Thursday's card leans on strikeout overs from two lefties working on extra rest, hit-total unders from a pair of starters, and three 1+ hit picks at the top of two lineups. Five pitcher props and three batter props are live across today's day-game getaway slate and tonight's games. Full numbers and lines are on today's card.
Key takeaways
- Strikeout overs: Justin Wrobleski (3.5 Ks at Cincinnati) and Kyle Harrison (4.5 Ks at Pittsburgh) are both projected well past their lines, backed by extra rest and above-average matchup strikeout rates.
- Hits-allowed unders from Michael King (6.5 at Colorado) and Nolan McLean (5.5 vs. Philadelphia), plus an earned-run under from Walbert Ureña (2.5 vs. Minnesota).
- Three 1+ hit picks: Fernando Tatis Jr. in the Padres-Rockies finale, and Jeremy Peña and Yordan Alvarez back-to-back at the top of Houston's order vs. Kansas City.
- Props Edge is 122-75 for the season. Track record at /results.html.
Justin Wrobleski: over 3.5 Ks vs. Cincinnati
The Dodgers close out their four-game series in Cincinnati today (12:40 PM ET, Great American Ball Park), and the model projects Wrobleski for 5.4 strikeouts against a 3.5 line — a 64.7% win probability with fair odds of -184 (7.0% edge vs. Pinnacle's no-vig line, the cap on our edge calculation). He carries a 3.78 ERA and 7.49 K/9 across 21 starts (6.35 IP per outing), and he's had extra time to recover — 11 days since his last start on September 6, with 26 strikeouts in 22.7 innings over his last five turns. His own strikeout rate, 21.3%, is below the league average of 22.6% (-1.3 pts), but Cincinnati's strikeout rate against left-handers, 24.3%, is above the league average of 22.6% (+1.7 pts), pushing the matchup-adjusted rate to 22.7%. Park factors are neutral (parkK 0.99) and weather is warm — 90°F, partly cloudy, wind 7 mph out to left. The Dodgers have restocked pitching depth this week, activating Kris Bubic off the 60-day injured list and recalling Landon Knack, Bobby Miller and Paul Gervase, without touching Wrobleski's rotation turn. More on how these strikeout numbers are built at strikeout props.
Michael King: under 6.5 hits vs. Colorado
San Diego wraps its series at Coors Field today (3:10 PM ET), and King projects for 5.42 hits allowed against a 6.5 line, a 63.9% win probability with fair odds of -177 (7.0% edge). He owns a 3.03 ERA and 7.61 K/9 over 30 starts, averaging 5.83 innings per outing, and is on regular rest (5 days, last start September 12) with 24 strikeouts in 32.7 innings over his last five starts. His strikeout rate, 20.6%, is below the league average of 21.8% (-1.2 pts), while Colorado's rate against right-handers, 21.9%, is about equal to the league average of 21.8% (+0.1 pts), leaving an adjusted rate of 20.1%. The pitching park factor here is neutral (parkK 0.97) despite Coors' reputation, and weather is mild — 74°F, cloudy, a light wind blowing in from left. San Diego got a lineup piece back this week with Ty France activated from the paternity list, while Colorado recalled DH Braxton Fulford from Albuquerque the following day.
Nolan McLean: under 5.5 hits vs. Philadelphia
The Mets open a four-game series with Philadelphia tonight (7:15 PM ET, Citi Field), and McLean projects for 4.56 hits allowed against a 5.5 line, a 62.9% win probability (7.0% edge). He owns a 3.24 ERA and 9.94 K/9 over 29 starts, working into the sixth on average (5.75 IP/GS), and struck out 25 over his last 30 innings across five outings. His strikeout rate, 24.5%, is above the league average of 21.8% (+2.7 pts), while Philadelphia's rate against right-handers, 21.9%, is about equal to the league average of 21.8% (+0.1 pts), for a matchup-adjusted rate of 24.8%. He's on 6 days' rest since his September 11 start. Park factors are neutral (parkR 0.96, parkK 1.01), with wind blowing out to left at 11 mph on a mild, partly cloudy night. Philadelphia opens this series missing a rotation piece — Jesús Luzardo went on the 15-day injured list September 15 with left shoulder inflammation, retroactive to the 12th — and both clubs shuffled their pitching staffs this week, with the Mets placing two pitchers on the injured list while recalling Xzavion Curry and Jefry Yan.
Kyle Harrison: over 4.5 Ks vs. Pittsburgh
Milwaukee (95-58) wraps its three-game series at Pittsburgh (76-77) today (12:35 PM ET, PNC Park), the finale. Harrison projects for 6.0 strikeouts against a 4.5 line, a 62.7% win probability (7.0% edge). He's missing bats at a 10.9 K/9 clip (3.98 ERA) but working shorter starts (4.81 IP/GS over 23 outings), so this pick leans on swing-and-miss stuff over length. His strikeout rate, 25.8%, is above the league average of 22.6% (+3.2 pts), and Pittsburgh's rate against left-handers, 25.0%, is also above the league average of 22.6% (+2.4 pts), pushing the matchup-adjusted rate to 28.4%. He's rested 11 days since his last start on September 6, with 23 strikeouts in 22.0 innings over his last five turns. Park factors are neutral (parkR 0.98, parkK 1.00), and weather is a mild 77°F, partly cloudy with a light wind out to left.
Walbert Ureña: under 2.5 ER vs. Minnesota
The Angels open a four-game series with Minnesota tonight (9:38 PM ET, Angel Stadium), and Ureña projects for 2.02 earned runs against a 2.5 line, a 67.7% win probability for the pick. He owns a 2.88 ERA and 8.58 K/9 over 25 starts (5.49 IP/GS), with 29 strikeouts in 29.7 innings over his last five outings, and is on 5 days' rest since pitching September 12. His strikeout rate, 22.9%, is above the league average of 21.8% (+1.1 pts), while Minnesota's rate against right-handers, 20.7%, is below the league average of 21.8% (-1.1 pts), for a mixed matchup that lands on an adjusted 21.7% rate. Park factors are neutral (parkR 1.01, parkK 1.00); no weather data was available for this game. Both clubs reshuffled ahead of the opener: Minnesota activated OF Austin Martin and recalled SS Ben Ross while placing SS Kaelen Culpepper on the injured list with a hamstring strain, and the Angels activated RHP Sam Bachman from the 15-day injured list while placing LHP Samy Natera Jr. on it with forearm inflammation.
Fernando Tatis Jr.: 1+ hit vs. Colorado
Batting leadoff for San Diego in today's Coors Field finale, Tatis is a 1+ hit pick at a 76.1% win probability with fair odds of -319, projected for 4.65 plate appearances against Rockies right-hander Tanner Gordon. His hit rate per plate appearance, 24.1%, is above the league average of 22.5% (+1.6 pts), and Gordon's hit rate allowed, 26.4%, is also above the league average of 22.5% (+3.9 pts), pushing the matchup-adjusted rate to 28.2%.
Jeremy Peña: 1+ hit vs. Kansas City
Houston closes out its series with Kansas City tonight (game 3 of 3, Daikin Park, roof closed), and Peña leads off against Royals right-hander Seth Lugo, projected for 4.65 plate appearances. It's a 75.1% win probability pick with fair odds of -301. His hit rate per PA, 24.3%, is above the league average of 22.5% (+1.8 pts), and Lugo's hit rate allowed, 24.9%, is also above the league average of 22.5% (+2.4 pts), for a matchup-adjusted rate of 26.9%. Houston got left fielder Taylor Trammell back from the paternity list today, and Kansas City activated third baseman Maikel Garcia from the injured list earlier this week, both lineups closer to full strength for the finale.
Yordan Alvarez: 1+ hit vs. Kansas City
Alvarez hits second behind Peña in that same Houston lineup, projected for 4.55 plate appearances against Lugo. It's a 74.7% win probability pick with fair odds of -296. His hit rate per PA, 24.5%, is above the league average of 22.5% (+2.0 pts), and Lugo's hit rate allowed, 24.9%, is also above the league average of 22.5% (+2.4 pts), for a matchup-adjusted rate of 27.2%. Alvarez is also part of the late-season conversation in ESPN's September awards watch.
The card and the track record
Every line, projection and matchup rate behind these eight picks is posted on today's card, with Props Edge sitting at 122-75 on the season — full history at /results.html. For a walkthrough of how the model builds projections and fair odds, see how it works.
Every pick above is graded the next morning on the track record. New here? Start with how the model works.