Tonight's Card

Sep 10 Prop Picks

Thu · Sep 10, 2026 5-game slate · 10 starters Strikeouts · outs · earned runs · batters

Live record · since Sep 2 · 16 slates

130-81Picks graded

62%Hit rate

-9.1uUnits · $100/card

3-13Parlay record

Fair prices, not sportsbook prices. No house cut is built in, so your book will pay a little less — shop your own line before betting.

O+U

Tonight's Two

Our two biggest edges over the sportsbook's own price — one over, one under, from whichever market (strikeouts, outs, earned runs or hits) it shows up in. The line and the Mkt Edge are measured against a real book (pinnacle+bovada) wherever one has posted; where none has, we fall back to the nearest half-point line.

Tonight's Two fair odds +165 · 2.65×

Under Outs Jared Jones vs Chicago White Sox

Our Proj13.6 outs

PINNACLE15.5 outs

Mkt Edge+7%

Win %63%

Fair Odds-172

Under Strikeouts Ryan Feltner vs New York Yankees

Our Proj4.1 Ks

PINNACLE4.5 Ks

Mkt Edge+7%

Win %60%

Fair Odds-149

$100 bet · fair odds

$264.76

if both picks hit

+$164.76 profit

Fair-odds payout, not a sportsbook payout. Each pick is priced at the chance we give it (-172 Jones × -149 Feltner → +165 together, decimal 2.65). A real book takes its cut and will pay less than this.

PROPS EDGE · 2026-09-10 · our projection

On the Record

These 13 calls are the record. Everything else on this page is projection and context — useful for finding your own angle, but not scored. Tomorrow morning each row below is graded against the box score and the running track record moves by exactly these results, win or lose. Nothing is added afterwards and nothing quietly drops out.

Player	Source	Market	Pick	Line	Win %
Jared Jones	Tonight's Two	OUTS	Under	15.5	63%
Ryan Feltner	Tonight's Two	K	Under	4.5	60%
Nick Martinez	Extra play	ER	Under	2.5	65%
Zack Wheeler	Extra play	ER	Under	2.5	65%
Jacob deGrom	Extra play	HITS	Over	3.5	60%
Max Fried	Extra play	K	Under	5.5	54%
Nick Martinez	Outs lean	OUTS	Over	16.5	62%
Zack Wheeler	Outs lean	OUTS	Over	15.5	61%
Max Fried	Outs lean	OUTS	Over	15.5	60%
Jacob deGrom	ER lean	ER	Under	2.5	67%
Luis Arraez	Batter	HIT	1+ Hit		73%
Drake Baldwin	Batter	HIT	1+ Hit		73%
Michael Harris II	Batter	HIT	1+ Hit		72%

OVERUNDERtoo closehighest-confidence pick+6% edge over the booktap a row to star it

Strikeouts

All 10 probable starters, most projected strikeouts first — Proj K is tonight's number, Pick is the side against the nearest half-point line.

PitcherSP	Opp	St	K%	Opp K%	Proj KK	Pick	Confidence
Zack Wheeler	Houston AstrosHOU	24	28.5%	21.9%	6.6	UNDER 6.5· 52%	high
Jacob deGrom	Seattle MarinersSEA	27	29.7%	22.4%	6.5	UNDER 6.5· 54% +4%	high
Logan Gilbert	Texas RangersTEX	28	26.6%	22.1%	6.5	UNDER 6.5· 49% +7%	high
Jared Jones	Chicago White SoxCWS	17	27.3%	23.1%	5.8	OVER 5.5· 51% -8%	high
Max Fried	Colorado RockiesCOL	17	24.3%	24.5%	5.5	UNDER 5.5· 54% +2%	high
Cristian Javier ⚠	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	9	21.2%	22.0%	4.1	—	low
Ryan Feltner	New York YankeesNYY	21	16.2%	23.9%	4.1	UNDER 4.5· 60% +7%	high
Nick Martinez	Atlanta BravesATL	27	15.9%	21.9%	3.9	OVER 3.5· 55%	high
Martín Pérez	Tampa Bay RaysTB	23	16.7%	18.9%	3.0	OVER 2.5· 55%	high
Hagen Smith ⚠	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	0	—%	—%	—	—	low

Hits Allowed

Hits we expect each starter to give up — Proj H is the number, the Pick is the side against the nearest half-point line.

PitcherSP	Opp	St	Hit%	Opp Hit%	Proj HH	Pick	Confidence
Nick Martinez	Atlanta BravesATL	27	22.47%	22.07%	5.52	UNDER 5.5· 53%	med
Ryan Feltner	New York YankeesNYY	21	22.71%	21.31%	5.12	UNDER 5.5· 59% +4%	med
Zack Wheeler	Houston AstrosHOU	24	21.01%	21.76%	4.88	OVER 4.5· 54%	med
Martín Pérez	Tampa Bay RaysTB	23	21.36%	21.91%	4.71	OVER 4.5· 51%	med
Logan Gilbert	Texas RangersTEX	28	21.32%	21.6%	4.6	UNDER 4.5· 51% -4%	med
Max Fried	Colorado RockiesCOL	17	20.92%	21.93%	4.46	UNDER 4.5· 54% -1%	med
Cristian Javier ⚠	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	9	22.26%	21.79%	4.34	—	low
Jared Jones	Chicago White SoxCWS	17	21.63%	21.53%	4.29	UNDER 4.5· 57% -2%	med
Jacob deGrom	Seattle MarinersSEA	27	21.59%	21.6%	4.18	OVER 3.5· 60% +3%	med
Hagen Smith ⚠	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	0	—%	—%	—	—	low

OUT

Outs Recorded

How deep into the game we expect each starter to go, in outs (3 outs = 1 inning). Blank where his outings are too up-and-down to price.

PitcherSP	Opp	St	IP/St	Proj OutsOuts	Pick	Confidence
Nick Martinez	Atlanta BravesATL	27	5.93	17.4	OVER 17.5· 51%	high
Logan Gilbert	Texas RangersTEX	28	5.89	16.6	UNDER 17.5· 50% +7%	high
Zack Wheeler	Houston AstrosHOU	24	5.68	16.4	OVER 16.5· 51%	high
Max Fried	Colorado RockiesCOL	17	5.63	16.4	OVER 16.5· 51% +1%	high
Martín Pérez	Tampa Bay RaysTB	23	5.01	15.5	OVER 15.5· 52%	high
Jacob deGrom	Seattle MarinersSEA	27	5.31	15.1	UNDER 16.5· 56% +7%	high
Ryan Feltner	New York YankeesNYY	21	4.89	14.9	UNDER 15.5· 55% -4%	high
Jared Jones	Chicago White SoxCWS	17	4.63	13.6	UNDER 15.5· 63% +7%	high
Cristian Javier ⚠	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	9	4.03	—	—	low
Hagen Smith ⚠	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	0	—	—	—	low

Earned Runs

Runs we expect each starter to give up. Priced against a whole-run line (1.5 / 2.5 / 3.5). This is the noisiest of the three markets, so confidence never goes above med.

PitcherSP	Opp	St	Proj ERER	Pick	Confidence
Ryan Feltner	New York YankeesNYY	21	3.12	UNDER 3.5· 62% +7%	med
Cristian Javier ⚠	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	9	2.58	—	low
Jared Jones	Chicago White SoxCWS	17	2.25	OVER 1.5· 58% +2%	med
Logan Gilbert	Texas RangersTEX	28	2.20	OVER 1.5· 57% +1%	med
Zack Wheeler	Houston AstrosHOU	24	2.18	UNDER 2.5· 65%	med
Nick Martinez	Atlanta BravesATL	27	2.17	UNDER 2.5· 65%	med
Jacob deGrom	Seattle MarinersSEA	27	2.08	OVER 1.5· 54% +2%	med
Martín Pérez	Tampa Bay RaysTB	23	2.00	OVER 1.5· 52%	med
Max Fried	Colorado RockiesCOL	17	1.85	UNDER 1.5· 52% +4%	med
Hagen Smith ⚠	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	0	—	—	low

BAT

Batter Props

54 batters across 3 posted lineups, best chances first. 1+ Hit and 1+ RBI are the odds he gets at least one tonight. The three marked PICK are our strongest 1+ Hit calls and are graded into the track record. Lineups post 3–4 hours before first pitch, so late games may still be missing.

