Tonight's Card

Sep 16 Prop Picks

Wed · Sep 16, 2026 15-game slate · 30 starters Strikeouts · outs · earned runs · batters

Live record · since Sep 2 · 16 slates

130-81Picks graded

62%Hit rate

-9.1uUnits · $100/card

3-13Parlay record

Fair prices, not sportsbook prices. No house cut is built in, so your book will pay a little less — shop your own line before betting.

O+U

Tonight's Two

Our two biggest edges over the sportsbook's own price — one over, one under, from whichever market (strikeouts, outs, earned runs or hits) it shows up in. The line and the Mkt Edge are measured against a real book (pinnacle+bovada) wherever one has posted; where none has, we fall back to the nearest half-point line.

Tonight's Two fair odds +170 · 2.7×

Under Outs Jared Jones vs Milwaukee Brewers

Our Proj14.4 outs

PINNACLE15.5 outs

Mkt Edge+3%

Win %62%

Fair Odds-163

Under Outs Matthew Liberatore vs San Francisco Giants

Our Proj15.3 outs

PINNACLE16.5 outs

Mkt Edge+7%

Win %60%

Fair Odds-149

$100 bet · fair odds

$269.63

if both picks hit

+$169.63 profit

Fair-odds payout, not a sportsbook payout. Each pick is priced at the chance we give it (-163 Jones × -149 Liberatore → +170 together, decimal 2.7). A real book takes its cut and will pay less than this.

PROPS EDGE · 2026-09-16 · our projection

On the Record

These 15 calls are the record. Everything else on this page is projection and context — useful for finding your own angle, but not scored. Tomorrow morning each row below is graded against the box score and the running track record moves by exactly these results, win or lose. Nothing is added afterwards and nothing quietly drops out.

Player	Source	Market	Pick	Line	Win %
Jared Jones	Tonight's Two	OUTS	Under	15.5	62%
Matthew Liberatore	Tonight's Two	OUTS	Under	16.5	60%
Max Scherzer	Extra play	ER	Over	1.5	66%
Merrill Kelly	Extra play	K	Under	4.5	63%
Ryan Gusto	Extra play	HITS	Under	5.5	63%
Keider Montero	Extra play	HITS	Under	5.5	62%
Jake Bennett	Outs lean	OUTS	Over	15.5	65%
Anthony Kay	Outs lean	OUTS	Over	13.5	65%
Carlos Rodón	Outs lean	OUTS	Over	13.5	64%
Nick Martinez	ER lean	ER	Under	2.5	68%
Ryan Gusto	ER lean	ER	Under	2.5	66%
Merrill Kelly	ER lean	ER	Under	3.5	64%
Alec Burleson	Batter	HIT	1+ Hit		71%
Bryce Eldridge	Batter	HIT	1+ Hit		71%
Jonah Cox	Batter	HIT	1+ Hit		71%

OVERUNDERtoo closehighest-confidence pick+6% edge over the booktap a row to star it

Strikeouts

All 30 probable starters, most projected strikeouts first — Proj K is tonight's number, Pick is the side against the nearest half-point line.

PitcherSP	Opp	St	K%	Opp K%	Proj KK	Pick	Confidence
Blake Snell ⚠	Cincinnati RedsCIN	7	29.8%	24.4%	7.0	—	low
Parker Messick	Chicago White SoxCWS	29	26.6%	24.3%	6.7	UNDER 6.5· 51% -1%	high
Zack Wheeler	Washington NationalsWSH	25	28.9%	21.0%	6.5	UNDER 6.5· 54% +1%	high
Logan Henderson	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	16	28.1%	23.1%	6.2	UNDER 6.5· 59% +1%	high
Jared Jones	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	18	28.0%	21.8%	5.7	UNDER 5.5· 51% -0%	high
George Kirby	Los Angeles AngelsLAA	28	19.8%	25.0%	5.7	UNDER 5.5· 51% -2%	high
Matthew Liberatore	San Francisco GiantsSF	29	24.1%	23.5%	5.4	UNDER 5.5· 55% -3%	high
Carlos Rodón	Minnesota TwinsMIN	14	26.1%	22.4%	5.3	UNDER 5.5· 57%	med
Zebby Matthews	New York YankeesNYY	21	20.0%	24.1%	5.2	OVER 4.5· 59% +6%	high
Shota Imanaga	Atlanta BravesATL	29	23.7%	21.7%	5.1	UNDER 5.5· 59% +1%	high
Jake Bennett	Texas RangersTEX	18	21.3%	23.5%	5.1	OVER 4.5· 48% +7%	high
Yusei Kikuchi	Seattle MarinersSEA	11	22.5%	23.8%	5.0	UNDER 5.5· 58% +7%	med
MacKenzie Gore	Boston Red SoxBOS	31	22.7%	21.9%	4.9	OVER 4.5· 52% -3%	high
Anthony Molina ⚠	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	3	24.5%	21.4%	4.7	—	low
Robert Stock ⚠	Baltimore OriolesBAL	7	20.6%	23.7%	4.7	—	low
Mason Adams ⚠	San Diego PadresSD	4	25.7%	21.6%	4.7	—	low
JR Ritchie	Chicago CubsCHC	8	20.9%	21.2%	4.5	UNDER 4.5· 54%	low
Robbie Ray	Colorado RockiesCOL	28	19.4%	24.1%	4.5	UNDER 4.5· 54% +0%	high
Chris Bassitt	New York MetsNYM	16	17.4%	21.9%	4.2	OVER 3.5· 59% +2%	high
Anthony Kay	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	28	19.1%	22.0%	4.1	OVER 3.5· 51% +7%	high
Cristian Javier ⚠	Kansas City RoyalsKC	10	22.4%	20.7%	4.0	—	low
Max Scherzer	Detroit TigersDET	15	18.2%	22.5%	3.9	UNDER 4.5· 54% +7%	high
Merrill Kelly	Miami MarlinsMIA	27	16.4%	21.5%	3.9	UNDER 4.5· 63% +7%	high
Nick Martinez	AthleticsATH	28	16.1%	21.7%	3.7	OVER 3.5· 50% -8%	high
Andrew Abbott	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	30	18.2%	20.8%	3.6	UNDER 3.5· 52% -5%	high
Ryan Gusto	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	16	18.0%	20.3%	3.3	UNDER 3.5· 57% +7%	high
Keider Montero	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	24	15.3%	19.3%	2.9	OVER 2.5· 53% -2%	high
Daniel Lynch IV ⚠	Houston AstrosHOU	7	15.5%	21.5%	2.5	—	low
Brady Basso ⚠	Tampa Bay RaysTB	5	20.6%	18.9%	1.9	—	low
Jared Simpson ⚠	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	0	—%	—%	—	—	low

Hits Allowed

Hits we expect each starter to give up — Proj H is the number, the Pick is the side against the nearest half-point line.

PitcherSP	Opp	St	Hit%	Opp Hit%	Proj HH	Pick	Confidence
George Kirby	Los Angeles AngelsLAA	28	24.68%	21.22%	6.11	OVER 5.5· 56% +7%	med
Merrill Kelly	Miami MarlinsMIA	27	22.73%	22.11%	5.66	UNDER 5.5· 50% -7%	med
Chris Bassitt	New York MetsNYM	16	23.8%	21.68%	5.42	UNDER 5.5· 54% +4%	med
Robbie Ray	Colorado RockiesCOL	28	20.73%	21.86%	5.26	UNDER 5.5· 57%	med
Jake Bennett	Texas RangersTEX	18	21.9%	21.86%	5.16	OVER 4.5· 59% +1%	med
Andrew Abbott	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	30	22.4%	21.64%	5.11	OVER 4.5· 58% -0%	med
Matthew Liberatore	San Francisco GiantsSF	29	23.88%	21.55%	5.07	OVER 4.5· 57% +2%	med
Nick Martinez	AthleticsATH	28	22.58%	21.62%	5.07	UNDER 5.5· 60% +6%	med
Zebby Matthews	New York YankeesNYY	21	22.36%	21.04%	5.03	OVER 4.5· 56% +2%	med
Shota Imanaga	Atlanta BravesATL	29	21.8%	21.64%	4.93	OVER 4.5· 55% +1%	med
MacKenzie Gore	Boston Red SoxBOS	31	21.68%	21.71%	4.91	OVER 4.5· 49% +7%	med
Keider Montero	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	24	20.91%	22.5%	4.74	UNDER 5.5· 62% +7%	med
Anthony Kay	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	28	22.17%	21.26%	4.73	OVER 4.5· 51% -1%	med
Blake Snell ⚠	Cincinnati RedsCIN	7	20.31%	21.6%	4.7	—	low
Zack Wheeler	Washington NationalsWSH	25	20.23%	21.58%	4.68	OVER 4.5· 50% -4%	med
Yusei Kikuchi	Seattle MarinersSEA	11	22.3%	21.17%	4.68	OVER 4.5· 50% +0%	med
JR Ritchie	Chicago CubsCHC	8	21.09%	21.59%	4.67	UNDER 4.5· 50%	low
Parker Messick	Chicago White SoxCWS	29	20.15%	21.47%	4.66	UNDER 4.5· 50% -0%	med
Mason Adams ⚠	San Diego PadresSD	4	21.93%	21.33%	4.65	—	low
Ryan Gusto	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	16	22.92%	21.12%	4.54	UNDER 5.5· 63% +7%	med
Max Scherzer	Detroit TigersDET	15	21.83%	21.59%	4.52	UNDER 4.5· 53% -2%	med
Robert Stock ⚠	Baltimore OriolesBAL	7	22.58%	21.09%	4.37	—	low
Jared Jones	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	18	20.82%	22.39%	4.29	UNDER 4.5· 57%	med
Anthony Molina ⚠	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	3	22.29%	21.67%	4.29	—	low
Cristian Javier ⚠	Kansas City RoyalsKC	10	22.36%	21.83%	4.28	—	low
Logan Henderson	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	16	19.59%	22.18%	4.14	UNDER 4.5· 60%	med
Carlos Rodón	Minnesota TwinsMIN	14	19.2%	21.42%	3.82	OVER 3.5· 53%	med
Daniel Lynch IV ⚠	Houston AstrosHOU	7	21.91%	21.55%	3.65	—	low
Brady Basso ⚠	Tampa Bay RaysTB	5	22.22%	21.72%	2.34	—	low
Jared Simpson ⚠	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	0	—%	—%	—	—	low

OUT

Outs Recorded

How deep into the game we expect each starter to go, in outs (3 outs = 1 inning). Blank where his outings are too up-and-down to price.

