Today's Card

Sep 2 Prop Picks

Wed · Sep 2, 2026 15-game slate · 30 starters Strikeouts · outs · earned runs · batters

These are our numbers, not a sportsbook's. Every price on this page is a fair price — what the bet is worth with no house cut built in. A real book keeps a margin, so it will pay less than what you see here. Shop your own book's line before betting.

O+U

Tonight's Two

Our two biggest edges over the sportsbook's own price — one over, one under, from whichever market (strikeouts, outs, earned runs or hits) it shows up in. The line and the Mkt Edge are measured against a real book (book) wherever one has posted; where none has, we fall back to the nearest half-point line.

Tonight's Two fair odds -115 · 1.87×

Over
            Strikeouts
            David Peterson
            vs Milwaukee Brewers
Our Proj4.8 Ks
Line3.5 Ks
Edge+1.3
Win %70%
Fair Odds-232

Under
            Strikeouts
            Landen Roupp
            vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Our Proj5.1 Ks
Line6.5 Ks
Edge-1.4
Win %77%
Fair Odds-326

$100 bet · fair odds

$186.98

if both picks hit

+$86.98 profit

Fair-odds payout, not a sportsbook payout. Each pick is priced at the chance we give it (-232 Peterson × -326 Roupp → -115 together, decimal 1.87). A real book takes its cut and will pay less than this.

PROPS EDGE · 2026-09-02 · our projection

Strikeouts

All 30 probable starters, most projected strikeouts first. Proj K is how many we expect him to get tonight; the Pick column is the side we'd take against the nearest half-point line, with our win chance beside it.

How we get the number

K% is how often the pitcher strikes a batter out over his own starts. Opp K% is how often that lineup strikes out against this hand. Adj K% blends the two — a strikeout pitcher facing a contact lineup lands between them, not at either extreme. Multiply that by BF/St (batters he faces in a typical start) and you get Proj K. Win chance comes from how far past the line the projection sits, scored against 2,130 completed 2026 starts, so it reflects how often we've actually been right by that margin — not a textbook curve.

we like the OVERwe like the UNDERtoo close to callbright = strong pick, faded = slight edge+6% = our edge over the book's pricetap a row to star it

PitcherSP	Opp	St	K%	Opp K%	Adj K%	BF/St	Proj KK	Pick	Confidence
Dylan Cease	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	25	35.1%	21.2%	34.2%	24.0	8.2	UNDER 8.5· 59%	high
Jacob Misiorowski	Chicago CubsCHC	25	36.1%	21.5%	35.6%	22.8	8.1	UNDER 8.5· 59%	high
Cam Schlittler	Los Angeles AngelsLAA	28	30.6%	24.6%	34.0%	23.2	7.8	OVER 7.5· 50%	high
Reid Detmers	New York YankeesNYY	27	27.0%	24.2%	28.8%	23.2	6.6	UNDER 6.5· 53%	high
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	24	25.6%	21.6%	25.4%	25.3	6.4	UNDER 6.5· 55%	high
Patrick Sandoval	Seattle MarinersSEA	9	23.1%	24.1%	24.1%	23.0	5.6	UNDER 5.5· 52%	low
Eury Pérez	Kansas City RoyalsKC	24	26.7%	20.8%	25.6%	22.1	5.6	UNDER 5.5· 52%	high
Trevor Rogers	Colorado RockiesCOL	25	22.6%	24.5%	23.8%	23.2	5.5	UNDER 5.5· 54%	high
Jacob Lopez	Texas RangersTEX	19	24.0%	23.6%	25.1%	21.1	5.4	UNDER 5.5· 55%	high
Griffin Jax	New York MetsNYM	18	26.7%	22.3%	27.2%	18.6	5.4	UNDER 5.5· 55%	high
Landen Roupp	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	26	20.7%	23.3%	22.1%	22.9	5.1	UNDER 5.5· 60%	high
Noah Cameron	Miami MarlinsMIA	25	20.3%	23.1%	20.7%	24.0	5.1	UNDER 5.5· 59%	high
Dean Kremer	Detroit TigersDET	12	22.8%	22.4%	23.3%	21.7	5.0	UNDER 5.5· 61%	med
Hayden Wesneski ⚠	Chicago White SoxCWS	6	21.5%	23.2%	22.9%	22.2	5.0	—	low
Bryce Miller	Boston Red SoxBOS	16	22.9%	21.4%	22.0%	22.4	4.9	OVER 4.5· 51%	high
David Peterson	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	18	21.4%	21.4%	20.3%	23.2	4.8	OVER 4.5· 51%	high
Joey Cantillo	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	28	23.8%	21.1%	22.2%	21.0	4.6	UNDER 4.5· 52%	high
Casey Mize	Cincinnati RedsCIN	21	18.9%	24.8%	21.4%	21.2	4.5	UNDER 4.5· 54%	high
Bubba Chandler	San Francisco GiantsSF	25	20.8%	20.7%	19.7%	22.0	4.3	UNDER 4.5· 57%	high
Andrew Painter	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	18	20.6%	20.2%	19.0%	21.6	4.1	UNDER 4.5· 60%	high
Davis Martin	Houston AstrosHOU	24	19.8%	21.9%	19.8%	22.1	4.1	UNDER 4.5· 59%	high
Drew Anderson ⚠	Minnesota TwinsMIN	7	22.6%	20.8%	21.5%	17.6	3.8	—	low
Grant Holmes	Washington NationalsWSH	25	17.7%	20.8%	16.9%	21.6	3.7	UNDER 3.5· 50%	high
Brandon Williamson ⚠	San Diego PadresSD	6	16.7%	22.3%	16.3%	21.3	3.5	—	low
Cody Bradford ⚠	AthleticsATH	5	14.2%	24.2%	15.3%	22.8	3.5	—	low
Tomoyuki Sugano	Baltimore OriolesBAL	24	14.8%	23.3%	15.4%	22.5	3.5	UNDER 3.5· 54%	high
Brad Lord ⚠	Atlanta BravesATL	4	20.3%	22.1%	20.5%	9.8	2.0	—	low
Taylor Clarke ⚠	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	1	—%	—%	—%	—	—	—	low
Justin Hagenman ⚠	Tampa Bay RaysTB	1	—%	—%	—%	—	—	—	low
Brycen Mautz ⚠	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	1	—%	—%	—%	—	—	—	low

Hits Allowed

Hits we expect each starter to give up. Same idea as strikeouts, flipped — Proj H is the number, the Pick is the side against the nearest half-point line.

How we get the number

Hit% is how often a batter gets a hit off this pitcher over his own starts. Opp Hit% is how often that lineup gets a hit against this hand. Adj Hit% blends the two, then nudges for the ballpark — hit and run environments move together. Multiply by BF/St (batters faced in a typical start) and you get Proj H. Win chance is scored the same way as the other markets, against completed 2026 starts.

we like the OVERwe like the UNDERtoo close to callbright = strong pick, faded = slight edge+6% = our edge over the book's pricetap a row to star it

PitcherSP	Opp	St	Hit%	Opp Hit%	Adj Hit%	BF/St	Proj HH	Pick	Confidence
Dylan Cease	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	25	—%	—%	—%	24.0	—	—	low
Jacob Misiorowski	Chicago CubsCHC	25	—%	—%	—%	22.8	—	—	low
Cam Schlittler	Los Angeles AngelsLAA	28	—%	—%	—%	23.2	—	—	low
Reid Detmers	New York YankeesNYY	27	—%	—%	—%	23.2	—	—	low
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	24	—%	—%	—%	25.3	—	—	low
Patrick Sandoval	Seattle MarinersSEA	9	—%	—%	—%	23.0	—	—	low
Eury Pérez	Kansas City RoyalsKC	24	—%	—%	—%	22.1	—	—	low
Trevor Rogers	Colorado RockiesCOL	25	—%	—%	—%	23.2	—	—	low
Jacob Lopez	Texas RangersTEX	19	—%	—%	—%	21.1	—	—	low
Griffin Jax	New York MetsNYM	18	—%	—%	—%	18.6	—	—	low
Landen Roupp	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	26	—%	—%	—%	22.9	—	—	low
Noah Cameron	Miami MarlinsMIA	25	—%	—%	—%	24.0	—	—	low
Dean Kremer	Detroit TigersDET	12	—%	—%	—%	21.7	—	—	low
Hayden Wesneski ⚠	Chicago White SoxCWS	6	—%	—%	—%	22.2	—	—	low
Bryce Miller	Boston Red SoxBOS	16	—%	—%	—%	22.4	—	—	low
David Peterson	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	18	—%	—%	—%	23.2	—	—	low
Joey Cantillo	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	28	—%	—%	—%	21.0	—	—	low
Casey Mize	Cincinnati RedsCIN	21	—%	—%	—%	21.2	—	—	low
Bubba Chandler	San Francisco GiantsSF	25	—%	—%	—%	22.0	—	—	low
Andrew Painter	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	18	—%	—%	—%	21.6	—	—	low
Davis Martin	Houston AstrosHOU	24	—%	—%	—%	22.1	—	—	low
Drew Anderson ⚠	Minnesota TwinsMIN	7	—%	—%	—%	17.6	—	—	low
Grant Holmes	Washington NationalsWSH	25	—%	—%	—%	21.6	—	—	low
Brandon Williamson ⚠	San Diego PadresSD	6	—%	—%	—%	21.3	—	—	low
Cody Bradford ⚠	AthleticsATH	5	—%	—%	—%	22.8	—	—	low
Tomoyuki Sugano	Baltimore OriolesBAL	24	—%	—%	—%	22.5	—	—	low
Brad Lord ⚠	Atlanta BravesATL	4	—%	—%	—%	9.8	—	—	low
Taylor Clarke ⚠	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	1	—%	—%	—%	—	—	—	low
Justin Hagenman ⚠	Tampa Bay RaysTB	1	—%	—%	—%	—	—	—	low
Brycen Mautz ⚠	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	1	—%	—%	—%	—	—	—	low

OUT

Outs Recorded

How deep into the game we expect each starter to go, in outs (3 outs = 1 inning). Blank where his outings are too up-and-down to price.

How we get the number

IP/St is innings per start this year, and Base is that turned into outs with recent form weighted heavier. Matchup is the opponent nudge — how much traffic that lineup puts on and how many pitches it makes him throw. It is deliberately a small adjustment: team on-base splits this season are mostly random, so we lean on the pitcher's own workload rather than invent a matchup edge the data doesn't support.

we like the OVERwe like the UNDERtoo close to callbright = strong pick, faded = slight edge+6% = our edge over the book's pricetap a row to star it

PitcherSP	Opp	St	IP/St	Base	Matchup	Proj OutsOuts	Pick	Confidence
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	24	6.58	19.6	×1.008 -0.8	19.0	UNDER 19.5· 55%	high
Noah Cameron	Miami MarlinsMIA	25	5.69	18.0	×1.002 -0.2	17.8	OVER 17.5· 55%	high
Dylan Cease	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	25	6.01	18.2	×0.996 -0.5	17.6	OVER 17.5· 54%	high
Jacob Misiorowski	Chicago CubsCHC	25	6.04	18.3	×0.981 -0.7	17.2	UNDER 17.5· 52%	high
Reid Detmers	New York YankeesNYY	27	5.74	17.5	×0.998 -0.2	17.2	UNDER 17.5· 52%	high
Cam Schlittler	Los Angeles AngelsLAA	28	5.85	17.1	×1.002 -0.4	16.8	OVER 16.5· 55%	high
Trevor Rogers	Colorado RockiesCOL	25	5.51	16.6	×1.009 -0.1	16.6	OVER 16.5· 53%	high
Cody Bradford ⚠	AthleticsATH	5	5.26	15.8	×1.012 +0.5	16.5	—	low
Hayden Wesneski ⚠	Chicago White SoxCWS	6	5.45	16.3	×1.001 -0.1	16.3	—	low
Eury Pérez	Kansas City RoyalsKC	24	5.45	16.1	×1.008 -0.1	16.1	UNDER 16.5· 53%	high
Dean Kremer	Detroit TigersDET	12	5.23	15.8	×1.002 +0.1	15.9	OVER 15.5· 57%	med
David Peterson	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	18	5.07	15.6	×0.986 +0.6	15.9	OVER 15.5· 57%	high
Patrick Sandoval	Seattle MarinersSEA	9	5.0	15.2	×0.999 +0.7	15.8	OVER 15.5· 56%	low
Grant Holmes	Washington NationalsWSH	25	4.99	15.3	×1.007 +0.4	15.8	OVER 15.5· 56%	high
Andrew Painter	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	18	4.91	15.2	×1.006 +0.4	15.7	OVER 15.5· 54%	high
Jacob Lopez	Texas RangersTEX	19	4.75	15.2	×0.994 +0.3	15.5	OVER 15.5· 52%	high
Landen Roupp	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	26	5.37	16.0	×0.982 -0.2	15.5	OVER 15.5· 52%	high
Bryce Miller	Boston Red SoxBOS	16	5.56	16.2	×1.010 -0.9	15.5	OVER 15.5· 52%	high
Bubba Chandler	San Francisco GiantsSF	25	5.03	15.3	×1.008 -0.1	15.4	OVER 15.5· 51%	high
Casey Mize	Cincinnati RedsCIN	21	5.22	15.1	×1.009 +0.1	15.3	OVER 15.5· 50%	high
Tomoyuki Sugano	Baltimore OriolesBAL	24	5.24	15.1	×0.991 +0.2	15.2	UNDER 15.5· 53%	high
Joey Cantillo	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	28	4.87	14.3	×1.008 +0.1	14.5	OVER 14.5· 52%	high
Griffin Jax	New York MetsNYM	18	4.59	14.5	×1.005 -0.7	13.8	OVER 13.5· 55%	high
Davis Martin	Houston AstrosHOU	24	5.21	14.4	×1.002 -0.9	13.5	OVER 13.5· 52%	high
Brandon Williamson ⚠	San Diego PadresSD	6	4.67	14.0	×0.999 -0.6	13.4	—	low
Drew Anderson ⚠	Minnesota TwinsMIN	7	4.24	12.9	×1.002 +0.7	—	—	low
Brad Lord ⚠	Atlanta BravesATL	4	2.08	6.2	×0.994 +0.3	—	—	low
Taylor Clarke ⚠	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	1	—	—	—	—	—	low
Justin Hagenman ⚠	Tampa Bay RaysTB	1	—	—	—	—	—	low
Brycen Mautz ⚠	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	1	—	—	—	—	—	low

Earned Runs

Runs we expect each starter to give up. Priced against a whole-run line (1.5 / 2.5 / 3.5). This is the noisiest of the three markets, so confidence never goes above med.

How we get the number

ER Rate is earned runs per batter faced across his starts, pulled toward the league average when he hasn't thrown much — a small sample shouldn't get treated like a full season. Opp× scales it by how well that lineup scores against this hand, Park× by the ballpark. Multiply through by batters faced and you get Proj ER. We price it as a count that can blow up — one bad inning is most of a bad night — rather than assuming runs trickle in evenly.

we like the OVERwe like the UNDERtoo close to callbright = strong pick, faded = slight edge+6% = our edge over the book's pricetap a row to star it

PitcherSP	Opp	St	ER Rate	Opp×	Park×	Proj ERER	Pick	Confidence
Tomoyuki Sugano	Baltimore OriolesBAL	24	12.59%	×1.011	×1.12	3.20	UNDER 3.5· 62%	med
Trevor Rogers	Colorado RockiesCOL	25	11.19%	×1.010	×1.12	2.93	OVER 2.5· 51%	med
David Peterson	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	18	12.35%	×0.994	×1.01	2.93	OVER 2.5· 51%	med
Andrew Painter	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	18	13.45%	×0.979	×1.01	2.89	UNDER 2.5· 50%	med
Dean Kremer	Detroit TigersDET	12	12.87%	×0.983	×0.99	2.70	UNDER 2.5· 54%	med
Brandon Williamson ⚠	San Diego PadresSD	6	11.94%	×0.988	×1.04	2.61	—	low
Noah Cameron	Miami MarlinsMIA	25	10.75%	×0.984	×1.00	2.58	UNDER 2.5· 56%	med
Landen Roupp	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	26	10.83%	×1.031	×0.98	2.54	UNDER 2.5· 57%	med
Jacob Lopez	Texas RangersTEX	19	11.17%	×1.005	×1.01	2.46	UNDER 2.5· 59%	med
Bryce Miller	Boston Red SoxBOS	16	10.95%	×0.960	×1.04	2.45	UNDER 2.5· 59%	med
Patrick Sandoval	Seattle MarinersSEA	9	10.10%	×0.961	×1.04	2.36	UNDER 2.5· 61%	low
Reid Detmers	New York YankeesNYY	27	9.82%	×1.011	×1.01	2.31	UNDER 2.5· 62%	med
Hayden Wesneski ⚠	Chicago White SoxCWS	6	10.24%	×1.027	×1.00	2.31	—	low
Davis Martin	Houston AstrosHOU	24	10.98%	×1.002	×1.00	2.29	UNDER 2.5· 62%	med
Bubba Chandler	San Francisco GiantsSF	25	10.70%	×0.995	×0.98	2.27	UNDER 2.5· 63%	med
Grant Holmes	Washington NationalsWSH	25	9.89%	×1.043	×1.00	2.23	UNDER 2.5· 63%	med
Cody Bradford ⚠	AthleticsATH	5	9.58%	×0.998	×1.01	2.20	—	low
Eury Pérez	Kansas City RoyalsKC	24	9.60%	×0.980	×1.00	2.06	UNDER 2.5· 67%	med
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	24	8.06%	×1.003	×1.00	2.04	UNDER 2.5· 67%	med
Casey Mize	Cincinnati RedsCIN	21	9.61%	×0.963	×1.04	2.04	UNDER 2.5· 67%	med
Joey Cantillo	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	28	9.64%	×0.973	×0.98	1.89	UNDER 1.5· 50%	med
Griffin Jax	New York MetsNYM	18	9.17%	×0.965	×0.97	1.70	UNDER 1.5· 55%	med
Dylan Cease	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	25	7.36%	×0.949	×0.98	1.65	UNDER 1.5· 56%	med
Drew Anderson ⚠	Minnesota TwinsMIN	7	8.68%	×1.032	×0.99	1.59	—	low
Jacob Misiorowski	Chicago CubsCHC	25	6.35%	×1.040	×1.01	1.53	UNDER 1.5· 59%	med
Cam Schlittler	Los Angeles AngelsLAA	28	6.81%	×0.963	×1.01	1.53	UNDER 1.5· 59%	med
Brad Lord ⚠	Atlanta BravesATL	4	9.66%	×1.039	×1.00	0.98	—	low
Taylor Clarke ⚠	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	1	—	—	—	—	—	low
Justin Hagenman ⚠	Tampa Bay RaysTB	1	—	—	—	—	—	low
Brycen Mautz ⚠	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	1	—	—	—	—	—	low

Extra Plays

The best outs and earned-run numbers on the board, same engine as the strikeout model. These sit outside the two-pick card above — they are newer markets for us, and we keep the opponent adjustment small on purpose, because this season's team splits are still mostly random.

Bubba Chandler OVER 14.5 outs

vs San Francisco Giants · 15.3 base × 1.008 matchup → 15.4

64%fair odds -181

Joey Cantillo OVER 13.5 outs

vs Toronto Blue Jays · 14.3 base × 1.008 matchup → 14.5

62%fair odds -162

Tomoyuki Sugano OVER 14.5 outs

vs Baltimore Orioles · 15.1 base × 0.991 matchup → 15.2

62%fair odds -160

Yoshinobu Yamamoto UNDER 2.5 ER

vs St. Louis Cardinals · we project 2.04 earned runs

67%fair odds -207

Casey Mize UNDER 2.5 ER

vs Cincinnati Reds · we project 2.04 earned runs

67%fair odds -207

Eury Pérez UNDER 2.5 ER

vs Kansas City Royals · we project 2.06 earned runs

67%fair odds -203

W-L

Track Record

Every pick we post gets graded the next day against the box score — wins, losses and all — see every one →

All picks 45-39 (54%) · parlay 1-6 · -5.13 units at $100 a card

9/8 7-59/7 7-59/6 9-39/5 3-99/4 5-79/3 6-69/2 8-4

Newest first. Past results do not predict future outcomes.

Every past card (8)

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