Batter	Team	#	Opp SP	vs	Hit%	1+ HitHit	1+ RBIRBI
PICK Luis Arraez	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	4	Cristian Javier	RHP	26.0%	73%	30%
PICK Drake Baldwin	Atlanta BravesATL	1	Nick Martinez	RHP	24.4%	73%	39%
PICK Michael Harris II	Atlanta BravesATL	4	Nick Martinez	RHP	25.5%	72%	37%
Yandy Díaz	Tampa Bay RaysTB	1	Martín Pérez	LHP	23.9%	71%	38%
Yordan Alvarez	Houston AstrosHOU	2	Zack Wheeler	RHP	24.5%	71%	39%
Jeremy Peña	Houston AstrosHOU	1	Zack Wheeler	RHP	24.0%	70%	35%
Bryce Harper	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	3	Cristian Javier	RHP	23.6%	69%	38%
Trea Turner	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	2	Cristian Javier	RHP	23.1%	69%	33%
Ronald Acuña Jr.	Atlanta BravesATL	2	Nick Martinez	RHP	22.9%	69%	37%
Mauricio Dubón	Atlanta BravesATL	5	Nick Martinez	RHP	24.2%	69%	32%
Ryan Vilade	Tampa Bay RaysTB	2	Martín Pérez	LHP	23.4%	69%	38%
Ezequiel Duran	Texas RangersTEX	3	Logan Gilbert	RHP	23.5%	68%	37%
Chandler Simpson	Tampa Bay RaysTB	5	Martín Pérez	LHP	24.3%	68%	28%
Dominic Canzone	Seattle MarinersSEA	3	Jacob deGrom	RHP	23.1%	68%	37%
Randy Arozarena	Seattle MarinersSEA	2	Jacob deGrom	RHP	22.6%	68%	35%
Brandon Marsh	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	7	Cristian Javier	RHP	24.4%	68%	31%
Junior Caminero	Tampa Bay RaysTB	3	Martín Pérez	LHP	23.0%	67%	32%
Victor Mesa Jr.	Tampa Bay RaysTB	4	Martín Pérez	LHP	23.2%	67%	32%
Matt Olson	Atlanta BravesATL	3	Nick Martinez	RHP	22.0%	67%	36%
Joc Pederson	Texas RangersTEX	1	Logan Gilbert	RHP	21.7%	67%	36%
Julio Rodríguez	Seattle MarinersSEA	5	Jacob deGrom	RHP	22.7%	66%	31%
J.P. Crawford	Seattle MarinersSEA	1	Jacob deGrom	RHP	20.8%	65%	31%
Kyle Schwarber	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	1	Cristian Javier	RHP	20.4%	65%	39%
Justin Crawford	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	8	Cristian Javier	RHP	23.5%	65%	28%

Extra Plays

The best outs and earned-run numbers on the board, same engine as the strikeout model. These sit outside the two-pick card above — they are newer markets for us, and we keep the opponent adjustment small on purpose, because this season's team splits are still mostly random.

Nick Martinez OVER 16.5 outs

vs Atlanta Braves · 18.0 base × 0.997 matchup → 17.4

62%fair odds -166

Zack Wheeler OVER 15.5 outs

vs Houston Astros · 16.6 base × 1.002 matchup → 16.4

61%fair odds -154

Max Fried OVER 15.5 outs

vs Colorado Rockies · 16.5 base × 1.009 matchup → 16.4

60%fair odds -148

Jacob deGrom UNDER 2.5 ER

vs Seattle Mariners · we project 2.08 earned runs

67%fair odds -200

Nick Martinez UNDER 2.5 ER

vs Atlanta Braves · we project 2.17 earned runs

65%fair odds -184

Zack Wheeler UNDER 2.5 ER

vs Houston Astros · we project 2.18 earned runs

65%fair odds -182

W-L

Track Record

Every pick we post gets graded the next day against the box score — wins, losses and all — see every one →

All picks 130-81 (62%) · parlay 3-13 · -9.07 units at $100 a card

9/17 8-69/16 7-89/15 9-59/14 11-39/13 9-59/12 8-59/11 11-39/10 8-5

Newest first. Past results do not predict future outcomes.

Every past card (16)

Our own projections · odds shown are fair value with no house cut — not sportsbook prices
Analysis only · not gambling advice · 21+
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