Today's Card

Sep 7 Prop Picks

Mon · Sep 7, 2026 11-game slate · 19 starters Strikeouts · outs · earned runs · batters

These are our numbers, not a sportsbook's. Every price on this page is a fair price — what the bet is worth with no house cut built in. A real book keeps a margin, so it will pay less than what you see here. Shop your own book's line before betting.

O+U

Tonight's Two

Our two biggest edges over the sportsbook's own price — one over, one under, from whichever market (strikeouts, outs, earned runs or hits) it shows up in. The line and the Mkt Edge are measured against a real book (bovada) wherever one has posted; where none has, we fall back to the nearest half-point line.

Tonight's Two fair odds +195 · 2.95×

Under
            Hits
            Grayson Rodriguez
            vs Boston Red Sox
Our Proj5.16 hits
Line5.5 hits
Edge-0.3
Win %59%
Fair Odds-143
own 22.49% hit rate × Boston Red Sox 21.76% → adjusted 23.36% × 22.1 BF

Over
            Strikeouts
            Jesús Luzardo
            vs Atlanta Braves
Our Proj7.3 Ks
Line6.5 Ks
Edge+0.8
Win %58%
Fair Odds-136
own 30.4% K rate × Atlanta Braves 21.2% vs LHP → adjusted 28.9%

$100 bet · fair odds

$294.85

if both picks hit

+$194.85 profit

Fair-odds payout, not a sportsbook payout. Each pick is priced at the chance we give it (-143 Rodriguez × -136 Luzardo → +195 together, decimal 2.95). A real book takes its cut and will pay less than this.

PROPS EDGE · 2026-09-07 · our projection

Strikeouts

All 19 probable starters, most projected strikeouts first. Proj K is how many we expect him to get tonight; the Pick column is the side we'd take against the nearest half-point line, with our win chance beside it.

How we get the number

K% is how often the pitcher strikes a batter out over his own starts. Opp K% is how often that lineup strikes out against this hand. Adj K% blends the two — a strikeout pitcher facing a contact lineup lands between them, not at either extreme. Multiply that by BF/St (batters he faces in a typical start) and you get Proj K. Win chance comes from how far past the line the projection sits, scored against 2,130 completed 2026 starts, so it reflects how often we've actually been right by that margin — not a textbook curve.

we like the OVERwe like the UNDERtoo close to callbright = strong pick, faded = slight edge+6% = our edge over the book's pricetap a row to star it

PitcherSP	Opp	St	K%	Opp K%	Adj K%	BF/St	Proj KK	Pick	Confidence
Dylan Cease	AthleticsATH	26	33.5%	21.6%	33.8%	23.9	8.0	OVER 7.5· 55%	high
Jesús Luzardo	Atlanta BravesATL	28	30.4%	21.2%	28.9%	24.9	7.3	OVER 6.5· 58%	high
Chase Burns	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	26	28.4%	20.9%	27.5%	22.8	6.3	UNDER 6.5· 57%	high
Eury Pérez	New York MetsNYM	25	24.8%	22.2%	25.6%	22.2	5.7	UNDER 5.5· 51%	high
Joey Cantillo	Baltimore OriolesBAL	29	23.7%	25.4%	26.8%	21.3	5.6	UNDER 5.5· 52%	high
Trevor Rogers	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	26	23.5%	22.1%	23.1%	23.2	5.4	UNDER 5.5· 55%	high
Jake Irvin	San Diego PadresSD	18	22.6%	21.6%	23.0%	21.1	5.0	OVER 4.5· 56%	high
Nick Pivetta ⚠	Washington NationalsWSH	4	30.0%	20.9%	29.6%	16.5	4.9	—	low
Jacob Lopez	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	20	23.4%	20.7%	21.9%	21.3	4.9	OVER 4.5· 51%	high
Grayson Rodriguez	Boston Red SoxBOS	16	22.1%	21.5%	21.5%	21.8	4.7	UNDER 4.5· 51%	high
Robert Gasser	Chicago CubsCHC	16	21.7%	21.6%	20.9%	22.1	4.6	UNDER 4.5· 52%	high
Troy Melton	Minnesota TwinsMIN	17	19.8%	20.8%	19.2%	23.9	4.6	UNDER 4.5· 52%	high
Logan Webb	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	25	18.7%	21.6%	19.1%	24.8	4.6	UNDER 4.5· 52%	high
Noah Cameron	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	26	20.4%	19.1%	17.3%	24.0	4.1	OVER 3.5· 55%	high
Matthew Boyd	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	18	17.9%	21.5%	17.1%	23.5	4.1	OVER 3.5· 57%	high
Michael McGreevy	San Francisco GiantsSF	27	17.3%	20.8%	17.0%	22.5	3.9	OVER 3.5· 54%	high
Grant Holmes	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	26	17.4%	21.9%	17.6%	21.1	3.6	UNDER 3.5· 52%	high
Jonah Tong ⚠	Miami MarlinsMIA	0	—%	—%	—%	—	—	—	low
Derek Law ⚠	Kansas City RoyalsKC	0	—%	—%	—%	—	—	—	low

Hits Allowed

Hits we expect each starter to give up. Same idea as strikeouts, flipped — Proj H is the number, the Pick is the side against the nearest half-point line.

How we get the number

Hit% is how often a batter gets a hit off this pitcher over his own starts. Opp Hit% is how often that lineup gets a hit against this hand. Adj Hit% blends the two, then nudges for the ballpark — hit and run environments move together. Multiply by BF/St (batters faced in a typical start) and you get Proj H. Win chance is scored the same way as the other markets, against completed 2026 starts.

we like the OVERwe like the UNDERtoo close to callbright = strong pick, faded = slight edge+6% = our edge over the book's pricetap a row to star it

PitcherSP	Opp	St	Hit%	Opp Hit%	Adj Hit%	BF/St	Proj HH	Pick	Confidence
Jesús Luzardo	Atlanta BravesATL	28	21.02%	21.84%	21.48%	24.9	5.43	UNDER 5.5· 54%	med
Noah Cameron	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	26	21.88%	22.19%	22.27%	24.0	5.34	UNDER 5.5· 56%	med
Trevor Rogers	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	26	22.41%	21.43%	22.47%	23.2	5.25	UNDER 5.5· 57%	med
Matthew Boyd	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	18	22.0%	21.72%	21.92%	23.5	5.2	UNDER 5.5· 58%	med
Grayson Rodriguez	Boston Red SoxBOS	16	22.49%	21.76%	23.36%	21.8	5.16	UNDER 5.5· 59%	med
Jacob Lopez	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	20	21.52%	21.58%	22.37%	21.3	4.96	OVER 4.5· 55%	med
Michael McGreevy	San Francisco GiantsSF	27	22.59%	22.08%	21.51%	22.5	4.95	OVER 4.5· 55%	med
Logan Webb	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	25	21.83%	21.8%	20.53%	24.8	4.94	OVER 4.5· 55%	med
Troy Melton	Minnesota TwinsMIN	17	20.86%	21.95%	20.38%	23.9	4.91	OVER 4.5· 54%	med
Robert Gasser	Chicago CubsCHC	16	21.96%	22.02%	22.18%	22.1	4.9	OVER 4.5· 54%	med
Chase Burns	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	26	21.08%	22.12%	21.41%	22.8	4.89	OVER 4.5· 54%	med
Dylan Cease	AthleticsATH	26	19.35%	21.75%	20.29%	23.9	4.82	OVER 4.5· 53%	med
Joey Cantillo	Baltimore OriolesBAL	29	21.96%	21.68%	22.27%	21.3	4.67	UNDER 4.5· 50%	med
Grant Holmes	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	26	21.56%	21.75%	21.95%	21.1	4.49	UNDER 4.5· 53%	med
Jake Irvin	San Diego PadresSD	18	21.58%	21.41%	20.15%	21.1	4.33	UNDER 4.5· 56%	med
Eury Pérez	New York MetsNYM	25	20.46%	21.59%	19.46%	22.2	4.3	UNDER 4.5· 57%	med
Nick Pivetta ⚠	Washington NationalsWSH	4	21.56%	21.67%	20.36%	16.5	3.36	—	low
Jonah Tong ⚠	Miami MarlinsMIA	0	—%	—%	—%	—	—	—	low
Derek Law ⚠	Kansas City RoyalsKC	0	—%	—%	—%	—	—	—	low

