Wednesday's card leans on two under-the-outs-line starters, three earned run/strikeout/hits unders and overs from the extra-pick pitchers, and a trio of San Francisco-St. Louis bats all lined up for 1+ hit. Below is what the model sees in each matchup, plus the roster and injury news around today's four featured games.
Key takeaways
- Jared Jones (under 15.5 outs, vs. Milwaukee) and Matthew Liberatore (under 16.5 outs, vs. San Francisco) are both projected below their outs lines with win probabilities above 59%.
- Max Scherzer projects to 2.84 earned runs against a 1.5 line, and Merrill Kelly projects to 3.9 strikeouts against a 4.5 line, in two of today's extra picks.
- Three bats from the Giants-Cardinals finale — Alec Burleson, Bryce Eldridge and Jonah Cox — are all on the card for 1+ hit at win probabilities above 71%.
- St. Louis activated 2B JJ Wetherholt this week, and Miami lost RF Owen Caissie and RHP Pete Fairbanks to the injured list ahead of its series finale in Arizona.
Jared Jones: under 15.5 outs vs. Milwaukee
Jones starts tonight at 6:40 PM ET at PNC Park (partly cloudy, 82°, wind 5 mph and calm) as Pittsburgh (75-76) hosts Milwaukee (94-57) in game 2 of their three-game set, with the Brewers sitting first in the NL Central, per ESPN's series preview. The model projects 14.4 outs against the 15.5-outs line, a 62.0% win probability, fair odds of -163, and a 3.4% market edge. Jones's strikeout rate of 28.0% is above the league average of 21.9% (+6.1 pts), while Milwaukee's strikeout rate vs. right-handers, 21.8%, is about equal to the league average of 21.9% (-0.1 pts). Supporting numbers: a 4.10 ERA, 10.51 K/9 and 4.76 IP per start across 18 starts, a projected 5.7 strikeouts, and 6 days of rest since his September 10 outing — he's struck out 35 over his last 5 starts (26.7 IP). ESPN's Wednesday fantasy notes flagged Jones as a streaming option for the day's slate.
Matthew Liberatore: under 16.5 outs vs. San Francisco
Liberatore starts this afternoon at 1:15 PM ET at Busch Stadium (cloudy, 91°, wind 4 mph in from right field) as St. Louis (75-78) closes out the finale of its series with San Francisco (64-89), per ESPN's preview. He's projected for 15.3 outs against the 16.5-outs line, a 59.8% win probability, fair odds of -149, and a 7.0% market edge. His strikeout rate of 24.1% is above the league average of 22.6% (+1.5 pts), while the Giants' strikeout rate vs. left-handers, 23.5%, is above the league average of 22.6% (+0.9 pts). Supporting numbers: a 5.53 ERA, 9.17 K/9 and 4.94 IP per start across 29 starts, a projected 5.4 strikeouts, and 5 days of rest since his September 11 outing — 30 strikeouts over his last 5 starts (24.3 IP). St. Louis activated rookie 2B JJ Wetherholt from the 10-day injured list Wednesday morning, part of a roster shuffle that also saw the club designate 3B Ramón Urías for assignment.
Max Scherzer: over 1.5 earned runs vs. Detroit
Scherzer starts this afternoon at 3:07 PM ET at Rogers Centre (partly cloudy, 74°, wind 5 mph out to left field) as Toronto (75-77) closes out its finale against Detroit (72-79), per ESPN's preview. The model projects 2.84 earned runs against the 1.5 line, a 66.1% win probability and a 7.0% market edge. His strikeout rate of 18.2% is below the league average of 21.9% (-3.7 pts), while Detroit's strikeout rate vs. right-handers, 22.5%, is above the league average of 21.9% (+0.6 pts). Supporting numbers: a 6.38 ERA, 6.78 K/9 and 4.51 IP per start across 15 starts, and 5 days of rest since his September 11 outing — 20 strikeouts over his last 5 starts (26.7 IP). Toronto recalled LF Davis Schneider and LHP Brendan Cellucci from Buffalo this week and placed RF Rudy Martin Jr. on the 10-day injured list with a left hamstring strain, while Detroit activated RHP Keider Montero, Wednesday's opposing starter, from the paternity list.
Merrill Kelly: under 4.5 strikeouts vs. Miami
Kelly starts tonight at 9:40 PM ET at Chase Field, where the roof is closed and conditions are calm, as Arizona (80-72) and Miami (75-77) play the finale of a series that decides the set, per ESPN's preview. The model projects 3.9 strikeouts against the 4.5 line, a 62.9% win probability and a 7.0% market edge. Kelly's strikeout rate of 16.4% is below the league average of 21.9% (-5.5 pts), while Miami's strikeout rate vs. right-handers, 21.5%, is below the league average of 21.9% (-0.4 pts). Supporting numbers: a 4.97 ERA, 6.04 K/9 and 5.63 IP per start across 27 starts, and 5 days of rest since his September 11 outing — 20 strikeouts over his last 5 starts (27.0 IP). ESPN's Wednesday fantasy notes also listed Kelly among the day's streaming options.
Ryan Gusto: under 5.5 hits vs. Arizona
Gusto starts the same series finale for Miami, projected for 4.54 hits against the 5.5-hits line, a 62.7% win probability and a 7.0% market edge. His strikeout rate of 18.0% is below the league average of 21.9% (-3.9 pts), while Arizona's strikeout rate vs. right-handers, 20.3%, is below the league average of 21.9% (-1.6 pts). Supporting numbers: a 4.14 ERA, 7.47 K/9 and 4.9 IP per start across 16 starts, and 5 days of rest since his September 11 outing — 16 strikeouts over his last 5 starts (24.7 IP). Miami beat Arizona 4-2 in 11 innings on Tuesday on Esteury Ruiz's three-run double, a result ESPN wrote dealt a blow to Arizona's playoff hopes. Both rosters have turned over this week: Miami activated 2B Xavier Edwards from the injured list but placed RF Owen Caissie (lumbar stress reaction) and RHP Pete Fairbanks (right median nerve irritation) on the IL, while Arizona designated LF Lourdes Gurriel Jr. for assignment and claimed RF Jesús Sánchez off waivers from Toronto before activating him.
Alec Burleson: 1+ hit vs. San Francisco
Batting third for St. Louis against Giants RHP Anthony Molina in this afternoon's finale, Burleson is projected for 4.45 plate appearances with a 71.4% win probability and fair odds of -249 on 1+ hit. His hit rate per plate appearance, 24.7%, is above the league average of 22.7% (+2.0 pts), while Molina's hit rate allowed per plate appearance, 22.3%, is below the league average of 22.7% (-0.4 pts); the matchup-adjusted hit rate sits at 24.3%.
Bryce Eldridge: 1+ hit vs. St. Louis
Batting second for San Francisco against Liberatore, Eldridge is projected for 4.55 plate appearances with a 71.3% win probability and fair odds of -249 on 1+ hit. His hit rate per plate appearance, 23.3%, is above the league average of 22.7% (+0.6 pts), while Liberatore's hit rate allowed per plate appearance, 23.9%, is above the league average of 22.7% (+1.2 pts); the matchup-adjusted rate is 24.6%.
Jonah Cox: 1+ hit vs. St. Louis
Leading off for San Francisco in the same matchup against Liberatore, Cox is projected for 4.65 plate appearances with a 71.2% win probability and fair odds of -248 on 1+ hit. His hit rate per plate appearance, 22.8%, is about equal to the league average of 22.7% (+0.1 pts), and Liberatore's hit rate allowed per plate appearance, 23.9%, is above the league average of 22.7% (+1.2 pts); the matchup-adjusted rate for Cox is 24.0%.
Other roster moves around today's games
A few additional transactions touch today's featured rosters without changing the picks above. San Francisco selected the contract of LF Scott Bandura from Sacramento this week, adding outfield depth ahead of the Cardinals series, and Miami recalled RHP Bradley Blalock from Jacksonville to bolster its pitching staff for the Arizona finale.
The card and the track record
Props Edge is 115-67-0 on the season. The full 15-game card for Wednesday, September 16, including lines and picks beyond those covered here, is posted at the September 16 card, and every graded pick is logged on the results page. For background on how the projections are built, see how it works, along with the market breakdowns for strikeout props, outs props, fair odds and hit rate.
Every pick above is graded the next morning on the track record. New here? Start with how the model works.