Tonight's Card

Sep 18 Prop Picks

Fri · Sep 18, 2026 15-game slate · 28 starters Strikeouts · outs · earned runs · batters

Live record · since Sep 2 · 16 slates

130-81Picks graded

62%Hit rate

-9.1uUnits · $100/card

3-13Parlay record

Fair prices, not sportsbook prices. No house cut is built in, so your book will pay a little less — shop your own line before betting.

O+U

Tonight's Two

Our two biggest edges over the sportsbook's own price — one over, one under, from whichever market (strikeouts, outs, earned runs or hits) it shows up in. The line and the Mkt Edge are measured against a real book (pinnacle+bovada) wherever one has posted; where none has, we fall back to the nearest half-point line.

Tonight's Two fair odds +138 · 2.38×

Over Hits Ian Seymour vs Boston Red Sox

Our Proj4.42 hits

PINNACLE3.5 hits

Mkt Edge+6%

Win %64%

Fair Odds-181

Over Strikeouts Zac Thornton vs Philadelphia Phillies

Our Proj4.6 Ks

PINNACLE3.5 Ks

Mkt Edge+7%

Win %65%

Fair Odds-188

$100 bet · fair odds

$238.05

if both picks hit

+$138.05 profit

Fair-odds payout, not a sportsbook payout. Each pick is priced at the chance we give it (-181 Seymour × -188 Thornton → +138 together, decimal 2.38). A real book takes its cut and will pay less than this.

PROPS EDGE · 2026-09-18 · our projection

On the Record

These 14 calls are the record. Everything else on this page is projection and context — useful for finding your own angle, but not scored. Tomorrow morning each row below is graded against the box score and the running track record moves by exactly these results, win or lose. Nothing is added afterwards and nothing quietly drops out.

Player	Source	Market	Pick	Line	Win %
Ian Seymour	Tonight's Two	HITS	Over	3.5	64%
Zac Thornton	Tonight's Two	K	Over	3.5	65%
Peter Lambert	Extra play	OUTS	Under	17.5	61%
Gerrit Cole	Extra play	OUTS	Over	15.5	61%
Ranger Suarez	Extra play	ER	Under	2.5	67%
Bryan Woo	Extra play	K	Over	4.5	62%
Connor Prielipp	Outs lean	OUTS	Over	14.5	65%
Peter Lambert	Outs lean	OUTS	Over	15.5	63%
Ranger Suarez	Outs lean	OUTS	Over	15.5	59%
Randy Dobnak	ER lean	ER	Under	2.5	68%
Clay Holmes	ER lean	ER	Under	2.5	67%
Jackson Chourio	Batter	HIT	1+ Hit		72%
Steven Kwan	Batter	HIT	1+ Hit		72%
Alec Burleson	Batter	HIT	1+ Hit		71%

OVERUNDERtoo closehighest-confidence pick+6% edge over the booktap a row to star it

Strikeouts

All 28 probable starters, most projected strikeouts first — Proj K is tonight's number, Pick is the side against the nearest half-point line.