OUT

Outs Recorded

How deep into the game we expect each starter to go, in outs (3 outs = 1 inning). Blank where his outings are too up-and-down to price.

How we get the number

IP/St is innings per start this year, and Base is that turned into outs with recent form weighted heavier. Matchup is the opponent nudge — how much traffic that lineup puts on and how many pitches it makes him throw. It is deliberately a small adjustment: team on-base splits this season are mostly random, so we lean on the pitcher's own workload rather than invent a matchup edge the data doesn't support.

we like the OVERwe like the UNDERtoo close to callbright = strong pick, faded = slight edge+6% = our edge over the book's pricetap a row to star it

PitcherSP	Opp	St	IP/St	Base	Matchup	Proj OutsOuts	Pick	Confidence
Jesús Luzardo	Atlanta BravesATL	28	6.06	18.7	×1.015 -0.5	18.4	OVER 18.5· 51%	high
Troy Melton	Minnesota TwinsMIN	17	6.02	17.7	×1.002 -0.4	17.4	OVER 17.5· 51%	high
Noah Cameron	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	26	5.67	17.4	×0.991 -0.1	17.2	UNDER 17.5· 51%	high
Dylan Cease	AthleticsATH	26	6.01	18.0	×1.003 -0.9	17.1	UNDER 17.5· 53%	high
Trevor Rogers	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	26	5.55	16.8	×0.997 -0.0	16.8	UNDER 17.5· 56%	high
Logan Webb	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	25	5.99	17.0	×1.007 -0.3	16.8	UNDER 17.5· 54%	high
Matthew Boyd	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	18	5.68	17.3	×0.987 -0.6	16.5	OVER 16.5· 52%	high
Eury Pérez	New York MetsNYM	25	5.41	16.0	×1.005 -0.1	16.0	UNDER 16.5· 54%	high
Jacob Lopez	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	20	4.81	15.5	×1.008 +0.3	16.0	UNDER 16.5· 54%	high
Michael McGreevy	San Francisco GiantsSF	27	5.46	16.3	×1.008 -0.5	15.9	UNDER 16.5· 56%	high
Chase Burns	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	26	5.59	16.5	×0.977 -1.1	15.1	UNDER 15.5· 55%	high
Grayson Rodriguez	Boston Red SoxBOS	16	4.86	15.0	×1.011 -0.2	15.0	UNDER 15.5· 54%	high
Robert Gasser	Chicago CubsCHC	16	5.08	15.0	×0.986 -0.0	14.8	OVER 14.5· 55%	high
Grant Holmes	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	26	4.91	14.6	×1.008 +0.0	14.7	OVER 14.5· 55%	high
Joey Cantillo	Baltimore OriolesBAL	29	4.89	14.4	×0.993	14.3	OVER 14.5· 50%	high
Jake Irvin	San Diego PadresSD	18	4.76	14.3	×1.000 -0.3	14.0	UNDER 14.5· 55%	high
Nick Pivetta ⚠	Washington NationalsWSH	4	4.0	12.0	×1.007 -0.8	—	—	low
Jonah Tong ⚠	Miami MarlinsMIA	0	—	—	—	—	—	low
Derek Law ⚠	Kansas City RoyalsKC	0	—	—	—	—	—	low

Earned Runs

Runs we expect each starter to give up. Priced against a whole-run line (1.5 / 2.5 / 3.5). This is the noisiest of the three markets, so confidence never goes above med.

How we get the number

ER Rate is earned runs per batter faced across his starts, pulled toward the league average when he hasn't thrown much — a small sample shouldn't get treated like a full season. Opp× scales it by how well that lineup scores against this hand, Park× by the ballpark. Multiply through by batters faced and you get Proj ER. We price it as a count that can blow up — one bad inning is most of a bad night — rather than assuming runs trickle in evenly.

we like the OVERwe like the UNDERtoo close to callbright = strong pick, faded = slight edge+6% = our edge over the book's pricetap a row to star it

PitcherSP	Opp	St	ER Rate	Opp×	Park×	Proj ERER	Pick	Confidence
Grayson Rodriguez	Boston Red SoxBOS	16	12.73%	×0.991	×1.04	2.90	OVER 2.5· 50%	med
Noah Cameron	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	26	10.88%	×1.028	×1.00	2.68	UNDER 2.5· 54%	med
Robert Gasser	Chicago CubsCHC	16	11.25%	×1.046	×1.00	2.60	UNDER 2.5· 56%	med
Trevor Rogers	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	26	11.01%	×0.976	×1.02	2.56	UNDER 2.5· 56%	med
Matthew Boyd	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	18	10.57%	×0.993	×1.00	2.49	UNDER 2.5· 58%	med
Jake Irvin	San Diego PadresSD	18	12.28%	×0.985	×0.95	2.47	UNDER 2.5· 58%	med
Jacob Lopez	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	20	10.94%	×0.968	×1.05	2.47	UNDER 2.5· 58%	med
Logan Webb	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	25	10.90%	×0.979	×0.94	2.41	UNDER 2.5· 59%	med
Michael McGreevy	San Francisco GiantsSF	27	10.51%	×1.003	×0.94	2.28	UNDER 2.5· 62%	med
Jesús Luzardo	Atlanta BravesATL	28	8.76%	×0.992	×1.02	2.24	UNDER 2.5· 63%	med
Joey Cantillo	Baltimore OriolesBAL	29	9.86%	×0.995	×1.02	2.10	UNDER 2.5· 66%	med
Eury Pérez	New York MetsNYM	25	10.09%	×0.974	×0.96	2.09	UNDER 2.5· 66%	med
Grant Holmes	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	26	9.83%	×0.985	×1.02	2.02	UNDER 2.5· 68%	med
Chase Burns	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	26	8.44%	×1.036	×1.00	2.00	OVER 1.5· 53%	med
Dylan Cease	AthleticsATH	26	7.51%	×1.001	×1.05	1.88	OVER 1.5· 50%	med
Troy Melton	Minnesota TwinsMIN	17	7.82%	×1.015	×0.97	1.85	UNDER 1.5· 51%	med
Nick Pivetta ⚠	Washington NationalsWSH	4	10.49%	×1.015	×0.95	1.67	—	low
Jonah Tong ⚠	Miami MarlinsMIA	0	—	—	—	—	—	low
Derek Law ⚠	Kansas City RoyalsKC	0	—	—	—	—	—	low

BAT

Batter Props

18 batters across 2 posted lineups, best chances first. 1+ Hit and 1+ RBI are the odds he gets at least one tonight. Lineups post 3–4 hours before first pitch, so late games may still be missing.

