Tonight's Card

Sep 14 Prop Picks

Mon · Sep 14, 2026 10-game slate · 20 starters Strikeouts · outs · earned runs · batters

Live record · since Sep 2 · 16 slates

130-81Picks graded

62%Hit rate

-9.1uUnits · $100/card

3-13Parlay record

Fair prices, not sportsbook prices. No house cut is built in, so your book will pay a little less — shop your own line before betting.

O+U

Tonight's Two

Our two biggest edges over the sportsbook's own price — one over, one under, from whichever market (strikeouts, outs, earned runs or hits) it shows up in. The line and the Mkt Edge are measured against a real book (bovada) wherever one has posted; where none has, we fall back to the nearest half-point line.

Tonight's Two fair odds +152 · 2.52×

Under Earned runs Troy Melton vs Toronto Blue Jays

Our Proj2.11 ER

Line2.5 ER

Edge-0.4

Win %66%

Fair Odds-192

Under Hits Will Warren vs Minnesota Twins

Our Proj5.08 hits

Line5.5 hits

Edge-0.4

Win %60%

Fair Odds-151

$100 bet · fair odds

$252.45

if both picks hit

+$152.45 profit

Fair-odds payout, not a sportsbook payout. Each pick is priced at the chance we give it (-192 Melton × -151 Warren → +152 together, decimal 2.52). A real book takes its cut and will pay less than this.

PROPS EDGE · 2026-09-14 · our projection

On the Record

These 14 calls are the record. Everything else on this page is projection and context — useful for finding your own angle, but not scored. Tomorrow morning each row below is graded against the box score and the running track record moves by exactly these results, win or lose. Nothing is added afterwards and nothing quietly drops out.

Player	Source	Market	Pick	Line	Win %
Troy Melton	Tonight's Two	ER	Under	2.5	66%
Will Warren	Tonight's Two	HITS	Under	5.5	60%
Casey Mize	Extra play	HITS	Under	5.5	60%
Tomoyuki Sugano	Extra play	K	Under	3.5	58%
José Soriano	Extra play	HITS	Under	5.5	60%
Brandon Young	Extra play	HITS	Under	5.5	59%
David Peterson	Outs lean	OUTS	Over	14.5	64%
Tarik Skubal	Outs lean	OUTS	Over	16.5	64%
Will Warren	Outs lean	OUTS	Over	14.5	61%
Reid Detmers	ER lean	ER	Under	2.5	64%
Tomoyuki Sugano	ER lean	ER	Under	3.5	63%
Jake McCarthy	Batter	HIT	1+ Hit		71%
Elly De La Cruz	Batter	HIT	1+ Hit		71%
Alec Burleson	Batter	HIT	1+ Hit		70%

OVERUNDERtoo closehighest-confidence pick+6% edge over the booktap a row to star it

Strikeouts

All 20 probable starters, most projected strikeouts first — Proj K is tonight's number, Pick is the side against the nearest half-point line.

PitcherSP	Opp	St	K%	Opp K%	Proj KK	Pick	Confidence
Gavin Williams	Chicago White SoxCWS	29	34.0%	23.5%	8.3	OVER 7.5· 57%	high
Tarik Skubal	Cincinnati RedsCIN	23	28.8%	24.1%	7.4	UNDER 7.5· 55%	high
Reid Detmers	Seattle MarinersSEA	29	28.3%	23.6%	6.9	OVER 6.5· 51%	high
Jonah Tong ⚠	Baltimore OriolesBAL	1	24.4%	23.6%	5.6	—	low
Dean Kremer	New York YankeesNYY	14	22.3%	24.2%	5.3	UNDER 5.5· 57%	med
José Soriano	Detroit TigersDET	29	20.9%	22.6%	5.2	OVER 4.5· 57%	high
Quinn Mathews ⚠	San Francisco GiantsSF	6	21.4%	23.3%	5.0	—	low
Will Warren	Minnesota TwinsMIN	27	23.2%	20.7%	4.9	OVER 4.5· 52%	high
David Peterson	Atlanta BravesATL	20	20.9%	21.7%	4.7	UNDER 4.5· 50%	high
Kade Anderson ⚠	Los Angeles AngelsLAA	4	19.9%	24.3%	4.7	—	low
Brandon Young	New York MetsNYM	25	18.2%	22.0%	4.5	UNDER 4.5· 54%	high
Landen Roupp	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	28	20.0%	21.5%	4.5	UNDER 4.5· 54%	high
Reynaldo López	Chicago CubsCHC	12	22.2%	21.3%	4.4	UNDER 4.5· 55%	med
Casey Mize	Colorado RockiesCOL	23	20.5%	22.2%	4.2	OVER 3.5· 57%	high
Troy Melton	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	18	18.9%	19.3%	4.1	OVER 3.5· 57%	high
Sandy Alcantara	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	31	15.8%	20.2%	3.9	OVER 3.5· 53%	high
Nick Lodolo	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	18	18.9%	20.9%	3.8	OVER 3.5· 52%	high
Tomoyuki Sugano	San Diego PadresSD	26	15.1%	21.6%	3.3	UNDER 3.5· 58%	high
Corbin Burnes ⚠	Miami MarlinsMIA	1	20.9%	21.3%	2.6	—	low
Sean Newcomb ⚠	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	5	27.3%	22.1%	1.9	—	low