PitcherSP	Opp	St	K%	Opp K%	Proj KK	Pick	Confidence
Dylan Cease	Texas RangersTEX	28	33.0%	22.4%	7.9	OVER 7.5· 50% +7%	high
Cade Cavalli	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	31	29.9%	21.4%	6.5	UNDER 6.5· 54% -7%	high
Ian Seymour	Boston Red SoxBOS	14	31.4%	21.5%	6.2	OVER 5.5· 55% +1%	med
Chase Burns	Chicago CubsCHC	28	29.4%	21.2%	5.9	OVER 4.5· 43% +7%	high
Tyler Glasnow	San Francisco GiantsSF	11	29.4%	20.8%	5.9	UNDER 6.5· 48% +7%	med
Bryan Woo	Colorado RockiesCOL	28	24.9%	21.9%	5.7	OVER 4.5· 62% +7%	high
Connor Prielipp	Los Angeles AngelsLAA	20	23.3%	24.4%	5.7	UNDER 5.5· 51% +5%	high
Clay Holmes	Cincinnati RedsCIN	16	19.2%	25.1%	5.2	OVER 4.5· 54% +7%	high
Paul Skenes	Kansas City RoyalsKC	30	24.9%	20.6%	5.2	UNDER 5.5· 57% +7%	high
Andrew Sears ⚠	Chicago White SoxCWS	2	21.5%	24.4%	5.2	—	low
Peter Lambert	Atlanta BravesATL	26	22.0%	21.7%	5.2	OVER 4.5· 60% +7%	high
Gerrit Cole	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	20	23.4%	20.3%	5.2	OVER 4.5· 57% +3%	high
Eduardo Rodriguez	New York YankeesNYY	30	19.8%	24.0%	5.2	OVER 4.5· 60% +4%	high
Tyler Mahle	Houston AstrosHOU	25	21.3%	22.0%	5.0	OVER 4.5· 53% +7%	high
Andrew Painter	New York MetsNYM	21	20.6%	22.0%	4.8	OVER 4.5· 51%	high
David Sandlin ⚠	Detroit TigersDET	4	22.3%	22.5%	4.8	—	low
Dustin May ⚠	Baltimore OriolesBAL	28	22.3%	23.7%	4.6	—	low
Zac Thornton	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	13	20.3%	22.1%	4.6	OVER 3.5· 65% +7%	med
Nick Pivetta ⚠	Miami MarlinsMIA	6	27.8%	21.5%	4.6	—	low
Randy Dobnak	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	11	18.8%	23.3%	4.5	OVER 3.5· 51% +7%	med
Grayson Rodriguez	Minnesota TwinsMIN	18	20.3%	20.8%	4.4	UNDER 4.5· 55% +7%	high
Kyle Leahy ⚠	Washington NationalsWSH	28	24.1%	21.1%	4.3	—	low
Kumar Rocker	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	25	21.9%	19.3%	4.1	OVER 3.5· 59% -1%	high
Cesar Perdomo ⚠	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	2	19.4%	20.7%	4.1	—	low
Ranger Suarez	Tampa Bay RaysTB	26	21.4%	18.7%	4.0	UNDER 4.5· 60% +7%	high
Mason Barnett ⚠	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	4	20.1%	20.9%	3.8	—	low
Tyler Phillips	San Diego PadresSD	18	20.0%	21.5%	3.8	OVER 3.5· 52% +5%	high
Daniel Espino ⚠	AthleticsATH	1	22.3%	21.7%	1.5	—	low

Hits Allowed

Hits we expect each starter to give up — Proj H is the number, the Pick is the side against the nearest half-point line.

PitcherSP	Opp	St	Hit%	Opp Hit%	Proj HH	Pick	Confidence
Bryan Woo	Colorado RockiesCOL	28	21.26%	22.14%	5.68	OVER 5.5· 50%	med
Eduardo Rodriguez	New York YankeesNYY	30	21.64%	21.76%	5.39	UNDER 5.5· 55% +1%	med
Grayson Rodriguez	Minnesota TwinsMIN	18	22.57%	21.96%	5.21	OVER 4.5· 60% +3%	med
Gerrit Cole	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	20	22.02%	21.17%	5.19	OVER 4.5· 58% +7%	med
Peter Lambert	Atlanta BravesATL	26	21.0%	22.16%	5.14	OVER 4.5· 58% +2%	med
Tyler Mahle	Houston AstrosHOU	25	22.03%	21.59%	5.1	OVER 4.5· 58% +2%	med
Cesar Perdomo ⚠	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	2	21.94%	21.68%	5.05	—	low
Connor Prielipp	Los Angeles AngelsLAA	20	22.08%	21.57%	5.04	OVER 4.5· 55% +7%	med
Clay Holmes	Cincinnati RedsCIN	16	20.97%	20.84%	4.96	OVER 4.5· 55% +3%	med
Andrew Painter	New York MetsNYM	21	22.57%	21.64%	4.95	OVER 4.5· 55%	med
Kumar Rocker	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	25	22.14%	22.48%	4.95	OVER 4.5· 55% -0%	med
Randy Dobnak	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	11	21.87%	22.15%	4.94	UNDER 5.5· 57% +7%	med
Andrew Sears ⚠	Chicago White SoxCWS	2	21.78%	21.51%	4.91	—	low
Ranger Suarez	Tampa Bay RaysTB	26	21.71%	21.83%	4.83	UNDER 5.5· 57% +7%	med
Zac Thornton	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	13	22.08%	21.64%	4.81	UNDER 5.5· 61% +7%	med
Paul Skenes	Kansas City RoyalsKC	30	21.28%	21.78%	4.65	UNDER 4.5· 50% +3%	med
Cade Cavalli	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	31	21.41%	21.63%	4.61	UNDER 4.5· 51% +4%	med
Dylan Cease	Texas RangersTEX	28	19.4%	21.32%	4.54	OVER 3.5· 61% +7%	med
David Sandlin ⚠	Detroit TigersDET	4	21.34%	21.59%	4.5	—	low
Chase Burns	Chicago CubsCHC	28	20.9%	21.65%	4.49	OVER 2.5· 52% +7%	med
Tyler Glasnow	San Francisco GiantsSF	11	20.69%	22.26%	4.49	UNDER 4.5· 53%	med
Ian Seymour	Boston Red SoxBOS	14	21.98%	21.72%	4.42	OVER 3.5· 64% +6%	med
Mason Barnett ⚠	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	4	22.02%	21.61%	4.3	—	low
Dustin May ⚠	Baltimore OriolesBAL	28	22.02%	21.15%	4.21	—	low
Kyle Leahy ⚠	Washington NationalsWSH	28	22.64%	21.56%	4.09	—	low
Tyler Phillips	San Diego PadresSD	18	21.78%	21.46%	3.92	UNDER 4.5· 53% +7%	med
Nick Pivetta ⚠	Miami MarlinsMIA	6	21.47%	22.11%	3.43	—	low
Daniel Espino ⚠	AthleticsATH	1	21.66%	21.62%	1.48	—	low

OUT

Outs Recorded

How deep into the game we expect each starter to go, in outs (3 outs = 1 inning). Blank where his outings are too up-and-down to price.

PitcherSP	Opp	St	IP/St	Proj OutsOuts	Pick	Confidence
Eduardo Rodriguez	New York YankeesNYY	30	5.94	17.5	OVER 17.5· 52% +4%	high
Bryan Woo	Colorado RockiesCOL	28	5.8	17.0	UNDER 17.5· 49% +7%	high
Dylan Cease	Texas RangersTEX	28	5.94	16.9	UNDER 17.5· 48% +7%	high
Tyler Mahle	Houston AstrosHOU	25	5.52	16.8	UNDER 17.5· 57% +7%	high
Clay Holmes	Cincinnati RedsCIN	16	5.73	16.7	OVER 15.5· 57% +7%	high
Gerrit Cole	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	20	5.76	16.7	OVER 15.5· 61% +7%	high
Zac Thornton	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	13	5.64	16.7	OVER 16.5· 55% +5%	med
Peter Lambert	Atlanta BravesATL	26	5.6	16.3	UNDER 17.5· 61% +7%	high
David Sandlin ⚠	Detroit TigersDET	4	5.42	16.3	—	low
Ranger Suarez	Tampa Bay RaysTB	26	5.3	16.3	UNDER 17.5· 56% +7%	high
Paul Skenes	Kansas City RoyalsKC	30	5.4	16.1	UNDER 17.5· 59% +7%	high
Cesar Perdomo ⚠	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	2	5.35	16.1	—	low
Andrew Painter	New York MetsNYM	21	5.01	15.9	UNDER 16.5· 55%	high
Grayson Rodriguez	Minnesota TwinsMIN	18	4.83	15.7	UNDER 16.5· 56% +7%	high
Cade Cavalli	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	31	5.31	15.6	UNDER 17.5· 54% +7%	high
Tyler Glasnow	San Francisco GiantsSF	11	5.61	15.6	OVER 15.5· 53%	med
Randy Dobnak	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	11	5.43	15.6	OVER 15.5· 51% +7%	med
Connor Prielipp	Los Angeles AngelsLAA	20	5.21	15.4	OVER 15.5· 51%	high
Ian Seymour	Boston Red SoxBOS	14	4.79	14.7	UNDER 15.5· 56% -0%	med
Andrew Sears ⚠	Chicago White SoxCWS	2	5.0	14.7	—	low
Kumar Rocker	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	25	4.84	14.7	OVER 14.5· 54% -7%	high
Chase Burns	Chicago CubsCHC	28	5.4	14.6	OVER 14.5· 54%	high
Tyler Phillips	San Diego PadresSD	18	4.57	13.8	UNDER 14.5· 55%	high
Dustin May ⚠	Baltimore OriolesBAL	28	4.94	—	—	low
Nick Pivetta ⚠	Miami MarlinsMIA	6	4.17	—	—	low
Kyle Leahy ⚠	Washington NationalsWSH	28	4.82	—	—	low
Mason Barnett ⚠	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	4	4.0	—	—	low
Daniel Espino ⚠	AthleticsATH	1	2.0	—	—	low

Earned Runs

Runs we expect each starter to give up. Priced against a whole-run line (1.5 / 2.5 / 3.5). This is the noisiest of the three markets, so confidence never goes above med.

PitcherSP	Opp	St	Proj ERER	Pick	Confidence
Grayson Rodriguez	Minnesota TwinsMIN	18	3.06	OVER 2.5· 52% +7%	med
Connor Prielipp	Los Angeles AngelsLAA	20	2.90	OVER 2.5· 49% +7%	med
Bryan Woo	Colorado RockiesCOL	28	2.83	UNDER 2.5· 51%	med
Andrew Painter	New York MetsNYM	21	2.76	UNDER 2.5· 52%	med
Mason Barnett ⚠	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	4	2.63	—	low
Tyler Mahle	Houston AstrosHOU	25	2.43	UNDER 2.5· 59% +4%	med
Kumar Rocker	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	25	2.40	UNDER 2.5· 60% +3%	med
Cesar Perdomo ⚠	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	2	2.39	—	low
Peter Lambert	Atlanta BravesATL	26	2.37	UNDER 2.5· 60% +7%	med
Andrew Sears ⚠	Chicago White SoxCWS	2	2.36	—	low
Gerrit Cole	Arizona DiamondbacksARI	20	2.32	OVER 1.5· 60% +1%	med
Ian Seymour	Boston Red SoxBOS	14	2.28	OVER 1.5· 58% +7%	med
David Sandlin ⚠	Detroit TigersDET	4	2.24	—	low
Paul Skenes	Kansas City RoyalsKC	30	2.21	OVER 1.5· 58% -1%	med
Dustin May ⚠	Baltimore OriolesBAL	28	2.20	—	low
Tyler Glasnow	San Francisco GiantsSF	11	2.14	UNDER 2.5· 65%	med
Zac Thornton	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	13	2.14	UNDER 2.5· 65% +7%	med
Clay Holmes	Cincinnati RedsCIN	16	2.04	UNDER 2.5· 63% +7%	med
Ranger Suarez	Tampa Bay RaysTB	26	2.02	UNDER 2.5· 67% +7%	med
Randy Dobnak	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	11	2.01	UNDER 2.5· 58% +7%	med
Tyler Phillips	San Diego PadresSD	18	1.96	UNDER 2.5· 64% +7%	med
Eduardo Rodriguez	New York YankeesNYY	30	1.95	UNDER 2.5· 55% +7%	med
Chase Burns	Chicago CubsCHC	28	1.86	OVER 0.5· 69% +7%	med
Cade Cavalli	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	31	1.83	UNDER 1.5· 51% +7%	med
Dylan Cease	Texas RangersTEX	28	1.73	UNDER 1.5· 53% +7%	med
Kyle Leahy ⚠	Washington NationalsWSH	28	1.68	—	low
Nick Pivetta ⚠	Miami MarlinsMIA	6	1.61	—	low
Daniel Espino ⚠	AthleticsATH	1	0.67	—	low

BAT

Batter Props

144 batters across 11 posted lineups, best chances first. 1+ Hit and 1+ RBI are the odds he gets at least one tonight. The three marked PICK are our strongest 1+ Hit calls and are graded into the track record. Lineups post 3–4 hours before first pitch, so late games may still be missing.

Batter	Team	#	Opp SP	vs	Hit%	1+ HitHit	1+ RBIRBI
PICK Jackson Chourio	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	1	Cade Povich	RHP	23.8%	72%	38%
PICK Steven Kwan	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	1	Mason Barnett	RHP	23.9%	72%	27%
PICK Alec Burleson	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	3	Cade Cavalli	RHP	25.2%	71%	40%
Nick Gonzales	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	5	Randy Dobnak	RHP	25.7%	71%	33%
Jake McCarthy	Colorado RockiesCOL	1	Bryan Woo	RHP	24.2%	71%	37%
Drake Baldwin	Atlanta BravesATL	1	Peter Lambert	RHP	24.3%	71%	40%
Randal Grichuk	Chicago White SoxCWS	3	Andrew Sears	LHP	24.6%	71%	35%
Yandy Díaz	Tampa Bay RaysTB	1	Ranger Suarez	LHP	23.4%	70%	38%
Luis Arraez	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	4	Zac Thornton	LHP	24.5%	70%	33%
Brice Turang	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	2	Cade Povich	RHP	23.3%	70%	40%
TJ Rumfield	Colorado RockiesCOL	3	Bryan Woo	RHP	24.6%	70%	34%
Brandon Lowe	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	2	Randy Dobnak	RHP	23.5%	70%	41%
Michael Harris II	Atlanta BravesATL	4	Peter Lambert	RHP	25.0%	70%	38%
Pete Crow-Armstrong	Chicago CubsCHC	1	Chase Burns	RHP	23.3%	69%	40%
Henry Bolte	AthleticsATH	1	Daniel Espino	RHP	22.9%	69%	29%
William Contreras	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	3	Cade Povich	RHP	23.2%	69%	38%
Bobby Witt Jr.	Kansas City RoyalsKC	2	Paul Skenes	RHP	23.4%	69%	32%
Kyle Schwarber	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	1	Zac Thornton	LHP	22.4%	69%	38%
Pete Alonso	Baltimore OriolesBAL	2	Dustin May	RHP	22.8%	69%	41%
Wilyer Abreu	Boston Red SoxBOS	4	Ian Seymour	LHP	23.7%	69%	35%
Chase Meidroth	Chicago White SoxCWS	5	Andrew Sears	LHP	24.2%	69%	32%
Miguel Vargas	Chicago White SoxCWS	1	Andrew Sears	LHP	22.4%	69%	36%
Chase DeLauter	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	3	Mason Barnett	RHP	23.1%	69%	35%
Konnor Griffin	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	1	Randy Dobnak	RHP	22.3%	68%	33%

★

Milestone Watch

Players closing in on a season or career mark. Anyone playing tonight is flagged first; lineups post a few hours before first pitch.

Reached since the last card: Jeremy Peña 20 HR · Yordan Alvarez 40 HR · Austin Warren 100th career strikeout

Player	Team	Milestone	Has	NeedsNeed
TONIGHT Bryan Reynolds	PITPIT	150 hits	149	1
TONIGHT José Ramírez	CLECLE	1,000th career RBI	998	2
TONIGHT Eugenio Suárez	CINCIN	350th career home run	349	1
TONIGHT Bryce Harper	PHIPHI	150 hits	148	2
TONIGHT Matt Olson	ATLATL	150 hits	148	2
TONIGHT Yandy Díaz	TBTB	175 hits	173	2
TONIGHT Brayan Rocchio	CLECLE	20 SB	19	1
TONIGHT Brice Turang	MILMIL	20 HR	19	1
TONIGHT Brice Turang	MILMIL	20 SB	19	1
TONIGHT Caleb Durbin	BOSBOS	20 SB	19	1
TONIGHT Matt Olson	ATLATL	40 HR	39	1
TONIGHT Michael Busch	CHCCHC	20 HR	19	1
TONIGHT Miguel Vargas	CWSCWS	20 SB	19	1
TONIGHT Oneil Cruz	PITPIT	20 HR	19	1
TONIGHT Salvador Perez	KCKC	20 HR	19	1
TONIGHT Travis Bazzana	CLECLE	20 SB	19	1
TONIGHT Trea Turner	PHIPHI	20 HR	19	1
TONIGHT Brandon Nimmo	TEXTEX	150 hits	147	3
TONIGHT Chase Meidroth	CWSCWS	150 hits	147	3
TONIGHT Mauricio Dubón	ATLATL	150 hits	147	3
TONIGHT Michael Conforto	CHCCHC	1,000th career hit	992	8
TONIGHT Michael Harris II	ATLATL	100th career home run	98	2
TONIGHT Miguel Vargas	CWSCWS	100 runs	98	2
TONIGHT Cade Cavalli	WSHWSH	200 K	194	6 proj 6.5 K
TONIGHT William Contreras	MILMIL	150 hits	146	4
TONIGHT Jo Adell	CLECLE	100th career home run	97	3
TONIGHT Trea Turner	PHIPHI	100 runs	97	3
TONIGHT Brice Turang	MILMIL	150 hits	145	5
TONIGHT Trea Turner	PHIPHI	150 hits	145	5
TONIGHT Bobby Witt Jr.	KCKC	20 HR	18	2
TONIGHT Bryce Harper	PHIPHI	30 HR	28	2
TONIGHT Corey Seager	TEXTEX	20 HR	18	2
TONIGHT Dansby Swanson	CHCCHC	20 HR	18	2
TONIGHT Elly De La Cruz	CINCIN	30 HR	28	2
TONIGHT Hunter Goodman	COLCOL	40 HR	38	2
TONIGHT Jordan Walker	STLSTL	30 HR	28	2
TONIGHT Matt McLain	CINCIN	20 SB	18	2
TONIGHT Ronald Acuña Jr.	ATLATL	20 HR	18	2
TONIGHT Ryan O'Hearn	PITPIT	20 HR	18	2
TONIGHT Samuel Basallo	BALBAL	20 HR	18	2
TONIGHT Zack Gelof	ATHATH	20 HR	18	2
TONIGHT Bobby Witt Jr.	KCKC	150 hits	144	6
TONIGHT Brandon Lowe	PITPIT	150 hits	144	6
TONIGHT Chandler Simpson	TBTB	175 hits	169	6
TONIGHT Pete Crow-Armstrong	CHCCHC	40-40 season	44 HR / 37 SB	3 SB
TONIGHT Wilyer Abreu	BOSBOS	150 hits	144	6
TONIGHT Ian Happ	CHCCHC	200th career home run	196	4
TONIGHT José Ramírez	CLECLE	300th career home run	296	4
TONIGHT Sean Murphy	ATLATL	100th career home run	96	4
TONIGHT Brice Turang	MILMIL	100 runs	96	4
TONIGHT Junior Caminero	TBTB	100 RBI	96	4
TONIGHT Matt Olson	ATLATL	100 runs	96	4
TONIGHT Drake Baldwin	ATLATL	150 hits	143	7
TONIGHT Ozzie Albies	ATLATL	150 hits	143	7
TONIGHT Tyler Glasnow	LADLAD	50th career win	47	3
TONIGHT Austin Riley	ATLATL	20 HR	17	3
TONIGHT Bryan Reynolds	PITPIT	20 HR	17	3
TONIGHT Dansby Swanson	CHCCHC	20 SB	17	3
TONIGHT Ezequiel Duran	TEXTEX	20 HR	17	3
TONIGHT JJ Wetherholt	STLSTL	20 HR	17	3
TONIGHT Jackson Chourio	MILMIL	20 SB	17	3
TONIGHT Kyle Schwarber	PHIPHI	100 RBI	95	5
TONIGHT Lawrence Butler	ATHATH	20 HR	17	3
TONIGHT Nathaniel Lowe	CLECLE	20 HR	17	3
TONIGHT Oneil Cruz	PITPIT	30 SB	27	3
TONIGHT Pete Alonso	BALBAL	40 HR	37	3
TONIGHT Pete Crow-Armstrong	CHCCHC	40 SB	37	3
TONIGHT Pete Crow-Armstrong	CHCCHC	175 hits	167	8
TONIGHT Pete Crow-Armstrong	CHCCHC	120 runs	115	5
TONIGHT William Contreras	MILMIL	20 HR	17	3
TONIGHT Wyatt Langford	TEXTEX	20 HR	17	3
Manny Machado	SDSD	400th career home run	397	3
Zack Wheeler	PHIPHI	2,000th career strikeout	1,997	3
Kenley Jansen	DETDET	500th career save	496	4
Francisco Lindor	NYMNYM	300th career home run	299	1
Blake Snell	LADLAD	1,500th career strikeout	1,492	8
Carlos Rodón	NYYNYY	1,500th career strikeout	1,492	8
CJ Abrams	WSHWSH	30-30 season	30 HR / 29 SB	1 SB
Jesús Luzardo	PHIPHI	1,000th career strikeout	996	4
Steven Matz	TBTB	1,000th career strikeout	996	4
Kris Bubic	LADLAD	500th career strikeout	497	3
Christian Walker	HOUHOU	200th career home run	199	1
Rhys Hoskins	CLECLE	200th career home run	199	1
Willson Contreras	BOSBOS	200th career home run	199	1
Carlos Estévez	KCKC	500th career strikeout	494	6
Carlos Rodón	NYYNYY	100th career win	99	1
JP Sears	SDSD	500th career strikeout	491	9
Mookie Betts	LADLAD	200th career stolen base	198	2
Gregory Soto	PITPIT	500th career strikeout	484	16
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	LADLAD	500th career strikeout	484	16
Cole Winn	TEXTEX	100th career strikeout	98	2

Extra Plays

The best outs and earned-run numbers on the board, same engine as the strikeout model. These sit outside the two-pick card above — they are newer markets for us, and we keep the opponent adjustment small on purpose, because this season's team splits are still mostly random.

Connor Prielipp OVER 14.5 outs

vs Los Angeles Angels · 15.8 base × 1.001 matchup → 15.4

65%fair odds -189

Peter Lambert OVER 15.5 outs

vs Atlanta Braves · 16.6 base × 0.996 matchup → 16.3

63%fair odds -170

Ranger Suarez OVER 15.5 outs

vs Tampa Bay Rays · 16.5 base × 1.016 matchup → 16.3

59%fair odds -146

Randy Dobnak UNDER 2.5 ER

vs Pittsburgh Pirates · we project 2.01 earned runs

68%fair odds -212

Ranger Suarez UNDER 2.5 ER

vs Tampa Bay Rays · we project 2.02 earned runs

68%fair odds -210

Clay Holmes UNDER 2.5 ER

vs Cincinnati Reds · we project 2.04 earned runs

67%fair odds -206

W-L

Track Record

Every pick we post gets graded the next day against the box score — wins, losses and all — see every one →

All picks 130-81 (62%) · parlay 3-13 · -9.07 units at $100 a card

9/17 8-69/16 7-89/15 9-59/14 11-39/13 9-59/12 8-59/11 11-39/10 8-5

Newest first. Past results do not predict future outcomes.

Every past card (17)

Our own projections · odds shown are fair value with no house cut — not sportsbook prices
Analysis only · not gambling advice · 21+
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