PitcherSP	Opp	St	IP/St	Proj OutsOuts	Pick	Confidence
Parker Messick	Chicago White SoxCWS	29	5.94	17.5	OVER 17.5· 52% -6%	high
Nick Martinez	AthleticsATH	28	5.94	17.5	OVER 17.5· 52% -4%	high
George Kirby	Los Angeles AngelsLAA	28	5.9	17.3	OVER 17.5· 50% -8%	high
Merrill Kelly	Miami MarlinsMIA	27	5.63	16.9	OVER 15.5· 57% +7%	high
Zebby Matthews	New York YankeesNYY	21	5.68	16.6	OVER 16.5· 53%	high
Jake Bennett	Texas RangersTEX	18	5.83	16.5	OVER 16.5· 52% +5%	high
Shota Imanaga	Atlanta BravesATL	29	5.6	16.4	UNDER 17.5· 50% +7%	high
Zack Wheeler	Washington NationalsWSH	25	5.73	16.3	UNDER 17.5· 49% +7%	high
Logan Henderson	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	16	5.52	16.0	UNDER 17.5· 57% +7%	high
Chris Bassitt	New York MetsNYM	16	5.0	15.9	UNDER 16.5· 55%	high
Blake Snell ⚠	Cincinnati RedsCIN	7	5.39	15.6	—	low
Robbie Ray	Colorado RockiesCOL	28	5.36	15.5	OVER 15.5· 52% +6%	high
Keider Montero	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	24	5.53	15.5	OVER 15.5· 52% +4%	high
Matthew Liberatore	San Francisco GiantsSF	29	4.94	15.3	UNDER 16.5· 60% +7%	high
MacKenzie Gore	Boston Red SoxBOS	31	5.22	14.9	UNDER 15.5· 54%	high
Andrew Abbott	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	30	5.14	14.9	UNDER 15.5· 55%	high
Yusei Kikuchi	Seattle MarinersSEA	11	4.82	14.8	UNDER 15.5· 55%	med
Max Scherzer	Detroit TigersDET	15	4.51	14.7	UNDER 15.5· 55% -1%	high
Mason Adams ⚠	San Diego PadresSD	4	4.67	14.6	—	low
Jared Jones	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	18	4.76	14.4	UNDER 15.5· 62% +3%	high
Carlos Rodón	Minnesota TwinsMIN	14	5.02	14.4	OVER 14.5· 51%	med
Anthony Kay	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	28	4.93	14.4	OVER 14.5· 51%	high
Ryan Gusto	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	16	4.31	13.9	UNDER 14.5· 55%	high
JR Ritchie	Chicago CubsCHC	8	4.96	12.9	UNDER 13.5· 56%	low
Anthony Molina ⚠	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	3	4.33	—	—	low
Robert Stock ⚠	Baltimore OriolesBAL	7	4.29	—	—	low
Cristian Javier ⚠	Kansas City RoyalsKC	10	4.23	—	—	low
Daniel Lynch IV ⚠	Houston AstrosHOU	7	3.67	—	—	low
Brady Basso ⚠	Tampa Bay RaysTB	5	2.4	—	—	low
Jared Simpson ⚠	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	0	—	—	—	low

Earned Runs

Runs we expect each starter to give up. Priced against a whole-run line (1.5 / 2.5 / 3.5). This is the noisiest of the three markets, so confidence never goes above med.

PitcherSP	Opp	St	Proj ERER	Pick	Confidence
Merrill Kelly	Miami MarlinsMIA	27	3.04	OVER 2.5· 53% +6%	med
Zebby Matthews	New York YankeesNYY	21	2.84	UNDER 2.5· 50% -3%	med
Max Scherzer	Detroit TigersDET	15	2.84	OVER 1.5· 66% +7%	med
JR Ritchie	Chicago CubsCHC	8	2.73	UNDER 2.5· 53%	low
Andrew Abbott	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	30	2.72	UNDER 2.5· 53% +1%	med
George Kirby	Los Angeles AngelsLAA	28	2.70	UNDER 2.5· 53% -3%	med
Matthew Liberatore	San Francisco GiantsSF	29	2.70	OVER 1.5· 63% +7%	med
MacKenzie Gore	Boston Red SoxBOS	31	2.65	UNDER 2.5· 54% -4%	med
Chris Bassitt	New York MetsNYM	16	2.63	UNDER 2.5· 55% +5%	med
Jake Bennett	Texas RangersTEX	18	2.53	UNDER 2.5· 57% +1%	med
Robbie Ray	Colorado RockiesCOL	28	2.53	UNDER 2.5· 57%	med
Cristian Javier ⚠	Kansas City RoyalsKC	10	2.45	—	low
Shota Imanaga	Atlanta BravesATL	29	2.39	OVER 1.5· 62% +5%	med
Anthony Kay	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	28	2.37	OVER 1.5· 62% +3%	med
Yusei Kikuchi	Seattle MarinersSEA	11	2.35	UNDER 2.5· 61% +3%	med
Robert Stock ⚠	Baltimore OriolesBAL	7	2.33	—	low
Jared Jones	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	18	2.28	UNDER 2.5· 62%	med
Mason Adams ⚠	San Diego PadresSD	4	2.25	—	low
Keider Montero	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	24	2.25	UNDER 2.5· 63% +5%	med
Anthony Molina ⚠	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	3	2.24	—	low
Zack Wheeler	Washington NationalsWSH	25	2.23	UNDER 2.5· 60% +7%	med
Blake Snell ⚠	Cincinnati RedsCIN	7	2.11	—	low
Ryan Gusto	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	16	2.08	UNDER 2.5· 60% +7%	med
Daniel Lynch IV ⚠	Houston AstrosHOU	7	2.06	—	low
Nick Martinez	AthleticsATH	28	2.02	UNDER 2.5· 62% +7%	med
Parker Messick	Chicago White SoxCWS	29	1.94	OVER 1.5· 52% -3%	med
Logan Henderson	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	16	1.89	OVER 1.5· 51%	med
Carlos Rodón	Minnesota TwinsMIN	14	1.87	OVER 1.5· 50%	med
Brady Basso ⚠	Tampa Bay RaysTB	5	1.10	—	low
Jared Simpson ⚠	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	0	—	—	low

