Edge decides whether to bet. Bankroll management decides how much — and it's what keeps a normal losing streak from being the end of it. None of this is financial advice; it's the standard framework.
Units
A unit is a fixed fraction of your bankroll, usually 1–2%. Talking in units instead of dollars keeps bet size proportional as the bankroll moves and makes records comparable. "Up 12 units" means something; "up $340" doesn't without the bankroll.
Three staking styles
- Flat — every bet is 1 unit. Boring, robust, hard to blow up. The right default for almost everyone.
- Percentage — always 1–2% of the current bankroll. Compounds on the way up, shrinks stakes on the way down.
- Kelly / fractional Kelly — stake scales with your estimated edge. Full Kelly is far too aggressive for props because your edge estimate is noisy; quarter-Kelly or a flat cap is saner.
Sizing for the cold streak you will have
A 55% bettor hits a 6-bet losing streak roughly every few weeks and an occasional 10-bet skid. At 1 unit flat that's −6 to −10 units — uncomfortable, survivable. At 5 units a pick it's a third of your roll gone on a completely normal run of variance. Size for the bad weeks, not the good ones.
Practical rules
- Pick a bankroll you can lose entirely without it mattering. That's your roll.
- 1 unit = 1% of it. Strong plays 1.5–2 units, never more.
- Don't chase. The stake plan doesn't change because you're down.
- Re-baseline units every month or two, not every day.
- Line shop — half a point on a strikeout line is a bigger edge than most picks.
The parlay and EV calculators will show you what a given stake actually returns at fair odds vs. the book's price.