Tonight's Card

Sep 11 Prop Picks

Fri · Sep 11, 2026 15-game slate · 27 starters Strikeouts · outs · earned runs · batters

Live record · since Sep 2 · 16 slates

130-81Picks graded

62%Hit rate

-9.1uUnits · $100/card

3-13Parlay record

Fair prices, not sportsbook prices. No house cut is built in, so your book will pay a little less — shop your own line before betting.

O+U

Tonight's Two

Our two biggest edges over the sportsbook's own price — one over, one under, from whichever market (strikeouts, outs, earned runs or hits) it shows up in. The line and the Mkt Edge are measured against a real book (pinnacle+bovada) wherever one has posted; where none has, we fall back to the nearest half-point line.

Tonight's Two fair odds +153 · 2.53×

Under Outs Anthony Kay vs St. Louis Cardinals

Our Proj14.6 outs

PINNACLE15.5 outs

Mkt Edge+6%

Win %62%

Fair Odds-166

Under Hits Yusei Kikuchi vs Washington Nationals

Our Proj4.9 hits

PINNACLE5.5 hits

Mkt Edge+7%

Win %63%

Fair Odds-173

$100 bet · fair odds

$253.17

if both picks hit

+$153.17 profit

Fair-odds payout, not a sportsbook payout. Each pick is priced at the chance we give it (-166 Kay × -173 Kikuchi → +153 together, decimal 2.53). A real book takes its cut and will pay less than this.

PROPS EDGE · 2026-09-11 · our projection

On the Record

These 14 calls are the record. Everything else on this page is projection and context — useful for finding your own angle, but not scored. Tomorrow morning each row below is graded against the box score and the running track record moves by exactly these results, win or lose. Nothing is added afterwards and nothing quietly drops out.

Player	Source	Market	Pick	Line	Win %
Anthony Kay	Tonight's Two	OUTS	Under	15.5	62%
Yusei Kikuchi	Tonight's Two	HITS	Under	5.5	63%
Chris Bassitt	Extra play	OUTS	Under	17.5	62%
Parker Messick	Extra play	ER	Under	2.5	66%
George Kirby	Extra play	HITS	Over	5.5	61%
Sonny Gray	Extra play	ER	Under	2.5	64%
Taj Bradley	Outs lean	OUTS	Over	15.5	64%
Aaron Nola	Outs lean	OUTS	Over	15.5	63%
Carlos Rodón	Outs lean	OUTS	Over	13.5	61%
Nolan McLean	ER lean	ER	Under	2.5	65%
Jeffrey Springs	ER lean	ER	Under	3.5	63%
Jeff McNeil	Batter	HIT	1+ Hit		73%
Brett Bateman	Batter	HIT	1+ Hit		73%
Yandy Díaz	Batter	HIT	1+ Hit		73%

OVERUNDERtoo closehighest-confidence pick+6% edge over the booktap a row to star it

Strikeouts

All 27 probable starters, most projected strikeouts first — Proj K is tonight's number, Pick is the side against the nearest half-point line.

PitcherSP	Opp	St	K%	Opp K%	Proj KK	Pick	Confidence
Cade Cavalli	Los Angeles AngelsLAA	30	29.4%	24.9%	7.3	OVER 6.5· 56% +1%	high
Chris Sale	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	25	29.7%	22.2%	7.2	UNDER 7.5· 58% +4%	high
Nolan McLean	New York YankeesNYY	28	24.5%	24.2%	6.5	UNDER 6.5· 54% +1%	high
Taj Bradley	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	28	27.2%	21.1%	6.3	OVER 5.5· 48% +7%	high
Parker Messick	Minnesota TwinsMIN	28	26.5%	22.3%	6.2	OVER 5.5· 48% +7%	high
Shota Imanaga	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	28	24.1%	25.3%	6.0	UNDER 6.5· 60% +5%	high
Matthew Liberatore	Chicago White SoxCWS	28	25.0%	24.3%	5.8	OVER 5.5· 50% +3%	high
Aaron Nola	Atlanta BravesATL	29	24.8%	22.0%	5.7	UNDER 5.5· 50% -1%	high
Drew Rasmussen	Houston AstrosHOU	27	24.9%	22.0%	5.6	UNDER 5.5· 53% +1%	high
Carlos Rodón	New York MetsNYM	13	25.2%	23.2%	5.2	OVER 4.5· 60%	med
Mason Adams ⚠	Detroit TigersDET	3	24.8%	22.7%	5.1	—	low
Yusei Kikuchi	Washington NationalsWSH	10	22.3%	23.9%	5.1	UNDER 5.5· 58% +7%	med
Sonny Gray	Kansas City RoyalsKC	26	22.2%	20.5%	4.9	UNDER 5.5· 61% +6%	high
Dustin May ⚠	Cincinnati RedsCIN	27	22.1%	25.1%	4.9	—	low
George Kirby	AthleticsATH	27	19.6%	21.6%	4.8	OVER 4.5· 51% -3%	high
Framber Valdez	Colorado RockiesCOL	28	16.9%	24.6%	4.7	UNDER 4.5· 49% +7%	high
Anthony Molina ⚠	San Diego PadresSD	2	24.1%	21.6%	4.7	—	low
Robbie Ray	San Francisco GiantsSF	27	19.5%	23.3%	4.5	UNDER 4.5· 54% +3%	high
Jeffrey Springs	Seattle MarinersSEA	26	18.4%	24.1%	4.4	OVER 3.5· 63% +5%	high
Max Scherzer	Baltimore OriolesBAL	14	19.0%	23.5%	4.1	UNDER 5.5· 62% +7%	med
Andrew Abbott	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	29	18.9%	21.6%	4.1	OVER 3.5· 58% +0%	high
Seth Lugo	Boston Red SoxBOS	29	17.1%	21.5%	3.8	OVER 3.5· 51% -8%	high
Anthony Kay	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	27	19.7%	19.7%	3.8	UNDER 4.5· 65% +7%	high
Ryan Gusto ⚠	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	15	19.3%	21.0%	3.7	—	low
Chris Bassitt	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	15	17.1%	19.3%	3.6	UNDER 3.5· 52% -2%	high
Wilber Dotel ⚠	Chicago CubsCHC	0	—%	—%	—	—	low
Miguel Ullola ⚠	Tampa Bay RaysTB	0	—%	—%	—	—	low

Hits Allowed

Hits we expect each starter to give up — Proj H is the number, the Pick is the side against the nearest half-point line.

PitcherSP	Opp	St	Hit%	Opp Hit%	Proj HH	Pick	Confidence
George Kirby	AthleticsATH	27	24.62%	21.65%	6.38	OVER 5.5· 61% +4%	med
Seth Lugo	Boston Red SoxBOS	29	24.32%	21.74%	5.9	OVER 5.5· 54% -0%	med
Chris Bassitt	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	15	23.9%	22.39%	5.9	OVER 5.5· 54% +5%	med
Sonny Gray	Kansas City RoyalsKC	26	21.94%	21.85%	5.53	UNDER 5.5· 52% -2%	med
Aaron Nola	Atlanta BravesATL	29	23.17%	22.08%	5.5	UNDER 5.5· 53%	med
Framber Valdez	Colorado RockiesCOL	28	22.34%	21.74%	5.46	UNDER 5.5· 54% +2%	med
Jeffrey Springs	Seattle MarinersSEA	26	22.83%	21.07%	5.19	UNDER 5.5· 58% +3%	med
Chris Sale	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	25	20.84%	21.59%	5.18	UNDER 5.5· 58%	med
Matthew Liberatore	Chicago White SoxCWS	28	23.86%	21.45%	5.04	OVER 4.5· 57% +5%	med
Andrew Abbott	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	29	21.92%	21.56%	4.94	OVER 4.5· 55% -1%	med
Yusei Kikuchi	Washington NationalsWSH	10	22.56%	21.9%	4.9	UNDER 5.5· 63% +7%	med
Shota Imanaga	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	28	21.82%	21.63%	4.89	OVER 4.5· 54% +4%	med
Taj Bradley	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	28	20.5%	21.63%	4.85	OVER 4.5· 53% -0%	med
Anthony Kay	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	27	22.12%	21.53%	4.84	OVER 4.5· 53% -5%	med
Parker Messick	Minnesota TwinsMIN	28	20.22%	21.46%	4.74	OVER 4.5· 51% -6%	med
Cade Cavalli	Los Angeles AngelsLAA	30	21.45%	21.34%	4.66	UNDER 4.5· 50% -2%	med
Nolan McLean	New York YankeesNYY	28	19.4%	21.02%	4.58	UNDER 4.5· 52% +6%	med
Ryan Gusto ⚠	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	15	23.11%	22.2%	4.46	—	low
Drew Rasmussen	Houston AstrosHOU	27	19.99%	21.63%	4.3	UNDER 4.5· 56% +7%	med
Robbie Ray	San Francisco GiantsSF	27	20.76%	21.59%	4.29	UNDER 4.5· 57% +3%	med
Max Scherzer	Baltimore OriolesBAL	14	21.57%	21.12%	4.29	UNDER 4.5· 57% +3%	med
Mason Adams ⚠	Detroit TigersDET	3	22.36%	21.57%	4.24	—	low
Dustin May ⚠	Cincinnati RedsCIN	27	22.51%	20.9%	4.2	—	low
Carlos Rodón	New York MetsNYM	13	19.23%	21.46%	3.86	OVER 3.5· 54%	med
Anthony Molina ⚠	San Diego PadresSD	2	21.41%	21.28%	3.85	—	low
Wilber Dotel ⚠	Chicago CubsCHC	0	—%	—%	—	—	low
Miguel Ullola ⚠	Tampa Bay RaysTB	0	—%	—%	—	—	low

OUT

Outs Recorded

How deep into the game we expect each starter to go, in outs (3 outs = 1 inning). Blank where his outings are too up-and-down to price.

PitcherSP	Opp	St	IP/St	Proj OutsOuts	Pick	Confidence
Sonny Gray	Kansas City RoyalsKC	26	5.8	17.8	OVER 17.5· 55% -3%	high
Chris Sale	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	25	6.0	17.7	UNDER 18.5· 57% +0%	high
Framber Valdez	Colorado RockiesCOL	28	5.63	17.4	UNDER 18.5· 59% +0%	high
Parker Messick	Minnesota TwinsMIN	28	5.96	17.2	UNDER 17.5· 52% +4%	high
George Kirby	AthleticsATH	27	5.9	16.9	UNDER 17.5· 50% +7%	high
Drew Rasmussen	Houston AstrosHOU	27	5.68	16.7	UNDER 17.5· 57% +7%	high
Nolan McLean	New York YankeesNYY	28	5.77	16.6	UNDER 17.5· 58% +7%	high
Taj Bradley	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	28	5.69	16.5	UNDER 17.5· 58% +7%	high
Cade Cavalli	Los Angeles AngelsLAA	30	5.29	16.4	UNDER 17.5· 54% +7%	high
Aaron Nola	Atlanta BravesATL	29	5.34	16.3	UNDER 16.5· 51% +1%	high
Chris Bassitt	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	15	5.0	16.0	UNDER 17.5· 62% +7%	high
Seth Lugo	Boston Red SoxBOS	29	5.48	15.7	OVER 15.5· 55%	high
Shota Imanaga	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	28	5.58	15.5	UNDER 17.5· 55% +7%	high
Jeffrey Springs	Seattle MarinersSEA	26	5.0	15.4	OVER 15.5· 51%	high
Matthew Liberatore	Chicago White SoxCWS	28	4.96	15.2	UNDER 15.5· 52% +1%	high
Robbie Ray	San Francisco GiantsSF	27	5.37	15.2	UNDER 15.5· 51%	high
Yusei Kikuchi	Washington NationalsWSH	10	4.9	14.7	UNDER 15.5· 56% +5%	med
Andrew Abbott	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	29	5.25	14.7	OVER 14.5· 55%	high
Anthony Molina ⚠	San Diego PadresSD	2	5.0	14.6	—	low
Anthony Kay	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	27	4.96	14.6	UNDER 15.5· 62% +6%	high
Max Scherzer	Baltimore OriolesBAL	14	4.48	14.4	OVER 14.5· 51%	med
Carlos Rodón	New York MetsNYM	13	4.92	14.2	UNDER 14.5· 53%	med
Mason Adams ⚠	Detroit TigersDET	3	4.57	14.0	—	low
Dustin May ⚠	Cincinnati RedsCIN	27	4.9	—	—	low
Ryan Gusto ⚠	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	15	4.2	—	—	low
Wilber Dotel ⚠	Chicago CubsCHC	0	—	—	—	low
Miguel Ullola ⚠	Tampa Bay RaysTB	0	—	—	—	low

Earned Runs

Runs we expect each starter to give up. Priced against a whole-run line (1.5 / 2.5 / 3.5). This is the noisiest of the three markets, so confidence never goes above med.

PitcherSP	Opp	St	Proj ERER	Pick	Confidence
Jeffrey Springs	Seattle MarinersSEA	26	3.09	UNDER 3.5· 63% +7%	med
Seth Lugo	Boston Red SoxBOS	29	2.98	OVER 2.5· 52% -4%	med
Matthew Liberatore	Chicago White SoxCWS	28	2.83	UNDER 2.5· 51% -5%	med
George Kirby	AthleticsATH	27	2.83	UNDER 2.5· 51% +1%	med
Aaron Nola	Atlanta BravesATL	29	2.78	UNDER 2.5· 52%	med
Chris Bassitt	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	15	2.75	UNDER 2.5· 52% +2%	med
Max Scherzer	Baltimore OriolesBAL	14	2.67	UNDER 2.5· 54% -4%	med
Yusei Kikuchi	Washington NationalsWSH	10	2.55	UNDER 2.5· 56% +4%	med
Framber Valdez	Colorado RockiesCOL	28	2.55	UNDER 2.5· 56% -3%	med
Andrew Abbott	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	29	2.49	UNDER 2.5· 58% +5%	med
Taj Bradley	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	28	2.42	UNDER 2.5· 59% +1%	med
Anthony Kay	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	27	2.41	UNDER 2.5· 59% +1%	med
Shota Imanaga	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	28	2.35	UNDER 2.5· 60% +1%	med
Dustin May ⚠	Cincinnati RedsCIN	27	2.21	—	low
Nolan McLean	New York YankeesNYY	28	2.12	UNDER 2.5· 60% +7%	med
Ryan Gusto ⚠	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	15	2.06	—	low
Sonny Gray	Kansas City RoyalsKC	26	2.05	UNDER 2.5· 64% +7%	med
Mason Adams ⚠	Detroit TigersDET	3	1.98	—	low
Robbie Ray	San Francisco GiantsSF	27	1.94	OVER 1.5· 52% -5%	med
Drew Rasmussen	Houston AstrosHOU	27	1.90	OVER 1.5· 51% -3%	med
Cade Cavalli	Los Angeles AngelsLAA	30	1.88	OVER 1.5· 50% +1%	med
Parker Messick	Minnesota TwinsMIN	28	1.85	UNDER 2.5· 66% +7%	med
Carlos Rodón	New York MetsNYM	13	1.85	UNDER 1.5· 50%	med
Anthony Molina ⚠	San Diego PadresSD	2	1.82	—	low
Chris Sale	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	25	1.77	UNDER 1.5· 52%	med
Wilber Dotel ⚠	Chicago CubsCHC	0	—	—	low
Miguel Ullola ⚠	Tampa Bay RaysTB	0	—	—	low

BAT

Batter Props

267 batters across 15 posted lineups, best chances first. 1+ Hit and 1+ RBI are the odds he gets at least one tonight. The three marked PICK are our strongest 1+ Hit calls and are graded into the track record. Lineups post 3–4 hours before first pitch, so late games may still be missing.

Batter	Team	#	Opp SP	vs	Hit%	1+ HitHit	1+ RBIRBI
PICK Jeff McNeil	AthleticsATH	2	George Kirby	RHP	23.7%	73%	36%
PICK Brett Bateman	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	1	Chris Bassitt	RHP	23.5%	73%	32%
PICK Yandy Díaz	Tampa Bay RaysTB	1	Miguel Ullola	RHP	24.5%	73%	35%
Chase Meidroth	Chicago White SoxCWS	1	Matthew Liberatore	LHP	23.4%	73%	34%
Drake Baldwin	Atlanta BravesATL	1	Aaron Nola	RHP	23.8%	73%	38%
Henry Bolte	AthleticsATH	1	George Kirby	RHP	22.8%	73%	30%
Otto Lopez	Miami MarlinsMIA	2	Blake Snell	RHP	24.5%	72%	31%
Jake McCarthy	Colorado RockiesCOL	1	Framber Valdez	LHP	23.8%	72%	38%
Michael Harris II	Atlanta BravesATL	4	Aaron Nola	RHP	24.5%	72%	36%
Jackson Chourio	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	1	Andrew Abbott	LHP	23.6%	71%	34%
Tommy Edman	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	1	Ryan Gusto	RHP	22.8%	71%	34%
Nathan Lukes	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	5	Chris Bassitt	RHP	24.1%	71%	31%
Kevin McGonigle	Detroit TigersDET	1	Mason Adams	RHP	23.1%	71%	33%
Fernando Tatis Jr.	San Diego PadresSD	1	Anthony Molina	RHP	23.5%	71%	34%
Gabriel Moreno	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	3	MacKenzie Gore	RHP	24.0%	70%	35%
Roman Anthony	Boston Red SoxBOS	1	Seth Lugo	RHP	21.7%	70%	32%
Brady House	Washington NationalsWSH	3	Yusei Kikuchi	LHP	23.6%	70%	35%
Randy Arozarena	Seattle MarinersSEA	2	Jeffrey Springs	LHP	22.9%	70%	32%
Konnor Griffin	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	1	Shota Imanaga	LHP	23.0%	70%	35%
Liam Hicks	Tampa Bay RaysTB	4	Miguel Ullola	RHP	24.2%	70%	38%
Bobby Witt Jr.	Kansas City RoyalsKC	2	Sonny Gray	RHP	23.4%	70%	32%
James Wood	Washington NationalsWSH	1	Yusei Kikuchi	LHP	22.5%	70%	35%
Gleyber Torres	Detroit TigersDET	2	Mason Adams	RHP	23.1%	70%	32%
Ronald Acuña Jr.	Atlanta BravesATL	2	Aaron Nola	RHP	22.5%	70%	36%

Extra Plays

The best outs and earned-run numbers on the board, same engine as the strikeout model. These sit outside the two-pick card above — they are newer markets for us, and we keep the opponent adjustment small on purpose, because this season's team splits are still mostly random.

Taj Bradley OVER 15.5 outs

vs Cleveland Guardians · 16.9 base × 0.996 matchup → 16.5

64%fair odds -179

Aaron Nola OVER 15.5 outs

vs Atlanta Braves · 16.6 base × 0.997 matchup → 16.3

63%fair odds -172

Carlos Rodón OVER 13.5 outs

vs New York Mets · 14.4 base × 0.999 matchup → 14.2

61%fair odds -159

Sonny Gray UNDER 2.5 ER

vs Kansas City Royals · we project 2.05 earned runs

67%fair odds -203

Nolan McLean UNDER 2.5 ER

vs New York Yankees · we project 2.12 earned runs

65%fair odds -190

Jeffrey Springs UNDER 3.5 ER

vs Seattle Mariners · we project 3.09 earned runs

63%fair odds -174

W-L

Track Record

Every pick we post gets graded the next day against the box score — wins, losses and all — see every one →

All picks 130-81 (62%) · parlay 3-13 · -9.07 units at $100 a card

9/17 8-69/16 7-89/15 9-59/14 11-39/13 9-59/12 8-59/11 11-39/10 8-5

Newest first. Past results do not predict future outcomes.

Every past card (16)

Our own projections · odds shown are fair value with no house cut — not sportsbook prices
Analysis only · not gambling advice · 21+
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