How we get the number

Hit% is how often this batter gets a hit against pitchers of this hand. Adj folds in how many hits tonight's starter actually gives up. PA is how many times he should come to the plate, from his spot in the order — and we split those trips between the starter and the bullpen using how deep we expect the starter to go, because the reliever he faces in the 8th is a different problem than the starter he faces in the 1st. RBI is priced to allow for bunching: a three-run homer is one plate appearance, not three.

we like the OVERwe like the UNDERtoo close to callbright = strong pick, faded = slight edge+6% = our edge over the book's pricetap a row to star it

Batter	Team	#	Opp SP	vs	Hit%	Adj	PA	1+ HitHit	1+ RBIRBI
Otto Lopez	Miami MarlinsMIA	4	Jonah Tong	RHP	24.6%	24.6%	4.35	71%	30%
Ketel Marte	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	2	Noah Cameron	LHP	23.4%	22.9%	4.55	70%	41%
Kyle Stowers	Miami MarlinsMIA	1	Jonah Tong	RHP	22.5%	22.5%	4.65	70%	39%
Geraldo Perdomo	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	1	Noah Cameron	LHP	22.2%	21.8%	4.65	68%	33%
Gabriel Moreno	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	3	Noah Cameron	LHP	22.8%	22.4%	4.45	68%	42%
Griffin Conine	Miami MarlinsMIA	3	Jonah Tong	RHP	22.2%	22.2%	4.45	67%	38%
Ildemaro Vargas	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	6	Noah Cameron	LHP	23.9%	23.4%	4.15	67%	39%
Javier Sanoja	Miami MarlinsMIA	6	Jonah Tong	RHP	23.5%	23.5%	4.15	67%	35%
Heriberto Hernández	Miami MarlinsMIA	2	Jonah Tong	RHP	21.4%	21.4%	4.55	67%	37%
Nolan Arenado	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	4	Noah Cameron	LHP	22.1%	21.6%	4.35	66%	33%
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	5	Noah Cameron	LHP	21.9%	21.5%	4.25	64%	32%
Jordan Lawlar	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	8	Noah Cameron	LHP	22.8%	22.4%	3.95	64%	34%
Jakob Marsee	Miami MarlinsMIA	5	Jonah Tong	RHP	20.9%	20.9%	4.25	63%	25%
Ryan Waldschmidt	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	9	Noah Cameron	LHP	23.0%	22.6%	3.85	63%	28%
Tim Tawa	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	7	Noah Cameron	LHP	21.9%	21.5%	4.05	63%	29%
Joe Mack	Miami MarlinsMIA	9	Jonah Tong	RHP	22.4%	22.4%	3.85	62%	34%
Owen Caissie	Miami MarlinsMIA	7	Jonah Tong	RHP	21.2%	21.2%	4.05	62%	39%
Graham Pauley	Miami MarlinsMIA	8	Jonah Tong	RHP	21.4%	21.4%	3.95	61%	33%

Extra Plays

The best outs and earned-run numbers on the board, same engine as the strikeout model. These sit outside the two-pick card above — they are newer markets for us, and we keep the opponent adjustment small on purpose, because this season's team splits are still mostly random.

Matthew Boyd OVER 15.5 outs

vs Milwaukee Brewers · 17.3 base × 0.987 matchup → 16.5

64%fair odds -180

Troy Melton OVER 16.5 outs

vs Minnesota Twins · 17.7 base × 1.002 matchup → 17.4

64%fair odds -174

Jesús Luzardo OVER 17.5 outs

vs Atlanta Braves · 18.7 base × 1.015 matchup → 18.4

63%fair odds -171

Grant Holmes UNDER 2.5 ER

vs Philadelphia Phillies · we project 2.02 earned runs

68%fair odds -210

Eury Pérez UNDER 2.5 ER

vs New York Mets · we project 2.09 earned runs

66%fair odds -196

Joey Cantillo UNDER 2.5 ER

vs Baltimore Orioles · we project 2.10 earned runs

66%fair odds -194

W-L

Track Record

Every pick we post gets graded the next day against the box score — wins, losses and all — see every one →

All picks 45-39 (54%) · parlay 1-6 · -5.13 units at $100 a card

9/8 7-59/7 7-59/6 9-39/5 3-99/4 5-79/3 6-69/2 8-4

Newest first. Past results do not predict future outcomes.

Every past card (8)

Our own projections · odds shown are fair value with no house cut — not sportsbook prices
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