An outs prop (sometimes recorded outs or priced as innings pitched) is a bet on how many outs the starting pitcher records before he's pulled. 3 outs = 1 inning, so a line of 16.5 is "more or less than 5.1 innings."
It's a bet on the hook, not the stuff
Two pitchers with identical ERAs can have very different outs projections because one team lets its starter go 100 pitches and the other pulls at 80. What moves the number:
- Pitch-count tendency of the team and manager.
- Days rest and recent workload — a short-rest start or a bounce-back from a long outing caps the ceiling.
- Bullpen state — a gassed pen buys the starter an extra inning; a fresh, rested pen with an off-day tomorrow pulls him early.
- Game script — a blowout in either direction ends a start fast.
- Traffic — walks and baserunners run the pitch count up even when runs don't score.
Worked example
Line: 16.5 outs (5.1+ innings)
Manager pulled him before the 6th in 4 of his last 5
→ the under deserves a look before the name value does
Manager pulled him before the 6th in 4 of his last 5
→ the under deserves a look before the name value does
The nightly card shows an outs projection for every startable pitcher.