Tonight's Card

Sep 12 Prop Picks

Sat · Sep 12, 2026 15-game slate · 28 starters Strikeouts · outs · earned runs · batters

Live record · since Sep 2 · 16 slates

130-81Picks graded

62%Hit rate

-9.1uUnits · $100/card

3-13Parlay record

Fair prices, not sportsbook prices. No house cut is built in, so your book will pay a little less — shop your own line before betting.

O+U

Tonight's Two

Our two biggest edges over the sportsbook's own price — one over, one under, from whichever market (strikeouts, outs, earned runs or hits) it shows up in. The line and the Mkt Edge are measured against a real book (pinnacle+bovada) wherever one has posted; where none has, we fall back to the nearest half-point line.

Tonight's Two fair odds +155 · 2.55×

Under Earned runs Michael King vs San Francisco Giants

Our Proj2.05 ER

PINNACLE2.5 ER

Mkt Edge+7%

Win %65%

Fair Odds-190

Over Outs Andrew Alvarez vs Los Angeles Angels

Our Proj15.1 outs

PINNACLE14.5 outs

Mkt Edge+5%

Win %60%

Fair Odds-149

$100 bet · fair odds

$255.33

if both picks hit

+$155.33 profit

Fair-odds payout, not a sportsbook payout. Each pick is priced at the chance we give it (-190 King × -149 Alvarez → +155 together, decimal 2.55). A real book takes its cut and will pay less than this.

PROPS EDGE · 2026-09-12 · our projection

On the Record

These 13 calls are the record. Everything else on this page is projection and context — useful for finding your own angle, but not scored. Tomorrow morning each row below is graded against the box score and the running track record moves by exactly these results, win or lose. Nothing is added afterwards and nothing quietly drops out.

Player	Source	Market	Pick	Line	Win %
Michael King	Tonight's Two	ER	Under	2.5	65%
Andrew Alvarez	Tonight's Two	OUTS	Over	14.5	60%
Tanner Gordon	Extra play	HITS	Under	6.5	64%
Brandon Pfaadt	Extra play	OUTS	Over	17.5	59%
Connor Prielipp	Extra play	K	Over	3.5	66%
Zac Thornton	Extra play	K	Over	3.5	66%
Michael King	Outs lean	OUTS	Over	16.5	64%
Walbert Ureña	Outs lean	OUTS	Over	15.5	59%
Andrew Alvarez	ER lean	ER	Under	2.5	67%
Tyler Glasnow	ER lean	ER	Under	2.5	67%
Kevin McGonigle	Batter	HIT	1+ Hit		72%
Hao-Yu Lee	Batter	HIT	1+ Hit		71%
Freddie Freeman	Batter	HIT	1+ Hit		71%

OVERUNDERtoo closehighest-confidence pick+6% edge over the booktap a row to star it

Strikeouts

All 28 probable starters, most projected strikeouts first — Proj K is tonight's number, Pick is the side against the nearest half-point line.

