NFL · Week 2
NFL player prop projections
This week’s prop projections, each with the chance it goes over and the sportsbook’s number beside it.
Graded picks
locked before kickoff · graded against the box score
2–4Record
33%Hit rate
6Pending
0Pushes
| Player | Market | Pick | Ours | Book | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC vs IND · wk 2 | Rec | Under 3.5 | 15% | 42% | — | — |
| Jaylen WaddleWR · DEN vs JAX · wk 2 | Rec | Under 4.5 | 25% | 52% | — | — |
| RJ HarveyRB · DEN vs JAX · wk 2 | RushYds | Over 18.5 | 67% | 50% | — | — |
| Travis KelceTE · KC vs IND · wk 2 | Rec | Under 3.5 | 41% | 58% | — | — |
| Patrick MahomesQB · KC vs IND · wk 2 | RushYds | Over 14.5 | 67% | 51% | — | — |
| Courtland SuttonWR · DEN vs JAX · wk 2 | Rec | Under 3.5 | 47% | 58% | — | — |
| Travis KelceTE · KC vs DEN · wk 1 | RecYds | Under 41.5 | 26% | 50% | 71.0 | Loss |
| RJ HarveyRB · DEN vs KC · wk 1 | RushYds | Over 18.5 | 70% | 50% | 18.0 | Loss |
| Evan EngramTE · DEN vs KC · wk 1 | Rec | Under 2.5 | 39% | 55% | 4.0 | Loss |
| Patrick MahomesQB · KC vs DEN · wk 1 | RushYds | Over 14.5 | 66% | 51% | 23.0 | Win |
| Tyquan ThorntonWR · KC vs DEN · wk 1 | RecYds | Over 19.5 | 64% | 50% | 0.0 | Loss |
| Rashee RiceWR · KC vs DEN · wk 1 | RecYds | Under 56.5 | 36% | 50% | 19.0 | Win |
Passing Yards
top 18 by projection
| Player | Proj | Line | Our Over | Book Over | Diff | Cond. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak PrescottQB1 · DAL vs WAS | 264.9 | 265.5 BV | 44% | 50% | -6 | — |
| Matthew StaffordQB1 · LA vs NYG | 263.3 | 244.5 BV | 52% | 50% | +2 | dome |
| Joe BurrowQB1 · CIN @ HOU | 257.5 | 250.5 BV | 47% | 50% | -3 | — |
| Patrick MahomesQB1 · KC vs IND | 255.6 | 223.5 BV | 58% | 50% | +8 | 10 mph |
| Tyler ShoughQB1 · NO @ BAL | 253.1 | 239.5 BV | 50% | 50% | +0 | 11 mph |
| Caleb WilliamsQB1 · CHI vs MIN | 249.7 | 229.5 BV | 53% | 50% | +3 | 13 mph |
| Jordan LoveQB1 · GB @ NYJ | 235.7 | 256.5 BV | 36% | 50% | -14 | 10 mph |
| C.J. StroudQB1 · HOU vs CIN | 233.8 | 218.5 BV | 51% | 50% | +1 | — |
| Drake MayeQB1 · NE vs PIT | 229.4 | 224.5 BV | 47% | 50% | -3 | 6 mph |
| Brock PurdyQB1 · SF vs MIA | 229.1 | 239.5 BV | 40% | 50% | -10 | 8 mph |
| Baker MayfieldQB1 · TB vs CLE | 220.6 | 216.5 BV | 47% | 50% | -3 | 4 mph |
| Trevor LawrenceQB1 · JAX @ DEN | 220.6 | 223.5 BV | 43% | 50% | -7 | 8 mph |
| Justin HerbertQB1 · LAC vs LV | 219.4 | 226.5 BV | 42% | 50% | -8 | dome |
| Bo NixQB1 · DEN vs JAX | 218.5 | 220.5 BV | 44% | 50% | -6 | 8 mph |
| Jacoby BrissettQB1 · ARI vs SEA | 218.1 | 218.5 BV | 44% | 50% | -6 | — |
| Michael Penix Jr.QB1 · ATL vs CAR | 215.7 | 215.5 | 45% | — | — | — |
| Bryce YoungQB1 · CAR @ ATL | 212.5 | 221.5 BV | 41% | 50% | -9 | — |
| Jalen HurtsQB1 · PHI @ TEN | 209.6 | 209.5 | 45% | — | — | 8 mph |
Rushing Yards
top 18 by projection
| Player | Proj | Line | Our Over | Book Over | Diff | Cond. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick HenryRB1 · BAL vs NO | 98.9 | 93.5 BV | 44% | 50% | -6 | 11 mph |
| Bijan RobinsonRB1 · ATL vs CAR | 91.1 | 81.5 BV | 47% | 50% | -3 | — |
| Jonathan TaylorRB1 · IND @ KC | 79.1 | 84.5 BV | 37% | 50% | -13 | 10 mph |
| Kenneth Walker IIIRB1 · KC vs IND | 77.2 | 82.5 BV | 37% | 50% | -13 | 10 mph |
| Saquon BarkleyRB1 · PHI @ TEN | 75.8 | 76 | 41% | — | — | 8 mph |
| De'Von AchaneRB1 · MIA @ SF | 73.6 | 61.5 BV | 50% | 50% | +0 | 8 mph |
| Kyren WilliamsRB1 · LA vs NYG | 69 | 60.5 BV | 48% | 50% | -2 | dome |
| D'Andre SwiftRB1 · CHI vs MIN | 64.3 | 61.5 BV | 43% | 50% | -7 | 13 mph |
| Christian McCaffreyRB1 · SF vs MIA | 64.1 | 62.5 BV | 42% | 50% | -8 | 8 mph |
| Javonte WilliamsRB1 · DAL vs WAS | 63.8 | 74.5 BV | 32% | 51% | -19 | — |
| Breece HallRB1 · NYJ vs GB | 61.7 | 66.5 BV | 37% | 49% | -12 | 10 mph |
| J.K. DobbinsRB1 · DEN vs JAX | 61.2 | 56.5 BV | 45% | 51% | -6 | 8 mph |
| Ashton JeantyRB1 · LV @ LAC | 59.7 | 64.5 BV | 36% | 50% | -14 | dome |
| Tony PollardRB1 · TEN vs PHI | 59.2 | 59 | 41% | — | — | 8 mph |
| Chase BrownRB1 · CIN @ HOU | 58.8 | 55.5 BV | 44% | 50% | -6 | — |
| Josh JacobsRB · GB @ NYJ | 56.8 | 57 | 41% | — | — | 10 mph |
| Bucky IrvingRB1 · TB vs CLE | 56.3 | 65.5 BV | 32% | 50% | -18 | 4 mph |
| Cam SkatteboRB1 · NYG @ LA | 55.9 | 50.5 BV | 46% | 51% | -5 | dome |
Receiving Yards
top 18 by projection
| Player | Proj | Line | Our Over | Book Over | Diff | Cond. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puka NacuaWR1 · LA vs NYG | 88.1 | 84.5 BV | 41% | 50% | -9 | dome |
| Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR1 · SEA @ ARI | 83.2 | 82.5 BV | 40% | 50% | -10 | — |
| Ja'Marr ChaseWR1 · CIN @ HOU | 73.3 | 77.5 BV | 37% | 50% | -13 | — |
| George PickensWR2 · DAL vs WAS | 73.1 | 62.5 BV | 47% | 50% | -3 | — |
| Chris OlaveWR1 · NO @ BAL | 72.2 | 69.5 BV | 41% | 50% | -9 | 11 mph |
| CeeDee LambWR1 · DAL vs WAS | 71.9 | 76.5 BV | 36% | 50% | -14 | — |
| Nico CollinsWR1 · HOU vs CIN | 69.7 | 69.5 | 40% | — | — | — |
| Drake LondonWR1 · ATL vs CAR | 67.9 | 56.5 BV | 48% | 50% | -2 | — |
| Zay FlowersWR1 · BAL vs NO | 67.8 | 68 | 39% | — | — | 11 mph |
| Malik NabersWR1 · NYG @ LA | 63.3 | 63.5 BV | 39% | 50% | -11 | dome |
| Christian WatsonWR1 · GB @ NYJ | 61.3 | 61.5 BV | 39% | 50% | -11 | 10 mph |
| Tee HigginsWR2 · CIN @ HOU | 61.3 | 51.5 BV | 48% | 50% | -2 | — |
