Tonight's Card

Sep 19 Prop Picks

Sat · Sep 19, 2026 15-game slate · 30 starters Strikeouts · outs · earned runs · batters

Live record · since Sep 2 · 17 slates

139-86Picks graded

62%Hit rate

-7.7uUnits · $100/card

4-13Parlay record

Fair prices, not sportsbook prices. No house cut is built in, so your book will pay a little less — shop your own line before betting.

O+U

Tonight's Two

Our two biggest edges over the sportsbook's own price — one over, one under, from whichever market (strikeouts, outs, earned runs or hits) it shows up in. The line and the Mkt Edge are measured against a real book (pinnacle+bovada) wherever one has posted; where none has, we fall back to the nearest half-point line.

Tonight's Two fair odds +141 · 2.41×

Over Strikeouts Christian Scott vs Philadelphia Phillies

Our Proj5.7 Ks

PINNACLE4.5 Ks

Mkt Edge+7%

Win %66%

Fair Odds-191

Over Hits Freddy Peralta vs Boston Red Sox

Our Proj4.82 hits

PINNACLE3.5 hits

Mkt Edge+7%

Win %63%

Fair Odds-173

$100 bet · fair odds

$240.56

if both picks hit

+$140.56 profit

Fair-odds payout, not a sportsbook payout. Each pick is priced at the chance we give it (-191 Scott × -173 Peralta → +141 together, decimal 2.41). A real book takes its cut and will pay less than this.

PROPS EDGE · 2026-09-19 · our projection

On the Record

These 15 calls are the record. Everything else on this page is projection and context — useful for finding your own angle, but not scored. Tomorrow morning each row below is graded against the box score and the running track record moves by exactly these results, win or lose. Nothing is added afterwards and nothing quietly drops out.

Player	Source	Market	Pick	Line	Win %
Christian Scott	Tonight's Two	K	Over	4.5	66%
Freddy Peralta	Tonight's Two	HITS	Over	3.5	63%
Michael McGreevy	Extra play	OUTS	Under	17.5	60%
Tanner Bibee	Extra play	HITS	Under	5.5	62%
Noah Cameron	Extra play	OUTS	Over	15.5	60%
Grant Holmes	Extra play	ER	Under	2.5	65%
Freddy Peralta	Outs lean	OUTS	Over	15.5	65%
Eury Pérez	Outs lean	OUTS	Over	13.5	64%
Grant Holmes	Outs lean	OUTS	Over	13.5	64%
Tarik Skubal	ER lean	ER	Under	2.5	67%
Casey Mize	ER lean	ER	Under	2.5	67%
Eury Pérez	ER lean	ER	Under	2.5	63%
Jackson Chourio	Batter	HIT	1+ Hit		71%
Chandler Simpson	Batter	HIT	1+ Hit		71%
Jonathan Aranda	Batter	HIT	1+ Hit		71%

OVERUNDERtoo closehighest-confidence pick+6% edge over the booktap a row to star it

Strikeouts

All 30 probable starters, most projected strikeouts first — Proj K is tonight's number, Pick is the side against the nearest half-point line.

PitcherSP	Opp	St	K%	Opp K%	Proj KK	Pick	Confidence
Tarik Skubal	San Francisco GiantsSF	24	29.3%	23.3%	7.3	UNDER 7.5· 57% +4%	high
Cam Schlittler	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	31	30.8%	20.4%	6.8	OVER 6.5· 50% +6%	high
Reid Detmers	Minnesota TwinsMIN	30	27.6%	22.4%	6.4	UNDER 6.5· 55% +6%	high
Joe Ryan	Los Angeles AngelsLAA	25	23.3%	25.1%	6.0	UNDER 6.5· 60% +5%	high
Christian Scott	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	22	26.6%	21.8%	5.7	OVER 4.5· 66% +7%	high
Robert Gasser	Baltimore OriolesBAL	18	22.3%	25.8%	5.5	UNDER 5.5· 54% +5%	high
Noah Cameron	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	28	21.2%	24.9%	5.5	UNDER 5.5· 54% -1%	high
Eury Pérez	San Diego PadresSD	27	24.2%	21.5%	5.4	UNDER 5.5· 55% -0%	high
José Soriano	Texas RangersTEX	30	21.5%	22.3%	5.3	UNDER 5.5· 57%	high
Jackson Jobe ⚠	Chicago White SoxCWS	7	22.8%	23.6%	5.2	—	low
Sean Burke	Detroit TigersDET	25	23.5%	22.5%	5.2	UNDER 5.5· 58% +6%	high
Trevor Rogers	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	28	23.2%	21.3%	5.2	UNDER 5.5· 58% +6%	high
Matthew Boyd	Cincinnati RedsCIN	20	19.1%	24.3%	4.9	OVER 4.5· 53% +1%	high
Bryce Miller	Colorado RockiesCOL	19	23.2%	21.9%	4.9	OVER 4.5· 51% +6%	high
Freddy Peralta	Boston Red SoxBOS	30	21.2%	21.6%	4.8	OVER 4.5· 51% -7%	high
Andrew Painter	New York MetsNYM	21	20.6%	22.0%	4.8	OVER 4.5· 51% +2%	high
Brandon Pfaadt	New York YankeesNYY	17	16.8%	24.2%	4.7	UNDER 4.5· 51% -2%	high
Jacob Lopez	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	22	21.6%	21.9%	4.6	UNDER 4.5· 53% +0%	high
Tanner Bibee	AthleticsATH	31	19.6%	21.7%	4.5	UNDER 4.5· 54% +5%	high
Andrew Alvarez	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	15	23.5%	19.9%	4.4	UNDER 4.5· 56% -6%	high
Bubba Chandler	Kansas City RoyalsKC	28	20.9%	20.7%	4.3	UNDER 4.5· 57% -0%	high
Hayden Wesneski	Atlanta BravesATL	9	20.0%	21.7%	4.3	UNDER 4.5· 58% +3%	low
Nick Lodolo	Chicago CubsCHC	19	19.0%	21.4%	4.1	UNDER 4.5· 61% +6%	high
Cal Quantrill	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	14	21.4%	19.3%	4.1	OVER 3.5· 50% +7%	med
Casey Mize	Miami MarlinsMIA	24	19.3%	21.5%	4.1	UNDER 4.5· 59% +5%	high
Michael McGreevy	Washington NationalsWSH	29	17.7%	21.0%	3.9	OVER 3.5· 54% +1%	high
Grant Holmes	Houston AstrosHOU	28	17.7%	22.0%	3.6	UNDER 3.5· 48% +7%	high
Yunior Marte ⚠	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	1	21.1%	20.7%	3.6	—	low
Brayan Bello ⚠	Tampa Bay RaysTB	9	16.1%	19.3%	3.2	—	low
Jose Quintana	Seattle MarinersSEA	9	14.5%	23.6%	3.0	OVER 2.5· 56%	low

Hits Allowed

Hits we expect each starter to give up — Proj H is the number, the Pick is the side against the nearest half-point line.

PitcherSP	Opp	St	Hit%	Opp Hit%	Proj HH	Pick	Confidence
Matthew Boyd	Cincinnati RedsCIN	20	21.77%	21.6%	5.39	UNDER 5.5· 55%	med
Trevor Rogers	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	28	22.04%	21.6%	5.38	UNDER 5.5· 55% +2%	med
Brandon Pfaadt	New York YankeesNYY	17	21.82%	21.04%	5.37	UNDER 5.5· 55% +7%	med
Bryce Miller	Colorado RockiesCOL	19	21.48%	22.19%	5.36	UNDER 5.5· 55%	med
Nick Lodolo	Chicago CubsCHC	19	21.92%	21.78%	5.28	UNDER 5.5· 57%	med
Brayan Bello ⚠	Tampa Bay RaysTB	9	22.44%	22.52%	5.19	—	low
Tarik Skubal	San Francisco GiantsSF	24	21.28%	21.55%	5.15	OVER 4.5· 51% +7%	med
José Soriano	Texas RangersTEX	30	21.35%	21.31%	5.11	UNDER 5.5· 60%	med
Noah Cameron	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	28	21.58%	21.7%	4.98	UNDER 5.5· 62% +6%	med
Michael McGreevy	Washington NationalsWSH	29	22.11%	21.56%	4.97	UNDER 5.5· 59% +7%	med
Tanner Bibee	AthleticsATH	31	21.63%	21.61%	4.96	UNDER 5.5· 62% +4%	med
Reid Detmers	Minnesota TwinsMIN	30	21.08%	21.39%	4.92	OVER 4.5· 54% +7%	med
Cal Quantrill	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	14	21.53%	22.45%	4.9	UNDER 5.5· 58% +7%	med
Joe Ryan	Los Angeles AngelsLAA	25	21.84%	21.24%	4.88	OVER 4.5· 51% +7%	med
Andrew Painter	New York MetsNYM	21	22.22%	21.68%	4.88	OVER 4.5· 54% -1%	med
Freddy Peralta	Boston Red SoxBOS	30	21.86%	21.72%	4.82	OVER 3.5· 63% +7%	med
Jose Quintana	Seattle MarinersSEA	9	21.84%	21.15%	4.8	OVER 4.5· 52%	low
Cam Schlittler	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	31	20.54%	21.16%	4.75	OVER 4.5· 48% +7%	med
Robert Gasser	Baltimore OriolesBAL	18	21.59%	21.47%	4.75	OVER 4.5· 51% +7%	med
Hayden Wesneski	Atlanta BravesATL	9	21.54%	22.17%	4.75	OVER 4.5· 51% +2%	low
Sean Burke	Detroit TigersDET	25	21.53%	21.61%	4.66	UNDER 4.5· 50%	med
Bubba Chandler	Kansas City RoyalsKC	28	21.32%	21.79%	4.59	UNDER 4.5· 52% +1%	med
Jackson Jobe ⚠	Chicago White SoxCWS	7	21.66%	21.14%	4.55	—	low
Jacob Lopez	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	22	21.6%	21.22%	4.55	UNDER 4.5· 52%	med
Andrew Alvarez	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	15	21.17%	21.54%	4.42	UNDER 4.5· 53% +7%	med
Casey Mize	Miami MarlinsMIA	24	21.72%	22.12%	4.41	UNDER 4.5· 55% +1%	med
Eury Pérez	San Diego PadresSD	27	21.14%	21.47%	4.39	UNDER 4.5· 55% -4%	med
Grant Holmes	Houston AstrosHOU	28	21.58%	21.57%	4.36	UNDER 4.5· 56% +4%	med
Christian Scott	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	22	21.28%	21.64%	4.31	UNDER 4.5· 57% +3%	med
Yunior Marte ⚠	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	1	21.67%	22.15%	3.98	—	low

OUT

Outs Recorded

How deep into the game we expect each starter to go, in outs (3 outs = 1 inning). Blank where his outings are too up-and-down to price.

PitcherSP	Opp	St	IP/St	Proj OutsOuts	Pick	Confidence
Tarik Skubal	San Francisco GiantsSF	24	6.11	18.6	OVER 18.5· 51% +7%	high
Brandon Pfaadt	New York YankeesNYY	17	6.04	17.8	OVER 17.5· 56% +6%	high
Reid Detmers	Minnesota TwinsMIN	30	5.8	17.5	OVER 17.5· 52% -7%	high
Cam Schlittler	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	31	5.96	17.4	OVER 17.5· 51% -1%	high
Trevor Rogers	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	28	5.63	17.2	UNDER 17.5· 51% +4%	high
José Soriano	Texas RangersTEX	30	5.64	17.0	UNDER 17.5· 54%	high
Cal Quantrill	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	14	5.38	16.9	UNDER 17.5· 54% -1%	med
Tanner Bibee	AthleticsATH	31	5.72	16.8	UNDER 17.5· 52% +7%	high
Matthew Boyd	Cincinnati RedsCIN	20	5.74	16.6	OVER 16.5· 54% +6%	high
Michael McGreevy	Washington NationalsWSH	29	5.52	16.6	UNDER 17.5· 60% +7%	high
Freddy Peralta	Boston Red SoxBOS	30	5.27	16.5	OVER 15.5· 49% +7%	high
Noah Cameron	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	28	5.69	16.3	OVER 15.5· 60% +3%	high
Hayden Wesneski	Atlanta BravesATL	9	5.41	15.9	OVER 15.5· 44% +7%	low
Andrew Painter	New York MetsNYM	21	5.01	15.8	OVER 15.5· 53% +7%	high
Bubba Chandler	Kansas City RoyalsKC	28	5.07	15.6	OVER 15.5· 54% +4%	high
Nick Lodolo	Chicago CubsCHC	19	5.09	15.3	UNDER 15.5· 50% -5%	high
Christian Scott	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	22	4.79	15.0	UNDER 15.5· 54% -4%	high
Bryce Miller	Colorado RockiesCOL	19	5.38	15.0	UNDER 15.5· 55% +3%	high
Casey Mize	Miami MarlinsMIA	24	5.18	15.0	UNDER 15.5· 53% -9%	high
Andrew Alvarez	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	15	5.02	14.9	UNDER 15.5· 56%	high
Joe Ryan	Los Angeles AngelsLAA	25	5.35	14.8	UNDER 15.5· 55%	high
Jackson Jobe ⚠	Chicago White SoxCWS	7	4.96	14.7	—	low
Jacob Lopez	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	22	4.82	14.7	UNDER 15.5· 56% +6%	high
Eury Pérez	San Diego PadresSD	27	5.34	14.5	UNDER 15.5· 61% -3%	high
Grant Holmes	Houston AstrosHOU	28	4.92	14.5	OVER 14.5· 52%	high
Robert Gasser	Baltimore OriolesBAL	18	5.06	14.4	OVER 14.5· 51%	high
Sean Burke	Detroit TigersDET	25	5.24	13.7	OVER 13.5· 54%	high
Jose Quintana	Seattle MarinersSEA	9	4.56	13.2	UNDER 13.5· 51%	low
Yunior Marte ⚠	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	1	4.7	12.3	—	low
Brayan Bello ⚠	Tampa Bay RaysTB	9	4.52	—	—	low

