Tonight's Card

Sep 7 Prop Picks

Mon · Sep 7, 2026 11-game slate · 19 starters Strikeouts · outs · earned runs · batters

Live record · since Sep 2 · 16 slates

130-81Picks graded

62%Hit rate

-9.1uUnits · $100/card

3-13Parlay record

Fair prices, not sportsbook prices. No house cut is built in, so your book will pay a little less — shop your own line before betting.

O+U

Tonight's Two

Our two biggest edges over the sportsbook's own price — one over, one under, from whichever market (strikeouts, outs, earned runs or hits) it shows up in. The line and the Mkt Edge are measured against a real book (bovada) wherever one has posted; where none has, we fall back to the nearest half-point line.

Tonight's Two fair odds +195 · 2.95×

Under Hits Grayson Rodriguez vs Boston Red Sox

Our Proj5.16 hits

Line5.5 hits

Edge-0.3

Win %59%

Fair Odds-143

Over Strikeouts Jesús Luzardo vs Atlanta Braves

Our Proj7.3 Ks

Line6.5 Ks

Edge+0.8

Win %58%

Fair Odds-136

$100 bet · fair odds

$294.85

if both picks hit

+$194.85 profit

Fair-odds payout, not a sportsbook payout. Each pick is priced at the chance we give it (-143 Rodriguez × -136 Luzardo → +195 together, decimal 2.95). A real book takes its cut and will pay less than this.

PROPS EDGE · 2026-09-07 · our projection

On the Record

These 12 calls are the record. Everything else on this page is projection and context — useful for finding your own angle, but not scored. Tomorrow morning each row below is graded against the box score and the running track record moves by exactly these results, win or lose. Nothing is added afterwards and nothing quietly drops out.

Player	Source	Market	Pick	Line	Win %
Grayson Rodriguez	Tonight's Two	HITS	Under	5.5	59%
Jesús Luzardo	Tonight's Two	K	Over	6.5	58%
Grant Holmes	Extra play	ER	Under	2.5	68%
Matthew Boyd	Extra play	K	Over	3.5	57%
Eury Pérez	Extra play	ER	Under	2.5	66%
Joey Cantillo	Extra play	ER	Under	2.5	66%
Matthew Boyd	Outs lean	OUTS	Over	15.5	64%
Troy Melton	Outs lean	OUTS	Over	16.5	64%
Jesús Luzardo	Outs lean	OUTS	Over	17.5	63%
Otto Lopez	Batter	HIT	1+ Hit		71%
Ketel Marte	Batter	HIT	1+ Hit		70%
Kyle Stowers	Batter	HIT	1+ Hit		70%

OVERUNDERtoo closehighest-confidence pick+6% edge over the booktap a row to star it

Strikeouts

All 19 probable starters, most projected strikeouts first — Proj K is tonight's number, Pick is the side against the nearest half-point line.

PitcherSP	Opp	St	K%	Opp K%	Proj KK	Pick	Confidence
Dylan Cease	AthleticsATH	26	33.5%	21.6%	8.0	OVER 7.5· 55%	high
Jesús Luzardo	Atlanta BravesATL	28	30.4%	21.2%	7.3	OVER 6.5· 58%	high
Chase Burns	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	26	28.4%	20.9%	6.3	UNDER 6.5· 57%	high
Eury Pérez	New York MetsNYM	25	24.8%	22.2%	5.7	UNDER 5.5· 51%	high
Joey Cantillo	Baltimore OriolesBAL	29	23.7%	25.4%	5.6	UNDER 5.5· 52%	high
Trevor Rogers	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	26	23.5%	22.1%	5.4	UNDER 5.5· 55%	high
Jake Irvin	San Diego PadresSD	18	22.6%	21.6%	5.0	OVER 4.5· 56%	high
Nick Pivetta ⚠	Washington NationalsWSH	4	30.0%	20.9%	4.9	—	low
Jacob Lopez	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	20	23.4%	20.7%	4.9	OVER 4.5· 51%	high
Grayson Rodriguez	Boston Red SoxBOS	16	22.1%	21.5%	4.7	UNDER 4.5· 51%	high
Robert Gasser	Chicago CubsCHC	16	21.7%	21.6%	4.6	UNDER 4.5· 52%	high
Troy Melton	Minnesota TwinsMIN	17	19.8%	20.8%	4.6	UNDER 4.5· 52%	high
Logan Webb	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	25	18.7%	21.6%	4.6	UNDER 4.5· 52%	high
Noah Cameron	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	26	20.4%	19.1%	4.1	OVER 3.5· 55%	high
Matthew Boyd	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	18	17.9%	21.5%	4.1	OVER 3.5· 57%	high
Michael McGreevy	San Francisco GiantsSF	27	17.3%	20.8%	3.9	OVER 3.5· 54%	high
Grant Holmes	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	26	17.4%	21.9%	3.6	UNDER 3.5· 52%	high
Jonah Tong ⚠	Miami MarlinsMIA	0	—%	—%	—	—	low
Derek Law ⚠	Kansas City RoyalsKC	0	—%	—%	—	—	low

Hits Allowed

Hits we expect each starter to give up — Proj H is the number, the Pick is the side against the nearest half-point line.

PitcherSP	Opp	St	Hit%	Opp Hit%	Proj HH	Pick	Confidence
Jesús Luzardo	Atlanta BravesATL	28	21.02%	21.84%	5.43	UNDER 5.5· 54%	med
Noah Cameron	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	26	21.88%	22.19%	5.34	UNDER 5.5· 56%	med
Trevor Rogers	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	26	22.41%	21.43%	5.25	UNDER 5.5· 57%	med
Matthew Boyd	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	18	22.0%	21.72%	5.2	UNDER 5.5· 58%	med
Grayson Rodriguez	Boston Red SoxBOS	16	22.49%	21.76%	5.16	UNDER 5.5· 59%	med
Jacob Lopez	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	20	21.52%	21.58%	4.96	OVER 4.5· 55%	med
Michael McGreevy	San Francisco GiantsSF	27	22.59%	22.08%	4.95	OVER 4.5· 55%	med
Logan Webb	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	25	21.83%	21.8%	4.94	OVER 4.5· 55%	med
Troy Melton	Minnesota TwinsMIN	17	20.86%	21.95%	4.91	OVER 4.5· 54%	med
Robert Gasser	Chicago CubsCHC	16	21.96%	22.02%	4.9	OVER 4.5· 54%	med
Chase Burns	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	26	21.08%	22.12%	4.89	OVER 4.5· 54%	med
Dylan Cease	AthleticsATH	26	19.35%	21.75%	4.82	OVER 4.5· 53%	med
Joey Cantillo	Baltimore OriolesBAL	29	21.96%	21.68%	4.67	UNDER 4.5· 50%	med
Grant Holmes	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	26	21.56%	21.75%	4.49	UNDER 4.5· 53%	med
Jake Irvin	San Diego PadresSD	18	21.58%	21.41%	4.33	UNDER 4.5· 56%	med
Eury Pérez	New York MetsNYM	25	20.46%	21.59%	4.3	UNDER 4.5· 57%	med
Nick Pivetta ⚠	Washington NationalsWSH	4	21.56%	21.67%	3.36	—	low
Jonah Tong ⚠	Miami MarlinsMIA	0	—%	—%	—	—	low
Derek Law ⚠	Kansas City RoyalsKC	0	—%	—%	—	—	low

OUT

Outs Recorded

How deep into the game we expect each starter to go, in outs (3 outs = 1 inning). Blank where his outings are too up-and-down to price.

PitcherSP	Opp	St	IP/St	Proj OutsOuts	Pick	Confidence
Jesús Luzardo	Atlanta BravesATL	28	6.06	18.4	OVER 18.5· 51%	high
Troy Melton	Minnesota TwinsMIN	17	6.02	17.4	OVER 17.5· 51%	high
Noah Cameron	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	26	5.67	17.2	UNDER 17.5· 51%	high
Dylan Cease	AthleticsATH	26	6.01	17.1	UNDER 17.5· 53%	high
Trevor Rogers	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	26	5.55	16.8	UNDER 17.5· 56%	high
Logan Webb	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	25	5.99	16.8	UNDER 17.5· 54%	high
Matthew Boyd	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	18	5.68	16.5	OVER 16.5· 52%	high
Eury Pérez	New York MetsNYM	25	5.41	16.0	UNDER 16.5· 54%	high
Jacob Lopez	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	20	4.81	16.0	UNDER 16.5· 54%	high
Michael McGreevy	San Francisco GiantsSF	27	5.46	15.9	UNDER 16.5· 56%	high
Chase Burns	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	26	5.59	15.1	UNDER 15.5· 55%	high
Grayson Rodriguez	Boston Red SoxBOS	16	4.86	15.0	UNDER 15.5· 54%	high
Robert Gasser	Chicago CubsCHC	16	5.08	14.8	OVER 14.5· 55%	high
Grant Holmes	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	26	4.91	14.7	OVER 14.5· 55%	high
Joey Cantillo	Baltimore OriolesBAL	29	4.89	14.3	OVER 14.5· 50%	high
Jake Irvin	San Diego PadresSD	18	4.76	14.0	UNDER 14.5· 55%	high
Nick Pivetta ⚠	Washington NationalsWSH	4	4.0	—	—	low
Jonah Tong ⚠	Miami MarlinsMIA	0	—	—	—	low
Derek Law ⚠	Kansas City RoyalsKC	0	—	—	—	low

Earned Runs

Runs we expect each starter to give up. Priced against a whole-run line (1.5 / 2.5 / 3.5). This is the noisiest of the three markets, so confidence never goes above med.