| Terry McLaurinWR1 · WAS @ DAL | 60.6 | 53.5 BV | 45% | 50% | -5 | — |
| Justin JeffersonWR1 · MIN @ CHI | 60.1 | 78.5 BV | 27% | 50% | -23 | 13 mph |
| Jalen CokerWR2 · CAR @ ATL | 60.1 | 50.5 BV | 48% | 50% | -2 | — |
| Tetairoa McMillanWR1 · CAR @ ATL | 58.6 | 57.5 BV | 40% | 50% | -10 | — |
| Michael WilsonWR2 · ARI vs SEA | 58.4 | 39.5 BV | 57% | 50% | +7 | — |
| Parker WashingtonWR2 · JAX @ DEN | 58.3 | 59.5 BV | 38% | 50% | -12 | 8 mph |
Receptions
top 18 by projection
| Player | Proj | Line | Our Over | Book Over | Diff | Cond. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puka NacuaWR1 · LA vs NYG | 6.8 | 6.5 BV | 47% | 55% | -8 | dome |
| Ja'Marr ChaseWR1 · CIN @ HOU | 6.2 | 6.5 BV | 39% | 49% | -10 | — |
| Trey McBrideTE1 · ARI vs SEA | 6.2 | 6.5 BV | 39% | 51% | -12 | — |
| Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR1 · SEA @ ARI | 6.2 | 6.5 BV | 39% | 49% | -10 | — |
| Chris OlaveWR1 · NO @ BAL | 5.7 | 5.5 BV | 46% | 51% | -5 | 11 mph |
| CeeDee LambWR1 · DAL vs WAS | 5.2 | 5.5 BV | 38% | 54% | -16 | — |
| Malik NabersWR1 · NYG @ LA | 5.2 | 5.5 BV | 38% | 51% | -13 | dome |
| Wan'Dale RobinsonWR2 · TEN vs PHI | 5 | 5 | 43% | — | — | 8 mph |
| Rashee RiceWR1 · KC vs IND | 5 | 4.5 BV | 50% | 54% | -4 | 10 mph |
| Drake LondonWR1 · ATL vs CAR | 4.9 | 4.5 BV | 48% | 53% | -5 | — |
| Garrett WilsonWR1 · NYJ vs GB | 4.9 | 5.5 BV | 34% | 53% | -19 | 10 mph |
| Justin JeffersonWR1 · MIN @ CHI | 4.8 | 6.5 BV | 20% | 42% | -23 | 13 mph |
| Nico CollinsWR1 · HOU vs CIN | 4.8 | 5 | 39% | — | — | — |
| Stefon DiggsWR2 · WAS @ DAL | 4.7 | 4.5 BV | 45% | 53% | -8 | — |
| George PickensWR2 · DAL vs WAS | 4.7 | 4.5 BV | 45% | 51% | -6 | — |
| Michael WilsonWR2 · ARI vs SEA | 4.7 | 3.5 BV | 61% | 53% | +8 | — |
| Mike EvansWR1 · SF vs MIA | 4.6 | 3.5 BV | 59% | 55% | +4 | 8 mph |
| A.J. BrownWR · NE vs PIT | 4.6 | 4.5 | 44% | — | — | 6 mph |
Milestone watch
career and season marks within reach · players starting this week first
| Player | Milestone | Has | Needs |
|---|---|---|---|
| WK Jayden DanielsQB · WAS | 5,000 career passing yards | 4,994 | 6 proj 204.9 |
| WK Chase BrownRB · CIN | 1,000 career receiving yards | 975 | 25 proj 24.9 |
| WK Troy FranklinWR · DEN | 1,000 career receiving yards | 972 | 28 proj 34.7 |
| WK CeeDee LambWR · DAL | 7,500 career receiving yards | 7,460 | 40 proj 71.9 |
| WK Kirk CousinsQB · LV | 1,000 career rushing yards | 959 | 41 |
| WK Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI | 50 career passing touchdowns | 49 | 1 |
| WK Rico DowdleRB · PIT | 100 career receptions | 97 | 3 proj 2 |
| WK Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB · JAX | 1,000 career rushing yards | 943 | 57 proj 40.3 |
| WK Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI | 1,000 career rushing yards | 942 | 58 proj 24 |
| WK Devin SingletaryRB · NYG | 5,000 career rushing yards | 4,939 | 61 proj 30.3 |
| WK Kirk CousinsQB · LV | 45,000 career passing yards | 44,860 | 140 proj 190.4 |
| WK Kalif RaymondWR · CHI | 10 career receiving touchdowns | 9 | 1 |
| WK Jakobi MeyersWR · JAX | 25 career receiving touchdowns | 24 | 1 |
| WK D'Andre SwiftRB · CHI | 10 career receiving touchdowns | 9 | 1 |
| WK Chuba HubbardRB · CAR | 25 career rushing touchdowns | 24 | 1 |
| WK Wan'Dale RobinsonWR · TEN | 10 career receiving touchdowns | 9 | 1 |
| WK Breece HallRB · NYJ | 10 career receiving touchdowns | 9 | 1 |
| WK Kayshon BoutteWR · HOU | 10 career receiving touchdowns | 9 | 1 |
| WK Bryce YoungQB · CAR | 10 career rushing touchdowns | 9 | 1 |
| WK Malik NabersWR · NYG | 10 career receiving touchdowns | 9 | 1 |
| Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · DET | 50 career receiving touchdowns | 48 | 2 |
| Khalil ShakirWR · BUF | 2,500 career receiving yards | 2,400 | 100 |
| Kenny PickettQB · CAR | 5,000 career passing yards | 4,953 | 47 |
| KaVontae TurpinWR · DAL | 1,000 career receiving yards | 960 | 40 |
| Daniel BellingerTE · TEN | 1,000 career receiving yards | 941 | 59 |
| Ameer AbdullahRB · JAX | 10 career rushing touchdowns | 9 | 1 |
| Chris MooreWR · BAL | 10 career receiving touchdowns | 9 | 1 |
| Noah GrayTE · KC | 10 career receiving touchdowns | 9 | 1 |
| James CookRB · BUF | 10 career receiving touchdowns | 9 | 1 |
| Justice HillRB · BAL | 1,000 career receiving yards | 916 | 84 |
72 projections · stats via nflverse · lines via Bovada · wind via Open-Meteo · updated Sep 19, 2026 at 1:49 PM ET
Game lines — spreads and totals
Context only — our spreads and totals do not beat the closing line.
| Game | Market | Model | Gap | Total | Model | Wind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR @ ATLSun Sep 20 · 13:00 ET | CAR -2.5 | ATL -4.7 | -7.2 | 43.5 | 48.8 | — |
| NO @ BALSun Sep 20 · 13:00 ET | BAL -8.5 | BAL -6.8 | +1.7 | 46.5 | 48.6 | 11 mph |
| MIN @ CHISun Sep 20 · 13:00 ET | CHI -4.5 | CHI -2.6 | +1.9 | 47.5 | 52.1 | 13 mph |
| CIN @ HOUSun Sep 20 · 13:00 ET | HOU -2.5 | HOU -5.2 | -2.7 | 45.5 | 50.9 | — |
| PIT @ NESun Sep 20 · 13:00 ET | NE -5.5 | NE -4.2 | +1.3 | 41.5 | 42.2 | 6 mph |
| GB @ NYJSun Sep 20 · 13:00 ET | GB -3.5 | NYJ -0.0 | -3.5 | 44.5 | 46.8 | 10 mph |
| CLE @ TBSun Sep 20 · 13:00 ET | TB -8.5 | TB -6.0 | +2.5 | 41.5 | 45.4 | 4 mph |
| PHI @ TENSun Sep 20 · 13:00 ET | PHI -7.0 | PHI -4.3 | -2.7 | 39.5 | 43.5 | 8 mph |