BAT

Batter Props

144 batters across 9 posted lineups, best chances first. 1+ Hit and 1+ RBI are the odds he gets at least one tonight. The three marked PICK are our strongest 1+ Hit calls and are graded into the track record. Lineups post 3–4 hours before first pitch, so late games may still be missing.

Batter	Team	#	Opp SP	vs	Hit%	1+ HitHit	1+ RBIRBI
PICK Alec Burleson	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	3	Anthony Molina	RHP	24.7%	71%	40%
PICK Bryce Eldridge	San Francisco GiantsSF	2	Matthew Liberatore	LHP	23.3%	71%	37%
PICK Jonah Cox	San Francisco GiantsSF	1	Matthew Liberatore	LHP	22.8%	71%	34%
Justin Foscue	Texas RangersTEX	1	Jake Bennett	LHP	23.7%	71%	40%
Luis García Jr.	New York YankeesNYY	4	Zebby Matthews	RHP	24.7%	71%	42%
Jeff McNeil	AthleticsATH	2	Nick Martinez	RHP	23.6%	71%	37%
Yandy Díaz	Tampa Bay RaysTB	1	Brady Basso	LHP	23.4%	71%	38%
Henry Bolte	AthleticsATH	1	Nick Martinez	RHP	22.9%	70%	27%
Kevin McGonigle	Detroit TigersDET	1	Max Scherzer	RHP	23.3%	70%	33%
Brett Bateman	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	1	Keider Montero	RHP	23.8%	70%	31%
Jo Adell	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	3	Anthony Kay	LHP	23.9%	70%	46%
Luis Arraez	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	4	Jared Simpson	LHP	24.1%	70%	32%
Nathan Lukes	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	2	Keider Montero	RHP	24.1%	70%	32%
Kyle Schwarber	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	1	Jared Simpson	LHP	22.6%	70%	38%
Elly De La Cruz	Cincinnati RedsCIN	2	Blake Snell	LHP	24.3%	69%	41%
Ben Rice	New York YankeesNYY	1	Zebby Matthews	RHP	22.6%	69%	40%
Ryan Vilade	Tampa Bay RaysTB	2	Brady Basso	LHP	23.1%	69%	39%
José Ramírez	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	2	Anthony Kay	LHP	23.0%	69%	37%
Brett Harris	San Francisco GiantsSF	3	Matthew Liberatore	LHP	22.5%	69%	33%
Jordan Walker	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	4	Anthony Molina	RHP	23.8%	69%	41%
Leo Bernal	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	2	Anthony Molina	RHP	22.9%	69%	38%
Chase Meidroth	Chicago White SoxCWS	1	Parker Messick	LHP	23.9%	69%	34%
Cody Bellinger	New York YankeesNYY	2	Zebby Matthews	RHP	22.8%	69%	38%
Tommy Edman	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	1	Andrew Abbott	LHP	22.3%	69%	38%

★

Milestone Watch

Players closing in on a season or career mark. Anyone playing tonight is flagged first; lineups post a few hours before first pitch.

Player	Team	Milestone	Has	NeedsNeed
TONIGHT Elly De La Cruz	CINCIN	150 hits	149	1
TONIGHT José Ramírez	CLECLE	1,000th career RBI	998	2
TONIGHT Eugenio Suárez	CINCIN	350th career home run	349	1
TONIGHT Bryan Reynolds	PITPIT	150 hits	148	2
TONIGHT CJ Abrams	WSHWSH	30-30 season	30 HR / 29 SB	1 SB
TONIGHT Yandy Díaz	TBTB	175 hits	173	2
TONIGHT Carlos Rodón	NYYNYY	1,500th career strikeout	1,492	8 proj 5.3 K
TONIGHT Zack Wheeler	PHIPHI	2,000th career strikeout	1,992	8 proj 6.5 K
TONIGHT Carlos Rodón	NYYNYY	100th career win	99	1
TONIGHT Yusei Kikuchi	LAALAA	50th career win	49	1
TONIGHT Brayan Rocchio	CLECLE	20 SB	19	1
TONIGHT CJ Abrams	WSHWSH	30 SB	29	1
TONIGHT Miguel Vargas	CWSCWS	20 SB	19	1
TONIGHT Travis Bazzana	CLECLE	20 SB	19	1
TONIGHT Trea Turner	PHIPHI	20 HR	19	1
TONIGHT Trea Turner	PHIPHI	20 SB	19	1
TONIGHT Blake Snell	LADLAD	1,500th career strikeout	1,491	9 proj 7.0 K
TONIGHT Anthony Molina	SFSF	100th career strikeout	90	10 proj 4.7 K
TONIGHT Mookie Betts	LADLAD	200th career stolen base	198	2
TONIGHT Ben Rice	NYYNYY	100 runs	98	2
TONIGHT Miguel Vargas	CWSCWS	100 runs	98	2
TONIGHT Brandon Nimmo	TEXTEX	150 hits	146	4
TONIGHT Chase Meidroth	CWSCWS	150 hits	146	4
TONIGHT Jo Adell	CLECLE	100th career home run	97	3
TONIGHT Jung Hoo Lee	SFSF	150 hits	145	5
TONIGHT Trea Turner	PHIPHI	150 hits	145	5
TONIGHT Ben Rice	NYYNYY	40 HR	38	2
TONIGHT Bryce Harper	PHIPHI	30 HR	28	2
TONIGHT Corey Seager	TEXTEX	20 HR	18	2
TONIGHT Jordan Walker	STLSTL	30 HR	28	2
TONIGHT Jorge Mateo	ATLATL	20 SB	18	2
TONIGHT Luke Keaschall	MINMIN	20 SB	18	2
TONIGHT Oneil Cruz	PITPIT	20 HR	18	2
TONIGHT Paul Goldschmidt	NYYNYY	20 HR	18	2
TONIGHT Ryan O'Hearn	PITPIT	20 HR	18	2
TONIGHT Sam Antonacci	CWSCWS	20 SB	18	2
TONIGHT Zack Gelof	ATHATH	20 HR	18	2
TONIGHT Jake Bennett	BOSBOS	100th career strikeout	83	17 proj 5.1 K
TONIGHT Bryce Harper	PHIPHI	150 hits	144	6
TONIGHT José Ramírez	CLECLE	300th career home run	296	4
TONIGHT Riley Greene	DETDET	100th career home run	96	4
TONIGHT CJ Abrams	WSHWSH	100 RBI	96	4
TONIGHT Junior Caminero	TBTB	100 RBI	96	4
TONIGHT CJ Abrams	WSHWSH	150 hits	143	7
TONIGHT Ben Rice	NYYNYY	150 hits	142	8
TONIGHT Brandon Marsh	PHIPHI	20 HR	17	3
TONIGHT Bryan Reynolds	PITPIT	20 HR	17	3
TONIGHT Bryce Eldridge	SFSF	20 HR	17	3
TONIGHT Dillon Dingler	DETDET	30 HR	27	3
TONIGHT Elly De La Cruz	CINCIN	30 HR	27	3
TONIGHT Ezequiel Duran	TEXTEX	20 HR	17	3
TONIGHT Kevin McGonigle	DETDET	20 HR	17	3
TONIGHT Kyle Schwarber	PHIPHI	100 RBI	95	5
TONIGHT Matt McLain	CINCIN	20 SB	17	3
TONIGHT Nathaniel Lowe	CLECLE	20 HR	17	3
TONIGHT Nick Martinez	TBTB	15 wins	14	1
TONIGHT Oneil Cruz	PITPIT	30 SB	27	3
TONIGHT Trea Turner	PHIPHI	100 runs	95	5
TONIGHT Wyatt Langford	TEXTEX	20 HR	17	3
Manny Machado	SDSD	400th career home run	397	3
Kenley Jansen	DETDET	500th career save	496	4
Francisco Lindor	NYMNYM	300th career home run	299	1
Jesús Luzardo	PHIPHI	1,000th career strikeout	996	4
Steven Matz	TBTB	1,000th career strikeout	994	6
Pete Crow-Armstrong	CHCCHC	40-40 season	42 HR / 37 SB	3 SB
Christian Walker	HOUHOU	200th career home run	199	1
Kris Bubic	KCKC	500th career strikeout	495	5
Rhys Hoskins	CLECLE	200th career home run	199	1
Carlos Estévez	KCKC	500th career strikeout	494	6
JP Sears	SDSD	500th career strikeout	491	9
Willson Contreras	BOSBOS	200th career home run	198	2
Gregory Soto	PITPIT	500th career strikeout	484	16
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	LADLAD	500th career strikeout	484	16
Matt Olson	ATLATL	40 HR	39	1
Yordan Alvarez	HOUHOU	40 HR	39	1
Austin Warren	NYMNYM	100th career strikeout	99	1
Cole Winn	TEXTEX	100th career strikeout	98	2
Hunter Dobbins	STLSTL	100th career strikeout	97	3
Ian Happ	CHCCHC	200th career home run	196	4

Extra Plays

The best outs and earned-run numbers on the board, same engine as the strikeout model. These sit outside the two-pick card above — they are newer markets for us, and we keep the opponent adjustment small on purpose, because this season's team splits are still mostly random.

Jake Bennett OVER 15.5 outs

vs Texas Rangers · 17.3 base × 0.993 matchup → 16.5

65%fair odds -188

Anthony Kay OVER 13.5 outs

vs Cleveland Guardians · 14.6 base × 0.997 matchup → 14.4

65%fair odds -184

Carlos Rodón OVER 13.5 outs

vs Minnesota Twins · 14.9 base × 1.005 matchup → 14.4

64%fair odds -179

Nick Martinez UNDER 2.5 ER

vs Athletics · we project 2.02 earned runs

68%fair odds -210

Ryan Gusto UNDER 2.5 ER

vs Arizona Diamondbacks · we project 2.08 earned runs

66%fair odds -197

Merrill Kelly UNDER 3.5 ER

vs Miami Marlins · we project 3.04 earned runs

64%fair odds -181

W-L

Track Record

Every pick we post gets graded the next day against the box score — wins, losses and all — see every one →

All picks 130-81 (62%) · parlay 3-13 · -9.07 units at $100 a card

9/17 8-69/16 7-89/15 9-59/14 11-39/13 9-59/12 8-59/11 11-39/10 8-5

Newest first. Past results do not predict future outcomes.

Every past card (16)

Our own projections · odds shown are fair value with no house cut — not sportsbook prices
Analysis only · not gambling advice · 21+
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