHC	24	2.07	UNDER 2.5· 67%	med
Michael Soroka	Miami MarlinsMIA	18	2.03	OVER 1.5· 52% -4%	med
Griffin Jax	AthleticsATH	20	1.83	UNDER 1.5· 52% -1%	med
Max Fried	Minnesota TwinsMIN	18	1.72	UNDER 1.5· 55% +6%	med
Drew Anderson	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	9	1.72	UNDER 2.5· 65% +7%	low
Jacob Misiorowski	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	27	1.55	UNDER 1.5· 59% -2%	med
Lake Bachar ⚠	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	9	0.80	—	low
Braydon Fisher ⚠	Detroit TigersDET	9	0.40	—	low

BAT

Batter Props

144 batters across 10 posted lineups, best chances first. 1+ Hit and 1+ RBI are the odds he gets at least one tonight. The three marked PICK are our strongest 1+ Hit calls and are graded into the track record. Lineups post 3–4 hours before first pitch, so late games may still be missing.

Batter	Team	#	Opp SP	vs	Hit%	1+ HitHit	1+ RBIRBI
PICK Yandy Díaz	Tampa Bay RaysTB	1	Jack Perkins	RHP	24.7%	75%	35%
PICK Freddie Freeman	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	2	Rhett Lowder	RHP	24.4%	73%	36%
PICK Drake Baldwin	Atlanta BravesATL	1	Kevin Gausman	RHP	24.0%	73%	40%
Jonathan Aranda	Tampa Bay RaysTB	2	Jack Perkins	RHP	23.8%	72%	41%
Michael Harris II	Atlanta BravesATL	4	Kevin Gausman	RHP	24.9%	72%	38%
Liam Hicks	Tampa Bay RaysTB	4	Jack Perkins	RHP	24.4%	72%	40%
Steven Kwan	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	1	Chris Murphy	RHP	23.8%	72%	25%
Chandler Simpson	Tampa Bay RaysTB	6	Jack Perkins	RHP	25.2%	72%	24%
Junior Caminero	Tampa Bay RaysTB	3	Jack Perkins	RHP	23.6%	71%	41%
Chase Meidroth	Chicago White SoxCWS	1	Foster Griffin	LHP	23.8%	71%	34%
Randal Grichuk	Chicago White SoxCWS	2	Foster Griffin	LHP	24.2%	71%	36%
Coby Mayo	Baltimore OriolesBAL	3	Sean Manaea	LHP	24.0%	71%	42%
Josue De Paula	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	1	Rhett Lowder	RHP	22.5%	71%	37%
Alec Burleson	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	3	Blade Tidwell	RHP	24.9%	71%	40%
Ronald Acuña Jr.	Atlanta BravesATL	2	Kevin Gausman	RHP	22.8%	70%	37%
Jung Hoo Lee	San Francisco GiantsSF	4	Andre Pallante	RHP	24.4%	70%	32%
Jeff McNeil	AthleticsATH	2	Griffin Jax	RHP	23.7%	70%	37%
Mookie Betts	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	3	Rhett Lowder	RHP	22.9%	70%	37%
Brett Bateman	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	1	Drew Anderson	RHP	23.8%	70%	31%
Francisco Lindor	New York MetsNYM	1	Shane Baz	RHP	22.5%	70%	35%
Mauricio Dubón	Atlanta BravesATL	5	Kevin Gausman	RHP	23.9%	69%	33%
Luis Arraez	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	4	Jackson Kent	LHP	24.1%	69%	31%
Bo Bichette	New York MetsNYM	3	Shane Baz	RHP	23.2%	69%	33%
Pete Alonso	Baltimore OriolesBAL	2	Sean Manaea	LHP	22.7%	69%	35%

Extra Plays

The best outs and earned-run numbers on the board, same engine as the strikeout model. These sit outside the two-pick card above — they are newer markets for us, and we keep the opponent adjustment small on purpose, because this season's team splits are still mostly random.

Janson Junk OVER 13.5 outs

vs Arizona Diamondbacks · 14.5 base × 1.005 matchup → 14.4

64%fair odds -176

Hunter Brown OVER 15.5 outs

vs Kansas City Royals · 16.5 base × 1.008 matchup → 16.4

63%fair odds -173

Walker Buehler OVER 13.5 outs

vs Colorado Rockies · 14.4 base × 1.012 matchup → 14.4

62%fair odds -163

Michael Soroka UNDER 2.5 ER

vs Miami Marlins · we project 2.03 earned runs

68%fair odds -210

Yoshinobu Yamamoto UNDER 2.5 ER

vs Cincinnati Reds · we project 2.07 earned runs

67%fair odds -202

Martín Pérez UNDER 2.5 ER

vs Chicago Cubs · we project 2.07 earned runs

67%fair odds -202

W-L

Track Record

Every pick we post gets graded the next day against the box score — wins, losses and all — see every one →

All picks 130-81 (62%) · parlay 3-13 · -9.07 units at $100 a card

9/17 8-69/16 7-89/15 9-59/14 11-39/13 9-59/12 8-59/11 11-39/10 8-5

Newest first. Past results do not predict future outcomes.

Every past card (16)

Our own projections · odds shown are fair value with no house cut — not sportsbook prices
Analysis only · not gambling advice · 21+
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