| JAX @ DENSun Sep 20 · 16:05 ET | DEN -2.5 | JAX -2.1 | +4.6 | 45.5 | 45.7 | 8 mph |
| LV @ LACSun Sep 20 · 16:05 ET | LAC -6.5 | LAC -3.6 | +2.9 | 43.5 | 42.2 | — |
| SEA @ ARISun Sep 20 · 16:25 ET | SEA -3.5 | SEA -2.6 | -0.9 | 40.5 | 44.7 | — |
| WAS @ DALSun Sep 20 · 16:25 ET | DAL -3.5 | DAL -1.6 | +1.9 | 50.5 | 52.0 | — |
| MIA @ SFSun Sep 20 · 16:25 ET | SF -13.5 | SF -9.1 | +4.4 | 44.5 | 45.2 | 8 mph |
| IND @ KCSun Sep 20 · 20:20 ET | KC -6.0 | KC -6.0 | +0.0 | 46.5 | 48.5 | 10 mph |
| NYG @ LAMon Sep 21 · 20:15 ET | LA -7.0 | LA -4.7 | +2.3 | 48.5 | 47.2 | — |
| ATL @ GBThu Sep 24 · 20:15 ET | GB -6.5 | GB -3.3 | +3.2 | 46.5 | 46.7 | 4 mph |
| LAC @ BUFSun Sep 27 · 13:00 ET | BUF -4.5 | BUF -7.4 | -2.9 | 50.5 | 50.8 | 14 mph |
| CAR @ CLESun Sep 27 · 13:00 ET | CAR -2.5 | CLE -2.0 | -4.5 | 40.5 | 47.8 | 16 mph |
| NYJ @ DETSun Sep 27 · 13:00 ET | DET -7.5 | DET -6.2 | +1.3 | 48.5 | 51.6 | — |
| HOU @ INDSun Sep 27 · 13:00 ET | HOU -2.5 | HOU -0.6 | -1.9 | 45.5 | 50.9 | — |
| NE @ JAXSun Sep 27 · 13:00 ET | JAX -2.5 | JAX -3.9 | -1.4 | 45.5 | 44.9 | 5 mph |
| KC @ MIASun Sep 27 · 13:00 ET | KC -8.5 | KC -3.8 | -4.7 | 44.5 | 44.1 | 9 mph |
| TEN @ NYGSun Sep 27 · 13:00 ET | NYG -5.5 | NYG -6.7 | -1.2 | 43.5 | 45.8 | 7 mph |
| CIN @ PITSun Sep 27 · 13:00 ET | CIN -2.5 | PIT -3.6 | -6.1 | 45.5 | 49.5 | 5 mph |
| SEA @ WASSun Sep 27 · 13:00 ET | SEA -2.5 | SEA -3.5 | +1.0 | 41.5 | 45.9 | 7 mph |
| ARI @ SFSun Sep 27 · 16:05 ET | SF -8.5 | SF -6.1 | +2.4 | 47.5 | 46.7 | 4 mph |
| MIN @ TBSun Sep 27 · 16:05 ET | TB -1.5 | MIN -0.4 | +1.9 | 45.5 | 48.0 | 8 mph |
| BAL @ DALSun Sep 27 · 16:25 ET | BAL -3.0 | BAL -5.2 | +2.2 | 52.5 | 53.9 | — |
| LV @ NOSun Sep 27 · 16:25 ET | NO -3.0 | NO -3.6 | -0.6 | 45.5 | 43.9 | — |
| LA @ DENSun Sep 27 · 20:20 ET | LA -2.5 | DEN -0.4 | -2.9 | 46.5 | 45.7 | 15 mph |
| PHI @ CHIMon Sep 28 · 20:15 ET | CHI -1.5 | CHI -3.6 | -2.1 | 47.5 | 51.4 | 5 mph |
Notes
- Projections, not advice. Over % is our estimated chance; it is checked against results, not against sportsbook prices.
- Graded picks are the week’s largest disagreements with Bovada, locked before kickoff and graded after. Early sample — treat the record as an experiment.
- Diff is our over % minus the book’s over % with its margin removed. BV marks a Bovada line; other lines are our own.
- Game lines are shown for context only.
- Odds and percentages are fair value, not sportsbook prices.
Analysis only · not gambling advice · 21+
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Tonight's MLB card · Track record · Calculators · Learn · How it works · Privacy Policy · Terms of Service · If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER