Tonight's Card

Sep 10 Prop Picks

Thu · Sep 10, 2026 5-game slate · 10 starters Strikeouts · outs · earned runs · batters

Live record · since Sep 2 · 8 slates

62-46Picks graded

57%Hit rate

-6.1uUnits · $100/card

1-7Parlay record

Fair prices, not sportsbook prices. No house cut is built in, so your book will pay a little less — shop your own line before betting.

O+U

Tonight's Two

Our two biggest edges over the sportsbook's own price — one over, one under, from whichever market (strikeouts, outs, earned runs or hits) it shows up in. The line and the Mkt Edge are measured against a real book (pinnacle+bovada) wherever one has posted; where none has, we fall back to the nearest half-point line.

Tonight's Two fair odds +165 · 2.65×

Under
            Outs
            Jared Jones
            vs Chicago White Sox
Our Proj13.6 outs
PINNACLE15.5 outs
Mkt Edge+7%
Win %63%
Fair Odds-172
4.63 IP/start → 13.8 outs, matchup ×1.002, road -0.2 → 13.6

Under
            Strikeouts
            Ryan Feltner
            vs New York Yankees
Our Proj4.1 Ks
PINNACLE4.5 Ks
Mkt Edge+7%
Win %60%
Fair Odds-149
own 16.2% K rate × New York Yankees 23.9% vs RHP → adjusted 18.1%

$100 bet · fair odds

$264.76

if both picks hit

+$164.76 profit

Fair-odds payout, not a sportsbook payout. Each pick is priced at the chance we give it (-172 Jones × -149 Feltner → +165 together, decimal 2.65). A real book takes its cut and will pay less than this.

PROPS EDGE · 2026-09-10 · our projection

OVERUNDERtoo closehighest-confidence pick+6% edge over the booktap a row to star it

Strikeouts

All 10 probable starters, most projected strikeouts first — Proj K is tonight's number, Pick is the side against the nearest half-point line.

How we get the number

K% is how often the pitcher strikes a batter out over his own starts. Opp K% is how often that lineup strikes out against this hand. Adj K% blends the two — a strikeout pitcher facing a contact lineup lands between them, not at either extreme. Multiply that by BF/St (batters he faces in a typical start) and you get Proj K. Win chance comes from how far past the line the projection sits, scored against 2,130 completed 2026 starts, so it reflects how often we've actually been right by that margin — not a textbook curve.

PitcherSP	Opp	St	K%	Opp K%	Adj K%	BF/St	Proj KK	Pick	Confidence
Zack Wheeler	Houston AstrosHOU	24	28.5%	21.9%	28.8%	22.8	6.6	UNDER 6.5· 52%	high
Jacob deGrom	Seattle MarinersSEA	27	29.7%	22.4%	31.3%	21.6	6.5	UNDER 6.5· 54% +4%	high
Logan Gilbert	Texas RangersTEX	28	26.6%	22.1%	27.8%	23.6	6.5	UNDER 6.5· 49% +7%	high
Jared Jones	Chicago White SoxCWS	17	27.3%	23.1%	29.1%	19.6	5.8	OVER 5.5· 51% -8%	high
Max Fried	Colorado RockiesCOL	17	24.3%	24.5%	26.2%	21.6	5.5	UNDER 5.5· 54% +2%	high
Cristian Javier ⚠	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	9	21.2%	22.0%	21.5%	18.6	4.1	—	low
Ryan Feltner	New York YankeesNYY	21	16.2%	23.9%	18.1%	21.9	4.1	UNDER 4.5· 60% +7%	high
Nick Martinez	Atlanta BravesATL	27	15.9%	21.9%	16.2%	23.8	3.9	OVER 3.5· 55%	high
Martín Pérez	Tampa Bay RaysTB	23	16.7%	18.9%	13.8%	21.3	3.0	OVER 2.5· 55%	high
Hagen Smith ⚠	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	0	—%	—%	—%	—	—	—	low

Hits Allowed

Hits we expect each starter to give up. Same idea as strikeouts, flipped — Proj H is the number, the Pick is the side against the nearest half-point line.

How we get the number

Hit% is how often a batter gets a hit off this pitcher over his own starts. Opp Hit% is how often that lineup gets a hit against this hand. Adj Hit% blends the two, then nudges for the ballpark — hit and run environments move together. Multiply by BF/St (batters faced in a typical start) and you get Proj H. Win chance is scored the same way as the other markets, against completed 2026 starts.

PitcherSP	Opp	St	Hit%	Opp Hit%	Adj Hit%	BF/St	Proj HH	Pick	Confidence
Nick Martinez	Atlanta BravesATL	27	22.47%	22.07%	22.9%	23.8	5.52	UNDER 5.5· 53%	med
Ryan Feltner	New York YankeesNYY	21	22.71%	21.31%	22.35%	21.9	5.12	UNDER 5.5· 59% +4%	med
Zack Wheeler	Houston AstrosHOU	24	21.01%	21.76%	21.31%	22.8	4.88	OVER 4.5· 54%	med
Martín Pérez	Tampa Bay RaysTB	23	21.36%	21.91%	21.68%	21.3	4.71	OVER 4.5· 51%	med
Logan Gilbert	Texas RangersTEX	28	21.32%	21.6%	19.79%	23.6	4.6	UNDER 4.5· 51% -4%	med
Max Fried	Colorado RockiesCOL	17	20.92%	21.93%	21.26%	21.6	4.46	UNDER 4.5· 54% -1%	med
Cristian Javier ⚠	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	9	22.26%	21.79%	22.62%	18.6	4.34	—	low
Jared Jones	Chicago White SoxCWS	17	21.63%	21.53%	21.5%	19.6	4.29	UNDER 4.5· 57% -2%	med
Jacob deGrom	Seattle MarinersSEA	27	21.59%	21.6%	20.03%	21.6	4.18	OVER 3.5· 60% +3%	med
Hagen Smith ⚠	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	0	—%	—%	—%	—	—	—	low

OUT

Outs Recorded

How deep into the game we expect each starter to go, in outs (3 outs = 1 inning). Blank where his outings are too up-and-down to price.

How we get the number

IP/St is innings per start this year, and Base is that turned into outs with recent form weighted heavier. Matchup is the opponent nudge — how much traffic that lineup puts on and how many pitches it makes him throw. It is deliberately a small adjustment: team on-base splits this season are mostly random, so we lean on the pitcher's own workload rather than invent a matchup edge the data doesn't support.

PitcherSP	Opp	St	IP/St	Base	Matchup	Proj OutsOuts	Pick	Confidence
Nick Martinez	Atlanta BravesATL	27	5.93	18.0	×0.997 -0.5	17.4	OVER 17.5· 51%	high
Logan Gilbert	Texas RangersTEX	28	5.89	17.0	×1.007 -0.5	16.6	UNDER 17.5· 50% +7%	high
Zack Wheeler	Houston AstrosHOU	24	5.68	16.6	×1.002 -0.3	16.4	OVER 16.5· 51%	high
Max Fried	Colorado RockiesCOL	17	5.63	16.5	×1.009 -0.3	16.4	OVER 16.5· 51% +1%	high
Martín Pérez	Tampa Bay RaysTB	23	5.01	14.9	×1.017 +0.3	15.5	OVER 15.5· 52%	high
Jacob deGrom	Seattle MarinersSEA	27	5.31	15.6	×1.002 -0.5	15.1	UNDER 16.5· 56% +7%	high
Ryan Feltner	New York YankeesNYY	21	4.89	14.9	×0.995 +0.0	14.9	UNDER 15.5· 55% -4%	high
Jared Jones	Chicago White SoxCWS	17	4.63	13.8	×1.002 -0.2	13.6	UNDER 15.5· 63% +7%	high
Cristian Javier ⚠	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	9	4.03	12.8	×1.008 +0.4	—	—	low
Hagen Smith ⚠	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	0	—	—	—	—	—	low

Earned Runs

Runs we expect each starter to give up. Priced against a whole-run line (1.5 / 2.5 / 3.5). This is the noisiest of the three markets, so confidence never goes above med.

How we get the number

ER Rate is earned runs per batter faced across his starts, pulled toward the league average when he hasn't thrown much — a small sample shouldn't get treated like a full season. Opp× scales it by how well that lineup scores against this hand, Park× by the ballpark. Multiply through by batters faced and you get Proj ER. We price it as a count that can blow up — one bad inning is most of a bad night — rather than assuming runs trickle in evenly.

PitcherSP	Opp	St	ER Rate	Opp×	Park×	Proj ERER	Pick	Confidence
Ryan Feltner	New York YankeesNYY	21	13.69%	×0.984	×1.01	3.12	UNDER 3.5· 62% +7%	med
Cristian Javier ⚠	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	9	13.46%	×0.980	×1.02	2.58	—	low
Jared Jones	Chicago White SoxCWS	17	11.21%	×0.997	×1.01	2.25	OVER 1.5· 58% +2%	med
Logan Gilbert	Texas RangersTEX	28	10.33%	×0.974	×0.94	2.20	OVER 1.5· 57% +1%	med
Zack Wheeler	Houston AstrosHOU	24	9.38%	×0.996	×1.02	2.18	UNDER 2.5· 65%	med
Nick Martinez	Atlanta BravesATL	27	8.91%	×0.998	×1.01	2.17	UNDER 2.5· 65%	med
Jacob deGrom	Seattle MarinersSEA	27	10.72%	×0.988	×0.94	2.08	OVER 1.5· 54% +2%	med
Martín Pérez	Tampa Bay RaysTB	23	9.30%	×0.982	×1.01	2.00	OVER 1.5· 52%	med
Max Fried	Colorado RockiesCOL	17	8.83%	×0.990	×1.01	1.85	UNDER 1.5· 52% +4%	med
Hagen Smith ⚠	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	0	—	—	—	—	—	low

BAT

Batter Props

54 batters across 3 posted lineups, best chances first. 1+ Hit and 1+ RBI are the odds he gets at least one tonight. The three marked PICK are our strongest 1+ Hit calls and are graded into the track record. Lineups post 3–4 hours before first pitch, so late games may still be missing.

How we get the number

Hit% is how often this batter gets a hit against pitchers of this hand. Adj folds in how many hits tonight's starter actually gives up. PA is how many times he should come to the plate, from his spot in the order — and we split those trips between the starter and the bullpen using how deep we expect the starter to go, because the reliever he faces in the 8th is a different problem than the starter he faces in the 1st. RBI is priced to allow for bunching: a three-run homer is one plate appearance, not three.

Batter	Team	#	Opp SP	vs	Hit%	Adj	PA	1+ HitHit	1+ RBIRBI
PICK Luis Arraez	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	4	Cristian Javier	RHP	26.0%	25.7%	4.35	73%	30%
PICK Drake Baldwin	Atlanta BravesATL	1	Nick Martinez	RHP	24.4%	24.3%	4.65	73%	39%
PICK Michael Harris II	Atlanta BravesATL	4	Nick Martinez	RHP	25.5%	25.4%	4.35	72%	37%
Yandy Díaz	Tampa Bay RaysTB	1	Martín Pérez	LHP	23.9%	22.7%	4.65	71%	38%
Yordan Alvarez	Houston AstrosHOU	2	Zack Wheeler	RHP	24.5%	22.9%	4.55	71%	39%
Jeremy Peña	Houston AstrosHOU	1	Zack Wheeler	RHP	24.0%	22.4%	4.65	70%	35%
Bryce Harper	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	3	Cristian Javier	RHP	23.6%	23.3%	4.45	69%	38%
Trea Turner	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	2	Cristian Javier	RHP	23.1%	22.8%	4.55	69%	33%
Ronald Acuña Jr.	Atlanta BravesATL	2	Nick Martinez	RHP	22.9%	22.9%	4.55	69%	37%
Mauricio Dubón	Atlanta BravesATL	5	Nick Martinez	RHP	24.2%	24.1%	4.25	69%	32%
Ryan Vilade	Tampa Bay RaysTB	2	Martín Pérez	LHP	23.4%	22.2%	4.55	69%	38%
Ezequiel Duran	Texas RangersTEX	3	Logan Gilbert	RHP	23.5%	22.3%	4.45	68%	37%
Chandler Simpson	Tampa Bay RaysTB	5	Martín Pérez	LHP	24.3%	23.0%	4.25	68%	28%
Dominic Canzone	Seattle MarinersSEA	3	Jacob deGrom	RHP	23.1%	22.2%	4.45	68%	37%
Randy Arozarena	Seattle MarinersSEA	2	Jacob deGrom	RHP	22.6%	21.7%	4.55	68%	35%
Brandon Marsh	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	7	Cristian Javier	RHP	24.4%	24.1%	4.05	68%	31%
Junior Caminero	Tampa Bay RaysTB	3	Martín Pérez	LHP	23.0%	21.8%	4.45	67%	32%
Victor Mesa Jr.	Tampa Bay RaysTB	4	Martín Pérez	LHP	23.2%	22.0%	4.35	67%	32%
Matt Olson	Atlanta BravesATL	3	Nick Martinez	RHP	22.0%	22.0%	4.45	67%	36%
Joc Pederson	Texas RangersTEX	1	Logan Gilbert	RHP	21.7%	20.6%	4.65	67%	36%
Julio Rodríguez	Seattle MarinersSEA	5	Jacob deGrom	RHP	22.7%	21.7%	4.25	66%	31%
J.P. Crawford	Seattle MarinersSEA	1	Jacob deGrom	RHP	20.8%	19.9%	4.65	65%	31%
Kyle Schwarber	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	1	Cristian Javier	RHP	20.4%	20.1%	4.65	65%	39%
Justin Crawford	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	8	Cristian Javier	RHP	23.5%	23.3%	3.95	65%	28%

Extra Plays

The best outs and earned-run numbers on the board, same engine as the strikeout model. These sit outside the two-pick card above — they are newer markets for us, and we keep the opponent adjustment small on purpose, because this season's team splits are still mostly random.

Nick Martinez OVER 16.5 outs

vs Atlanta Braves · 18.0 base × 0.997 matchup → 17.4

62%fair odds -166

Zack Wheeler OVER 15.5 outs

vs Houston Astros · 16.6 base × 1.002 matchup → 16.4

61%fair odds -154

Max Fried OVER 15.5 outs

vs Colorado Rockies · 16.5 base × 1.009 matchup → 16.4

60%fair odds -148

Jacob deGrom UNDER 2.5 ER

vs Seattle Mariners · we project 2.08 earned runs

67%fair odds -200

Nick Martinez UNDER 2.5 ER

vs Atlanta Braves · we project 2.17 earned runs

65%fair odds -184

Zack Wheeler UNDER 2.5 ER

vs Houston Astros · we project 2.18 earned runs

65%fair odds -182

W-L

Track Record

Every pick we post gets graded the next day against the box score — wins, losses and all — see every one →

All picks 62-46 (57%) · parlay 1-7 · -6.13 units at $100 a card

9/9 7-89/8 9-39/7 9-69/6 12-39/5 6-99/4 5-79/3 6-69/2 8-4

Newest first. Past results do not predict future outcomes.

Every past card (9)

Our own projections · odds shown are fair value with no house cut — not sportsbook prices
Analysis only · not gambling advice · 21+
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