Hits Allowed

Hits we expect each starter to give up — Proj H is the number, the Pick is the side against the nearest half-point line.

PitcherSP	Opp	St	Hit%	Opp Hit%	Proj HH	Pick	Confidence
Tomoyuki Sugano	San Diego PadresSD	26	23.32%	21.31%	5.88	OVER 5.5· 53%	med
Sandy Alcantara	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	31	22.13%	21.11%	5.8	OVER 5.5· 52%	med
David Peterson	Atlanta BravesATL	20	22.99%	21.65%	5.41	UNDER 5.5· 54%	med
Tarik Skubal	Cincinnati RedsCIN	23	21.15%	21.63%	5.38	UNDER 5.5· 55%	med
Troy Melton	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	18	20.85%	22.51%	5.35	UNDER 5.5· 55%	med
Nick Lodolo	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	18	22.48%	21.66%	5.24	UNDER 5.5· 57%	med
Brandon Young	New York MetsNYM	25	22.29%	21.67%	5.13	UNDER 5.5· 59%	med
José Soriano	Detroit TigersDET	29	21.08%	21.62%	5.11	UNDER 5.5· 60%	med
Will Warren	Minnesota TwinsMIN	27	22.56%	21.96%	5.08	UNDER 5.5· 60%	med
Casey Mize	Colorado RockiesCOL	23	21.53%	22.04%	5.08	UNDER 5.5· 60%	med
Quinn Mathews ⚠	San Francisco GiantsSF	6	21.84%	21.57%	4.86	—	low
Kade Anderson ⚠	Los Angeles AngelsLAA	4	21.83%	21.47%	4.77	—	low
Reid Detmers	Seattle MarinersSEA	29	20.56%	21.15%	4.73	OVER 4.5· 51%	med
Landen Roupp	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	28	20.57%	21.72%	4.6	UNDER 4.5· 51%	med
Gavin Williams	Chicago White SoxCWS	29	20.69%	21.14%	4.52	UNDER 4.5· 53%	med
Reynaldo López	Chicago CubsCHC	12	22.07%	21.6%	4.5	UNDER 4.5· 53%	med
Dean Kremer	New York YankeesNYY	14	21.95%	21.01%	4.49	UNDER 4.5· 53%	med
Jonah Tong ⚠	Baltimore OriolesBAL	1	21.65%	21.08%	4.24	—	low
Corbin Burnes ⚠	Miami MarlinsMIA	1	21.62%	22.12%	2.89	—	low
Sean Newcomb ⚠	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	5	21.1%	21.26%	1.42	—	low

OUT

Outs Recorded

How deep into the game we expect each starter to go, in outs (3 outs = 1 inning). Blank where his outings are too up-and-down to price.

PitcherSP	Opp	St	IP/St	Proj OutsOuts	Pick	Confidence
Sandy Alcantara	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	31	6.45	18.1	UNDER 18.5· 53%	high
Reid Detmers	Seattle MarinersSEA	29	5.79	17.6	OVER 17.5· 54%	high
Tarik Skubal	Cincinnati RedsCIN	23	6.07	17.3	UNDER 17.5· 51%	high
José Soriano	Detroit TigersDET	29	5.62	16.9	UNDER 17.5· 55%	high
Troy Melton	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	18	6.0	16.9	UNDER 17.5· 56%	high
Brandon Young	New York MetsNYM	25	5.63	16.3	UNDER 16.5· 50%	high
Gavin Williams	Chicago White SoxCWS	29	5.83	15.9	UNDER 16.5· 54%	high
Kade Anderson ⚠	Los Angeles AngelsLAA	4	5.25	15.8	—	low
Landen Roupp	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	28	5.38	15.6	OVER 15.5· 54%	high
Tomoyuki Sugano	San Diego PadresSD	26	5.3	15.6	OVER 15.5· 54%	high
Quinn Mathews ⚠	San Francisco GiantsSF	6	5.12	15.4	—	low
David Peterson	Atlanta BravesATL	20	4.96	15.4	OVER 15.5· 51%	high
Will Warren	Minnesota TwinsMIN	27	5.16	15.3	UNDER 15.5· 50%	high
Dean Kremer	New York YankeesNYY	14	5.12	14.9	UNDER 15.5· 56%	med
Casey Mize	Colorado RockiesCOL	23	5.19	14.8	UNDER 15.5· 55%	high
Nick Lodolo	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	18	4.98	14.8	OVER 14.5· 56%	high
Jonah Tong ⚠	Baltimore OriolesBAL	1	5.0	14.4	—	low
Reynaldo López	Chicago CubsCHC	12	4.52	13.7	OVER 13.5· 54%	med
Corbin Burnes ⚠	Miami MarlinsMIA	1	3.0	—	—	low
Sean Newcomb ⚠	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	5	1.94	—	—	low

Earned Runs

Runs we expect each starter to give up. Priced against a whole-run line (1.5 / 2.5 / 3.5). This is the noisiest of the three markets, so confidence never goes above med.

PitcherSP	Opp	St	Proj ERER	Pick	Confidence
Tomoyuki Sugano	San Diego PadresSD	26	3.13	UNDER 3.5· 63%	med
David Peterson	Atlanta BravesATL	20	2.82	UNDER 2.5· 51%	med
Nick Lodolo	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	18	2.71	UNDER 2.5· 53%	med
Sandy Alcantara	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	31	2.64	UNDER 2.5· 55%	med
Dean Kremer	New York YankeesNYY	14	2.58	UNDER 2.5· 56%	med
Casey Mize	Colorado RockiesCOL	23	2.45	UNDER 2.5· 59%	med
José Soriano	Detroit TigersDET	29	2.38	UNDER 2.5· 60%	med
Will Warren	Minnesota TwinsMIN	27	2.38	UNDER 2.5· 60%	med
Tarik Skubal	Cincinnati RedsCIN	23	2.36	UNDER 2.5· 60%	med
Gavin Williams	Chicago White SoxCWS	29	2.33	UNDER 2.5· 61%	med
Kade Anderson ⚠	Los Angeles AngelsLAA	4	2.31	—	low
Reynaldo López	Chicago CubsCHC	12	2.30	UNDER 2.5· 62%	med
Landen Roupp	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	28	2.29	UNDER 2.5· 62%	med
Quinn Mathews ⚠	San Francisco GiantsSF	6	2.27	—	low
Brandon Young	New York MetsNYM	25	2.27	UNDER 2.5· 62%	med
Reid Detmers	Seattle MarinersSEA	29	2.21	UNDER 2.5· 64%	med
Jonah Tong ⚠	Baltimore OriolesBAL	1	2.16	—	low
Troy Melton	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	18	2.11	UNDER 2.5· 66%	med
Corbin Burnes ⚠	Miami MarlinsMIA	1	1.37	—	low
Sean Newcomb ⚠	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	5	0.66	—	low

BAT

Batter Props

90 batters across 7 posted lineups, best chances first. 1+ Hit and 1+ RBI are the odds he gets at least one tonight. The three marked PICK are our strongest 1+ Hit calls and are graded into the track record. Lineups post 3–4 hours before first pitch, so late games may still be missing.

Batter	Team	#	Opp SP	vs	Hit%	1+ HitHit	1+ RBIRBI
PICK Jake McCarthy	Colorado RockiesCOL	1	Casey Mize	RHP	24.1%	71%	37%
PICK Elly De La Cruz	Cincinnati RedsCIN	2	Tarik Skubal	LHP	24.7%	71%	40%
PICK Alec Burleson	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	3	Landen Roupp	RHP	25.0%	70%	40%
Brett Bateman	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	1	Troy Melton	RHP	23.8%	70%	32%
Chase DeLauter	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	3	Sean Newcomb	LHP	24.3%	70%	34%
Ozzie Albies	Atlanta BravesATL	4	David Peterson	LHP	23.6%	70%	34%
Bryce Eldridge	San Francisco GiantsSF	2	Quinn Mathews	LHP	23.3%	70%	37%
Francisco Lindor	New York MetsNYM	1	Brandon Young	RHP	22.4%	69%	36%
TJ Rumfield	Colorado RockiesCOL	4	Casey Mize	RHP	24.2%	69%	33%
Bo Bichette	New York MetsNYM	3	Brandon Young	RHP	23.3%	69%	33%
Carson Benge	New York MetsNYM	4	Brandon Young	RHP	23.7%	69%	31%
Matt Olson	Atlanta BravesATL	3	David Peterson	LHP	22.8%	69%	35%
Dane Myers	Cincinnati RedsCIN	1	Tarik Skubal	LHP	23.0%	69%	34%
Jonah Cox	San Francisco GiantsSF	1	Quinn Mathews	LHP	22.5%	69%	34%
Michael Harris II	Atlanta BravesATL	5	David Peterson	LHP	23.5%	69%	33%
Ronald Acuña Jr.	Atlanta BravesATL	1	David Peterson	LHP	21.7%	69%	30%
Drake Baldwin	Atlanta BravesATL	2	David Peterson	LHP	22.1%	69%	32%
Tommy Edman	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	1	Nick Lodolo	LHP	21.9%	69%	38%
Pete Alonso	Baltimore OriolesBAL	2	Jonah Tong	RHP	22.8%	68%	41%
Juan Soto	New York MetsNYM	2	Brandon Young	RHP	22.3%	68%	39%
Jo Adell	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	4	Sean Newcomb	LHP	23.9%	68%	42%
George Springer	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	2	Troy Melton	RHP	23.2%	68%	34%
Jared Young	New York MetsNYM	5	Brandon Young	RHP	23.5%	68%	34%
Dylan Beavers	Baltimore OriolesBAL	1	Jonah Tong	RHP	22.0%	68%	36%

Extra Plays

The best outs and earned-run numbers on the board, same engine as the strikeout model. These sit outside the two-pick card above — they are newer markets for us, and we keep the opponent adjustment small on purpose, because this season's team splits are still mostly random.

David Peterson OVER 14.5 outs

vs Atlanta Braves · 14.7 base × 1.016 matchup → 15.4

64%fair odds -182

Tarik Skubal OVER 16.5 outs

vs Cincinnati Reds · 18.5 base × 0.985 matchup → 17.3

64%fair odds -175

Will Warren OVER 14.5 outs

vs Minnesota Twins · 15.5 base × 1.002 matchup → 15.3

61%fair odds -159

Troy Melton UNDER 2.5 ER

vs Toronto Blue Jays · we project 2.11 earned runs

66%fair odds -192

Reid Detmers UNDER 2.5 ER

vs Seattle Mariners · we project 2.21 earned runs

64%fair odds -175

Tomoyuki Sugano UNDER 3.5 ER

vs San Diego Padres · we project 3.13 earned runs

63%fair odds -169

W-L

Track Record

Every pick we post gets graded the next day against the box score — wins, losses and all — see every one →

All picks 130-81 (62%) · parlay 3-13 · -9.07 units at $100 a card

9/17 8-69/16 7-89/15 9-59/14 11-39/13 9-59/12 8-59/11 11-39/10 8-5

Newest first. Past results do not predict future outcomes.

Every past card (16)

Our own projections · odds shown are fair value with no house cut — not sportsbook prices
Analysis only · not gambling advice · 21+
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