PitcherSP	Opp	St	K%	Opp K%	Proj KK	Pick	Confidence
Tyler Glasnow	Miami MarlinsMIA	10	28.3%	21.3%	6.0	UNDER 7.5· 64% +7%	med
Bryan Woo	AthleticsATH	27	24.9%	21.5%	5.8	OVER 5.5· 50% +2%	high
Gerrit Cole	New York MetsNYM	19	23.5%	22.0%	5.7	UNDER 5.5· 51% +0%	high
Ian Seymour	Houston AstrosHOU	13	29.0%	21.3%	5.7	UNDER 5.5· 52% +3%	med
Gage Jump	Seattle MarinersSEA	19	23.5%	23.9%	5.6	UNDER 5.5· 53% -5%	high
Andrew Sears ⚠	Colorado RockiesCOL	1	22.0%	24.4%	5.5	—	low
Paul Skenes	Chicago CubsCHC	29	25.3%	21.4%	5.5	UNDER 5.5· 54% -1%	high
Connor Prielipp	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	19	24.3%	22.1%	5.4	OVER 3.5· 66% +7%	high
Tyler Mahle	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	24	22.4%	22.1%	5.2	OVER 4.5· 57% +7%	high
Walbert Ureña	Washington NationalsWSH	24	22.6%	21.0%	5.0	OVER 4.5· 57%	high
Andrew Alvarez	Los Angeles AngelsLAA	14	22.5%	24.3%	5.0	UNDER 5.5· 63% +7%	med
Zac Thornton	New York YankeesNYY	12	20.6%	24.2%	4.9	OVER 3.5· 66% +7%	med
Michael King	San Francisco GiantsSF	29	20.7%	20.8%	4.9	OVER 4.5· 54% +1%	high
Kyle Leahy	Chicago White SoxCWS	27	23.4%	23.4%	4.9	OVER 4.5· 53%	high
Peter Lambert	Tampa Bay RaysTB	25	22.5%	19.2%	4.8	OVER 4.5· 48% +7%	high
Clay Holmes	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	15	19.1%	23.0%	4.7	UNDER 4.5· 51% -5%	high
Cesar Perdomo ⚠	San Diego PadresSD	1	22.3%	22.2%	4.5	—	low
Ranger Suarez	Kansas City RoyalsKC	25	20.6%	21.9%	4.4	UNDER 5.5· 63% +7%	high
Brady Singer	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	28	18.3%	21.7%	4.4	UNDER 4.5· 56% +1%	high
Kyle Bradish	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	28	20.6%	19.4%	4.3	OVER 3.5· 59% +2%	high
Randy Dobnak	Boston Red SoxBOS	10	19.4%	21.5%	4.3	OVER 3.5· 52% +7%	med
Kumar Rocker	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	24	21.5%	20.2%	4.3	OVER 3.5· 56% +7%	high
Brandon Pfaadt	Texas RangersTEX	16	17.2%	22.3%	4.3	UNDER 4.5· 57% +1%	high
Tanner Gordon	Detroit TigersDET	9	17.3%	22.6%	4.1	OVER 3.5· 58% +3%	low
Tyler Phillips	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	17	20.2%	20.9%	3.8	OVER 3.5· 52% -3%	high
Spencer Miles ⚠	Baltimore OriolesBAL	6	18.2%	23.3%	2.5	—	low
Sean Newcomb ⚠	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	4	23.8%	19.6%	1.5	—	low
Daniel Espino ⚠	Minnesota TwinsMIN	0	—%	—%	—	—	low

Hits Allowed

Hits we expect each starter to give up — Proj H is the number, the Pick is the side against the nearest half-point line.

PitcherSP	Opp	St	Hit%	Opp Hit%	Proj HH	Pick	Confidence
Brady Singer	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	28	23.55%	22.28%	5.82	OVER 5.5· 52% +3%	med
Kyle Bradish	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	28	22.29%	22.36%	5.4	UNDER 5.5· 55% +3%	med
Gerrit Cole	New York MetsNYM	19	21.8%	21.68%	5.29	OVER 4.5· 61% +6%	med
Tanner Gordon	Detroit TigersDET	9	24.18%	21.59%	5.29	UNDER 6.5· 64% +7%	low
Randy Dobnak	Boston Red SoxBOS	10	22.12%	21.77%	5.25	UNDER 5.5· 57% +3%	med
Brandon Pfaadt	Texas RangersTEX	16	21.7%	21.39%	5.25	UNDER 5.5· 53% +7%	med
Tyler Mahle	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	24	22.18%	21.71%	5.14	UNDER 5.5· 59%	med
Bryan Woo	AthleticsATH	27	21.25%	21.72%	5.13	UNDER 5.5· 56% +7%	med
Gage Jump	Seattle MarinersSEA	19	22.37%	21.08%	5.11	OVER 4.5· 58% -0%	med
Zac Thornton	New York YankeesNYY	12	22.42%	21.68%	5.09	UNDER 5.5· 60% +3%	med
Ranger Suarez	Kansas City RoyalsKC	25	21.76%	21.66%	5.07	OVER 4.5· 57% +0%	med
Connor Prielipp	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	19	22.25%	21.26%	4.97	OVER 4.5· 55% +0%	med
Peter Lambert	Tampa Bay RaysTB	25	20.53%	22.46%	4.94	UNDER 5.5· 61% +7%	med
Clay Holmes	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	15	20.59%	22.16%	4.93	OVER 4.5· 55% -4%	med
Andrew Sears ⚠	Colorado RockiesCOL	1	21.41%	21.77%	4.82	—	low
Kumar Rocker	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	24	22.56%	21.23%	4.82	OVER 4.5· 53% +1%	med
Paul Skenes	Chicago CubsCHC	29	21.21%	21.68%	4.68	OVER 4.5· 50% -2%	med
Michael King	San Francisco GiantsSF	29	20.14%	22.15%	4.66	UNDER 4.5· 48% +7%	med
Ian Seymour	Houston AstrosHOU	13	22.29%	21.54%	4.46	UNDER 4.5· 54% +2%	med
Andrew Alvarez	Los Angeles AngelsLAA	14	20.88%	21.52%	4.33	UNDER 4.5· 56% +1%	med
Kyle Leahy	Chicago White SoxCWS	27	23.21%	21.31%	4.31	UNDER 4.5· 57%	med
Walbert Ureña	Washington NationalsWSH	24	19.08%	21.56%	4.28	UNDER 4.5· 57%	med
Tyler Phillips	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	17	22.05%	22.17%	4.19	UNDER 4.5· 52% +7%	med
Tyler Glasnow	Miami MarlinsMIA	10	19.86%	22.09%	4.12	UNDER 4.5· 61% +4%	med
Cesar Perdomo ⚠	San Diego PadresSD	1	21.34%	21.61%	4.01	—	low
Spencer Miles ⚠	Baltimore OriolesBAL	6	22.88%	21.24%	2.88	—	low
Sean Newcomb ⚠	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	4	20.79%	21.55%	1.47	—	low
Daniel Espino ⚠	Minnesota TwinsMIN	0	—%	—%	—	—	low