PitcherSP	Opp	St	Proj ERER	Pick	Confidence
Grayson Rodriguez	Boston Red SoxBOS	16	2.90	OVER 2.5· 50%	med
Noah Cameron	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	26	2.68	UNDER 2.5· 54%	med
Robert Gasser	Chicago CubsCHC	16	2.60	UNDER 2.5· 56%	med
Trevor Rogers	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	26	2.56	UNDER 2.5· 56%	med
Matthew Boyd	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	18	2.49	UNDER 2.5· 58%	med
Jake Irvin	San Diego PadresSD	18	2.47	UNDER 2.5· 58%	med
Jacob Lopez	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	20	2.47	UNDER 2.5· 58%	med
Logan Webb	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	25	2.41	UNDER 2.5· 59%	med
Michael McGreevy	San Francisco GiantsSF	27	2.28	UNDER 2.5· 62%	med
Jesús Luzardo	Atlanta BravesATL	28	2.24	UNDER 2.5· 63%	med
Joey Cantillo	Baltimore OriolesBAL	29	2.10	UNDER 2.5· 66%	med
Eury Pérez	New York MetsNYM	25	2.09	UNDER 2.5· 66%	med
Grant Holmes	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	26	2.02	UNDER 2.5· 68%	med
Chase Burns	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	26	2.00	OVER 1.5· 53%	med
Dylan Cease	AthleticsATH	26	1.88	OVER 1.5· 50%	med
Troy Melton	Minnesota TwinsMIN	17	1.85	UNDER 1.5· 51%	med
Nick Pivetta ⚠	Washington NationalsWSH	4	1.67	—	low
Jonah Tong ⚠	Miami MarlinsMIA	0	—	—	low
Derek Law ⚠	Kansas City RoyalsKC	0	—	—	low

BAT

Batter Props

18 batters across 2 posted lineups, best chances first. 1+ Hit and 1+ RBI are the odds he gets at least one tonight. The three marked PICK are our strongest 1+ Hit calls and are graded into the track record. Lineups post 3–4 hours before first pitch, so late games may still be missing.

Batter	Team	#	Opp SP	vs	Hit%	1+ HitHit	1+ RBIRBI
PICK Otto Lopez	Miami MarlinsMIA	4	Jonah Tong	RHP	24.6%	71%	30%
PICK Ketel Marte	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	2	Noah Cameron	LHP	23.4%	70%	41%
PICK Kyle Stowers	Miami MarlinsMIA	1	Jonah Tong	RHP	22.5%	70%	39%
Geraldo Perdomo	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	1	Noah Cameron	LHP	22.2%	68%	33%
Gabriel Moreno	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	3	Noah Cameron	LHP	22.8%	68%	42%
Griffin Conine	Miami MarlinsMIA	3	Jonah Tong	RHP	22.2%	67%	38%
Ildemaro Vargas	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	6	Noah Cameron	LHP	23.9%	67%	39%
Javier Sanoja	Miami MarlinsMIA	6	Jonah Tong	RHP	23.5%	67%	35%
Heriberto Hernández	Miami MarlinsMIA	2	Jonah Tong	RHP	21.4%	67%	37%
Nolan Arenado	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	4	Noah Cameron	LHP	22.1%	66%	33%
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	5	Noah Cameron	LHP	21.9%	64%	32%
Jordan Lawlar	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	8	Noah Cameron	LHP	22.8%	64%	34%
Jakob Marsee	Miami MarlinsMIA	5	Jonah Tong	RHP	20.9%	63%	25%
Ryan Waldschmidt	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	9	Noah Cameron	LHP	23.0%	63%	28%
Tim Tawa	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	7	Noah Cameron	LHP	21.9%	63%	29%
Joe Mack	Miami MarlinsMIA	9	Jonah Tong	RHP	22.4%	62%	34%
Owen Caissie	Miami MarlinsMIA	7	Jonah Tong	RHP	21.2%	62%	39%
Graham Pauley	Miami MarlinsMIA	8	Jonah Tong	RHP	21.4%	61%	33%

Extra Plays

The best outs and earned-run numbers on the board, same engine as the strikeout model. These sit outside the two-pick card above — they are newer markets for us, and we keep the opponent adjustment small on purpose, because this season's team splits are still mostly random.

Matthew Boyd OVER 15.5 outs

vs Milwaukee Brewers · 17.3 base × 0.987 matchup → 16.5

64%fair odds -180

Troy Melton OVER 16.5 outs

vs Minnesota Twins · 17.7 base × 1.002 matchup → 17.4

64%fair odds -174

Jesús Luzardo OVER 17.5 outs

vs Atlanta Braves · 18.7 base × 1.015 matchup → 18.4

63%fair odds -171

Grant Holmes UNDER 2.5 ER

vs Philadelphia Phillies · we project 2.02 earned runs

68%fair odds -210

Eury Pérez UNDER 2.5 ER

vs New York Mets · we project 2.09 earned runs

66%fair odds -196

Joey Cantillo UNDER 2.5 ER

vs Baltimore Orioles · we project 2.10 earned runs

66%fair odds -194

W-L

Track Record

Every pick we post gets graded the next day against the box score — wins, losses and all — see every one →

All picks 130-81 (62%) · parlay 3-13 · -9.07 units at $100 a card

9/17 8-69/16 7-89/15 9-59/14 11-39/13 9-59/12 8-59/11 11-39/10 8-5

Newest first. Past results do not predict future outcomes.

Every past card (16)

Our own projections · odds shown are fair value with no house cut — not sportsbook prices
Analysis only · not gambling advice · 21+
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