Earned Runs

Runs we expect each starter to give up. Priced against a whole-run line (1.5 / 2.5 / 3.5). This is the noisiest of the three markets, so confidence never goes above med.

PitcherSP	Opp	St	Proj ERER	Pick	Confidence
Brayan Bello ⚠	Tampa Bay RaysTB	9	3.15	—	low
Nick Lodolo	Chicago CubsCHC	19	2.90	OVER 2.5· 51%	med
Bryce Miller	Colorado RockiesCOL	19	2.76	UNDER 2.5· 52%	med
Matthew Boyd	Cincinnati RedsCIN	20	2.72	UNDER 2.5· 53%	med
Trevor Rogers	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	28	2.68	UNDER 2.5· 53% -2%	med
Andrew Painter	New York MetsNYM	21	2.68	UNDER 2.5· 53% -1%	med
Tanner Bibee	AthleticsATH	31	2.51	UNDER 2.5· 57% -0%	med
Freddy Peralta	Boston Red SoxBOS	30	2.49	OVER 1.5· 61% +7%	med
Brandon Pfaadt	New York YankeesNYY	17	2.45	UNDER 2.5· 58% +7%	med
Jose Quintana	Seattle MarinersSEA	9	2.45	UNDER 2.5· 58%	low
Robert Gasser	Baltimore OriolesBAL	18	2.41	OVER 1.5· 61% +7%	med
Noah Cameron	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	28	2.40	UNDER 2.5· 59% +3%	med
Jacob Lopez	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	22	2.40	UNDER 2.5· 59%	med
Michael McGreevy	Washington NationalsWSH	29	2.37	UNDER 2.5· 60% +7%	med
José Soriano	Texas RangersTEX	30	2.33	UNDER 2.5· 61%	med
Bubba Chandler	Kansas City RoyalsKC	28	2.31	UNDER 2.5· 61% +3%	med
Reid Detmers	Minnesota TwinsMIN	30	2.25	OVER 1.5· 60% +4%	med
Sean Burke	Detroit TigersDET	25	2.25	UNDER 2.5· 63%	med
Hayden Wesneski	Atlanta BravesATL	9	2.24	UNDER 2.5· 63% +6%	low
Joe Ryan	Los Angeles AngelsLAA	25	2.23	OVER 1.5· 59% +3%	med
Eury Pérez	San Diego PadresSD	27	2.21	UNDER 2.5· 63% +5%	med
Jackson Jobe ⚠	Chicago White SoxCWS	7	2.21	—	low
Tarik Skubal	San Francisco GiantsSF	24	2.07	OVER 1.5· 51% +7%	med
Casey Mize	Miami MarlinsMIA	24	2.07	OVER 1.5· 55% -4%	med
Christian Scott	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	22	2.00	OVER 1.5· 54% -3%	med
Andrew Alvarez	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	15	2.00	UNDER 2.5· 64% +7%	med
Grant Holmes	Houston AstrosHOU	28	1.99	UNDER 2.5· 65% +7%	med
Cal Quantrill	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	14	1.94	UNDER 2.5· 64% +7%	med
Yunior Marte ⚠	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	1	1.91	—	low
Cam Schlittler	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	31	1.65	UNDER 1.5· 55% +5%	med

BAT

Batter Props

63 batters across 4 posted lineups, best chances first. 1+ Hit and 1+ RBI are the odds he gets at least one tonight. The three marked PICK are our strongest 1+ Hit calls and are graded into the track record. Lineups post 3–4 hours before first pitch, so late games may still be missing.

Batter	Team	#	Opp SP	vs	Hit%	1+ HitHit	1+ RBIRBI
PICK Jackson Chourio	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	1	Trevor Rogers	LHP	23.7%	71%	35%
PICK Chandler Simpson	Tampa Bay RaysTB	5	Brayan Bello	RHP	25.1%	71%	27%
PICK Jonathan Aranda	Tampa Bay RaysTB	2	Brayan Bello	RHP	23.5%	71%	39%
Kevin McGonigle	Detroit TigersDET	1	Sean Burke	RHP	23.4%	70%	34%
Luis Arraez	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	4	Christian Scott	RHP	24.8%	70%	31%
Liam Hicks	Tampa Bay RaysTB	4	Brayan Bello	RHP	24.0%	70%	38%
Sam Antonacci	Chicago White SoxCWS	1	Jackson Jobe	RHP	23.0%	70%	32%
Junior Caminero	Tampa Bay RaysTB	3	Brayan Bello	RHP	23.3%	69%	39%
Bo Bichette	New York MetsNYM	3	Andrew Painter	RHP	23.2%	69%	33%
Andrew Vaughn	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	4	Trevor Rogers	LHP	23.6%	69%	34%
Mickey Gasper	Boston Red SoxBOS	2	Freddy Peralta	RHP	22.8%	69%	35%
Carson Benge	New York MetsNYM	4	Andrew Painter	RHP	23.5%	69%	31%
Jake Fraley	Tampa Bay RaysTB	1	Brayan Bello	RHP	22.0%	69%	33%
Francisco Lindor	New York MetsNYM	1	Andrew Painter	RHP	22.1%	69%	35%
Juan Soto	New York MetsNYM	2	Andrew Painter	RHP	22.5%	68%	38%
Hao-Yu Lee	Detroit TigersDET	2	Sean Burke	RHP	22.7%	68%	36%
Bryce Harper	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	3	Christian Scott	RHP	23.4%	68%	37%
Colt Keith	Detroit TigersDET	3	Sean Burke	RHP	23.1%	68%	31%
Riley Greene	Detroit TigersDET	4	Sean Burke	RHP	23.5%	68%	35%
Trea Turner	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	2	Christian Scott	RHP	22.8%	68%	33%
William Contreras	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	3	Trevor Rogers	LHP	22.7%	68%	34%
Roman Anthony	Boston Red SoxBOS	1	Freddy Peralta	RHP	21.8%	68%	32%
Garrett Mitchell	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	2	Trevor Rogers	LHP	22.1%	67%	33%
Adley Rutschman	Boston Red SoxBOS	3	Freddy Peralta	RHP	22.2%	67%	38%

★

Milestone Watch

Players closing in on a season or career mark. Anyone playing tonight is flagged first; lineups post a few hours before first pitch.

Reached since the last card: Bryan Reynolds 150 hits · José Ramírez 1,000th career RBI · Matt Olson 150 hits · Brayan Rocchio 20 SB · Matt Olson 40 HR · Cade Cavalli 200 K · Jackson Merrill 150 hits · CJ Abrams 30 SB · Ben Rice 100 runs

Player	Team	Milestone	Has	NeedsNeed
TONIGHT Reid Detmers	LAALAA	200 K	199	1 proj 6.4 K
TONIGHT Francisco Lindor	NYMNYM	300th career home run	299	1
TONIGHT Miguel Vargas	CWSCWS	100 runs	99	1
TONIGHT Bryce Harper	PHIPHI	150 hits	148	2
TONIGHT Caleb Durbin	BOSBOS	20 SB	19	1
TONIGHT Jackson Chourio	MILMIL	20 SB	19	1
TONIGHT Jarren Duran	BOSBOS	20 SB	19	1
TONIGHT Jorge Mateo	ATLATL	20 SB	19	1
TONIGHT Miguel Vargas	CWSCWS	20 SB	19	1
TONIGHT Trea Turner	PHIPHI	20 HR	19	1
TONIGHT Chase Meidroth	CWSCWS	150 hits	147	3
TONIGHT William Contreras	MILMIL	150 hits	147	3
TONIGHT Trea Turner	PHIPHI	150 hits	146	4
TONIGHT Riley Greene	DETDET	100th career home run	97	3
TONIGHT Junior Caminero	TBTB	100 RBI	97	3
TONIGHT Trea Turner	PHIPHI	100 runs	97	3
TONIGHT Bryce Harper	PHIPHI	30 HR	28	2
TONIGHT Carson Benge	NYMNYM	20 HR	18	2
TONIGHT David Hamilton	MILMIL	30 SB	28	2
TONIGHT Liam Hicks	TBTB	20 HR	18	2
TONIGHT Sam Antonacci	CWSCWS	20 SB	18	2
TONIGHT Chandler Simpson	TBTB	175 hits	169	6
TONIGHT Wilyer Abreu	BOSBOS	150 hits	144	6
TONIGHT Jackson Chourio	MILMIL	150 hits	143	7
TONIGHT Jackson Jobe	DETDET	100th career strikeout	75	25 proj 5.2 K
TONIGHT Brandon Marsh	PHIPHI	20 HR	17	3
TONIGHT Cam Schlittler	NYYNYY	15 wins	14	1
TONIGHT Dillon Dingler	DETDET	30 HR	27	3
TONIGHT Kevin McGonigle	DETDET	20 HR	17	3
TONIGHT Kevin McGonigle	DETDET	100 runs	95	5
TONIGHT Kyle Schwarber	PHIPHI	100 RBI	95	5
TONIGHT William Contreras	MILMIL	20 HR	17	3
Manny Machado	SDSD	400th career home run	397	3
Zack Wheeler	PHIPHI	2,000th career strikeout	1,997	3
Eugenio Suárez	CINCIN	350th career home run	349	1
Kenley Jansen	DETDET	500th career save	497	3
Blake Snell	LADLAD	1,500th career strikeout	1,492	8
Carlos Rodón	NYYNYY	1,500th career strikeout	1,492	8
José Ramírez	CLECLE	300th career home run	297	3
Jesús Luzardo	PHIPHI	1,000th career strikeout	996	4
Steven Matz	TBTB	1,000th career strikeout	996	4
Pete Crow-Armstrong	CHCCHC	40-40 season	44 HR / 37 SB	3 SB
Kris Bubic	LADLAD	500th career strikeout	498	2
Christian Walker	HOUHOU	200th career home run	199	1
Rhys Hoskins	CLECLE	200th career home run	199	1
Willson Contreras	BOSBOS	200th career home run	199	1
Carlos Estévez	KCKC	500th career strikeout	494	6
Carlos Rodón	NYYNYY	100th career win	99	1
JP Sears	SDSD	500th career strikeout	491	9
Mookie Betts	LADLAD	200th career stolen base	198	2
Gregory Soto	PITPIT	500th career strikeout	486	14
Ian Happ	CHCCHC	200th career home run	197	3

Extra Plays

The best outs and earned-run numbers on the board, same engine as the strikeout model. These sit outside the two-pick card above — they are newer markets for us, and we keep the opponent adjustment small on purpose, because this season's team splits are still mostly random.

Freddy Peralta OVER 15.5 outs

vs Boston Red Sox · 16.5 base × 1.011 matchup → 16.5

65%fair odds -183

Eury Pérez OVER 13.5 outs

vs San Diego Padres · 15.1 base × 0.998 matchup → 14.5

64%fair odds -177

Grant Holmes OVER 13.5 outs

vs Houston Astros · 14.6 base × 1.003 matchup → 14.5

64%fair odds -177

Tarik Skubal UNDER 2.5 ER

vs San Francisco Giants · we project 2.07 earned runs

67%fair odds -199

Casey Mize UNDER 2.5 ER

vs Miami Marlins · we project 2.07 earned runs

67%fair odds -199

Eury Pérez UNDER 2.5 ER

vs San Diego Padres · we project 2.21 earned runs

63%fair odds -173

W-L

Track Record

Every pick we post gets graded the next day against the box score — wins, losses and all — see every one →

All picks 139-86 (62%) · parlay 4-13 · -7.69 units at $100 a card

9/18 9-59/17 8-69/16 7-89/15 9-59/14 11-39/13 9-59/12 8-59/11 11-3

Newest first. Past results do not predict future outcomes.

Every past card (18)

Our own projections · odds shown are fair value with no house cut — not sportsbook prices
Analysis only · not gambling advice · 21+
@PropsEdgeBTN · Track record · Calculators · NFL · Blog · Learn · How it works · Archive · Privacy Policy · Terms of Service · If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER