Today's Card

Sep 3 Prop Picks

Thu · Sep 3, 2026 9-game slate · 18 starters Strikeouts · outs · earned runs · batters

These are our numbers, not a sportsbook's. Every price on this page is a fair price — what the bet is worth with no house cut built in. A real book keeps a margin, so it will pay less than what you see here. Shop your own book's line before betting.

O+U

Tonight's Two

Our two biggest edges over the sportsbook's own price — one over, one under, from whichever market (strikeouts, outs, earned runs or hits) it shows up in. The line and the Mkt Edge are measured against a real book (bovada) wherever one has posted; where none has, we fall back to the nearest half-point line.

Tonight's Two fair odds +203 · 3.03×

Over
            Strikeouts
            Cal Quantrill
            vs Tampa Bay Rays
Our Proj4.2 Ks
Line3.5 Ks
Edge+0.7
Win %58%
Fair Odds-137

Under
            Strikeouts
            Jack Perkins
            vs Seattle Mariners
Our Proj5.3 Ks
Line5.5 Ks
Edge-0.2
Win %57%
Fair Odds-133

$100 bet · fair odds

$302.94

if both picks hit

+$202.94 profit

Fair-odds payout, not a sportsbook payout. Each pick is priced at the chance we give it (-137 Quantrill × -133 Perkins → +203 together, decimal 3.03). A real book takes its cut and will pay less than this.

PROPS EDGE · 2026-09-03 · our projection

Strikeouts

All 18 probable starters, most projected strikeouts first. Proj K is how many we expect him to get tonight; the Pick column is the side we'd take against the nearest half-point line, with our win chance beside it.

How we get the number

K% is how often the pitcher strikes a batter out over his own starts. Opp K% is how often that lineup strikes out against this hand. Adj K% blends the two — a strikeout pitcher facing a contact lineup lands between them, not at either extreme. Multiply that by BF/St (batters he faces in a typical start) and you get Proj K. Win chance comes from how far past the line the projection sits, scored against 2,130 completed 2026 starts, so it reflects how often we've actually been right by that margin — not a textbook curve.

we like the OVERwe like the UNDERtoo close to callbright = strong pick, faded = slight edge+6% = our edge over the book's pricetap a row to star it

PitcherSP	Opp	St	K%	Opp K%	Adj K%	BF/St	Proj KK	Pick	Confidence
Tarik Skubal	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	21	29.1%	19.6%	25.6%	23.6	6.1	OVER 5.5· 56%	high
Hunter Brown	Chicago White SoxCWS	15	24.5%	23.1%	26.1%	22.7	6.0	OVER 5.5· 55%	high
Logan Henderson	Chicago CubsCHC	14	27.0%	21.5%	26.8%	20.4	5.7	UNDER 5.5· 50%	med
Jake Bennett	Baltimore OriolesBAL	16	21.2%	25.0%	23.7%	23.3	5.5	UNDER 5.5· 54%	high
Kevin Gausman	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	28	23.6%	21.6%	23.5%	23.4	5.5	UNDER 5.5· 54%	high
Jack Perkins	Seattle MarinersSEA	12	22.9%	22.4%	24.2%	21.7	5.3	UNDER 5.5· 57%	med
José Soriano	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	27	22.4%	21.1%	21.8%	23.3	5.1	OVER 4.5· 56%	high
Michael Wacha	Miami MarlinsMIA	27	20.2%	21.3%	19.9%	25.4	5.0	OVER 4.5· 55%	high
Kade Anderson ⚠	AthleticsATH	2	21.7%	24.1%	23.7%	20.5	4.9	—	low
Blade Tidwell ⚠	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	5	20.7%	23.1%	22.1%	21.4	4.7	—	low
Sandy Alcantara	Kansas City RoyalsKC	29	17.8%	20.9%	17.2%	27.0	4.6	UNDER 4.5· 52%	high
Quinn Mathews ⚠	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	4	22.5%	20.8%	20.8%	22.2	4.6	—	low
Shane McClanahan	Texas RangersTEX	23	21.9%	23.6%	23.0%	20.3	4.5	UNDER 4.5· 54%	high
Tanner Bibee	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	28	20.2%	19.6%	18.2%	23.7	4.4	UNDER 4.5· 55%	high
Luis Castillo	Houston AstrosHOU	22	19.7%	21.8%	19.9%	22.5	4.4	UNDER 4.5· 56%	high
Brandon Young	Boston Red SoxBOS	23	18.6%	21.4%	18.3%	24.2	4.4	UNDER 4.5· 56%	high
Cal Quantrill	Tampa Bay RaysTB	11	22.0%	19.3%	19.7%	20.5	4.2	OVER 3.5· 58%	med
Lake Bachar ⚠	San Francisco GiantsSF	7	23.7%	20.8%	22.8%	9.1	2.1	—	low

Hits Allowed

Hits we expect each starter to give up. Same idea as strikeouts, flipped — Proj H is the number, the Pick is the side against the nearest half-point line.

How we get the number

Hit% is how often a batter gets a hit off this pitcher over his own starts. Opp Hit% is how often that lineup gets a hit against this hand. Adj Hit% blends the two, then nudges for the ballpark — hit and run environments move together. Multiply by BF/St (batters faced in a typical start) and you get Proj H. Win chance is scored the same way as the other markets, against completed 2026 starts.

we like the OVERwe like the UNDERtoo close to callbright = strong pick, faded = slight edge+6% = our edge over the book's pricetap a row to star it

PitcherSP	Opp	St	Hit%	Opp Hit%	Adj Hit%	BF/St	Proj HH	Pick	Confidence
Tarik Skubal	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	21	—%	—%	—%	23.6	—	—	low
Hunter Brown	Chicago White SoxCWS	15	—%	—%	—%	22.7	—	—	low
Logan Henderson	Chicago CubsCHC	14	—%	—%	—%	20.4	—	—	low
Jake Bennett	Baltimore OriolesBAL	16	—%	—%	—%	23.3	—	—	low
Kevin Gausman	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	28	—%	—%	—%	23.4	—	—	low
Jack Perkins	Seattle MarinersSEA	12	—%	—%	—%	21.7	—	—	low
José Soriano	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	27	—%	—%	—%	23.3	—	—	low
Michael Wacha	Miami MarlinsMIA	27	—%	—%	—%	25.4	—	—	low
Kade Anderson ⚠	AthleticsATH	2	—%	—%	—%	20.5	—	—	low
Blade Tidwell ⚠	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	5	—%	—%	—%	21.4	—	—	low
Sandy Alcantara	Kansas City RoyalsKC	29	—%	—%	—%	27.0	—	—	low
Quinn Mathews ⚠	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	4	—%	—%	—%	22.2	—	—	low
Shane McClanahan	Texas RangersTEX	23	—%	—%	—%	20.3	—	—	low
Tanner Bibee	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	28	—%	—%	—%	23.7	—	—	low
Luis Castillo	Houston AstrosHOU	22	—%	—%	—%	22.5	—	—	low
Brandon Young	Boston Red SoxBOS	23	—%	—%	—%	24.2	—	—	low
Cal Quantrill	Tampa Bay RaysTB	11	—%	—%	—%	20.5	—	—	low
Lake Bachar ⚠	San Francisco GiantsSF	7	—%	—%	—%	9.1	—	—	low

OUT

Outs Recorded

How deep into the game we expect each starter to go, in outs (3 outs = 1 inning). Blank where his outings are too up-and-down to price.

How we get the number

IP/St is innings per start this year, and Base is that turned into outs with recent form weighted heavier. Matchup is the opponent nudge — how much traffic that lineup puts on and how many pitches it makes him throw. It is deliberately a small adjustment: team on-base splits this season are mostly random, so we lean on the pitcher's own workload rather than invent a matchup edge the data doesn't support.

we like the OVERwe like the UNDERtoo close to callbright = strong pick, faded = slight edge+6% = our edge over the book's pricetap a row to star it

PitcherSP	Opp	St	IP/St	Base	Matchup	Proj OutsOuts	Pick	Confidence
Sandy Alcantara	Kansas City RoyalsKC	29	6.54	19.7	×1.008 -0.7	19.1	UNDER 19.5· 54%	high
Michael Wacha	Miami MarlinsMIA	27	6.32	19.1	×1.003 -0.4	18.7	OVER 18.5· 55%	high
Tanner Bibee	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	28	5.8	17.6	×1.016 -0.3	17.6	OVER 17.5· 53%	high
Tarik Skubal	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	21	6.03	18.1	×1.000 -0.5	17.5	OVER 17.5· 52%	high
Brandon Young	Boston Red SoxBOS	23	5.67	16.8	×1.011 -0.1	16.9	UNDER 17.5· 56%	high
Jake Bennett	Baltimore OriolesBAL	16	5.86	17.3	×0.991 -0.4	16.7	OVER 16.5· 55%	high
José Soriano	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	27	5.6	16.9	×0.996 -0.4	16.4	OVER 16.5· 51%	high
Hunter Brown	Chicago White SoxCWS	15	5.4	16.4	×1.001 -0.2	16.3	UNDER 16.5· 50%	high
Cal Quantrill	Tampa Bay RaysTB	11	5.12	16.1	×1.001 +0.1	16.3	OVER 16.5· 50%	med
Kevin Gausman	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	28	5.55	16.7	×0.974 -0.1	16.2	UNDER 16.5· 52%	high
Logan Henderson	Chicago CubsCHC	14	5.45	17.3	×0.981 -0.8	16.1	UNDER 16.5· 53%	med
Kade Anderson ⚠	AthleticsATH	2	5.0	15.0	×1.012 +0.2	15.4	—	low
Blade Tidwell ⚠	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	5	5.14	15.4	×0.983 -0.5	14.6	—	low
Jack Perkins	Seattle MarinersSEA	12	4.64	14.1	×1.004 +0.3	14.4	OVER 14.5· 51%	med
Quinn Mathews ⚠	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	4	4.92	14.8	×1.000 -0.4	14.4	—	low
Luis Castillo	Houston AstrosHOU	22	5.03	14.6	×1.002 -0.3	14.3	UNDER 14.5· 50%	high
Shane McClanahan	Texas RangersTEX	23	4.91	14.3	×0.993 -0.4	13.8	OVER 13.5· 56%	high
Lake Bachar ⚠	San Francisco GiantsSF	7	2.33	6.8	×1.008 +1.0	—	—	low

Earned Runs

Runs we expect each starter to give up. Priced against a whole-run line (1.5 / 2.5 / 3.5). This is the noisiest of the three markets, so confidence never goes above med.

How we get the number

ER Rate is earned runs per batter faced across his starts, pulled toward the league average when he hasn't thrown much — a small sample shouldn't get treated like a full season. Opp× scales it by how well that lineup scores against this hand, Park× by the ballpark. Multiply through by batters faced and you get Proj ER. We price it as a count that can blow up — one bad inning is most of a bad night — rather than assuming runs trickle in evenly.

we like the OVERwe like the UNDERtoo close to callbright = strong pick, faded = slight edge+6% = our edge over the book's pricetap a row to star it

PitcherSP	Opp	St	ER Rate	Opp×	Park×	Proj ERER	Pick	Confidence
Jack Perkins	Seattle MarinersSEA	12	13.67%	×0.988	×0.94	2.79	UNDER 2.5· 51%	med
Kevin Gausman	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	28	11.27%	×1.032	×1.01	2.74	UNDER 2.5· 52%	med
Luis Castillo	Houston AstrosHOU	22	11.90%	×0.999	×1.00	2.61	UNDER 2.5· 55%	med
Sandy Alcantara	Kansas City RoyalsKC	29	9.49%	×0.996	×1.00	2.56	UNDER 2.5· 56%	med
Michael Wacha	Miami MarlinsMIA	27	9.42%	×1.015	×1.00	2.41	UNDER 2.5· 59%	med
Tanner Bibee	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	28	10.36%	×0.978	×0.98	2.40	UNDER 2.5· 59%	med
Blade Tidwell ⚠	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	5	11.00%	×1.036	×0.98	2.39	—	low
Quinn Mathews ⚠	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	4	10.50%	×1.015	×1.00	2.37	—	low
Jake Bennett	Baltimore OriolesBAL	16	9.50%	×1.002	×1.02	2.26	UNDER 2.5· 62%	med
Brandon Young	Boston Red SoxBOS	23	9.22%	×0.992	×1.02	2.23	UNDER 2.5· 63%	med
Hunter Brown	Chicago White SoxCWS	15	9.36%	×0.995	×1.00	2.13	UNDER 2.5· 65%	med
José Soriano	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	27	9.45%	×0.972	×0.98	2.11	UNDER 2.5· 66%	med
Tarik Skubal	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	21	8.80%	×1.003	×1.00	2.10	UNDER 2.5· 66%	med
Kade Anderson ⚠	AthleticsATH	2	10.22%	×1.006	×0.94	1.98	—	low
Logan Henderson	Chicago CubsCHC	14	8.70%	×1.033	×1.01	1.94	OVER 1.5· 52%	med
Cal Quantrill	Tampa Bay RaysTB	11	8.74%	×1.026	×1.01	1.93	OVER 1.5· 52%	med
Shane McClanahan	Texas RangersTEX	23	9.13%	×1.022	×1.01	1.83	UNDER 1.5· 50%	med
Lake Bachar ⚠	San Francisco GiantsSF	7	9.32%	×1.004	×0.98	0.84	—	low

Extra Plays

The best outs and earned-run numbers on the board, same engine as the strikeout model. These sit outside the two-pick card above — they are newer markets for us, and we keep the opponent adjustment small on purpose, because this season's team splits are still mostly random.

Jack Perkins OVER 13.5 outs

vs Seattle Mariners · 14.1 base × 1.004 matchup → 14.4

65%fair odds -184

José Soriano OVER 15.5 outs

vs Cleveland Guardians · 16.9 base × 0.996 matchup → 16.4

62%fair odds -166

Hunter Brown OVER 15.5 outs

vs Chicago White Sox · 16.4 base × 1.001 matchup → 16.3

62%fair odds -161

Tarik Skubal UNDER 2.5 ER

vs St. Louis Cardinals · we project 2.10 earned runs

66%fair odds -193

José Soriano UNDER 2.5 ER

vs Cleveland Guardians · we project 2.11 earned runs

66%fair odds -191

Hunter Brown UNDER 2.5 ER

vs Chicago White Sox · we project 2.13 earned runs

65%fair odds -187

W-L

Track Record

Every pick we post gets graded the next day against the box score — wins, losses and all — see every one →

All picks 45-39 (54%) · parlay 1-6 · -5.13 units at $100 a card

9/8 7-59/7 7-59/6 9-39/5 3-99/4 5-79/3 6-69/2 8-4

Newest first. Past results do not predict future outcomes.

Every past card (8)

Our own projections · odds shown are fair value with no house cut — not sportsbook prices
Analysis only · not gambling advice · 21+
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