OUT

Outs Recorded

How deep into the game we expect each starter to go, in outs (3 outs = 1 inning). Blank where his outings are too up-and-down to price.

PitcherSP	Opp	St	IP/St	Proj OutsOuts	Pick	Confidence
Brandon Pfaadt	Texas RangersTEX	16	6.0	18.0	OVER 17.5· 59% +4%	high
Gerrit Cole	New York MetsNYM	19	5.84	17.5	OVER 17.5· 52% -3%	high
Michael King	San Francisco GiantsSF	29	5.79	17.3	UNDER 17.5· 51% +5%	high
Cesar Perdomo ⚠	San Diego PadresSD	1	6.0	17.3	—	low
Tyler Mahle	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	24	5.46	17.0	OVER 16.5· 54% +7%	high
Clay Holmes	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	15	5.73	16.8	OVER 16.5· 53% +7%	high
Bryan Woo	AthleticsATH	27	5.79	16.7	UNDER 17.5· 47% +7%	high
Andrew Sears ⚠	Colorado RockiesCOL	1	5.7	16.5	—	low
Walbert Ureña	Washington NationalsWSH	24	5.4	16.2	UNDER 16.5· 51%	high
Randy Dobnak	Boston Red SoxBOS	10	5.4	16.0	OVER 15.5· 53% +7%	med
Zac Thornton	New York YankeesNYY	12	5.52	15.8	OVER 15.5· 50% +7%	med
Ranger Suarez	Kansas City RoyalsKC	25	5.23	15.8	UNDER 17.5· 54% +7%	high
Peter Lambert	Tampa Bay RaysTB	25	5.59	15.7	UNDER 16.5· 55% +7%	high
Kyle Bradish	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	28	5.43	15.7	UNDER 16.5· 54% +7%	high
Tyler Glasnow	Miami MarlinsMIA	10	5.77	15.5	UNDER 17.5· 52% +7%	med
Tanner Gordon	Detroit TigersDET	9	5.0	15.5	OVER 15.5· 52% +2%	low
Gage Jump	Seattle MarinersSEA	19	5.09	15.1	UNDER 15.5· 53% -8%	high
Andrew Alvarez	Los Angeles AngelsLAA	14	4.88	15.1	OVER 14.5· 60% +5%	med
Brady Singer	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	28	5.24	15.1	UNDER 15.5· 53% +2%	high
Ian Seymour	Houston AstrosHOU	13	4.69	14.8	UNDER 16.5· 55% +7%	med
Connor Prielipp	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	19	5.21	14.8	OVER 14.5· 56% +1%	high
Paul Skenes	Chicago CubsCHC	29	5.34	14.7	UNDER 15.5· 56% +1%	high
Tyler Phillips	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	17	4.63	14.1	OVER 13.5· 58% +6%	high
Kyle Leahy	Chicago White SoxCWS	27	4.89	14.0	UNDER 14.5· 55%	high
Kumar Rocker	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	24	4.88	13.1	UNDER 14.5· 49% +7%	high
Spencer Miles ⚠	Baltimore OriolesBAL	6	2.83	—	—	low
Sean Newcomb ⚠	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	4	2.08	—	—	low
Daniel Espino ⚠	Minnesota TwinsMIN	0	—	—	—	low

Earned Runs

Runs we expect each starter to give up. Priced against a whole-run line (1.5 / 2.5 / 3.5). This is the noisiest of the three markets, so confidence never goes above med.

PitcherSP	Opp	St	Proj ERER	Pick	Confidence
Brady Singer	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	28	2.89	OVER 2.5· 51% -2%	med
Connor Prielipp	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	19	2.69	UNDER 2.5· 53% -6%	med
Bryan Woo	AthleticsATH	27	2.58	UNDER 2.5· 56% +3%	med
Gage Jump	Seattle MarinersSEA	19	2.58	UNDER 2.5· 55% +7%	med
Tanner Gordon	Detroit TigersDET	9	2.48	UNDER 2.5· 52% +7%	low
Tyler Mahle	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	24	2.40	UNDER 2.5· 59%	med
Peter Lambert	Tampa Bay RaysTB	25	2.37	UNDER 2.5· 57% +7%	med
Paul Skenes	Chicago CubsCHC	29	2.36	UNDER 2.5· 60% +5%	med
Kyle Bradish	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	28	2.35	UNDER 2.5· 61% +7%	med
Gerrit Cole	New York MetsNYM	19	2.34	UNDER 2.5· 61% +3%	med
Kumar Rocker	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	24	2.33	UNDER 2.5· 61% +7%	med
Zac Thornton	New York YankeesNYY	12	2.30	UNDER 2.5· 57% +7%	med
Brandon Pfaadt	Texas RangersTEX	16	2.24	UNDER 2.5· 54% +7%	med
Ranger Suarez	Kansas City RoyalsKC	25	2.23	OVER 1.5· 59% +4%	med
Clay Holmes	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	15	2.22	UNDER 2.5· 63% +7%	med
Ian Seymour	Houston AstrosHOU	13	2.20	OVER 1.5· 58% +0%	med
Andrew Sears ⚠	Colorado RockiesCOL	1	2.20	—	low
Randy Dobnak	Boston Red SoxBOS	10	2.15	UNDER 2.5· 57% +7%	med
Tyler Phillips	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	17	2.06	UNDER 2.5· 62% +7%	med
Tyler Glasnow	Miami MarlinsMIA	10	2.05	OVER 1.5· 55% +1%	med
Michael King	San Francisco GiantsSF	29	2.05	UNDER 2.5· 65% +7%	med
Andrew Alvarez	Los Angeles AngelsLAA	14	2.03	OVER 1.5· 54% -3%	med
Walbert Ureña	Washington NationalsWSH	24	1.99	OVER 1.5· 53%	med
Cesar Perdomo ⚠	San Diego PadresSD	1	1.81	—	low
Kyle Leahy	Chicago White SoxCWS	27	1.80	UNDER 1.5· 52%	med
Spencer Miles ⚠	Baltimore OriolesBAL	6	1.45	—	low
Sean Newcomb ⚠	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	4	0.68	—	low
Daniel Espino ⚠	Minnesota TwinsMIN	0	—	—	low

BAT

Batter Props

133 batters across 9 posted lineups, best chances first. 1+ Hit and 1+ RBI are the odds he gets at least one tonight. The three marked PICK are our strongest 1+ Hit calls and are graded into the track record. Lineups post 3–4 hours before first pitch, so late games may still be missing.

Batter	Team	#	Opp SP	vs	Hit%	1+ HitHit	1+ RBIRBI
PICK Kevin McGonigle	Detroit TigersDET	1	Tanner Gordon	RHP	22.8%	72%	34%
PICK Hao-Yu Lee	Detroit TigersDET	2	Tanner Gordon	RHP	22.4%	71%	36%
PICK Freddie Freeman	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	2	Tyler Phillips	RHP	23.6%	71%	35%
Paul Goldschmidt	New York YankeesNYY	1	Zac Thornton	LHP	22.8%	70%	36%
Brett Bateman	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	1	Kyle Bradish	RHP	22.9%	70%	33%
Colt Keith	Detroit TigersDET	3	Tanner Gordon	RHP	22.7%	70%	32%
Riley Greene	Detroit TigersDET	4	Tanner Gordon	RHP	22.9%	70%	34%
Jake McCarthy	Colorado RockiesCOL	1	Andrew Sears	LHP	23.1%	70%	37%
Dylan Beavers	Baltimore OriolesBAL	1	Spencer Miles	RHP	22.1%	69%	35%
Tommy Edman	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	1	Tyler Phillips	RHP	22.5%	69%	34%
Luke Keaschall	Minnesota TwinsMIN	1	Daniel Espino	RHP	22.4%	69%	33%
Pete Alonso	Baltimore OriolesBAL	2	Spencer Miles	RHP	22.3%	69%	38%
Brooks Lee	Minnesota TwinsMIN	2	Daniel Espino	RHP	22.8%	69%	37%
George Springer	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	2	Kyle Bradish	RHP	22.5%	69%	34%
Pete Crow-Armstrong	Chicago CubsCHC	1	Paul Skenes	RHP	22.6%	69%	37%
Mickey Gasper	Boston Red SoxBOS	2	Randy Dobnak	RHP	22.4%	69%	35%
Zach Neto	Los Angeles AngelsLAA	1	Andrew Alvarez	LHP	22.7%	68%	35%
Francisco Lindor	New York MetsNYM	1	Gerrit Cole	RHP	22.1%	68%	34%
Eduardo Valencia	Detroit TigersDET	5	Tanner Gordon	RHP	22.5%	68%	33%
Cody Bellinger	New York YankeesNYY	3	Zac Thornton	LHP	22.5%	68%	34%
Roman Anthony	Boston Red SoxBOS	1	Randy Dobnak	RHP	21.8%	68%	33%
Bo Bichette	New York MetsNYM	3	Gerrit Cole	RHP	22.9%	68%	33%
Bobby Witt Jr.	Kansas City RoyalsKC	2	Ranger Suarez	LHP	22.4%	68%	33%
Nathan Lukes	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	5	Kyle Bradish	RHP	23.4%	68%	32%

Extra Plays

The best outs and earned-run numbers on the board, same engine as the strikeout model. These sit outside the two-pick card above — they are newer markets for us, and we keep the opponent adjustment small on purpose, because this season's team splits are still mostly random.

Michael King OVER 16.5 outs

vs San Francisco Giants · 17.9 base × 1.007 matchup → 17.3

64%fair odds -177

Andrew Alvarez OVER 14.5 outs

vs Los Angeles Angels · 14.9 base × 1.002 matchup → 15.1

60%fair odds -149

Walbert Ureña OVER 15.5 outs

vs Washington Nationals · 16.7 base × 1.009 matchup → 16.2

59%fair odds -144

Andrew Alvarez UNDER 2.5 ER

vs Los Angeles Angels · we project 2.03 earned runs

67%fair odds -207

Tyler Glasnow UNDER 2.5 ER

vs Miami Marlins · we project 2.05 earned runs

67%fair odds -203

Michael King UNDER 2.5 ER

vs San Francisco Giants · we project 2.05 earned runs

67%fair odds -203

W-L

Track Record

Every pick we post gets graded the next day against the box score — wins, losses and all — see every one →

All picks 130-81 (62%) · parlay 3-13 · -9.07 units at $100 a card

9/17 8-69/16 7-89/15 9-59/14 11-39/13 9-59/12 8-59/11 11-39/10 8-5

Newest first. Past results do not predict future outcomes.

Every past card (16)

Our own projections · odds shown are fair value with no house cut — not sportsbook prices
Analysis only · not gambling advice · 21+
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